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November 16, 2021
Stocks – PYPL, ROKU, DIS
Macro – SPY, DXY, FXE, FXY
- RTM- The Dollar Is Ripping
- RTM Exclusive: Disney May Be Poised For A Big Rebound
- RTM- The Dollar Continues To Soar As Rates Move High
- RTM Exclusive: Mosaic’s Stock May Head Higher As Fertilizer Prices Soar
- Tactical Update: Tighter Financial Conditions Are Coming, Which Is Not Good News For Stocks
- 3Q’21 MCM Thematic Growth Investor Letter
The S&P 500 finished higher by 39 bps to close just below the previous all-time high. The dollar index moved higher again, this time by more than 40 bps to close at 95.92.
S&P 500 (SPY)
My wave count for the S&P 500 was almost destroyed, but it managed to hold on. Yesterday, I noted that it was possible that wave B may have corrected too much of wave A and that we would worry about it later. Today’s price action confirmed my suspicions, with the futures nearly reaching the highs of November; however, it failed to overtake those highs. If this is to stick tomorrow, then what was completed was not a wave B but a wave 2. If we rally tomorrow, then the whole concept is broken, but if we drop, we should see it extend to around 4,575 over the next few days, and then more after that. We will wait for tomorrow for confirmation.
Euro
The euro has gone into a full meltdown mode, and I don’t see it stopping until it gets into the 1.11s.
Yen
The dollar is also breaking out against the Yen and can probably climb to around 118.
Roku (ROKU)
The chart for ROKU doesn’t look all that encouraging. Sure, its RSI is hovering around 30, but it probably needs one big flush down before there is a short-term rebound on its otherwise long-term deflating stock price. A drop to $228 would likely set the stock up for a nice short-term rebound.
PayPal (PYPL)
PayPal was up some today, and it looks like that gap is starting to get filled.
Disney (DIS)
There was a lot of heavy options betting in Disney yesterday, and it looks the stock is trying to bottom here around $157. It is enough to make me think that we will likely see a rebound back to $168 to $170 over the near term. (PREMIUM CONTENT – FIRST 2-WEEKS ARE FREE TO TRY – RTM Exclusive: Disney May Be Poised For A Big Rebound)
That’s all I have for today.
Mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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