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Stocks Rip Higher, Plus A Look At The Baker Brothers Top 5 Holdings


Stocks Rip Higher, Plus A Look At The Baker Brothers Top 5 Holdings

This stock market is getting frustrating. Yeah, I know the S&P 500 was up by 1.6 percent on the day, but the problem is that it closed at 2,656. In the midday commentary, I noted I was looking for a close above 2,660. I know it is only 4 points too but look at the trend line in the chart below.

S&P 500

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Technology

But here is the good news, the technology ETF, XLK broke above $66, and closed above $66. That is a victory! We can see that the XLK broke out on Apri 4, then retested the downtrend on April 6, and we have been higher since. If the breakout is for real, the the XLK could be on its way back to over $67. In fact, should the bulls juice get flowing, then a rise to $70 could be a genuine possibility.

techology

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Facebook

The majority of the XLK breakout should be to Facebook, finally rising above $161.5, after multiple failed its attempts. I’m guessing the market liked the testimony Mark Zuckerberg had to offer Congress. $166 will be a big test of how strong resistance is there.

facebook

JP Morgan

But not was all fabulous, because JP Morgan is still around $112.50, unable to break out, and earnings coming on Friday morning.

jpm


Amazon

Amazon tried to get above $1440 and is still cannot.

amazon


Biotech

Even biotechs had a healthy day, with the IBB rising by nearly 3 percent. It also broke out of that terrible downtrend it had been in since mid-March. That looks like a sextuple bottom in the IBB. Is there even such a thing? To my knowledge no, but there it is.

ibb

Biogen shares still look lousy.

biogen

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Baker Brothers

Even the Baker Brother’s top holdings are starting to go back up, barely. Their top holdings have performed lousy for some time as if some more prominent investors are betting against them, trying to keeping these stock down. Is that even possible? Look though. \

Alexion

Look at Alexion despite, the positive trial results, and a bunch of analysts upgrades this thing still can going. The average analyst price target on Ycharts is $158, 40 percent upside! What gives?

alexion


Incyte

Even Incyte bounced a bit today; it has been smoked since the negative trial results. This stock was once $150, over a year ago. Remember this was thought to be a buyout candidate back then.

incyte

Well BioMarin, not much to say here, but then again it has been that way for 2 years!

bmrn


S-GEN

The Seattle Genetics chart is not looking so hot, let’s say it is a tipping point and looks bearish.

sgen


Acadia

Finally Acadia, maybe, just maybe, the stock has puked out all the garbage and negativity, maybe. Thanks, CNN you did more damage than any sell-side analyst could have done.  Forget about filling gaps, let’s just get the stock stabilized, and hope the article didn’t destroy future sales. acadia

That’s it

Mike

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Tags: #stockmarket #bakerbrothers #acadia #biotech #alexion #technology #amazon #incyte #facebook  

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roku acadia biogen nvidia tesla

Roku’s Borrow Rate Rises, plus Biogen, Acadia, Tesla, and Nvidia


Roku’s Borrow Rate Rises, plus Biogen, Acadia, Tesla, and Nvidia

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The sell-off continued again with the S&P 500 trading down to roughly 2,646, where a sturdy level of support lies. So for now, it looks like we have held, and my guess is that we could have another few points to the downside at most, and I expect that we turn higher again.

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Biotech

Biotech shares have also found some support around $113.75 on the broader NASDAQ Biotech $IBB ETF. I drew in a downtrend, just because it seems prudent at this point to do so, from the peak at $119.25 to $115.70. The breakout from the past week seems convincing enough to me to think we begin moving higher.

biotech

The XBI also failed at resistance, and we have seen a retracement the past couple of days as well. For now, the setup is still bullish, and if the pullback extends to $93.60, it is not the end of the world.

biotech


Incyte

Incyte shares have pulled back too, bringing into question the breakout. But for now, the pullback appears to be a fill the gap scenario more than a then a failed breakout. Tomorrow will be telling.

incy


Regeneron

Regeneron shares have risen, but a big test looms at $352 with an intense level of resistance waiting, my guess resistance holds, and the stock moves lower.

regeneron


Acadia

Acadia shares fell hard in recent days but have held support at around $25, and I think that means shares could be headed back towards $26.5. My hunch or gut feeling, as we approach the depression data later this fall, we may see some buyers or traders looking to cover short ahead of the news, and that could help to lift the price. Short Interest stood at roughly 10.3 million as of February 28.

acadia

Biogen

Biogen shares also started to bounce a bit too. It would be a positive should this stock start rising again for the group.

biogen


Roku

Roku’s borrow rate continues to surge, according to TradeAlert, the rate is over 100 percent. Insane.

 

Roku

In fact, we can also see the implied volatility levels on the options are rising the further into the future one goes.  It would suggest that traders are betting on the volatility in the stock to continuing rising, and thus the risk in the stock is rising as well.

roku

As of the February 28, short-interest surged to 9.946 million shares, representing 63.5 percent of the float!  That is massive!

ROKU Short Interest Chart

ROKU Short Interest data by YCharts

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AMD

AMD shares are entering a danger zone, with the stock moving towards the cusp of a breakdown. The $11.20 technical support significant, a break below send the price towards the $10.50 region.

 

amd

Tesla

In the latest round of Tesla drama, CNBC is reporting that the company is churning out flawed parts. When I saw this, I was like “is the old news or new news?” That is right it was just at the end of January they reported batteries were being put together by hand.

I’m not sure what the delivery rates or how batteries are being assembled, I’m not even sure today’s news is even new? It sounds a lot like old news. But it doesn’t matter because the stock went down as a result.

Somebody made a big bet share would fall to about $250 bucks today, with the purchase of about 4,000 contracts of the April $250 puts. The notional value is only about $500k. Not huge, but undoubtedly interesting.


Nvidia

Today was RBC’s turn to raise its price target on NVIDIA, by an astonishing $5 to $285, talk about sticking your neck out there. But what I find interest is that price adjustment comes despite Nvidia potentially facing a notable slowdown in cryptocurrency benefits. But of course, they see a scenario of $12+ in earnings per share by the year the year 2021, on data center and gaming! That is nearly $2.50 ABOVE consensus of $9.50 per share. So why only give the stock 15 percent upside, if you are looking for earning to come in 26% higher than consensus. I don’t know. Sorry, I don’t get it.

Until Tomorrow! Good Luck!

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

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Tags: #sp500 #technology #roku #tesla #nvidia #biotech #biogen #incyte #acadia  

biotech technology nasdaq 100 stocks

Biotech, Technology, And NASDAQ 100 All Breakout – S&P 500 Back To 2,880?


Biotech, Technology, And NASDAQ 100 All Breakout – S&P 500 Back To 2,880?

Stocks were in rally mode again after a better than expected job report boosted the S&P 500 by about 1.5 percent. Any hesitation I have had over the past couple of day seems to indicate that the market, technology, and biotech stocks have now broken out, and that means they may have more upside potential from here.

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S&P 500 A Rise Back To 2,880

The S&P 500 is approaching the upper bound of the 2016 lows/Brexit trend line. When the index crossed over the trend back in late December, it resulted in the index surging all the way to 2,880. I think the same thing might happen again this time, as the fundamentals of the economy, the job market, and earnings continue to look very strong.

S&P 500


Biotech Stocks

The NASDAQ biotech ETF cleared two extremely critical levels over the past two days,  resistance at $111.50, and then again today $113.70. That could be a sign the ETF is set to rise all the way back to $119.25.

biotech

We see a similar confirmation in the iShares Biotech ETF (XBI) as well, with the potential for to rise to roughly $98.

One can see well the winners outweigh the losers, with only 2 of the top 25 stocks down.

biotech


Technology Stocks

Technology names broke out as well with the shares Technology ETF (XLK) soaring as well, quickly clearing the resistance level at $69.25.

technology

In fact, like the biotech stocks, the distribution of the technology sector is heavily favored to the winners, with only three stocks lower on the day.  technology

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Microsoft

Microsoft has cleared resistance at $95.70 and has made a new all-time high.

microsoft

Netflix

Netflix shares have broken out from its two day period of consolidation.

netflix

Nvidia

Nvidia shares have also broken above its downward trend as well. My guess is thing can run towards $260.

nvidia

Alphabet

Alphabet shares appear to be playing fill the gap and could make a run towards $1200

alphabet

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Nasdaq 100

Finally, the Nasdaq 100, has broken out.

nasdaq 100

That is it for a Friday.

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Tags: #sp500 #incyte #nektar #bitoech #technology #stocks #alkermes #costco #instacart #anlylam #nektar #incyte #nvidia 

 

 

 

biotech technology stocks

Biotech and Technology Stocks To Watch Amid A Sector Breakout And More


Biotech and Technology Stocks To Watch Amid A Sector Breakout And More

The stock market has felt like it has gone nowhere, and seems to have lost its sense of direction. It feels as though a tweet can send the market reeling lower, or soaring higher. But with all the ups and down, the S&P 500 stands today at the same place it stood on February 16, around 2,735 give or take a few points on either side. It has certainly felt more exhausting.

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Biotech Stocks

The biotech’s today performed better than I had anticipated, with the NASDAQ Biotech ETF ($IBB) closing at $112.62. The chart shows a hint of testing support at $111.50 on two occasions during the day, and it held. A positive for sure, and it makes today’s price action look more like a breakout now.

When looking at the breakdown of the ETF, the buying was well-distributed among the group. Nektar led the group higher; it figures Nektar would, I wrote an article the other day, saying it was due for a pullback.

biotech


Nektar

Nektar has all the signs of a stock looking like it was set to pullback, an RSI trending lower, while the stock is reaching new highs and waning volume. But to this point, the market has decided to prove me wrong.

nektar


Alnylam

Alnylam, despite rising today, still looks weak on the charts. The stock is trending lower, along with the RSI trending lower.

anlyam

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Incyte

Incyte looks like one that is on the verge of breaking out and should it rise above $93; it would signal a breakout, giving the stock the potential to increase to $102.

incyte


Alkermes

I have owned Alkermes for years, and suddenly the stock is starting to show signs of life, with a bit more volatility. I’m not sure how much of Alkermes’ rise has to do with the connection the market has given it to Nektar, because of their immuno-oncology drug candidates,  or if it has to do with the government focus on the opioid crisis. Alkermes makes Vivitrol, an injectable 30-day drug for opiate addiction. Vivitrol has a tiny market share that has been steadily growing. But Alkermes also has a lot on its plate in 2018 from its pipeline, with its depression candidate ‘5461 and a pending FDA approval. Head to head trial result on what was ALKS ‘8700 vs. Tecfidera in MS. ALKS ‘8700 was recently renamed after Alkermes signed a licensing deal with Biogen. Plus data on ALKS ‘3831 a drug for schizophrenia. With all these catalysts its is hard to decide what is driving price now, but my gut says the connection is with Nektar still.

alkmeres

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Technology

The Technology ETF ($XLK) closed at $69.25, and it is nearing a breakout as well, which would be nice, even though I recently wrote a piece warning of a potential double top formation. It is nice being wrong twice for sure, but hey I’m not perfect either.

technology

Activision

Activision continues to climb, and there has been very little that has seemed to slow the stock down since the start of the new year. In this case, it looks as though the trend is your friend.

activision


Nvidia

A name we haven’t mentioned in a while Nvidia has stalled since its quarterly results, which is surprising. But the chart has this negative look to it with that downtrend that has formed in recent weeks. It may be worth watching Nvidia, and seeing how it continues to trend before making a call on it.

nvidia

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Costco

Did you notice Costco’s results? The part I’m most interested in is the e-commerce growth. I have personally never liked shopping in Costco, especially where I live in Long Island, it is crazy in the store, and the parking lots is a disaster, with people fighting over spots. But I have started using their e-commerce product a bit. Now with Costco groceries through Instacart, I have become a big fan of Costco, because I can all the good deals without having to step foot in the store.

In the quarter Costco reported e-commerce sales of about $1.5 billion, which isn’t much, I know, but it was still 4.8 percent of total revenue, which came to $32.998 billion. The Instacart part of the business is new, so I would love to see what the growth is next quarter in this part of the company.

By the way, this was the Costco where I live at checkout on a Sunday morning at 11 am, back in December.

costco

Instacart

By the way, Instacart isn’t a public company, but if you go to the website Instacart.com, you can see what stores are associated with Instacart in your neighborhood, I like the service a lot. A personal shopper goes to the store to pick up your items that your order online, and through the app, you can chat with them, and they will send you pictures of the items, or let you know if the store is out of an item, and the replacement options. Very cool.

Ok, that is all, until tomorrow.

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Tags: #sp500 #incyte #nektar #bitoech #technology #stocks #alkermes #costco #instacart #anlylam #nektar #incyte #nvidia 

netflix

Netflix Subscriber Growth, GE’s Valuation, Incyte Rising, And Much More


Netflix Subscriber Growth, GE’s Valuation, Incyte Rising, And Much More

Stocks were mixed today for the most part, and the market was not nearly as confident today as it had been yesterday. Is this going just be a repeat of last week? With a one or two day rally, followed by a week of retracements? The charts would seem to suggest that we have a bit further to rise, perhaps to around 2,750. That would be the next test, the big question do we breakout and continue to rise, or do we fail and fall.

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S&P 500

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Gary Cohn Resigns

Then, of course, the other question, will the market react negatively to the news of Gary Cohn’s resignation?  Not sure. Right now the futures are pointing to lower open, with the Dow futures down about 400, and the S&P 500 futures down about 39 points. The chart below of the S&P 500 futures shows that gap lower.

SP futures

The dollar weakened initially on the news but is bouncing back some.

dollar

I think the Cohn resignation is likely a sign to the market the tariffs are likely to happen, and the market is fearful of the fallout. Perhaps Cohn was looking to get out, and he merely used this tariff fiasco as a way to make that happen.

Regarding the economic agenda, it will continue to be the Republican agenda, not the Gary Cohn agenda. So at the end of the day, his resignation is likely not a big deal over the longer-term.


Biotech Stocks

Biotechs stocks continue to struggle and have yet to rise above $111.50 on the NASDAQ Biotech ETF (IBB). We need this group to rally, and soon. The risk-on part of the market is desperately missing.

biotech

It isn’t just in the big biotech’s either; the more evenly weighted iShares Biotech XBI is also exhibiting the same pattern as we noted yesterday.

bch

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Incyte

Incyte has had terrible run since March of 2017, but the tide appears to be turning. The stock managed to finally find a bounce, but the big test comes around $93. Should it fail at $93, a move back towards the low $80 is likely. A rise above $93, likely sends the stock over $100.

incyte

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Consumer Stocks

Consumer Discretionary stocks are also nearing a make or break level, like the biotech stocks. You would never know how weak the set up is in the group based on Amazon and Netflix. In fact, except for Amazon and Netflix, the rest of the group is pretty terrible, and the discretionary XLY ETF would likely be down even more.

https://www.tradingview.com/i/WzshyRES/

Just look at the top 25 holdings within the XLY ETF. 

 

(Data from ycharts)

Netflix


Speaking of Netflix, the stock got yet another upgrade today, this time from Pivotal. The price target was increased to $400 from $300. This is the part they I can never get, they are expecting international subscribers to hit 250 million by the year 2024! How do they come up with these things? That is six years from now.  I don’t even know what Netflix will report next quarter, let alone 24 quarters from now.

You know it is kind of funny though because my model shows me the same thing! It shows Netflix hitting 250 million international subscribers in June of 2024! Wow. You think that is a coincidence? I don’t know, but if I told you I ran my model in excel with the basic trend line function on the graph, would that give you more or less confidence in the projection? Well, that is exactly how I did it.

The function actually works quiet well, when trying to predict shorter-term outlooks, but anything beyond that to me seems pretty suspect. I own Netflix, and I am more than happy to see it continue to rise, but I think looking out that far seems like a bit much.

GE

Another interesting call this week was that GE was going to rise 50 percent back to a range of  $20 to $22. That would mean GE would trade at a higher valuation than Honeywell, and I can’t comprehend that. GE is expected to earn $1.05 in 2019, while Honeywell is expected to earn $8.66. At $22 GE would trade at 21 times one year forward earnings, while Honeywell now trades at 17. Hmm..

GE PE Ratio (Forward 1y) Chart

GE PE Ratio (Forward 1y) data by YCharts

Maybe I’m missing something here, but it feels like every time you think all the bad news is out of GE’s stock more bad news follows. Should GE trade at a higher multiple than United Technologies too?

I can’t seem to wrap my head around this one.

Well that is going to be it.

 

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Tech And Biotech Look Weak, Plus Subscriber Mailbag

What The Heck Happened

Breaking Down Acadia’s Results, Exploring Trends In Chips Stocks

Stocks In Rally Mode, More To Come

Crazy Market Reaction Following Fed Minutes, Plus Subscriber Mail Bag

Subscriber Mailbag, Plus Market Rundown

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4 Red Flags For Technology Stocks

Biotech Stock Nektar May Be Ripe For A Sharp Pullback

Macy’s May Fall 18% as Option Traders Turn Bears

Micron May Rise 12% As Analysts Grow More Bullish

Why Amazon’s Stock May Continue To Outperform Alibaba’s

AMD May Fall 17% as Bearish Option Volume Soars

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Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital owns shares of NFLX

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #cohn #netflix #ge #incyte #biotech #consumer #stocks

biotech baker stocks

Biotech Stocks Continue To Rip Higher, Plus A Look At The Baker Bros. Holdings

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Biotech Stocks Continue To Rip Higher As Breakout Nears

What a big difference a few days can make, right? It was just Tuesday when everyone was trying to figure why Biotech stocks were tanking.  Today you have the NASDAQ Biotech ETF IBB ($IBB) nearing a breakout, which could send the shares surging higher to about to $122, a rise of 9 percent. What gives?

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What gives is that Monday’s episode, as I wrote, was a pullback nothing more, nothing less. It was just enough to remind everybody that the group can get wild at times. The ETF continues to grind higher, and I think it is approaching a breakout. Should the ETF rise above $114 it should get us there.

biotech stocks

The table below I find super interesting because it is the past one-year performance for the ETF holdings. The returns of Nektar ($NKTR) and Sage ($SAGE) are pretty impressive. But I want to pay attention to the bottom five stocks. Do you notice anything they all have in common?

biotech stocks

Baker Stocks

Well, Incyte ($INCY), Seattle Genetics ($SGEN), and Alexion ($ALXN) are all Baker Brother, a large biotech Hedge Fund, holdings. But they are not any holdings within the portfolio, they are numbers 1,2, and 3 holdings, 4 is not on the list, but it is Acadia Pharmaceuticals ($ACAD), and 5 BioMarin ($BMRN). Look at the performance over the past year. They have been crushed by the IBB ETF, which is up 21 percent. Amazing.

IBB Chart

IBB data by YCharts

Does it mean anything? Probably not? Maybe just bad luck I guess? I to this point haven’t been able to find a correlation that would suggest otherwise.

Seattle Genetics

Seattle Genetics appears to be trying to form an uptrend, while holdings support around $51.50. The stock has developed what seems to a bullish symmetrical triangle.

seattle geneticsAcadia

Acadia shares have been range-bound for what feels like years; one can see a triangle has formed, which could be viewed as a bullish signal.

acadia

Incyte

Incyte shares are desperately trying to form a bottom at $93. A break below $93 pushes it lower towards $80.

incyte

Alexion

Alexion, like Acadia and Seattle Genetics, is also in the middle of a bullish symmetrical triangle as well.

alexion

BioMarin

Meanwhile, shares of BioMarin have gone nowhere, and look like they may continue to be range bound.

biomarin

Until Tomorrow!

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Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own shares of ACAD

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2017 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #biotech #alexion #acadia #seattle #genetics #nektar #sage #incyte

technology stocks

Technology Stocks Continue To Rule The Land- Monster Week In Review

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Technology Stocks Continue To Rule The Land: Monster Week In Review

The first week of 2018 was no disappointment with stock starting off precisely where they left off 2017. To know displeasure, only four of the top 25 stocks in the S&P 500 were lower: Intel ($INTC), AT&T (T), Verizon ($VZ), and Procter & Gamble ($PG).  While Facebook ($FB), Alphabet ($GOOGL), and Amazon ($AMZN) were all up by over 5 percent.

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Top 25 S&P 500

Technology Stocks

Technology stocks continue to lead the charge, with the “FANG’s” consisting of the top 3 performing stock in the S&P 500. But when we look deeper into the technology sector stocks, we can see it was the chip stocks, Micron ($MU), Nvidia ($NVDA), and Applied Materials ($AMAT) that were the leaders, with PayPal ($PYPL) also putting up a solid week.

 

Technology Stocks

Micron

Micron shares look like they may have finally turned for the better after reporting solid results back in December. We can see in the chart below the gap that we had written about a couple of weeks ago did indeed get filled, while the lows around $40 were successfully tested. With the stock also taking out the post-result highs, Micron appears well positioned to make a run towards $50. 

micronIf for some reason this stock doesn’t successfully make it back to $50, I would suspect that the market is trying to send us a message about its faith in Micron’s ability to consistently grow earnings and keep margins healthy. Continue to watch how this one trades this coming week. 

Nvidia

Nvidia made a huge come back this past week, with shares nearly touching its all-time highs around $218. The stock failed two times this past week to move above $219, and that could be a problem for Nvidia. $219 is critical and the stock will need to break through that level or a I fear a re-test of the $185 level. 

nvidia

 

IBM 

IBM had a solid week with shares of the stock climbing by nearly 6 percent. Shares are nearing a big breakout at $162.65. If shares can keep their forward momentum, I can see a rally taking it to downtrend line around $175. I don’t think IBM has much to offer above and beyond that price. 

ibm

The company to this point has not solved its revenue issue, and legacy revenue is still the dominant supplier of that income. 

IBM Annual Revenue Estimates Chart

IBM Annual Revenue Estimates data by YCharts

 

Healthcare Conference

This week kicks off the JP Morgan Healthcare conference, and that means there should be plenty of news coming out biotech stock group. Biogen ($BIIB) was the best performing name in the group, with its shares jumping by nearly 8 percent to start the year. 

Biotech Stocks

Incyte

Incyte shares from a technical point look as though they may have bottomed. They finally appear back to where they started 2017 and filled the gap. 

incyte

That is going to be it for today, back tomorrow with a look at the week ahead. 

 

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Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own shares of VZ

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2017 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #xlk #technology #stocks #nvidia #micron #incyte #ibm