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Facebook, Alphabet, Tesla, Intel, Biogen, Gilead, Oil - The Daily Rundown June 18

Facebook, Alphabet, Tesla, Intel, Biogen, Gilead, Oil – The Daily Rundown June 18



Facebook, Alphabet, Tesla, Intel, Biogen, Gilead, Oil – The Daily Rundown June 18

MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN SHARES OF TSLA AND GOOGL
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The stock market had another back and forth session with the S&P 500 trading lower on the day, but it was Technology, Energy, and Biotech that finished the day in the green. S&P 500 continues to demonstrate a substantial amount of resilience testing and retesting support at 2,760.

Facebook

Big-cap technology continues to rally with shares of Facebook rising to nearly $200. The trend for Facebook remains strong,  with no obvious signs of slowing down. We should remember quarter end is fast approaching, and some of these companies may see a considerable boost in prices in anticipation of strong results.  Remember Facebook trades at a relatively cheap one-year forward PE ratio of 22.3.

Facebook


Alphabet

Alphabet shares crossed over resistance at $1170, that should be a  positive sign for the stock continuing its rise. Alphabet is another of these technology giants with a reasonable valuation at 24.7 times 2019 earnings estimates.

alphabet

Tesla

Tesla crossed over $363, and that may pave the way for a rise back to the all-times around $385. I have no idea what is going on with all these email leaks at the company it is kind of crazy. Elon might be better off just posting them all on Twitter at this point.

It is a joke, to be honest, and I can’t understand how that happens.

Part of me is playing the skeptic with the latest run of corporate espionage and sabotage at Tesla; I’m just praying they aren’t setting this up to have a scapegoat if they don’t hit 5,000 Model 3’s per week.

tesla

Intel

But not all was positive with shares of Intel falling to the uptrend.  We have been talking about this one for some time with the bearish setup. I’m just wondering how much more there is to drop or if this is the bottom,  I can make a case for both a further fall or bounce back.

Biogen

The large-cap biotech stocks struggled today, with Biogen getting hit after a competitor released positive results in a trial result.   The stock is in limbo right now, and I can see it easily refilling the gap up at $300, or falling further to $280.

biogen

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Gilead

Gilead continues to struggle, and finally, the buyers gave up at $72, and shares are trending lower with the potential to fall back to $66.75. There is nothing to like about this stock, technical or fundamentally. Sorry folks. I’m not into that whole declining revenue and earnings thing. I love companies that are growing, not shrinking.

I know it only trades at 10.6 times 2019 earnings estimates of $6.46 per share. But…

Its earnings are expected to fall by over 30 percent in 2018, and its revenue is set to drop by over 21 percent! Then, of course, we get the huge bounce back in 2019, with earnings climbing a massive 5 percent, on 1.5 percent revenue growth. It is overvalued even at 10.6 times 2019 earnings.

I’m just trying to help, don’t hate on me. Maybe I will be wrong. I’d love for the stock to go up for the long holders, but the company needs to do more to reignite growth, and buying Kite was not enough.

By the way, I have zero, no, none positions in Gilead, long/short, calls/puts. Nothing. And haven’t since selling it around $100 in April of 2016.

Gilead

AT&T

AT&T Is near a significant support level at $32, and if that cracks, it has further to fall. A lot more to fall.

at&t

Finally, I know Oil was up today, big deal. The chart looks gross.

oil

It is almost as bad as the financials :). Sorry I couldn’t resist.

You know how stupid I will look if the banks actually rise! Geez. Yeah stupid.

banks

Hope you enjoyed!

Night

-Mike

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future. 

#gilead #biogen #oil #alpahbet #facebook #intel #tesla

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Banks, Intel, Micron, Square, Twitter, P&G - The Daily Rundown for June 8

Banks, Intel, Micron, Square, Twitter, P&G – The Daily Rundown for June 8



Banks, Intel, Micron, Square, Twitter, P&G

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Well, it was another positive day for stocks, with the S&P 500 rising another 30 bps, and closing the week at 2,779. We are now less than 1 percent away from 2,800, and it doesn’t get better than that!

It wasn’t technology or biotech’s turn to lead the market higher, but this time financials and discretionary stocks. Next week will be a do or die for the banks; I’ll show you why.


Banks

The chart below is for the Financial ETF, XLF.

You see that red line? That is your downtrend. See that blue line; it WAS the uptrend!. That yellow dotted line; that is support. The downtrend is now acting as a significant resistance level, and if the ETF price climbs above that red line, then that is good news and shares breakout, rising higher. Should the stock fall when reaching that downtrend, that is bad, suggesting shares are heading lower, towards the support line at towards $26.90.

banks

But the more significant problem is that if ETF does not break out, and rise above the downtrend line than it also confirms the more prominent bearish pattern, called a descending triangle. It means the ETF is heading lower than just $26.90, and that is bad news of the sector.

Intel

Intel did fall out below the rising wedge pattern in the chart, and that is a bad sign. But let’s see what happens come Monday, and give it one more day. I can tell you that if it continues to head lower Monday that  is likely to fall towards $51

intel

Micron

Look at Micron go; it closed the day right at resistance around $61.40. Is it going up more? Well, it is trying, and getting back to resistance is a good first step. The reason I can’t tell for sure is that it is also filling a gap from the day of that significant Morgan Stanley downgrade.

micron

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Square

Look at Square, it can’t get back above resistance at around $62.

What is with all these tough calls today! Gee, it’s Friday!

But still, between Square and Twitter, Jack Dorsey is having an impressive year.

square

Twitter

It was in March that Twitter nearly broke out, and I thought a monster break out was near, should it have risen above $36.50.  Well,  the stock never broke out, and then languished, but it did the other day, and now it’s over $41.  You have to watch these things.

It takes guts to say this, but it may be heading to $46!

twtr

P&G

Have you seen Procter and Gamble! this thing is back to $77.25!

PG

That’s it!

-Mike


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-Mike

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future. 

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amazon microsoft intel

Who Was It That Said Earnings Wouldn’t Save The Stock Market?

Who Was It That Said Earnings Wouldn’t Save The Stock Market?

Michael Kramer and the Clines of Mott Capital own shares of GOOGL,V,MA

Well, if there were any questions that a strong earnings season was not going to help lift stock, I think today’s price action officially blew that theory out of the water. Add on Amazon’s colossal beat, along with Intel and Microsoft, and tomorrow is likely shaping up to be another intense day.

One needs to remember companies like Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft, and Alphabet aren’t any companies,  these are among the most significant companies by market cap, within the top 5 of the S&P 500. When they go up big or down, they take the whole market with them.


Amazon

Amazon just blew away numbers, and crushed it on the bottom line, reporting earnings per share of $3.27 per share versus estimates of $1.25. It seems impressive just how much control Amazon has over its bottom line, it comes down to if they want to make a profit or not, not if they can make a profit, and that is something quite frankly, I have never seen before.

Revenues also beat in a big way coming in at $51 billion, vs. estimates of $49.94 billion. But more importantly, the company is guiding revenue estimates next quarter to $51 to $54 billion, primarily inline with estimates of $52.24 billion.

I know the stock is up big after, and between its monster 4 percent before results, and 6 percent move after, it now up about 10.5 percent in total, to $1,615.

The revenue guidance is very impressive to me and there is plenty to like in the quarter, well have to see where estimates going forward start coming. If we start getting meaningful revenue upgrades, then an argument can once again be made that Amazon as plenty of room to continue rising.

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Microsoft

Microsoft also reported strong results as well, with earnings beating estimates by $0.10, coming in at $0.95 per share, while revenue also top expectations coming in at $26.82 billion, vs. estimates of $25.78 billion. Again very strong numbers, and impressive levels of growth. Microsoft is basically unchanged in the after hours.

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0 For 5, What!

So lets see I’m gonna give myself an 0-2 as a follow-up to my five stock prediction article.   It makes my total predictions at 0 for 5, with the immediate after hours market reactions. But in all fairness, lets see where all these stocks are in a weeks time.

Beside I am right sometimes aren’t? LOL. Of course, I am, I nailed Visa, eBay, Intel, Qualcomm, Verizon, American Express, Netflix, to name a few. Look we all get things right and wrong, it is just the way it goes. You have to go with the flow.

Anyway, moving on then.


Intel

Intel reported a big beat, and the stock is also rocketing higher following results, and I continue to think this one is heading towards, $60. I targeted that level back in December. intel

I still think SQ has further to fall as well, perhaps towards $42.

dquare


Visa

Visa had a big day, and is trading at all-time highs, I think a rise above that upper trend line, accerlates the rise. The numbers were that good. I think upgrades are still to come.

visa


MasterCard

Pretty much where Visa goes, so too does MasterCard, so I expect good results from MasterCard as well, and could it too could be getting ready for a big push higher.

mastercard

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GE

Did you notice where GE stopped rising? Yeah at $14.85, I swear you really can’t make this stuff up!

ge

Good night, and thanks for reading!

-Mike

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #stockmarket #ge #amazon #Microsoft #visa #mastercard #intel 

stock market rally

Stock Market Sees Big Rally, This Time It Maybe For Real


Stock Market Sees Big Rally, This Time It Maybe For Real

I think it is time for the overnight equity future traders, to hang up the cleats and put the jersey away and call it a career. Either that or the Algo’s need some severe tweaking for the keywords they are searching in the headlines. It seems the direction of the futures on these big down days should not be trusted and should be treated as suspect.

But the clues were all around us before the first tick took place that the sell-off would not last.

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Clue #1 – China

The first clue, the Shanghai Composite last night hardly budged on the news of the new tariffs. In fact, the algo’s in China appears to play the same game of fill the gap, as our algo’s. Are the duties imposed by China, and those imposed by the US only detrimental to the US economy, and immune to China? Of course not.

shanghai

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Clue #2 -S&P Futures Trader Wins Big, The Rest Should Go Home

Clue #2 came around 7 am when a huge block went off in the S&P 500 futures. Pretty much near the lows, and the rest was pretty much history. This same “institution, trader” has now pulled off a similar trade a few times since the February lows, and each time the market has rallied. My guess is that it is the same institution because it has happened around the same time of the day on each occurrence.

S&P 500

I even posted a tweet about it, as soon I saw it!

Technology

Remember I said I wasn’t getting fooled on the next rally until I saw the XLK breakout, well today it did!

technology

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S&P 500

The S&P 500 broke out above two downtrends. The next test comes around 2,675, then 2,690.

S&P 500 stock market


Google

Google broke out too, a rebound back to 1,080 could be on the way.

google stock market

Facebook

Facebook has seen $151 hold like a rock on multiple occasions, I still think it moves up to $166.

facebook

Intel

Intel bounced right off support and looks like it going over $50.

intel


Micron

Micron broke out too and is likely turning back towards $56.

micron

 

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Tesla

While the Tesla bears had their moment of glory, and just like that, it’ is gone. Sorry guys, hope you enjoyed it. tesla

Remember to watch out for those future traders tomorrow morning, but at least the next time you will be looking for confirmation in other markets.

Good Luck!

Mike

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #tech #technology #facebook #google #tesla #micron #intel #futures #equities #stocks

 

 

 

 

tesla amazon nvidia netflix micron

There May Be No Tesla Killer! Plus Amazon, Nvidia, Micron, Netflix


There May Be No Tesla Killer! Plus Amazon, Nvidia, Micron, Netflix

The good news is S&P 500 is trending higher; the bad news is it like to fall to around 2,745. It’s no big deal in the grand scheme of things. But it would seem for now we are putting higher-highs and higher-lows. That is good.

S&P 500 stock market

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Micron

Micron’s stock gapped higher, to only to give those gains back by day’s end. It was another perfect fill the gap scenario. The stock managed to stabilize by days end, pretty much closing at the base of the gap. Shares topped out around $63.50 at the open and the rest of the day was lower from that point on.

micron

Could shares continue drift lower, filling the gap to around $54, sure. But the longer-term setup in the chart, for now, continues to indicate a move higher. But next week will be the real deal when the company reports results on March 22.

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Skyworks

It wasn’t just shares of Micron that reversed today, Skyworks shares fell back to support around $112.

skyworks


Semis

The overall semiconductor ETF ($SOXX) is looking a bit weak too, and I think it could be set to fall further in the coming days, perhaps to $189. Nothing huge, but that is where support lies, and that is likely where it is to fall.

semiconductor stocks chips


Intel

Intel saw the same fill the gap type of pattern as Micron, and it likely tells us the moves today where more sector-based profit taking and less about the individual stocks.

intel

Roku

At least somebody out there sees Roku the same way, I do. Roku is no Netflix.

Microsoft

Technology shares also pulled back today, with Microsoft falling below support at $95.70. I think the risk to the downside could be as much a $91. But it is too soon to tell if it was just a one-day pullback or more down days to come.

microsoft

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Nvidia

I’m beginning to get the feeling that some of these technology stocks are overextended, especially given some of the latest price target revisions. It just feels like analysts are beginning to look new ways to support their valuations and price objectives.

Yesterday, Jefferies put a $300 price target Nvidia noting the newest Steven Spielberg movie as a catalyst for virtual reality headsets. Of course, Nvidia makes the graphics processing units that used in virtual reality headsets, and of course, that means Nvidia will benefit.

I’m not even sure what this movie even is, and the rationale seems like a bit of stretch to me. It is a long path before Nvidia see any benefit. But what do I know, maybe the movie will be a big hit, and I’m going to run out and buy a VR headset. Probably not likely.

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Amazon

Today was Amazon’s turn, Jefferies sees the stock hitting a $1 trillion market cap by the year 2022. First off, that is about 29 percent away from today’s valuation, at its current pace, why not late 2018 or 2019? It sounds like Amazon doesn’t have much upside from here, based on that target. Second, they put a price target of $1,850 on the stock, raising it from $1,750. They noted that they see advertising revenue hitting $22 billion by 2022, up from $4 billion today.  Is there any business Amazon can’t do? Or should we just model in the potential for every business line Amazon is in and they could get into, and then assume it will grow exponentially for years? $4 billion today, would need to increase to $6 billion in 2019, to $9 billion in 2020, to $13.5 billion in 2021, to $20.25 billion in 2022. That is a growth rate of 50 percent per year for four years straight!  But then again, I have no idea; I’m the dummy that said Amazon was overvalued at $1,500, now it is at $1,588, nearly 6 percent higher.


Netflix

Netflix pullback again, and closed today around $315. I think it could fall to roughly $295, over the short-term.

neflix

Tesla

Tesla shares traded down slightly today. News came after hours, that Volkswagen secured $25 billion in battery supplies for the year 2022. Of course every time a car company announces they are going to launch an EV, it is the next Tesla killer? Why? How? There seems to be this idea, people buy Tesla’s merely because they make EVs. I guess nobody buys a Tesla just because they like how it drives, handles, or looks? It is only to save the environment, like the electricity used to power the battery pack doesn’t come from someplace on the electric grid.

Tesla must live in an EV bubble, that now Volkswagen will soon enter. Big deal.  Right, cause Audi’s are crushing it with North American sales now? Audi A8 Sales down 53 percent in 2018, Audi A7 sales down 46 percent, Audi A6 down 24 percent. Audi A3 down 29 percent, Audi A4 GREW by 2 percent. Audi A5 grew by 447 percent because they sold only 637 in 2017, and that increased to 3,487 this year.  The SUV segment was better with Q5 sales up 24 percent, and Q7 sales up 6 percent. But let’s face facts, Audi is not killing it now, so EV or no EV is not going to result in the next Tesla killer from Volkswagen, let alone 2022.

Just like the Chevy Bolt was a Tesla killer, right? Remember that? In 2017, Chevy sold a total of 23,297 bolts. Tesla delivered 15,200 in the fourth quarter alone. Chevy Bolt’s MRSP $36,620, Model S MSRP 74,500. Hmmm.

 

Good luck.

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Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own shares of SWKS, NFLX, TSLA

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #technology #micron #intel #skyworks #semis #amazon #nvidia #netflix #tesla

 

 

 

salesforce adobe acadia

Examining Acadia, Adobe, and SalesForce – A Look At The Week To Come


Examining Acadia, Adobe, and SalesForce – A Look At The Week To Come

Inflation watch is not over just yet, this week the consumer price index (CPI) will come Tuesday. According to Bloomberg, estimates are calling for a rise of 2.2 percent year-over-year, while ex-food and energy a gain of 1.9 percent y/y. Then on Wednesday morning, we get the Producer Price Index, and estimates are calling for a month over month gain of 0.2 percent. If the results come in as expected my guess is that market will be pleased, these estimates are not a sign of an overheating economy or inflation.

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Mott Capital Management, Michael Kramer

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This week will also mark quadruple witching expiration, which means Friday could be an exciting day with a high level of volatility, just keep that in mind.

The Wall Street Journal reported late on Friday that now Intel may look to acquire Broadcom, in a case of the hunter becoming the hunted. It is incredible the that drama keeps getting more and more entangled. I have no idea where it goes from here, but perhaps with Intel in pursuit to acquire Broadcom trying to block Broadcom’s acquisition of Qualcomm, maybe Broadcom backs off. There are plenty of other chip companies around that Broadcom could fit into its portfolio. But the news is likely to give investors even more reason to keep aggressively buying the chip stocks.


Adobe

Adobe has been a fantastic stock over the years, with the stock up 185 percent over the past three years! The chart is incredible, and it seems to have broken out yet again and looks to be entering a “Netflix” ramp-up on the charts.

adobe

Earnings in 2018 are expected to grow at 45.7 percent to $6.28 per shares, while revenue is forecast to rise by 20 percent to $8.77 billion in 2018. But now, analyst views are pointing to earnings growth of about 13 percent in 2019 to $7.10 and 15 percent growth in 2020 to $8.20. Is this a Nvidia type of story where analysts are underestimating growth, for the company only to come out and top estimates? It may not be the case with Adobe because last quarter they just surprised the street on earnings by 9 percent, and 2.7 percent on revenue, nowhere near a Nvidia type of beat.

ADBE Price Target Chart

ADBE Price Target data by YCharts

Of the 33 analysts that cover the stock, 82 percent have a buy or outperform rating, while the average price target on the stock is at roughly $218. Are analysts price target adjustments on the way? Potentially. The stock is not cheap at 31 times one-year forward earnings estimates, and 10.5 times one-year forward sales. Tough call….

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SalesForce

SalesForce is another stock that looks to have broken out, but again not all that different to Adobe.  Earnings are forecast to climb by nearly 52 percent in 2018 to $2.05, while revenue is expected to grow by almost 21 percent to $12.67 billion. But the earnings growth slows to the mid-20 percent range, which is still very fast, but it comes with a high price tag, at 50 times one-year forward earnings.

saleforce

The stock is trading well above its historical trading channel, and while 91 percent of the 45 analysts covering the stock have a buy or outperforming rating on the stock, their average price target is only $135.88, only 6 percent from the current price.

CRM Price Target Chart

CRM Price Target data by YCharts


Acadia

Acadia has performed horribly since results came out, and to be honest, there was nothing terrible enough to warrant shares being down by 21 percent since. I find it interesting that analysts have raised their revenue estimates for the year 2020 to $838 million! Meanwhile, the street is looking for revenue of $263 million in 2018, and $443 million in 2019. In fact, Wall Street is modeling for the company to earn $1.78 per share by the year 2020. Those are significant revenue and earnings growth numbers, the only questions I have is what are the estimates assuming? Is it just the market for Parkinson Disease Psychosis, or are they factoring in the success of future trials? I’m not sure, the only trial that we will get color on anytime soon is the Depression trial, so it is likely all based on PDP.

 

ACAD Chart

ACAD data by YCharts

The average price target on the stock is $50.11, yet shares trade at only $25.33 today, so there again, another example of a big disconnect by the street, and the stock. Who is right? We shall find out eventually.

That is gonna be it, for now, good luck!

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

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Tags: #sp500 #intel #broadcom #qualcomm #acadia #salesforce #adobe

S&P 500 Intel Netflix Roku Micron gold Biotech stocks

5 Stock To Watch, Plus A Gold Breakout – The Week Ahead

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5 Stock To Watch, Plus A Gold Breakout – The Week Ahead

Earnings will be in focus, but there are plenty of other stocks that need watching as well. What I’m watching this week will be Intel, Micron, Roku, Netflix, Tesla, the Biotech stocks, the S&P 500 and Gold

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Intel

Intel shares had a significant breakout on Friday reaching $50, a price not seen in nearly two decades. Investor quickly forgot about all the security issues that plague the company in recent weeks, after the company posted strong quarterly results. But the stock now has a path to climb to nearly $61, a rise of about 20 percent from its closing price.

intel

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Micron

Micron shares still have been stuck below resistance at $44.75 for some time now, but the good news is that the stock continues to grind higher along a newly formed uptrend line.

micron

Roku

Roku won’t report results until February 21, but the stock continues to act poorly. One can see the stock jumped following the Netflix results but quickly gave back those gains. The trend continues to remain lower for Roku until proven otherwise. The relative strength index (RSI) also continues to trend lower.

roku

Netflix

Netflix shares are now up about 40 percent in 2018, and I’m amazed how quickly the stock price has risen. Unfortunately, the charts tell us nothing, other than that shares are overbought, with an RSI reading of about 80.

netflix

Tesla

Tesla will report results on February 7, and there will be plenty of investors just waiting to hear about the model 3. The stock had a mild setback last week but seemed to find support around $338, finding a bounce. The daily RSI reading is only in the mid-50’s and is still trending higher, while the hourly chart suggests the price can continue to rise.

tesla

Biotech

Biotech stocks continue to perform well, and the Nasdaq Biotech ETF ($IBB) continues to be on a path to $122, and potentially even higher.

biotech

S&P 500

The S&P 500 reach our target of 2850 nearly two months early than expected, and the RSI reading is well over 80. The best case scenario is that the market just consolidates sideways for a week or two now, helping that RSI to come down. Otherwise, we could be looking at pull back, to get this 2,800, which is no big deal.

S&P 500

Gold

Gold just had a major breakout and could be on its way to $1600, and it has the weak dollar to thank!

gold

Good Luck!

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Tags: #intel #micron #tesla #gold #biotech #stocks #sp500 #netflix #roku

 

 

 

Previewing Netflix, GE, Starbucks, Lam, and Intel Earnings Results

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Previewing Netflix, GE, Starbucks, Lam, and Intel Upcoming Earnings Results

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This week will feature earnings from some big companies such as Netflix, Starbucks, Verizon, GE, Lam Research, Celgene, Intel, and Caterpillar. Below is a chart of the major companies slated to report this week, I have compiled, along with the latest estimates, using Ycharts.

In this article, I will focus on Netflix, GE, Starbucks, Lam, and Intel only.

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earnings week of January 22

 

Netflix

The first company to kick things off will be Netflix and based on the run-up in the stock since the start of 2018; expectations appear to be sky high. According to Ycharts, consensus estimates are calling earnings of $0.41 and revenue of $3.28 billion. Earningswhisper.com is looking for an earnings beat of 2 cents, coming in at $0.43. The company last guided for domestic net additions of 1.25 million, and international net adds equaling 5.05 million, giving the company total net adds of 6.30 million, bringing total subscribers to about 115.55 million.

The chart suggests that there is support around $220, while a break of this support likely sends shares lower back towards $204. Additionally, the relative strength index is still in overbought territory with a reading of about 73.

netflix

The options market using a long straddle strategy of buying one put, and one call is suggesting a rise or fall for the stock of 10 percent for expiration on February 16. It would place the stock in a massive range of about 199.50 and 241, a range of 20 percent. The open interest on the calls, as of Friday was heavily favored towards the calls, with nearly 9,000 contracts, vs. 1,500 puts. It would suggest that more bets are being placed on shares rising.

GE

General Electric is expected to report on January 24, and with all the recent bad news that keeps flowing from the company, there is likely not much that should change when the company reports results. Estimates are calling for revenue of $33.75 billion, with earnings of $0.29, a decline of nearly 39 percent from the same period a year ago.

Technically the chart of the stock is broken and appear headed lower towards $14.80.

general electric ge

Starbucks

Starbucks is expected to report EPS of $0.57 and revenue of $6.2 billion. More interesting will be if Starbucks changes its full-year outlook given the new tax laws that were put into effect. The company pays an effective tax rate in the mid-30 percent range, and should that rate decline, then it could be a big boost to Starbucks bottom line. For now the street is guiding for 2018 earnings of $2.35.

The stock has recently broken out, rising above $59.50 and appears headed toward the previous highs above $64, and with shares trading, at only 19 times 2019 earnings estimates of $3.10 the stock could have plenty of upside beyond $64.

starbucks

Lam Research

Lam Research is expected to report results this week as well, and fiscal second quarter 2018 results are expected to come in at $3.67 on revenue of $2.56 billion. It was just last week that ASML reported strong results, which helped give Lam shares a significant boost.

The chart shows that the stock has been able to put in a substantial support level around $185 and appear to be rising back towards the previous highs around $220.

lam research

Intel

Intel had seen its shares rocked recently when news of security flaws in its chips came to light. But still the stock appears more than ok on a technical basis, with the stock nearly refilling the gap entirely.

intel

The street is looking for the company to report earnings of about $0.87 per share, on revenue of $16.34 billion. Earningswhisper.com is calling for earnings per share beat of $0.02, coming in at $0.89. The options market is not looking for much of a surprise when the company reports results. The February 16, long straddle using the $45 strike price is calling for a move of only 4 percent putting the shares in a range of $43 to $47.

Hope this helps gets you through some of the big results coming this week.

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Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own shares of NFLX and SBUX

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2017 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #netflix #intel #lam #ge #starbucks

stocks target week in review nvidia amd

The Monster Week In Review: Target, Netflix, Amazon, Nvidia, AMD, Tesla and More

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The Monster Week In Review: Target, Netflix, Amazon, Nvidia, AMD, Tesla and More

The market continues to rise at a torrid pace, and the S&P 500 is now up by over 4 percent for the first 9 trading days of 2018. But it is not the technology group leading the markets higher in 2018, its energy and consumer discretionary stocks, which have already surged by 7.3 and 6.4 percent. 

^SPX Chart

^SPX data by YCharts

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Energy

Energy stocks continue to outperform as Oil continues to rise, and that rise likely will not stop anytime soon. WTI Oil has already surged by nearly 7.5 percent to start the year. From the looks of the chart for Oil, it seems more likely to see $75, before we see $60 again. 

oil

Consumer Discretionary Stocks

If Consumer Discretionary ($XLY) stocks are ripping higher, then Amazon ($AMZN) and Netflix ($NFLX) must be pulling the group up. But, it is Target ($TGT), up nearly 13.5 percent in 2018, then Netflix, and Amazon. 

target amazon netflix

But shares of Target, have rallied hard and look overextended. The stock has broken out of a multi-year downtrend, but has an extremely high relative strength index (RSI) reading, higher than 70, a reading over 70 indicates overbought levels. It means the stock could be due for a pull-back or period of sideways consolidation. 

target

Netflix

Netflix shares have gone into beast mode, and one can only imagine what the expectations are going into earnings. The technicals suggest the stock is overbought at the current price, and it has to make any investor think we get a sell the news response after results. I for one do not like seeing this type of price action going into an earnings report. It likely means expectations could be approaching unachievable levels. 

nflxThe options set to expire on February 16, are pricing in a nearly 10 percent move up or down for the online streaming media giant, using the $220 strike price. Huge! It seems likely that spread gets bigger this coming week as well, with earnings slated for January 22. 

Amazon 

The expectations for Amazon continue to build as well, as the online retailer, moves higher, like Netflix. The long-straddle for expiration on February 16, using the $1310 strike price, only indicates a rise or fall of 7.5 percent. 

Amazon

Chip Stocks

The chip stocks, despite some of the negative headlines about the Spectre virus, have been performing reasonably well in 2018, with the PHLX Semiconductor ETF ($SOXX) now up 5.5 percent, and could be on the verge of a significant breakout. 

chip stocks

The chart above shows just how the ETF is making a run towards its earlier highs, last seen in late November before all the Apple iPhone supply issues started floating around. A rise above $183 signals a clear breakout, and given that the RSI and the price are trending higher, and the RSI is nowhere near overbought territory, I think we see that breakout. We just need a spike in volume to confirm the rise. 

It should not come to anyone’s surprise that Nvidia ($NVDA) and AMD ($AMD) are the best-performing stocks in the group, up about 18 and 16 percent, respectively. It’s no surprise either that Intel is the worst performing stock in the group down nearly 6 percent. 

Nvidia

Nvidia had its monster breakout, and to this point has been able to hold that breakout, staying above $219. 

Nvidia

AMD

Trying to predict the direction of AMD lately has been a nightmare. It feels like it can change course like the wind, and it doesn’t take much to make this stock rise or fall by 3-5 percent. But I’ll take a stab at it, and say that ADM looks like it’s set to rise.  The RSI has increased, and the recent consolidation in the stock bares the resemble of a bullish pennant. I shall guess, and say we see $14.25, some time in the not to distance future. 

Amd

Intel

For Intel, the long-term picture still looks solid, but in the short-term, the stock looks at risk of falling further, perhaps to as low as $41.50.

Intel

Tesla

What would the week be without some crazy call on Tesla? The stock appears to have had a significant multi-month breakout, and we can see the market tried to retest that breakout today. The stock held above the downtrend and the breakout continues to be intact. $385 seems possible, yes even from the current price.

TESLA

That’s it! More tomorrow for the week ahead. 

Is Roku Rocketing Too High?

Michael Kramer, author at Seeking Alpha, discusses Roku’s $4.3 billion valuation and why he believes that stock is bloated.


 

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2017 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #chips #stocks #energy #consumer #target #amazon #netlix #intel #nvidia #amd #tesla