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Stocks Really Breakout, A Look At Roku, Where Does Oil Go

Stocks Really Breakout, A Look At Roku, Where Does Oil Go

Stocks Really Breakout, A Look At Roku, Where Does Oil Go

Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own shares of TSLA, GOOGL, NFLX

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The S&P 500 was in rally mode, and it was a strong day across the board. Biotech, Tech, Financials, along with Energy.  The setup in the S&P 500 continues to remain very strong, and I think we may have just broken out.

sp500

In fact, the relative strength index is also showing signs of breaking out, and it would take a rise to about 60 on the RSI to confirm the bullish move.I’d like to see another strong trading day tomorrow, to prove today’s rise was real and give the index some breathing room. But the underlying sector charts are looking reasonably healthy as well.


Technology

We can see the same setup in the chart of the technology ETF (XLK), along with a strong setup in the RSI.

xlk

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Google

Alphabet shares appear to be breaking out, and I noted in an article earlier today on Investopedia, I think it might rise to around $1150.

alphabet


Netflix

Netflix appears to be on its way towards $340.

netflix

Microsoft too.

microsoft


Micron

It isn’t much different in some of the semis either. It was Monday I wrote that Micron was in the final phases of a descending wedge, and sure enough it broke out today, $54 appears to be next.

micron

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Tesla

Tesla is on the doorsteps of a significant breakout as well, currently trading around $310, which could send shares higher on towards $330.  In case you missed it, California voted to have all new houses equipped with rooftop solar panels.


Biotech

Biotechs are also looking relatively strong as well, and I still think that the group can continue to work higher. I know there is nervousness about this drug pricing speech that is now coming on Friday. But I have been saying since 2016, that I think any policy on drug pricing comes in the form of a quicker approval process, to increase competition.  I don’t see it happening through price controls.

biotech


Oil

Well, Oil is within 4 points of my $75 target, which by the way I called late last year. I have been thinking about where it goes from here.  I do not see it going much higher in the short-term. In fact, if I were a betting man, I’d say we see $60 before we see $80.

oil

I hope everyone realizes once Oil stops rising the whole inflation narrative will disappear too? Right? I’m talking to myself; Of course, they don’t.


Roku

So, I have to say that the Roku’s numbers look solid on the surface, two things stand out as concerns to me. Player revenue fell 3 percent from last year, and I guess that revenue will continue to decline. Which means the revenue numbers you are left to truly rely on to drive that future growth is just the platform.

Also, I’m curious as to why platform revenue fell sequentially, to $75 million from $85 million? Interesting. Platform gross profit margins also fell both from last year and sequentially, to 71.1 percent from 77.1 and 74.6 percent, respectively.
Additionally, the rate of net additions fell in the quarter.

The ARPU numbers are reported in a weird way, I’m not all that familiar with the style. The company takes the average number of users in the 1Q’18 and 1Q’17 and then sums up total revenue for Q2, Q3, Q4, and Q1’18. They then divide that revenue total, by the average number of subscribers to get ARPU. By the way, I had to look in the IPO prospectus to figure that out! But the number of subscribers in the 1Q’17 was only 14.2 million, so it makes the average way too low. It gives an average of 17.5 million accounts, on total platform revenue of $264 million, giving you an ARPU of $15.09, some rounding in there.

But do just a straight ARPU calculation of (Revenue/Users)/3 months, and you get $1.20 in the quarter, down from $1.47 the previous quarter. I dunno. You be the judge.

Anyway, the stock is trading pretty much where I predicted it would at $37. So where it goes from here is anyone’s guess.

roku

That is enough.

-Night

-Mike

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Tags: #micorsoft #technology #semis #tesla #roku #nvidia #micron 

 

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Technology and Semis Are Leading The Stock Market Higher

Technology and Semis Are Leading The Stock Market Higher

Technology and Semis Are Leading The Stock Market Higher

Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own shares of TSLA

The S&P 500 had a solid day, rising by 35 bps, closing at 2,672. We gave back some of the gains late in the day around the time of the Iran headlines, but it may have been more of a gap fill. The chart shows that the S&P 500 is very close to the upper bound of the trading range so that the next few days will be telling as for whether we breakout and continue our rise, or we retrace back to the 2615 region.

spx

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Technology

Technology shares continued their advance, and the setup in the group continues to look positive. We’ll need to monitor and see if the XLK ETF continues to stay within the channel. The most important thing we are watching is that we continue a pattern of higher lows.

technology


Semis

It looks like the iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) may have also broken out, another positive. I’d like to see a strong follow-through tomorrow to confirm. I bought some calls for the SMH ETF on Friday anticipating a breakout in my trading account. Not something I often do, but sometimes old habits die hard. Hopefully, I will prove right on this one.


Microsoft

Microsoft has this sizeable ascending triangle forming, and that may mean shares set for a big breakout.

msft

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Amazon

Amazon shares continue to hover just below resistance around $1,620. The next day or so will likely be telling for that stocks future direction.

amazon


Nvidia

I wrote the other day, I saw Nvidia getting back to $250 after results, well it almost got there today! Does that mean we are going even higher? I’m not ready to change the call yet.

nvidia

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Roku

Roku had a solid rise of 5 percent today, with the stock hitting some resistance around $34. Implied vol is at almost 119% for the options set to expire in 11 days, according to Trade Alert. That is crazy.

roku


Tesla

Tesla shares got a boost after reports Elon Musk bought 33,000 shares of stock. The stock has now recovered all of its losses following the quarterly results.

Tesla registered another 5,009 VINS for the Model 3 today with the NHTSA. From April 23 through May 6, Tesla registered about 6,000 VINS. That would indicate they may be producing about 3,000 cars per week. We’ll see when the next batch of VINS are recorded, and the spacing between dates.

I have now seen three Model 3’s where I live on Long Island over the past week, so they are around, and I will continue to keep track.


Micron

The last time I wrote on Micron, I noted it looks like shares broke out. Well, I was embarrassed because the stock went down. I haven’t been wrong on Micron much in the past, and this time I was. But now the setup in the chart is becoming more evident, and a breakout appears to be coming. Look at that falling wedge in the chart, along with a solid uptrend. It means a reversal is bound to happen, and that means shares are getting ready to.

micron

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Why It Is Time To Dump Starbucks, Plus A Look At ACAD

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #micorsoft #technology #semis #tesla #roku #nvidia #micron 

tesla amazon nvidia netflix micron

There May Be No Tesla Killer! Plus Amazon, Nvidia, Micron, Netflix


There May Be No Tesla Killer! Plus Amazon, Nvidia, Micron, Netflix

The good news is S&P 500 is trending higher; the bad news is it like to fall to around 2,745. It’s no big deal in the grand scheme of things. But it would seem for now we are putting higher-highs and higher-lows. That is good.

S&P 500 stock market

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Micron

Micron’s stock gapped higher, to only to give those gains back by day’s end. It was another perfect fill the gap scenario. The stock managed to stabilize by days end, pretty much closing at the base of the gap. Shares topped out around $63.50 at the open and the rest of the day was lower from that point on.

micron

Could shares continue drift lower, filling the gap to around $54, sure. But the longer-term setup in the chart, for now, continues to indicate a move higher. But next week will be the real deal when the company reports results on March 22.

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Skyworks

It wasn’t just shares of Micron that reversed today, Skyworks shares fell back to support around $112.

skyworks


Semis

The overall semiconductor ETF ($SOXX) is looking a bit weak too, and I think it could be set to fall further in the coming days, perhaps to $189. Nothing huge, but that is where support lies, and that is likely where it is to fall.

semiconductor stocks chips


Intel

Intel saw the same fill the gap type of pattern as Micron, and it likely tells us the moves today where more sector-based profit taking and less about the individual stocks.

intel

Roku

At least somebody out there sees Roku the same way, I do. Roku is no Netflix.

Microsoft

Technology shares also pulled back today, with Microsoft falling below support at $95.70. I think the risk to the downside could be as much a $91. But it is too soon to tell if it was just a one-day pullback or more down days to come.

microsoft

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Nvidia

I’m beginning to get the feeling that some of these technology stocks are overextended, especially given some of the latest price target revisions. It just feels like analysts are beginning to look new ways to support their valuations and price objectives.

Yesterday, Jefferies put a $300 price target Nvidia noting the newest Steven Spielberg movie as a catalyst for virtual reality headsets. Of course, Nvidia makes the graphics processing units that used in virtual reality headsets, and of course, that means Nvidia will benefit.

I’m not even sure what this movie even is, and the rationale seems like a bit of stretch to me. It is a long path before Nvidia see any benefit. But what do I know, maybe the movie will be a big hit, and I’m going to run out and buy a VR headset. Probably not likely.

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Amazon

Today was Amazon’s turn, Jefferies sees the stock hitting a $1 trillion market cap by the year 2022. First off, that is about 29 percent away from today’s valuation, at its current pace, why not late 2018 or 2019? It sounds like Amazon doesn’t have much upside from here, based on that target. Second, they put a price target of $1,850 on the stock, raising it from $1,750. They noted that they see advertising revenue hitting $22 billion by 2022, up from $4 billion today.  Is there any business Amazon can’t do? Or should we just model in the potential for every business line Amazon is in and they could get into, and then assume it will grow exponentially for years? $4 billion today, would need to increase to $6 billion in 2019, to $9 billion in 2020, to $13.5 billion in 2021, to $20.25 billion in 2022. That is a growth rate of 50 percent per year for four years straight!  But then again, I have no idea; I’m the dummy that said Amazon was overvalued at $1,500, now it is at $1,588, nearly 6 percent higher.


Netflix

Netflix pullback again, and closed today around $315. I think it could fall to roughly $295, over the short-term.

neflix

Tesla

Tesla shares traded down slightly today. News came after hours, that Volkswagen secured $25 billion in battery supplies for the year 2022. Of course every time a car company announces they are going to launch an EV, it is the next Tesla killer? Why? How? There seems to be this idea, people buy Tesla’s merely because they make EVs. I guess nobody buys a Tesla just because they like how it drives, handles, or looks? It is only to save the environment, like the electricity used to power the battery pack doesn’t come from someplace on the electric grid.

Tesla must live in an EV bubble, that now Volkswagen will soon enter. Big deal.  Right, cause Audi’s are crushing it with North American sales now? Audi A8 Sales down 53 percent in 2018, Audi A7 sales down 46 percent, Audi A6 down 24 percent. Audi A3 down 29 percent, Audi A4 GREW by 2 percent. Audi A5 grew by 447 percent because they sold only 637 in 2017, and that increased to 3,487 this year.  The SUV segment was better with Q5 sales up 24 percent, and Q7 sales up 6 percent. But let’s face facts, Audi is not killing it now, so EV or no EV is not going to result in the next Tesla killer from Volkswagen, let alone 2022.

Just like the Chevy Bolt was a Tesla killer, right? Remember that? In 2017, Chevy sold a total of 23,297 bolts. Tesla delivered 15,200 in the fourth quarter alone. Chevy Bolt’s MRSP $36,620, Model S MSRP 74,500. Hmmm.

 

Good luck.

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Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own shares of SWKS, NFLX, TSLA

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #technology #micron #intel #skyworks #semis #amazon #nvidia #netflix #tesla