This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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April 26, 2021
STOCKS – TSLA, AMZN, ROKU, BTC
MACRO – SPY
- RTM MIDDAY – A LOT OF BORING
- AMD Earnings Preview- Need To Know Guide
- RTM: MORNING NOTE – PREPPING FOR TESLA
- Tesla Earnings Preview- Need To Know Guide
- The Week Ahead – Reversion To The Mean
- Live Session Tomorrow At 1 PM ET
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN TSLA
Stocks did a lot of nothing today, with the S&P 500 finishing the day higher by around 19 bps. On a few occasions, the index tested resistance at 4,194 only to fail and then sell-off into the close. I’m not going to hold my breath, but the selling in the final hour kind of demonstrates just how thin this market is.
Tesla reported a much larger than expected first-quarter earnings beat, but how they got there was interesting. They clearly sold some of their bitcoin. They show $1.331 billion in digital assets on their balance sheet, while the original investment was $1.5 billion. Also, it seems I was wrong regarding the operating income showing unrealized gains or losses from Bitcoin. Still, they did manage to gain a $101 million operating expense under the Restructuring & Other from the sale. The stock is falling in the after-hours to around $720, and it appears it could be breaking the lower uptrend portion of the bear flag I pointed out yesterday.
That likely means the stock could be heading lower sooner than expected, and the next level of support around $670, with a big gap still to fill around $400.
Bitcoin apparently heard out the sale made by Tesla, with crypto failing to push beyond resistance at 54,000. The crypto got slammed yesterday afternoon after this commentary went out, falling to around 47,000, halfway to my target. It then made a sharp reversal off an Intraday reverse and head and shoulder pattern. The declines aren’t likely over, at least based on the technicals.
Amazon broke out today on some rumors of a stock split. Certainly not the first time we have heard those rumors. I still think the stock runs up to around $3,485 ahead of results and then sells off afterward.
Roku rose today, despite news it is fighting with Google over YouTube. It probably wouldn’t be good if YouTube got pulled from Roku. The stock seems to either be telling us this news doesn’t matter or that a resolution will be found. The overall trends appear to be rather weak for Roku.
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