This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
Otherwise, enjoy the column!
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MICHAEL KRAMER AND CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN SHARES OF NFLX, TSLA
The market continues to twist and turn and trying to figure out its direction seems nearly impossible. Which I will admit has become almost impossible for me too. That is why it is so important to try to find the broader trends in the market. That is another problem because, despite all the ups and downs, the S&P 500 has gone nowhere since the end of October. We have been stuck in a trading range between 2600 and 2800.
But if there is one thing we can establish is that over the past few days, the highs have been higher, and the lows have been higher. Which tells me we are at least trending higher, for now.
The Russell 2000 is holdings its lows, and not making new lows.
Even the volume levels continue to come down to their three-month moving average.
Anyway, let’s move on
Netflix is once again approaching a downtrend which has been in place since October, which could signal a breakout is on the way. Also, the RSI is indicating a break out is near.
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Facebook has already broken out of a long-term downtrend, and rise above $149 sends the stock higher towards $157.50.
Micron reports quarterly results next week and my views are bearish. I wrote up a premium article on it today. More Bad News For Micron? There was a negative story on DigiTimes today about NAND pricing.
The chart looks horrible, the stock failed at resistance around $36.40 twice, and it seems like it is heading lower towards $34.10.
Tesla is nearing its all-time high once again around $389. I have not seen many quadruple tops, and I’m not sure that it even exists. But it would suggest to me that this time when the stock gets to $389, it goes right on through it on its way towards $400. The RSI clearly shows there has been a shift in momentum which is bullish.
Roku keeps falling, and $29 is in the stock path.
JD is attempting to break out. A rise above $23 would suggest the stock could go on to increase to around $26.10.
Knocking On Heaven’s Door
The bank’s stocks look horrible. That yield curve is just 15 bps wide on the 10-2s. Home Sales are slowing, which means loan growth is slowing. Citigroup warned two weeks ago fixed-income revenue would be down versus last year. Surely not a good setup for the banks going into 2019. I mean the banks must be loving it? All those buy-back? Repurchasing their stock at even lower prices, its like shopping on Amazon.com. Of course, it doesn’t help the shareholders.
I want to know what happened to all the guys in June and July that were screaming on TV on how cheap the bank’s stocks were? What about how the buybacks were supposed to boost these stocks shares? Hmm? All those guys seemed to have disappeared. All these stock were trading at such low PE’s then, they’re trading at even lower PE’s now. I mean shouldn’t they love them even more now?
Funny. I also thought banks were valued based on price to tangible book value? These stocks weren’t so cheap if you had looked at them from that metric.
I’m not also right either, but at least I’ll tell you when I was wrong.
Bank of America
Bank of America looks very well and has $22.90 in its crosshairs.
Morgan Stanley (MS)
I’d hate to see this, but Morgan Stanley is on the brink of a major break down. The stock is sitting on support at $40.60. It looks like it could fall to $34. Ouch!
If Goldman Sach’s can not hold on to support at $171, then it’s going even lower! To potentially $158.
Finally, JPMorgan may be on its way to $94.75
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results
sp500, tesla, netflix, banks, jpmorgan, bank of america, morgan stanley, goldman sachs