AMazon roku e-commerce ecommerce

Will Amazon Represent Half Of E-Commerce, Roku Short Sellers Swarm

Subscribe to receive this FREE daily commentary directly in your email

[widget id=”text-23″]

Will Amazon Represent Half Of E-Commerce, Roku Short Sellers Swarm

The stock market continues to rally, with the S&P 500 up another 1.2 percent, and it seems like the inflation fears are now in the rearview mirror. Will those fears surface again sometime in 2018? I seriously doubt we have heard the last about rate hikes and inflation concerns, in fact I feel quite certain concerns will rise again.

There is an outside shot the S&P 500 can get to the Box I have drawn by March 1. To think, it was just a few short weeks ago, that it seemed nearly impossible.

[widget id=”text-16″]

Watch The Latest Get Reading The Market, And Get Two Weeks Free: Stocks In Rally Mode, More To Come

[widget id=”text-19″]

S&P 500

[widget id=”text-22″]

Roku

Roku shorts sellers are swarming, the borrow rate jumped to a negative 48.5 percent, today, up from nearly negative 30 percent on Friday. That is a big jump and means short sellers are scrambling to get there hands on shares of Roku to go short.

roku
(Interactive Brokers)

Roku’s chart looks pretty bad, and the stock is fighting for its life, at its support level at $40. A break of support at that levels sends the stock sharply lower.

roku

[widget id=”wordads_sidebar_widget-41″]

Amazon

Amazon shares broke out in a big way today, finally crossing over $1,500. So I guess I was wrong about Amazon and the $1500 mark, leading to a pullback.

amazon

Does it change my opinion that shares are overvalued, no. I still think Amazon is overvalued, and every time historically Amazon has traded at its current one-year forward price to sales ratio, the stock has pulled back.  It seems pretty clear from looking at that chart, but hey what do I know. I’m just one of many.

AMZN Chart

AMZN data by YCharts

According to this chart Amazon already accounts for nearly 40 percent of total e-commerce sales in the US. It likely means that Amazon is going to need to become an even more significant percentage of this total in time to keep growing at its current rate.

Fundamental Chart Chart

Unlock Deeper Insights with Exclusive Member-Only Video Content on The Market Chronicles YouTube Channel – Just $34.99/Month

Strong JOLTS Report Sends Inflation Expectations Higher

December 3, 2024 1:24 PM

Low Realized Vol Has Trapped The Stock Market

December 2, 2024 2:00 PM

Fundamental Chart data by YCharts

[widget id=”wordads_sidebar_widget-41″]

E-Commerce Vs. Amazon

US e-commerce growth has trended higher in recent years and has grown by about 16.5 percent over the past year. But Amazon is growing faster and is expected to continue to grow much quicker, which means Amazon will become a more significant part of total e-commerce sales.

In the chart below I included analysts estimates to calculate the trailing-twelve-month revenue for Amazon, and you can see how much Amazon sales are expected to grow in the coming years.

In fact, using a regression model, one can see at the current pace, Amazon would account for nearly 53 percent of all e-commerce sales by the year 2020. Sounds crazy, but then again, it makes up 40 percent of total e-commerce sales now, and that is pretty crazy too.

It all comes down to whether you believe Amazon can continue at its current rate?

If the answer is yes, you believe, then Amazon is likely cheap at these levels, because the pace of growth will be able to keep up the valuation. If the answer is no, then Amazon is no bargain now, and estimate increases will not be enough to sustain the valuation.

But then again e-commerce is only 9 percent of the total retail sales in the US.

US E-Commerce Sales as Percent of Retail Sales Chart

US E-Commerce Sales as Percent of Retail Sales data by YCharts

Something to think about for sure.

Good Luck!

[widget id=”text-22″]

Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets – An In-depth Global Macro Stock Market Commentary – In Video Format – See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

Recent Videos:

Stocks In Rally Mode, More To Come

Stock Market Still Not Out Of Danger Zone

Crazy Market Reaction Following Fed Minutes, Plus Subscriber Mail Bag

Subscriber Mailbag, Plus Market Rundown

Free Articles Written By Mike:

Netflix Seen Rising 40% On International Growth

Why Chip Stocks Will Keep Rising

Exact Sciences’ Nightmare May Get Worse for Investors

Why Tesla’s Stock Can Soar to New Highs

Join our 2,615 Daily Subscribers And Get This Commentary In Your E-Mail! Subscribe

-OR-

[vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”]

Photo Credit Via Flickr

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #amazon #roku

Add your email to The Market Chronicles' growing list of daily readers. A FREE market commentary on the trading day's most critical and least apparent events!

Add your email to The Market Chronicles' growing list of daily readers. A FREE market commentary on the trading day's most critical and least apparent events!