Yields on Long-End Will Stay In Place

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Inflation, as measured by the PCE, has ticked down in April.


Trimmed Mean PCE can not even hold 2 percent.

The price action in Oil will likely drag inflation down further.

This will probably create a flattening yield curve. However, I see this another way. The yield curve will be flattening as short-term rates rise to long-term rates as the Fed continues to jack rates higher. My expectation is that the long-end of the curve will likely remain in the current “range” due to falling inflation figures from the Oil run-off. The Fed’s continuation of raising rates is a positive and shows continued improvement in the US economy.


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