Garden City, New York Independent macro research since 2014 Substack·Seeking Alpha·YouTube

Divergences in Volatility Measures and Liquidity Highlight Fragile Market Setup

The market experienced an unusual day where equities, volatility indices, and correlation measures all rose together, signaling divergence and uncertainty ahead of the Fed meeting. At the same time, tightening liquidity conditions, repo market stress, and overbought stock indicators suggest a fragile environment where risks may soon surface.

Read more

Liquidity Drains and Yield Spreads Put S&P 500 at a Crossroads

Markets sold off sharply before staging a rebound, but tomorrow’s $44 billion in Treasury settlements and the depletion of the reverse repo facility could pose another challenge. Narrowing US-Japan yield spreads and shifting currency dynamics, particularly in MXNJPY’s alignment with the S&P 500, highlight rising risks of a broader risk-off move.

Read more

Draining Liquidity Signals Trouble for Equities

The NASDAQ 100 dropped nearly 1.4%, with high-growth names like Palantir hit even harder, in what appears to be a liquidity-driven selloff. With the reverse repo facility depleted and Treasury issuance ramping up, funding stress could build, placing additional pressure on equities in the weeks ahead.

Read more

Inflation Swaps, Yield Curve, and USDJPY Hint at Market Shifts

Stocks finished flat in a quiet session, with S&P 500 futures posting their lowest trading volume since early July. Market focus now shifts to Jay Powell’s upcoming Jackson Hole speech, inflation swap patterns, yield curve steepening, and a potential breakout in the USDJPY 5-year forward.

Read more

Get the next one in your inbox

Free daily analysis of liquidity, volatility, and market positioning. Join thousands of readers.