This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
Otherwise, enjoy the column!
© 2019 Mott Capital Management, LLC. Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.
Join our 1,436 Daily Subscribers And Get This FREE Commentary In Your E-Mail!
Even Earnings Can’t Save The Banks – The Daily Recap
Michael Kramer owns XLF Puts
Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own shares of DIS and NFLX
The S&P 500 managed to get by today rising by about ten bps, not terrible given the weak performance of the bank stocks. So it would seem to me the significant bank earnings that were supposed to deliver the massive upside didn’t materialize in my opinion. JP Morgan was the best of them, but even that beat wasn’t enough to rally the troops, because the stock finished off about 40 bps on the day. I will give credit though because Wells Fargo did rally off its lows to finish down only 1 percent.
It seems with the weaker than expected results; the attention is now drawing to a second half of the year story. But considering we are already in the second half of the year, maybe it is a fourth-quarter story. But whatever the case may be, the group continues to look bad.
I will be honest, I would rather see the banks rise because they are such a significant part of the broader market, and if the banks are falling or just treading water, it makes it harder for the rest of the market to lift.
JP Morgan’s stock failed right resistance again around $106.50.
Wells Fargo failed right at its resistance.
Citigroup, on the other hand, managed to hold support.
While the XLF managed to hold at support.
So let’s say the situation for the banks is fragile at best.
Let’s move on because Netflix got walloped today. Now if I said going into the earnings report on Monday that the risk for Netflix is greater to fall next week than to rise, and it was there was a chance they could miss subscriber estimates by 1 million subscribers or beat by 500,000 subscribers, I would probably get a tough time from my readers. Well, that is precisely what Deutsche Bank said, and the stock went down 4 percent. Now, I’ll be honest; I have can’t remember ever even reading a Deutsche Bank note on Netflix before. So I don’t know. It is anyone’s guess how the subscriber growth number is going to be. But if I had to take a guess, I think there is a better chance of them beating than missing, just a theory, but we can focus on it more this weekend.
If you have followed Disney as long as I have then you know the last three years have been painful because the stock has done Nothing!. But we are at an interesting point because a rise above $112 triggers a big break out, and it could be substantial, because of the three year period of sideways consolidation.
But if we fail, well it is a slow drift back to $100. I’m hoping for the breakout since I own it.
Micron is approaching what could be a significant break out if can cross above $57, sending shares back to $61. But I will say, for all the wild swings in Micron since the March the stock has gone nowhere.
Walmart so close to the breakout, maybe next week starts the rise to $93.50
Now Amazon wants to get into switches and enter Cisco domain? What? Give me a break.
That under armor chart is ugly. Lower it goes. maybe $20
Have a great night!
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.