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Is The Stock Market Bull Back or Is It Just More False Hope?

Is The Stock Market Bull Back or Is It Just More False Hope?

This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.

Otherwise, enjoy the column!

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Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own Netflix and Acadia

Stocks pieced together a reasonably good day, and suddenly the mood from last week seems to have changed in the market. Although the market didn’t respond immediately, I believe the recent change in attitude can be traced back to last Thursday and the dovish commentary the ECB presented.

I noted on Thursday morning that the commentary was bullish for equities over the longer-term and I continue to believe that it is the case. I think investors are slowly waking up to the idea of the ECB leaning more towards easing, and that likely means that the Fed is not only finished raising rates for 2019 but could be looking to cut rates in late 2019 depending on far the ECB goes. Remember also that Draghi’s term ends this fall, and his successor will take over. It could likely mean that Draghi’s successor could be even more dovish to start their new term to get the economies moving again.

S&P 500 (SPY)

Until proven otherwise the S&P 500 is range bound. It is clear there is a genuine struggle for stocks to get beyond the 2,810 region on the S&P 500, and whether it is where sellers genuinely live, or it is a psychological level for the buyers at this point is impossible to know.

But what I found interesting when looking at the chart of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, is that SPY already broke out. The ETF rose above resistance at 281.30. It is also showing at this point that earlier volume levels above that price are very light and that the longer-term path of least resistance at this point is higher.

spx, spy

When we look even closer, we can see the ETF not only rose above resistance, but that resistance became support and throughout the day that support held firm.

spy

I did a video today and went through the factors that I continue to believe will push the market even higher over the longer-term.  What’s Driving Stocks Recent Surge

Acadia (ACAD)

Acadia looks like it may finally be breaking out, rising above resistance around $27.20.  The next level of resistance comes around $31.00, which refills the gap.

acadia, acad

Roku (ROKU)

Roku not only fell through support at $64.30 today, but it nearly fell to support at $59.70. I guess the short-squeeze is over?

roku

Amazon (AMZN)

Amazon still hasn’t broken out and continues to struggle at the downtrend. What gives? The one thing you don’t want to see if you are long the stock is for it to fail yet again at the downtrend, that’s for sure.

amazon, amzn

Facebook (FB)

Facebook stuck at resistance around $173, and it can’t break out either. One has to one what is going in this case too. Is there just a giant seller of this stock keeping a lid on it?

facebook, fb

Netflix (NFLX)

Netflix is attempting to break out, but not yet.netflix, nflx

Anyway, that is going to be it. It is more than I was planning to do this afternoon.

-Mike

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.