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May 23 – Stock Mentions: AAPL, QCOM, JD, BABA, MU
Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own AAPL
US Markets
- S&P 500 Futures -29 points
- 10-Years 2.35%
- Oil $60.43
- VIX 16.67
- Dollar Index 98.21
International Markets
- Japan Nikkei -0.62%
- Shanghai -1.36%
- Hong Kong HSI -1.58%
- South Korea -0.26%
- Germany Dax -1.84%
- UK FTSE -1.33%
Trade war, trade war. It’s old; nothing has changed. It took me a good 20 minutes to figure out exactly what was even said that is causing these “tensions” on May 23. It seems the China commerce ministry made some comments regarding the US correcting its “wrong actions first” before there could be further negotiations. We are stuck in the “trade war” nonsense for some time longer. How much longer until the G20?
The setup going into today is certainly not what I expected based on the direction of the pre-market and global markets. So while today has the potential to be one of those days that feel bad, when we take a step back and look around the globe, the markets are doing nothing more than marking time.
Korea
As we can see, the South Korean KOSPI appears to be “attempting” to bottom out.
Shanghai
The Shanghai Composite looks nearly the same.
Germany
The Germany DAX? Same. Except remember today across Europe are parliamentary elections. Believe it or not there other things that are happening in the world. Throw in some weak PMI and you get a down day in Europe. No matter, blame it on trade tensions, it sounds better and makes for scary headlines. Although PMI’s and election uncertainty may have more actually do with it.
So despite all of the “trade tensions,” daily nothing has changed, and the market has gone nowhere.
S&P 500 (SPY)
When we look at the SPY chart, we can see that the S&P 500 is set to open below the uptrend and that doesn’t look like a good thing. I was expecting “something” to happen today, but my expectations were for the market to rise. As of now, we need to deal with the prospect of the market going lower. Unfortunately, we now need to see how the day plays out and where the S&P 500 closes.
One thing to keep watch for comes at 9:45 when we get our own Flash PMI’s
Russell (IWM)
We can see that the IWM is also sitting on a critical level of support today at $151. So again, while the opening of today’s session looks dire, it is hard to says at this point that much of anything has changed anywhere around the world.
We will be in a better position at the end of the day to determine what is happening.
Apple (AAPL)
Apple continues to fall under the weight of trade worries. One has to wonder just how much China will let Apple sales slip in the country before the government allows its people to know it is still “ok” to buy Apple products. Apple indirectly employees 100’s of thousands of people in the country. I don’t think it would be ideal if all of those people started to lose their jobs? At some point, there is a floor? I doubt that sales in China go to 0. But then against then again, it is a communist country with a President for “life.” Don’t forget that.
Qualcomm (QCOM)
Qualcomm is falling after being downgraded today by Mizuho. The stock is likely to feel some pain for a while longer as investors assess the damage of the FTC decision. $65 is a big support level because the next significant level is around $58.
15:45
Defined Terms and Jargon:
• Baltic Dry Index (BDI): A measure of shipping rates for raw materials, often viewed as an indicator of global economic activity.
• Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern: A bullish technical chart pattern indicating a potential reversal of a downtrend into an uptrend.
• Diamond Reversal Pattern: A technical chart formation indicating a potential trend reversal, characterized by price movements forming a diamond shape.
• QE (Quantitative Easing): A monetary policy where central banks purchase assets to inject liquidity into the economy, generally lowering interest rates and weakening currency.
• Rare Earth Metals: A group of chemically similar metallic elements crucial for advanced technological and industrial applications, including electronics and defense.
• Inflation Swaps: Financial instruments used by investors to speculate on or hedge against future inflation expectations.
• Control Group (Retail Sales): A subset of retail sales data that excludes volatile components and provides a clearer view of consumer spending trends.
• HGX (Philadelphia Housing Sector Index): An index tracking performance of housing-related stocks including home builders and commodity producers.
• Implied Volatility Dispersion Trade: A market strategy involving options, exploiting differences in volatility between an index and its individual components.
• Correlation Index: An indicator measuring how closely individual stocks move together, used for gauging market risk and sentiment.
Please remember to leave questions in the comments. I’ll be back later. Bye.
This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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9:07
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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11:40
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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Alibaba (BABA)
Alibaba is getting closer to my $150 target.
JD
JD is breaking below $27.50 on its way to $26.
Micron (MU)
Micron is clinging to support today at $34 and could be on its way to $32.
Good Luck! Your gonna need it!
-Mike
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results. aapl may 23
Subscribe to receive this FREE daily commentary directly in your email
This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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