Monster Market Commentary

Where Do Netflix, Amazon, AMD, Micron, and Facebook Go From Here?

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Where Do Netflix, Amazon, AMD, Micron, and Facebook Go From Here?

Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own NFLX
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Netflix (NFLX)
Interesting trading day. Day’s like the last two are not fun, for many reasons. The first reason, how stupid was I thinking Netflix (NFLX) was heading lower to $343, only to see it rise back to $368 today.  The one thing I am quite sure of, $375 is of critical importance, should it get there. A price level that the stock must rise above this time.  Sometimes figuring out the direction of a stock price is game of trial and error, picking up the little clues the market gives.
What we learned from today’s price action in Netflix, is that the uptrend is far stronger than I had thought. Additionally, the pattern in the chart now seems to be a rising triangle, and that is about as bullish as a pattern can get.  So let’s pretend like yesterday never happen, and revert to our original thesis, that Netflix will rise to $400.  By the way, it isn’t often I make this type of flip-flop so rapidly.

Broader Market

The equity market seems fine, tariffs or no tariffs. Earnings are around the corner, and all the talk and the wringing of the hands around tariffs will total thrown out the window. Sure, the tariffs may add some price inflation, or maybe manufacturers will shift operations to other locations to avoid the tariffs. But remember, China is much more dependent on the U.S. for trade than we are of them. Look at the chart of the Shanghai composite. We have been watching it with great interest because of it being so close to breaking down.

Even stocks in Hong Kong have been crushed. They too are on the cusp of a major breakdown.

It will be interesting to see when companies report results this quarter if there is any mention of tariff impacts. That’s key isn’t? That is what investors worry about, the potential impact on corporate earnings. Should the effects from tariffs be minimal, then U.S. equity prices likely have much further to rise by year. My guess,  the impacts will be minimal when looking at the total picture.

I did note in the subscriber section, there are a couple of things to pay close attention too over the next couple of days, that could cause a problem for stocks.

Are Red Flags Emerging For Stocks? Plus AMD Breaking Down

One-Liners

Amazon (AMZN)

Yesterday I noted that Amazon (AMZN) looked as if it was heading lower, well I’m flipping. No, that is a joke. I’m not flipping, in fact, the price action today was even more convincing. Amazon rose back to the uptrend then and it failed.  Again the risk for Amazon is lower, and the first level of support remains at $1,840.

AMD (AMD)

AMD (AMD)  is holding on to its uptrend by a thread. A fall below the uptrend sends shares lower to $29.50.

Micron (MU)

How critical is $45.25 for Micron (MU), so much so, that the stock rose a little bit above that price, and the sellers came in and kept it from rising the rest of the day.  I’ll be honest at this point; I can make a case for the stock rising to $51, or falling to $36. Man earnings can’t come soon enough. Perhap’s we get a sense tomorrow, for which way it goes from here.

Facebook (FB)

Facebook (FB) was down again today, and is now at $160. It is creeping up to support at $159.50. It has a long way to go if support fails.

That is it!

-Mike

Subscriber Video’s

Michael Kramer is the Founder of Mott Capital and the creator of Reading the Markets.

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

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