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2019 is nearly here, and that means it is time to roll out my ten predictions for the new year. As I did last year, I will start with number 10 and work our way up to number 1 over the last month of 2018. Enjoy!
Prediction #4 – Amazon’s Stock Roars Back To Life In 2019
Amazon shares have fallen into a bear market in 2018, but with the Fed on hold, interest rate and the dollar falling, and oil rising, the stock markets risk appetite comes back in a big way in 2019. That means Amazon may increase 25%, leading the market higher in 2019.
Analysts are forecasting monster revenue and earnings growth for Amazon and investors will once again begin to pay up for that growth rate.
Currently, analysts are forecasting revenue growth of 21% in 2019 to $280.8 billion and earnings growth of 36% to $26.61 per share. Amazon will continue to dominate the e-commerce landscape, while Amazon Web Service continues to be the leading cloud provider helping to bolster Amazon’s rapidly growing earnings. Meanwhile, Amazon’s ad unit will begin to start becoming a major contributor.
Amazon’s valuation is now at its lowest valuation in a year, with its price to sales multiple coming down to 2.7 times 2019 revenue estimates. But the good news is that analysts see revenue growing an extra 18% in 2020 to $332 billion and that means by the middle of 2019 investors will begin to value on its 2020 forwards sales, which are at only 2.2 times estimates. Should that multiple increase to 2.7 times 2020 revenue estimates the stock could rise 24% and its market cap back to roughly $900 billion.
…To Earnings Growth
With earnings surging investors will begin to re-value Amazon’s stock from a forward sales story to an earnings growth story and the focus will slowly shift to Amazon’s PE multiple, which is now 38 times 2020 estimates of $39.10 per share. It sounds astronomical, but consider analysts see earnings growing 47% in 2020, and that means the stock trades with a growth adjusted PEG ratio of 0.8. Should the PE match the 2020 growth, Amazon’s shares could climb to back to roughly $1,850, an increase of 25% from its current price of around $1478.
If Amazon fires on all-cylinder and can deliver meaningful upside to these revenue and earnings estimates it seems likely share return to the all-times and its market cap once again reaches $1 trillion.
It makes Amazon our prediction #4 for 2019.
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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