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Netflix, Amazon, Facebook, AMD, Intel, Skyworks, and Gilead

Netflix, Amazon, Facebook, AMD, Intel, Skyworks, and Gilead



Netflix, Amazon, Facebook, AMD, Intel, Skyworks, and Gilead

MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN SHARES OF NFLX AND SWKS
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Let’s get into tonight, no long-winded intros, I’m tired and grouchy and want to watch some Netflix before sleep.

Netflix

Speaking of Netflix the stock had a rough day, falling by 1.65 percent, nothing huge, but for now, the stock appears to have some strong support in place around $358.  I like the fact that the stock managed to bounce off that level twice in the day, and the stock closed well off its lows. I have owned this one for a very long time.

netflxi

Amazon

Amazon actually had nearly the same pattern today.

amazn

Facebook

as did Facebook

fb

Maybe there was a FANG Algo running today. Strange? Right!


AMD

One stock chart that looks different was the AMD chart, and maybe it is a case of filling the gap, or perhaps it is the case of a stock that is just merely overbought.  I will tell you there a lot of holes to be filled to the downside, and $13,77 is a genuine possibility.  The stock is up some absurd amount over the past couple of months, and if the stock dropped by 10 percent, it would not be the end of the world.

Relax! I’m not a hater, I’m giving you an opinion, I might even be wrong!  I am wrong from time to time. I hope I am for the sake of the longs!

amd

Intel

Intel has had a big run too, and this chart looks deadly with that rising wedge, and the odds of a stock moving back to $51 are increasing. Does that mean I’m some bear in the stock, and I think it is forever doomed, NO! It means I think it might fall over the next couple of weeks! And should the pattern complete, I shall change my outlook. intel

Skyworks

Skyworks broke out today. I’d love a rise back to $112, especially since I own it!

swks

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Gilead

Lets talk about Gilead.. you what know lets not. But if you own the stock and you can’t figure why the stock has gone anywhere in three years? I will tell you, and it has everything to do with the poor performance of the company. Just look at the at the chart below.

Any questions?

GILD Revenue (TTM) Chart

GILD Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts

That is it. Night!

-Mike


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© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

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-Mike

Photo credit via Flickr

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future. 

#amd #netflix #amazon #tesla #sp500 #apple

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Tesla Crushes The Shorts, While Amazon, Netflix, Apple, and AMD Climb



 Tesla Crushes The Shorts, While Amazon, Netflix, Apple, and AMD Climb

michael kramer and the clients of mott capital own shares of tsla, nflx, and aapl
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Stocks Continue To Rise

The S&P 500 continues to rise, and today, the index was up by about 80 bps, closing at 2,772, approaching a significant level of resistance at 2,800. I would imagine the sellers will greet the buyers with a considerable amount of selling pressure on the first such attempt to rise above 2,800.  So, we shall be observing 2,800.

I know how much of victory it must feel to the many who managed to hang in there and not bail out amid the volatility, but one must remember the coast is never clear when investing. Until we rise above 2,800, I will not be satisfied. The sellers will try to test the nerve of the buyers, but this market is not fragile in my opinion, and I do not believe the sellers will prevail.

For me, it is of particular importance because not many were calling for a rise to 2,800 on May 1st when we sat at only 2,640.  And I still think we had to 3,000 later this year.

SP%00


Tesla

Tesla had a big day today, and I noted in an Investopedia article that short-sellers may find themselves in trouble. But even more interesting was the market’s reaction today, and if you think technicals do not matter, the chart below should make you think again. Look at the volume in the chart explode when the price crossed above a strong resistance level at $309, and then explode again around $320. That were buyers coming, or short covering.

tesla

Volume today, was very high, there have only been a few occasions with higher volume in the stock over the past few years, I may be speaking too soon, but I think it may mark a turning point for the stock.

Shareholder Base

Let us remember, nearly 60 percent of the shares held in this stock are controlled by just 7 investors. Elon Musk with 22.5%, T.Rowe with 9.25%, Fidelity at 8.5%, Baillie Gifford 7.5%, Vanguard at 4.2% and Blackrock at 3.6%, and Tencent somewhere just below 5 %. These guys are not in their whipping shares of Tesla around daily.

That leaves about 40 percent of the float trading on any given day and even less than that because we know plenty of other long-term holders, like Ron Baron and such hold shares as well.

So, let’s say on any given day there are 35 percent of the shares are available to trade. How many shares are short? Well, 33 percent of the float! Notice in the chart, that as short positions were increasing the price of the stock was decreasing, that is because the short-sellers were the only ones pushing it down. We already know that 60-65 percent of the holders weren’t selling. Short-sellers borrow shares from the long-term holders, push the shares lower, no problem. But now they want to cover, but from whom will they buy their shares from, good question.

Also notice where the price of the stock was when the short interest started jumping, well most of the shooting took place below the stock’s current price. So, are they losing money? probably!

Where will shares go, I do not know for sure. But I do know that what was resistance at $309, now becomes strong support, and if the shorts are desperate to get out, then the stock is going in one direction. Up!

TSLA Chart

TSLA data by YCharts

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Amazon

Amazon’s continues to rise, after its break out.

amazon

Apple

Apple broke out as well, rising above resistance easily, and now trading at $194.

apple

Netflix

Somebody wanted to get into Netflix badly at the end of the day, enough so that to take the stock up nearly 3 bucks, on good volume no less.

nflx

AMD

Can you believe that AMD was $9.6 at the start of April! Holy Sh*t! Not only that but the rise is coming on strong volume.

amd

JP Morgan

JP Morgan filled the gap, tomorrow will be a good test. Do we continue to rise or revert to the downtrend?

jpmorgan

That’s it!

-Mike


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© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Join our 613 Daily Subscribers And Get This FREE Commentary In Your E-Mail! 

 

-Mike

Photo credit via Flickr

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future. 

#amd #netflix #amazon #tesla #sp500 #apple

 

Stocks Show Their Might Led by Chips and Biotech

Stocks Show Their Might Led by Chips and Biotech – The Daily Rundown



Stocks Show Their Might Led by Chips and Biotech – The Daily Rundown

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We surely didn’t get the breakout I was looking for today, but we sure did get an exciting trading session, that told us about the market’s current state of mind. If this had been February, I think word of tensions with North Korea, or President Trump pulling out of a meeting with the leader of North Korea would have sent the market reeling lower by 1.5 to 2 percent on the S&P 500. But this is May and spirits seem much brighter.


Equities indeed sold-off following the news President Trump was calling off the summit with Kim Jung-Un of North Korea in June. The S&P 500 had an initial knee-jerk reaction taking it down about 1 percent by 11 AM. But the rest of the day was about price recovery, and by the close, the S&P 500 finished down about 20 bps, while the NASDAQ recovered all its losses to finish essentially flat. That is impressive, and I think it tells us a lot about the state of mind for the market. What had been a weak market just a few short weeks ago, seems to have become more confident.

^SPX Chart

^SPX data by YCharts


Risk-on Leadership

Like I wrote yesterday, we saw leadership prevail from the key players, with chips and biotech’s up on the day by nearly 40 bps, the risk-on sectors of the markets. Yes, Utilities rose by 80 bps on the day, but that has more to do with yields falling, with 10-year yields down to 2.98 percent, from 3.10 a week ago.

Chips mounted a rally, from down 80 bps at 11 am, to up 34 bps by the close, a significant recovery. What stocks led, well the usual suspects, Micron up 2.6 percent and now at $61.50, followed by AMD up 2.0 percent, On Semi up 3.6 percent, and Broadcom up 1.3 percent.


Micron

The advance in Micron continues to be impressive, shares are nearing a very big breakout, sitting right at resistance at $61.50. If it can manage to advance tomorrow, then it might still have some further to go, and $61.50 should offer support in the future should it climb and retrace.

Should Micron break out tomorrow and rise above its 52-week high of $63.42, then it may be on a trip towards $73, a price not seen in nearly two decades, back to the year 2000! Yes, a break out for Micron is a huge deal.

The bears will argue the DRAM pricing cannot stay strong, and Micron’s recent revenue and earnings surge cannot last, while the Bulls say the opposite.

Based on estimates to the year 2020, analysts are forecasting flat revenues and declining earnings, the street seems to believe the good times can’t last, which means Micron’s stock can continue to climb should it keep putting up strong results because a positive outcome is not baked into the stock.


Netflix

As noted yesterday, Netflix broke out, and it continued today with shares reaching an intraday high of $353. Some in the media were talking about Netflix now having a market cap just barely higher than Disney’s and Comcast, at $152.14 billion to Disney’s $152.03 billion, and Comcast at $145.78 billion. Most of that has to do with the fact that Comcast is nearly down 20 percent on the year.

DIS Market Cap Chart

DIS Market Cap data by YCharts

Plus, my knee-jerk reaction, why shouldn’t Netflix be worth more, aren’t Comcast and Disney trying to become like Netflix? Isn’t that why Disney is launching a direct to the consumer product. Isn’t that why Comcast is trying to steal Fox’s assets away from Disney? Of course, it is. Comcast and its cable line will be worthless in another few years when Verizon and the other wireless players launch 5G, and cord cutting start to accelerate at an even faster pace.

Imagine a world, where one day like your phone and your tablet, your TV will be able to access data, but not through wifi, but your wireless provider. It sounds crazy, but how hard could it be?

Why else would Comcast be so hot to get Fox? They want to keep building up their content library and become a content business.

-Mike


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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #netflix #micron #comcast #disney #amd #broadcom #biotech #chips #stocks #sp500

Semiconductors, Small Caps, and Biotech’s In Focus



Semiconductors, Small Caps, and Biotech’s In Focus

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Semiconductor stocks were the weakest group today, with the SOXX ETF dropping by roughly 1.5 percent. The big loser in the group was Applied Materials (AMAT), dropping by about 7 percent. The company reported slightly lower than expected revenue guidance for next quarter. But let’s face it does it come as a surprise? It shouldn’t at this point. Many of the biggest chipmakers have disappointed, going all the way to the first significant report out of Taiwan Semi back in the middle of April. AMAT noted smartphone sales have been weak, and below expectations. Well, there is a shocker! Haven’t we heard that one before?

Despite the pullback, the group is on fire in the month, rising by nearly 7 percent even after today. So, you can’t complain too much, and the outlook for the group still looks solid on many fronts.


AMD

Can you believe AMD shares are up nearly 40 percent just since the start of April? Wow. That relative strength index is well into overbought levels, with a reading of around 73. But this one could be overdue for a modest pullback back to $12.50ish.

amd


Small Caps

Despite the S&P 500 stalling out, the Russell 2000 continues to reach new record highs, and the breakout continues.

russell 2000


GrubHub

With stocks like GrubHub in the index, it would seem there are more gains likely to be had. The chart on GrubHub looks powerful and ready to breakout.

grub

Proofpoint is another example:

proofpoint

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Biotech

Well, Biotech stocks as measured by the XBI, are up over 5 percent just since May 10, maybe it has something to do with the speech last week on drug prices? I’m not sure about that; I’m looking through some of the big movers, like Loxo Oncology, popping over 30 percent after positive phase 1 data presentation at ASCO.
XBI Chart

XBI data by YCharts

We will see what the next week or so brings, and which stocks continue to perform the best in the group. The leadership in that sector is still not coming for the most part from the big players.

Overall it was a solid week in which to build for the broader market, and I will discuss more in further detail over the weekend

That’s it!

-Mike

Photo credit via Flickr

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

#smallcaps #semiconductors #biotech #proofpoint #grubhub #amd

Stocks and Sectors Breaking Out For The Week of May 14

Stocks and Sectors Breaking Out For The Week of May 14



Stocks and Sectors Breaking Out For The Week of May 14

Michael kramer and the clients of mott capital own shares of acad, dis, and googl
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The week of May 14 will try to continue to build on last week’s strong performance. With earnings pretty much behind us now, investors can continue to digest the strong earnings seasons. Meanwhile, the latest inflation and wage data should also calm nerves over runaway inflation or a Fed that will need to be over aggressively, and allow for stocks to continue to rally this week.

sp500

The S&P 500 broke out last week, and the relative strength index also broke out, and I think we should continue to see the broader market continue to trend higher this week. I’m still looking for a rise to about 2,800 on the S&P 500 over the next couple of weeks.

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Consumer Stocks

We have seen Technology names breakout over the past week, and I think we see the consumer stocks finally breakout this week.

The XLY ETF is very close to breaking out, and the RSI also appears set to breakout, I think that happens this week.

consumers


Amazon

As I have written previously, Amazon is close to breaking out, and I think that breakout can happen this week, as it sits right below resistance.

amazon


Home Depot

Home Depot is another one that already has broken out, and is reporting results on May 15. Analysts are looking for earnings for $2.05, on revenue of $25.2 billion.  A return to $210 may be reach for later this week.

home depot


Disney

Disney is also likely heading higher, potentially back to $111.

disney

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Nvidia

Technology stocks have already broken out, and we are going to want to see a strong continuation this week. Nvidia is going to be the one to watch here. It has broken out, and the earnings results served as a retest of the breakout, and it held. Now we to see a follow-through higher.

nvidia


Micron

Micron also broke out, and I think a rise to about $54 is in the works.

micron


Alphabet

Alphabet is has been on a tear, I think that one continues, on towards $1150.

alphabet


AMD

AMD has also broken out and a rise to $13.70 could be coming shortly.  amd

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Biotech

Another group I will be watching are the biotechs, to see if they can build on Friday’s strength.  The XBI appears to have broken out, and the RSI did as well.  We could see a rise back to the highs around $96.

biotech


Nektar

Nektar shares bounced right off support around $70, the key this week is if the stock can get back over $83.

nktr


Acadia

Acadia may also be close to breaking out and a push back to $27 would sure be nice.

acadia stock

 

Mike

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #amazon #consumer #technology #biotech #homedepot #acadia #nektar #disney #nvidia #amd #micron

The Stock Market Faces A Critical Test The Week of April 23

The Stock Market Faces A Critical Test The Week of April 23

The Stock Market Faces A Critical Test The Week of April 23

Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own shares of NXPI, V, and SBUX

The week of April 23 will be a big week for earnings, and I already highlighted in my five predictions for earnings the outlooks for AMD, Alphabet, Microsoft, Facebook, and Amazon. But there are plenty of others such as Intel, Qualcomm, PayPal, Visa, Ford, General Motors, Starbucks, Exact Sciences, and the big Oil companies Exxon and Chevron.


Earnings Outlook

Yes, earnings do matter, and more important will be those outlooks for the coming quarters. According to data from Dow Jones S&P Indices, earnings are expected to climb by 40 percent in 2018 to $153,90 from $109.58  in 2017, that is a massive rise in profits, for one-year, and that leaves the S&P 500 trading at 17.35 times 2018 estimates. Earnings are seen climbing another 10 percent in 2019 to $168.64 and that leaves the S&P 500 trading at 15.8 times 2019 estimates. What do you think happens to those estimates should earnings be better than expected? That is right, full-year numbers come up; if they are weaker than predicted those estimates come down. In both cases, we find out stocks are cheaper than or more expensive than we thought. So how big are earnings and the outlooks? Very big.

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Chips

Semiconductors have been hammered over the past week, and with Intel, Texas Instruments, and Qualcomm reporting we are going to get a perfect sense if Taiwan Semi was a one-off, or if there is more pain in the group to come.

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Intel

Intel has been trending higher, and the relative strength index looks like a loaded coil, ready to pop. Meanwhile, the trend is overwhelmingly bullish, and that makes me think the stock pops higher.


Qualcomm/NXP

Qualcomm is near the low-end of the range, and perhaps we get some good news this week on some progress regarding the NXP Semiconductor deal. The NXP deal is a massive deal for Qualcomm and is extremely important to drive future revenue growth for the company.

qualcomm

As a shareholder of NXP, I’d love to get my $127.50 per share, from Qualcomm. But I’m more than okay if they don’t, because I continue to love this company going forward as a standalone, especially when trading 12.5 times next year earnings.


Starbucks

Starbucks has been trending higher, but every quarter has been met with disappointment. It will come down to same-store comps, and growth in China this quarter.

Despite all the headwinds this company has faced, an all-time is within reach.

 


Exact Sciences

Although my trading channel may be to narrow, the direction of the trend seems to be one way.


PayPal

The trend in PayPal is lower at this point, and the RSI is trending that way as well. Support at $73 is extremely important in this case, should PayPal fall.


Visa

Visa has been in a channel now for some time, and it appears shares and the RSI have both broken out from a downtrend, with a positive setup in place.

visa

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Exxon

Exxon shares can’t get out of a long-term downtrend, and while support at $72 held, this stock is not going anywhere until it breaks above that downtrend.

xom


Chevron

Chevron may have room to rise towards $135.

chevron

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Ford

I think the Ford chart is self-explanatory.

That is gonna be it. Good Luck

 

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #stockmarket #sp500 #amazon #facebook #amd #alphabet #microsoft #earnings

5 Monster Stock Predictions For Earnings During The Week of April 23

5 Monster Stock Predictions For Earnings During The Week of April 23

5 Monster Stock Predictions For Earnings During The Week of April 23

Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own shares of GOOGL

With earnings seasons underway, the intensity picks up in a big way this coming week, with Alphabet kicking things off this Monday afternoon, and then companies like AMD, Qualcomm, Facebook, PayPal, Amazon, Microsoft, and Intel later in the week. I have highlighted and attempted to predict the direction of the stocks following results, for five stocks, Alphabet, AMD, Facebook, Microsoft, and Amazon. Hope you enjoy, and good luck.

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Alphabet

Estimates

Shares of Alphabet have a one-year forward PE ratio of about 22, putting it among some of the cheapest technology companies. Analysts are looking for the company to report that first-quarter earnings fell by 7 percent to $9.28 per share, while revenue is expected to climb by over 22 percent to $30.26 billion. Revenue estimates have been creeping up since the start of the year, from $29.43 billion, according to Ycharts, a rise of 1.78 percent.

Options

The long straddle options strategy for expiration on May 18, are not pricing in a massive move in Alphabet shares, a rise or fall of only 7 percent, placing the stock in a trading range of about $1000 to $1150 from the 1,075 strike price.

The implied volatility is currently around 47, and that suggests a one standard deviation move of about of 6.5 percent, so again not a huge move.

Technicals

The technical’s are sending mixed signals, but that seems to be the case with every stock chart these days. The stock price recently filled a gap at $1,096 but failed to break above that resistance level. But there is a clear uptrend in the chart currently, and the $1,000 level acted as a firm support level during a time that saw very high volume levels. Additionally, it is clear that volume declined as the stock settled in around $1,000 support, which would suggest that selling pressure was easing, resulting in the stock move higher. Additionally, the relative strength index (RSI) reached an oversold condition in mid-February, and that lead to an RSI that is rising and trending higher, while the downtrend in the RSI had been broken.

googl

Price Target

The average analyst price target would suggest a rise of about 17 percent, to $1275.

The underlying technicals are bullish; the options market seems not to be looking for a big move in shares of Alphabet either, which likely implies no big surprises, while analyst trends in revenue and earnings have been relatively steady.

It would seem to suggest to me that the market is set for shares of Alphabet to rise post-earnings.

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AMD

Estimates

AMD is expected to report on April 25, and analysts estimates are expecting revenue to rise by 59 percent to $1.566 billion, while earnings are forecast to be flat at $0.09 per share. That doesn’t give me a warm and fuzzy feeling. It would suggest two things going into these results, a risk of a significant miss or a significant beat. But based on the latest set of results from Lam Research and Taiwan Semi, it makes me a little bit concerned for a miss; there seem to be a tremendous amount of operational risk here such as declining margins, or revenue falling short.

Options

The options market appears to agree, because the long straddle options strategy is pricing in a rise or fall for the stock of 13.7 percent by expiration on May 18, from the $10 strike price. It places the stock in a trading range of $8.65 to $11.35.  The puts at the $10 strike price out weight the call by a ratio of nearly 2:1 with 51,000 open put contracts to approximately 25,000 call contracts, again a bearish indication.

The term structure of the implied volatility implies a tremendous amount of volatility too. The near-term options have an implied volatility level over 90 over the next seven days, and that also means a rise or fall in the stock about 12.5 percent.

Technicals

The technical chart is also bearish at this point, with a clear downtrend in place, while failing at resistance at $10.70. The RSI is also trending lower, while volume levels have yet to reach a capitulation type of moment.  Should the stock rise on better than expected results a jump to $11.70 seems possible, while bad results could see the stock fall to early April lows around $9.

Analyst Price Targets

The average price target on the stock has been trimmed since the start of the year falling to $13.77 down from $14.04, a decline of nearly 2 percent. Meanwhile, of the 31 analysts that cover the stock 35 percent rate the stock a “buy” or “outperform,” while 45 percent rate it a “hold,” and 19 percent rating it an “underperform” or “sell.”

All of these signals appear to be negative and suggest the market seems setup for shares to fall post results.


Facebook

Facebook’s results are going to be huge, as investors await commentary on the fall out from the Cambridge Analytica data scandal.

Estimates

Analysts are looking for Facebook to report that earnings fell by 1.75 percent to $1.34 in the first-quarter, while revenue is seen rising 42 percent to $11.42 billion. Facebook naturally will significant expenses in the future when it comes to putting more staff in place to better monitor what is happening on its platform. In fact, analysts have trimmed their earnings results for the quarter from $1.38 per share since March 19.

Options

The options market has an implied volatility of roughly 55 percent, and that suggests a one standard deviation move of about 7.6 percent, putting the stock in a trading range of $153 to $179.

Technicals

The technical chart still has a solid downtrend in place, but the big volume levels in the stock around $150, also suggest a current floor in the stock. The RSI also hit oversold levels at the end of the March, but, it too still has a solid downtrend in place.

facebook

Other Factors

Rising cost continues to be a significant issue for Facebook going forward, while it is also unclear how users are responding, and the overhang of potential regulatory issues loom.

It would not be surprising to see a retest of the $150 lows following results.


Microsoft

Estimates

Analysts estimates see Microsoft earnings climbing by 16.5 percent when it reports fiscal third-quarter results to $0.85, while revenue is seen jumping by only 9.5 percent. Analysts are bullish on Microsoft and have been raising their price target on the stock since the start of the year, pushing the price target to $105.71, up by 13.15 percent since January 5, from roughly $93.40.

Options

The options market is not implying a big move in shares of Microsoft post results, with an implied volatility of roughly 44 percent. It represents a rise or fall of 6 percent. The $95 Calls set for expiration on May 18 outweigh the puts by a ratio of 9 to 1, with almost 39,000 open call options versus 4,000 put contracts. The number of open call contracts is a sizeable dollar bet at that strike price worth nearly $11.8 million.

Technicals

The chart is sending bearish indications, with an RSI trending lower and falling volume levels as the stock price continues to rise, two bearish divergences. Meanwhile, the long-term trend is higher though, and that is a still a bullish signal.

The options market and analysts price target are both overwhelming bullish, and with such a big jump in revenue during the quarter, it may not be too hard for the company to top earnings estimates. The real test will come should shares be able to breakout technically and rise above $97. Be mindful of a gap higher following results, only for that gap to be refilled.

microsoft


Amazon

Estimates

Amazon’s stock is up nearly 31 percent on the year and has been among the best-performing stocks in the market. Analysts estimates are looking for revenue to have climbed by 41 percent, to $49.92 billion, while earnings are seen falling by nearly 18 percent to $1.22 per share. Amazon has a history of being incredibly inconsistent when reporting earnings, with either big beats or significant misses. It all comes down to how much the company is investing in R&D and such during the quarter.

Options

The implied volatility is at 61 percent, and that means shares could rise or fall by 8.5 percent, putting the stock in a trading range between $1398 and $1656. The options set to expire on May 18 at the at the $1530 strike price have put to call ratio of about 1:1, with 4,900 open call contracts to 4,500 open put contracts.

Technicals

There is a long-term uptrend in the stock, but the RSI has turned bearish, with the RSI trending lower. There was a significant surge in volume when shares reached $1360, and that would seem to be strong support for now. But with the divergence in the stock price and the RSI, it would suggest that shares still have further to fall, after results.

amazon

Hope you enjoyed the 5 predictions for earnings for the coming week.

-Mike

 

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Tags: #stockmarket #sp500 #amazon #facebook #amd #alphabet #microsoft #earnings

8 Stocks and 3 Sectors To Watch For The Week Of April 2!


8 Stocks and 3 Sectors To Watch For The Week Of April 2!

The first quarter ended on a positive note, with the S&P 500 finishing Thursday higher by about 1.4 percent. It appears for now that a double bottom has been put into place on the index when looking at the intraday charts, and we are going to want to see the momentum carry through on Monday morning.

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Sectors To Watch:

Technology

The technology ETF ($XLK) managed to finish just below its uptrend line, which again is disappointing, but still, the overall longer-term trend continues to be higher. We need to watch for the XLK to continue to hold the longer-term uptrend, currently around $64. That is the most important level to watch.

technology


Biotech

Biotech continues along its upward trend as well, that has been in place since last year. Additionally, a symmetrical triangle appears to be forming, and that could be a sign the group is gearing up for a break out at some point in the second-quarter, and perhaps a strong second-half of 2018.

biotech


Semis

The semiconductors continue to look strong as well and are entrenched in an upward direction as well.

semiconductors

Stocks To Watch:

Facebook

Facebook is still the stock to watch in this market, and for now, the trend in Facebook is higher, and like the broader S&P 5oo, it appears a double pattern is in place, and that is good. A big test comes at $166, that is the next resistance level.

Facebook


Google

Google managed to clear two downtrends on Thursday, and that is a positive. $1078 is the next level to watch.

google

Amazon

Amazon has a big gap to fill back at $1,500, so look for a rise. But should Amazon fail at $1,500, I think it moves lower, towards $1250.

amazon

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Netflix

Netflix closed right at resistance around $295. Which way does it go? I think it goes higher, especially as the earnings preview notes start coming out.

netflix

AMD

AMD found a nice bounce off of support at $9.80, a bounce to $10.70 is the next level to watch.

amd


Micron

Micron also managed to turn higher around support at $52.25, and an increase to $55.60 is the next level to watch over the short-term.

mu

Twitter

Twitter filled the giant gap last week, and that means you should watch for the stock to start working higher, the next big test comes at $36.75

twitter

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Tesla

It doesn’t get any bigger than Tesla this week, with first quarter delivery numbers, and of course the Model 3 ramp update. The Bloomberg Model 3 shows Tesla trending towards producing about 2,200 cars per week. While the company also registered about 2,050 VIN’s in a seven day period through March 30. My gut says the press release reads something like, “In the final few days of the quarter, Tesla was producing cars at a rate that would equal 2,500 Model 3’s per week”.

The stock found a very big bounce off of it long-term support around $245, and that means the next test comes around $290. Watch for a bounce this week, if those Model 3 numbers come around 2,500. We should know our answer no later than after the close of trading on April 3.

tesla

Good Luck!

-Mike

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Twitter and AMD Options Stand Out, Is There A Double Top In Biotech?


Twitter and AMD Options Stand Out, Is There A Double Top In Biotech?

The stock market overall had another dull day, with the S&P 500 down less than 10 bps, closing at 2,747. Like I had mentioned yesterday, the S&P managed to hang around support at 2,746. Again, there is a chance we could try for 2,740, but my expectations continue to suggest higher equity price over the short-term.

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Yields

10-year treasury yield continue to head lower, and I think they head toward the 2.6 percent region.

10-year


IBB

The NASDAQ Biotech ETF, $IBB, looks headed towards $111.50, where there is a steady level of support there. If that cracks, we have much lower to go, and it makes the downtrend more powerful.

biotech


XBI

The XBI looks scary now, and move to $93.50 nears. But the formation of what appears to be double top is what worries me. The only question, where is the neckline in this mess? It is probably not $93.50, and that is good news. It looks to be in a range of $88 or $89, and break below that would confirm the double-top, and a move much lower.

xbi

Regeneron

Regeneron continued its downward move today after getting close to resistance around $351.

regeneron

Biogen

Biogen continues to try to turn higher.

biogen

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AMD

There was a lot of activity again in AMD options with 142,000 put contracts trading at $10 strike price for April 20 expiration. According to data from Trade Alert,  52 percent of the volume occurred on the bid, and that would tell me someone was likely buying the puts, but we won’t know until open interest updates tomorrow. There was already open interest of 267k contracts. Meanwhile, the $11 puts also traded about 43,000 contracts, but again the open interest going into today was about 265k.

The chart is near a major breakdown, and should it fall through $11.20, it is likely to head towards $10.70, but it could be as much as $9.75

amd

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Broadcom

Broadcom reported better than expected fiscal first-quarter revenue of $5.331 billion, ahead of estimates for 4.998 billion, while beating on EPS at $5.12 per share versus estimates of $5.06 according to thefly.com. The guidance for revenue of $5 billion for the fiscal second quarter is pretty much in line with expectations. To me, after the first look, there was nothing in this report that wasn’t as expected. I think the overall trend in Broadcom continues to stay favorable, with the stock continuing to rise.

broadcom


Twitter

Twitter is close to a big breakout and a rise above $36.75, as I noted in an Investopedia article, sends shares much higher, perhaps to $46. The holder of January 2019 $37 calls, pared their position back yesterday, with the open interest being reduced to 89,000 contracts.  The calls trade at $6.25, and that makes the open contracts worth about $55 million. Whoa! To think it was about $66 million yesterday before they sold some of those calls.

I went over this in the premium video yesterday and showed the build-up in the open interest when I think the position was first purchased.

Again, it surprises me how slow this trader is in lowering the position given the massive gains. In the article I wrote yesterday, I noted the open interest jumped around the end of August, and the price of Twitter was much lower, like in the upper-teens, which means the options were likely bought for a very cheap premium.

It makes me think they see more gains for the stock price.

 

twitter

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That is it!

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Tags: #sp500 #biotech #biogen #regeneron #twitter #amd #broadcom  

Chip Stocks Monster Week, Plus Micron, AMD, Netflix, Visa and Microsoft


Chip Stocks Monster Week, Plus Micron, AMD, Netflix, Visa and Microsoft

Believe it or not, the S&P 500 was up by about 3.25 percent for the week! An unexpected gain, with most of it coming on Friday. The semiconductor stocks ($SOXX) led the charge with the group up by nearly 5 percent, followed by Industrials ($XLI), and Biotech ($IBB). Outside of consumer staples ($XLP) and utilities ($XLU), it was a good week for all.

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Chips Stocks

Look at the chip stocks! Wow. We aren’t even though the first quarter and look at these significant gains. Micron, Microsemi, MKS Instruments, Qorvo, Nvidia, On, astounding, all up over 20 percent. Of the top 25 stocks in the SOXX ETF, only two are down for the year, Qualcomm and Broadcom.

Micron

I was surprised to see how poorly Micron performed today, after a strong week. The momentum has been strong, and one has to wonder why the momentum suddenly came out of it today? micron


AMD

On the other end of the spectrum, AMD is a stock that has gone nowhere. Don’t be fooled by the stock being up by 16 percent in 2018. The stock is actually down nearly 12 percent over the past 52 weeks. The earnings growth appears to be present, with earnings in 2018 expected to rise by over 117 percent to $0.37, followed by $0.52 in 2018, and $0.58 in 2019. Even revenue is expected to grow from roughly $6.3 billion in 2018 to $7 billion in 2020. But the stock won’t budge. The only problem I see with it is that for a chip stock it is expensive at 22.6 times one-year forward earnings. That is a lot, for a stock in this space, especially for one that’s name is not Nvidia.

AMD Chart

AMD data by YCharts


Microsoft Or Visa

Out of all the stocks that make up the SPY ETF top 25 holdings, I never would have guessed that Microsoft at 24.3 times one-year forward earnings estimates was the second most expensive stock behind Amazon. Followed by Alphabet at 24.06 and Visa at 24.03.

Microsoft is trading at all-time highs, but one has to wonder just how Microsoft is a better buy then say Visa presently, at the same earnings multiple. Microsoft is expected to grow its earnings by 8 percent in 2019 to $3.64 from $3.95. Meanwhile, Visa is expected to increase its earnings by nearly 17.5 percent from $4.41 to $5.18. If the bet for Microsoft is blockchain for example,  and that is going to be a way to transact in the future, Visa and MasterCard are going to be involved in some way shape or form, don’t you think?

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Amazon and Netflix

Amazon and Netflix continue just to lead the consumer names, and can you wonder why? These two companies are just loaded with future growth. But the pace they are both rising in 2018, just leaves me lost for words.

AMZN Chart

AMZN data by YCharts

As I have said before I own Netflix, and I am more than happy for the stock to rise over time, but 72 percent in the first six weeks of the years, seems like a bit much. Keep in mind; I’m the guy that wrote Netflix was cheap after it reported results in the middle of January. Then I took it one step further and said shares could rise to $355. But the pace of the rise makes me feel uncomfortable, and you are right I could sell it. But I do believe this is a multi-year growth, and even at its current price, it likely has much further to rise over time. This a global growth story in a way that has never happened before. I’d take a month or two of sideways consolidation at this point.

Tomorrow we’ll take a look at the week to come.

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Looking Ahead To Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook, and AMD Results

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Looking Ahead To Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook, and AMD Results

Earnings take center stage this coming week, and there is no shortage of big companies reporting. In this commentary, we shall focus on AMD, Facebook, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon.

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AMD

AMD will report on Tuesday after the close, and analysts are looking for the company to say fourth-quarter revenue grew by almost 27 percent to $1.401 billion, while earnings were flat vs. last year at $0.05. Earningswhisper.com is looking for the company to beat by a penny, reporting $0.06.

The table below shows how AMD is reasonably consistent and can regularly beat revenue estimates.

amdThe long straddle options strategy is calling for a rise or fall of about 12 percent following AMD’s results. That is because to buy one put and one call set for expiration on February 2 cost about $1.45, using the $13 strike price. But the calls have nearly 8,500 contracts of open interest, vs. only 1,100 puts. Suggesting that more traders are betting on shares of AMD to rise following results.

amd earnings preview

AMD stock is sitting at a critical resistance level at $12.95, with a rise above it taking the shares to about $14.25, refilling nearly a four-month-old gap, created when the company last reported results in October. The relative strength index (RSI) is only around 65 and suggests that the stock is not overbought, and could continue to rise.

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Facebook

The next big company to report will be Facebook on Wednesday after the close. Share recently came under pressure, after Mark Zuckerberg noted coming changes to the News Feed, but shares have recouped all of these losses in the past week.  Analysts are looking for revenue to have risen by about 43 percent to $12.55 billion, and earnings to have climbed by about 40 percent to $1.97. Earningswhisper.com is looking for Facebook to beat estimates and report $2.05.

Historically,  Facebook has beaten its earnings estimates, every quarter going back to fourth quarter of 2015.

fbearningsbeat

The options market is looking for only a 6 percent rise or fall after the company reports results. That is because the long straddle options strategy for the $190 strike price cost about $11.10 to buy one put and one call, and that means the stock could trade in a range of about $179 to $201, using the options set to expire on February 2. The open interest heavily favors the calls, with roughly 15,000 contracts compared to puts of only 1,800. It suggests more bets are being placed on shares rising.

The chart is also suggesting shares continue to rise. The stock has recently broken out, with shares rising above resistance around $180. The RSI is also reasonably low only around 60 and suggests shares could continue to increase as well. Additionally, the chart shows there is firm support for the stock just below $180.

fb earnings preview

Microsoft

Microsoft is also set to report on Wednesday after the close and expectations are for the company to report fiscal second-quarter revenue growth of nearly 10 percent to $28.41 billion, while earnings grew by about 3 percent to $0.86. Earningswhisper.com for the company to report earnings of $0.90.

The company has a history of beating earnings estimates in the past as well. microsoft earnings estimates

The $95 option set for expiration on February 2, are implying a move of about 5 percent, with the cost to buy one put and one call being $4.65. That puts the stock in a trading range of roughly $90.50 to $99.70. The number of open puts and calls is insignificant for this expiration date, which suggests the market is not looking for a much of surprise when Microsoft reports.

Microsoft’s chart suggests shares may be overbought at current levels, based on an RSI reading of about 80. Additionally, the RSI has been trending lower, versus the rising stock price, creating a divergent bearish indication. In fact, the RSI peaked back at the end of October, the last time Microsoft reported results, creating a significant gap in the chart.

The first level of support comes around $86. But should $86 fail, the next support region begins at $79, which also fills the gap.

microsoft

Apple

Apple is the headliner for the week, reporting results on Thursday after the close. It is anyone’s guess to how Apple will report results, and more importantly guide the forward quarter. To this point, there has been so much back and forth in the analyst community that it is nearly impossible to tell which side is right. The bear camp believes there is a risk to forward guidance, while the bull’s do not see the same level of concern.

 

While I do not have the same level of access to the supply chain as the analysts, it seems hard to believe the data can be so contrasting from the two sides. But we do know that in the middle of December Jabil and Broadcom issued strong results and substantial forward guidance, while semi-equipment companies ASML and Lam Research, have reported strong results more recently.

But again, the Apple suppliers stocks continue to act very poorly, while Verizon even noted an elongation to the upgrade cycle. 

Given how big Apple is in the handset market, it seems hard to believe that Apple will miss badly when it reports forward guidance. Also given Apple’s history of embarrassing those that bet against it, it is not something I would want to do.

Analysts are looking for earnings to have risen by about 14 percent in the fiscal first quarter to $3.82, while expectations are for revenue to have increased by 11 percent to $87 billion. But more importantly will be guidance, which is expected at $2.89, on revenue of $67.20 billion.

Meanwhile, as I wrote about for Investopedia this past week, there are plenty of bullish bets being placed in the options market.

Amazon

Amazon is also reporting on Thursday, and what will happen there is the big mystery. The street is looking for earnings of $1.83, and unless it is a colossal beat or big miss, profits do not matter, because everyone knows Amazon just plays with investors when it comes to the bottom line. Nobody embarrasses Wall Street like Amazon can.  The past two quarters are perfect examples.

amazon earnings estiamtes

But that revenue number does matter a great deal, and analysts are looking for that to have grown by astounding 37 percent to $59.85 billion. The stock is already up 20 percent in 2018, and the options market is implying a rise or fall of about 7 percent using the $1,400 strike price options set to expire on February 2, putting the stock in a range of roughly $1305 to $1495.

The huge run-up in the stock means expectations going into this print are massive, the only question that remains is if Amazon can pull off a Netflix like move, and crush even those expectations.

That is it for today back tomorrow with more for the week ahead.

 

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Tags: #earnings #previews #apple #amazon #amd #facebook #microsoft

netflix

Watch The Gaps In Netflix, Facebook, Roku, and AMD

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Watch The Gaps In Netflix, Facebook, Roku, and AMD

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To say Netflix shares entered into a higher orbit today may be an understatement. The stock surged by about 10 percent which sent the stock over $250. The company’s market cap now stands at $108 billion; it has been a fantastic run.

But don’t get crazy with the stock up at these levels, because we all know just how much the market loves to fill the gap, and that would mean over the next several weeks we could see shares of Netflix trade back down to roughly $225. It is worth noting that after the company reported in the fall of 2016, shares gapped higher and trickled lower, and the same happened again during July of 2017. Be mindful and perhaps patient.

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 netflix

Tesla

Tesla shares jumped out of the gate, and by the day’s end, all of those early gains were gone. More filling the gap, it would seem. But the news of Elon Musk’s new contract being tied to performance seems like a win for investors if his grand vision comes true. As an Investors, I’d be  more than happy to see him make as much money as possible over the life of the contract, because that should mean the stock has performed well.

tesla

But the stock appears to be solid, and today’s give back seems to be a non-event at this point. The trend in the stock is still positive, and that is a good thing considering earnings should be upon us in a few short weeks.

Facebook

Facebook shares not only have recovered all the losses from the news feed revamp, but they are now higher than where they started. Surprised? Well, you shouldn’t be, the market has a way of overreacting to things that do not matter.

facebook

Roku

Roku shares gapped up, and by the end of the day that gap was filled, and then some. The trend is still lower for this stock.

roku

AMD

AMD shares continue to look solid after a strong start to 2018. $14.25 seems like a reasonable level for the stock to continue to climb, over the next week or so.

amd

 

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How a Juno Takeover Could Boost Celgene

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

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Tags: #netflix #tesla #facebook #amd #roku

 

 

 

stocks

Under Armour, Bitcoin, AMD, Biogen, Gilead, Pfizer – Monster Commentary

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Under Armour, Bitcoin, AMD, Biogen, Gilead, Pfizer – Monster Commentary

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S&P 500

The S&P 500 had a relatively uneventful day, with the index finishing the day down less than 20 bps. But the thing to take note of is how the index has now failed right at 2,805 three times. Big deal? Likely not, and I would suspect we blow through that resistance tomorrow. The downside now is around 2,790, and with the start of significant earnings next week, I get the sense investor want go long into some of these upcoming results.

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AMD

The AMD seller appears to have gone up to the $12.50 level now; they must have caught word of our commentary yesterday, that is a joke. But anyway the chart continues to tell the story, and for now, AMD shares seem to want to go higher.  Maybe the seller should try the $12.75 level tomorrow. (meant to be funny, laugh!)

amd

Biogen

Biogen shares continue to trend nicely higher, with the next big test for the stock looming around $355. That is where gap from years ago is entirely closed, and a rise above $355 likely sends Biogen’s stock on to all-time highs. Also, we can see the stock has some room to rise before the relative strength index (RSI) gets to overbought levels.

biogen

Gilead

Gilead shares have had a massive breakout and could be on their way back to $92. If Gilead and Biogen get moving, the rest of the sector follows.

Gilead

Pfizer

Have you seen Pfizer lately? The stock looks like it ready to breakout in a big way.

pfizer

Under Armour

Under Armour looks terrible here, with a clear breakdown and a stock price that appears ready to fall to $11.55.

under armour

Even fundamentally Under Armour is grossly overvalued. Shares trade at nearly 42 times 2019 earnings estimates of $0.32. Compare that to Nike’s 24 times, and Lulu’s 25 times.

UAA PE Ratio (Forward 1y) Chart

UAA PE Ratio (Forward 1y) data by YCharts

Even on an EV/EBITDA ratio, Under Armour is first now on par with Nike, and is still well north of Lulu. It comes down to simple common sense, does Under Amour deserve to trade at premium or on par with Nike? Not a chance.

UAA EV to EBITDA (Forward) Chart

UAA EV to EBITDA (Forward) data by YCharts

Bitcoin

This chart of Bitcoin tells it all. The crypto-currency broke support around 11,800 and then it failed to rise through when it acted as resistance. See ya at 7,700.

bitcoin

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

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Tags: #sp500 #bitcoin #amd #biogen #gilead #under #armour #nike #lululemon 

amd seller stock market S&P 500

Could The Real AMD Seller Please Stand-Up – Monster Daily Commentary

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Could The Real AMD Seller Please Stand-Up – Monster Daily Commentary

Mott Capital Management, Michael Kramer

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Lots of charts today, covering the S&P 500, AMD, Tesla, Amazon, Netflix, Regeneron, Nvidia and Facebook. Stock

S&P 500

So much for those “warning signs” the media was flashing last night. But the most entertaining part of today’s rally is that we closed precisely were we peaked yesterday, it was a coincidence, right!? Not likely. Like I wrote yesterday, we gapped higher yesterday morning, dragged out feet lower the rest of the day, and today the market closes were we started. What a joke! Seriously this market is just a machine/algorithm driven marketplace.

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The chart says it all, and yes it has become just that predictable. Anyone reading this column long enough knows this happens all the time, and this is not the first time we have written about it.

An article I had written some time ago, was picked up by MarketWatch.com and was published as their chart of the day, about my earlier calls on the predictability of the market.

S&P 500

AMD

This next chart of AMD could be viewed two ways, either sad or a joke, just look at it. Raise your hand if you think there is a seller of AMD at $12.20? Whomever the trader is on this one needs to go back to school, or the algo’s need some serious tweaking. You have to be kidding me.

amd

Tesla

Tesla shares officially broke out last week when it finally began moving away from a multi-month downtrend, and it continues to trend higher, closing right around $348. Notice the stock is sitting right at resistance, but the relative strength index is still low enough that the stock should have plenty of juice left to get the price up to nearly $360 over the short-term.

tsla

Amazon and Netflix

Amazon and Netflix were two stock that did not go up today, but are you surprised? These stocks have been ripping in 2018, and have become entirely overextended. In fact, the RSI on Amazon is at 78, while Netflix is just back to 71.

Amazon is still trending in higher, that has not changed, and with earnings looming the stocks run is likely not finished.

amazon

Netflix is still trending higher as well, and it gets its turn to report result this coming Monday.

netflix

Biotech

The NASDAQ Biotech ETF ($IBB) bounced back nicely, up nearly 75bps. The ETF just continues trending modestly higher, and that is what matters.

biotech stocks

Regeneron

Keep an eye on Regeneron this one is getting close a big breakout, or breakdown.

regeneron

Nvidia

Nvidia shares tested support at $218 and held steady, a positive sign for sure.

Facebook

Facebook shares just continue to hug the uptrend, and that is a good thing, a rebound to $188 is likely coming.

facebook

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Euro’s Big Breakout

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Predicting The Euro’s Rise

An Intelligent Way Of Looking At Tesla’s Results

3 Biotech Names To Start The Year

Disney- The Market Finally Get’s It

 


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Why Exact Sciences Will Plunge Even Further

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Why Facebook Stock Looks Like a Bargain

Why Ford Could Rise By Nearly 30%

Why Morgan Stanley’s Stock Is Poised to Rise by 25%

Apple Poised to Gain 14%, Defying Skeptics

Exxon Mobil May Rise 20% on the Back of Surging Oil

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2017 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #biotech #amd #nvidia #tesla #regeneron #facebook #netflix #amazon

stocks target week in review nvidia amd

The Monster Week In Review: Target, Netflix, Amazon, Nvidia, AMD, Tesla and More

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The Monster Week In Review: Target, Netflix, Amazon, Nvidia, AMD, Tesla and More

The market continues to rise at a torrid pace, and the S&P 500 is now up by over 4 percent for the first 9 trading days of 2018. But it is not the technology group leading the markets higher in 2018, its energy and consumer discretionary stocks, which have already surged by 7.3 and 6.4 percent. 

^SPX Chart

^SPX data by YCharts

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Energy

Energy stocks continue to outperform as Oil continues to rise, and that rise likely will not stop anytime soon. WTI Oil has already surged by nearly 7.5 percent to start the year. From the looks of the chart for Oil, it seems more likely to see $75, before we see $60 again. 

oil

Consumer Discretionary Stocks

If Consumer Discretionary ($XLY) stocks are ripping higher, then Amazon ($AMZN) and Netflix ($NFLX) must be pulling the group up. But, it is Target ($TGT), up nearly 13.5 percent in 2018, then Netflix, and Amazon. 

target amazon netflix

But shares of Target, have rallied hard and look overextended. The stock has broken out of a multi-year downtrend, but has an extremely high relative strength index (RSI) reading, higher than 70, a reading over 70 indicates overbought levels. It means the stock could be due for a pull-back or period of sideways consolidation. 

target

Netflix

Netflix shares have gone into beast mode, and one can only imagine what the expectations are going into earnings. The technicals suggest the stock is overbought at the current price, and it has to make any investor think we get a sell the news response after results. I for one do not like seeing this type of price action going into an earnings report. It likely means expectations could be approaching unachievable levels. 

nflxThe options set to expire on February 16, are pricing in a nearly 10 percent move up or down for the online streaming media giant, using the $220 strike price. Huge! It seems likely that spread gets bigger this coming week as well, with earnings slated for January 22. 

Amazon 

The expectations for Amazon continue to build as well, as the online retailer, moves higher, like Netflix. The long-straddle for expiration on February 16, using the $1310 strike price, only indicates a rise or fall of 7.5 percent. 

Amazon

Chip Stocks

The chip stocks, despite some of the negative headlines about the Spectre virus, have been performing reasonably well in 2018, with the PHLX Semiconductor ETF ($SOXX) now up 5.5 percent, and could be on the verge of a significant breakout. 

chip stocks

The chart above shows just how the ETF is making a run towards its earlier highs, last seen in late November before all the Apple iPhone supply issues started floating around. A rise above $183 signals a clear breakout, and given that the RSI and the price are trending higher, and the RSI is nowhere near overbought territory, I think we see that breakout. We just need a spike in volume to confirm the rise. 

It should not come to anyone’s surprise that Nvidia ($NVDA) and AMD ($AMD) are the best-performing stocks in the group, up about 18 and 16 percent, respectively. It’s no surprise either that Intel is the worst performing stock in the group down nearly 6 percent. 

Nvidia

Nvidia had its monster breakout, and to this point has been able to hold that breakout, staying above $219. 

Nvidia

AMD

Trying to predict the direction of AMD lately has been a nightmare. It feels like it can change course like the wind, and it doesn’t take much to make this stock rise or fall by 3-5 percent. But I’ll take a stab at it, and say that ADM looks like it’s set to rise.  The RSI has increased, and the recent consolidation in the stock bares the resemble of a bullish pennant. I shall guess, and say we see $14.25, some time in the not to distance future. 

Amd

Intel

For Intel, the long-term picture still looks solid, but in the short-term, the stock looks at risk of falling further, perhaps to as low as $41.50.

Intel

Tesla

What would the week be without some crazy call on Tesla? The stock appears to have had a significant multi-month breakout, and we can see the market tried to retest that breakout today. The stock held above the downtrend and the breakout continues to be intact. $385 seems possible, yes even from the current price.

TESLA

That’s it! More tomorrow for the week ahead. 

Is Roku Rocketing Too High?

Michael Kramer, author at Seeking Alpha, discusses Roku’s $4.3 billion valuation and why he believes that stock is bloated.


 

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Inflation, Tesla Plus So Much More

Predicting The Euro’s Rise

An Intelligent Way Of Looking At Tesla’s Results

3 Biotech Names To Start The Year

Disney- The Market Finally Get’s It

 


Free Articles Written By Mike:

Apple Poised to Gain 14%, Defying Skeptics

Gold May Jump Over 20% As Investors Eye Inflation

Roku’s Decline May Be Far From Over As Volatility Surges

Why Under Armour’s Plunge Has Only Begun

Why The FAANGs’ Big Gains May Be Far From Over

How Celgene’s Big Acquisition Could Fire Up Its Stock

Why the Bears Won’t Win at Tesla

Nvidia’s Stock Faces Its Moment of Truth

Why AMD May Rise 17% Higher On Intel’s Woes

Why These 3 Oil Stocks Will Outperform

Why NXP Shareholders Will Prosper Without a Qualcomm Deal

Netflix Breakout Seen Boosting Stock By 17%

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2017 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #chips #stocks #energy #consumer #target #amazon #netlix #intel #nvidia #amd #tesla

 

A Look At the Week Ahead

A Monster Look At The Week Ahead In Stocks For January 8

A Monster Look At The Week Ahead In Stocks

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The week of January 8, could be just as exciting as last week, and the focus will continue on some of the biggest winners from last week. In this commentary, we look at the week ahead in stocks and explore the S&P 500, Pfizer, Apple, Blackberry, the “FANG’s” and AMD.

Enjoy!

S&P 500

If last week was a sign for 2018, then we are off to very a good start. The S&P 500 broke out in a significant way to start 2018. I think that means the index might be able to rally to about 2,875 or so by March. It comes down first to the technical chart, but also earnings growth will continue to accelerate in 2018, and into 2019, based on current analysts estimates, helping to give the market a perfect backdrop for 2018.

The chart below shows a clear trend line that has now been in place for the S&P 500 since February of 2016 and tested at Brexit. I have called this in the past the February16/Brexit trend line, and for the most part, we can call it the “mean” for the market. Since 2016, the market has typically deviated by about 100 to 150 points from the mean both above and below. There were two such occasions in 2017, in March when the S&P 500 peaked about 100 points higher than then mean, and when it bottomed in August about 120 points below the mean.  The chart shows the S&P 500 has now broken above the mean, which implies it could be heading towards a peak, which could occur by sometime in March, at about 2,875, 100 points higher from the mean, or trend line, at that time.

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S&p 500 A look ahead at the week in stocks

It is undoubtedly a gutsy call on my part, but one that I’m not afraid to make, and have done plenty of times before. I can let my track record speak for so itself when it comes to this stuff. Feel free to explore the website and decide for yourself.

From a fundamental standpoint, the equity market is relatively cheap. At the end of first quarter in 2017, the S&P 500 was trading around 2,360, while 2018 operating earnings are estimated at $146.48, according to Dow Jones S&P Indices, placing the S&P 500 operating earnings multiple at about 16. Estimates are now calling for 2019 operating earnings of $160.03, putting the S&P 500 at only 17 times 2019 forward operating estimates, just a bit more expensive than the start of 2017.

S&P 500 Operating Earnings Per Share Forward Estimate Chart

S&P 500 Operating Earnings Per Share Forward Estimate data by YCharts

Can 2018 be as good as 2017 for the equity market? It could be better because looking at these estimates we do not know how much of Tax reform has been priced. We will find out after guidance starts coming about two weeks times.

Pfizer

Pfizer ($PFE) made some interest, yet random news early Sunday morning, when it said, it would give up on discovering new drugs for Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s disease. Could Pfizer be looking to make a deal with a smaller company? Or are they just completely out? Interesting ahead of the JP Morgan healthcare conference, when they present on Monday morning at 8:30 AM PST

Celgene

Updated 4 PM – According to the Wall Street Journal, Celgene is in talks to buy Impact Biomedicines, a privately held company, for $7 billion. Impact’s lead drug is fedratinib, for the treatment of myelofibrosis and polycythemia vera. The deal according to the Journal in three stages, with an upfront payment of $1 billion and the final two payment after approvals from the FDA, and commercialization.

The move could be viewed by as a positive, as the market has become concerned over Celgene’s dependence on Revlimid. This could help diversify the companies pipeline, and calm the market.

Apple

Apple ($AAPL) recovered most of its losses from the week earlier when rumors swirled about a massive decline in iPhone X orders. Again, we shall see when Apple reports fiscal first-quarter 2018 results on February 1. It just means Apple is prone to these rumors for the next couple of weeks. In a premium on-demand video I went through a couple of reasons why I don’t think Apple will see this significant iPhone X shipment downgrade. You can watch the video below for just $1.99.

Apple iPhone Shipment Maybe Better Than Feared from Michael Kramer on Vimeo.


On-Demand Content

Apple iPhone Shipment Maybe Better Than Feared

Why Biotech May Outperform In 2018 

Thinking About 2018


Blackberry

In our Friday commentary, we touched on Blackberry ($BB) for the first time, and I thought I was worth mention this a very different company that many of us remember. It is no longer a handset maker like we all remember. It has become more of a software company, one focused on cybersecurity for the most part. The investor presentation is very well put together, and speak a lot about the new direction of the company, worth looking at. I have looked at the business here and there, and the game seems early enough that there is likely no rush to get into the name but surely worth following.

FANG’s

How about the FANG’s to start 2018? They have been crushing it, with Netflix ($NFLX) up by nearly 10 percent just in the four days of the year, while Amazon ($AMZN), Alphabet ($GOOGL), and Facebook ($FB) are all up just over 5 percent. We had noted in our ten prediction’s list for 2018 the FANG’s would lead the market higher in 2018, and so far they have not disappointed. It certainly helps that the FANG’s have broken out a big way to start the year, and will undoubtedly be a key to the market in 2018.

FB Chart

FB data by YCharts

Facebook

Facebook shares broke out crossing above $184.25. Additionally, the relative strength index (RSI) has also reversed and broken out of a   as well.  A rising RSI,  along with an increasing stock price are both bullish indicators

facebook

Netflix

Netflix shares have also broken out as well, with the stock crossing over $204.50 and managed to hit a new all-time as well. But the stock is likely getting a bit extended, as it is now trading outside of its long-term channel, and the RSI is approaching overbought levels. We saw the same thing happen into the third quarter results, where the stock ran up big into the print, and then stagnated afterward. Netflix is one of the first companies to report results, and are set to report Monday, January 22, after the close.

nflx

Amazon

Amazon broke out in a big way to start 2018 as well, the chart below shows it all.

amzn

Google – I Meant Alphabet

Alphabet as well.

googl

 


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An Intelligent Way Of Looking At Tesla’s Results

3 Biotech Names To Start The Year

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Why The FANG’s Could Lead In 2018

Tech Wreck V12.4.17 – More Room Too Fall

Machines Break Loose

Why The S&P500 Could Melt-Up Into Year End

S&P 500 Breakout- 2700?


AMD

Finally, Advanced Micro Devices ($AMD) was a huge winner last week, with the stock jumping by an astonishing 15.5 percent! The big move came on the news of a flaw in the design of Intel ($INTC) chips. Hype or hope is the real question. After a huge 2016, 2017 was a major disappointment in 2017, will 2018 be better? When we look at this weekly chart of AMD going back to 2006, we can see AMD has a long way to go to get back its old glory days, but we can see volume in AMD has increased dramatically since 2016. But the up-trend in 2016 has also been clearly broken with RSI that has trended lower as well.

Watch the trend in the RSI, should we see a divergence, meaning a rising RSI, with a falling stock price could signal a bottom is getting put in to place. Watch the RSI for a breakout.

amd

Good luck next week!

Free Articles Written By Mike:

Nvidia’s Stock Faces Its Moment of Truth

Why AMD May Rise 17% Higher On Intel’s Woes

Why These 3 Oil Stocks Will Outperform

Why NXP Shareholders Will Prosper Without a Qualcomm Deal

Netflix Breakout Seen Boosting Stock By 17%

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Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own shares of NFLX, GOOGL, CELG

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2017 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #fang #fb #amazon #facebook #alphabet #apple #blackberry #amd #pfizer #celgene #impact

 

 

bitcoin nvidia amd apple broadcom biotech

Bitcoin, AMD, Nvidia, Biotech, Could Apple iPhone Worries Be Overblown

Bitcoin, AMD, Nvidia, Biotech, Could Apple iPhone Worries Be Overblown

It is a new year, and with that everything gets reset back to zero, but other than not much else should change when trading opens again on January 2.

Bitcoin

It seems likely Bitcoin will continue its decline as well. In an Investopedia article on December 27, I wrote that Bitcoin could fall by as much as 50 percent, from its price of about 15,000, taking the cryptocurrency to nearly 7,700. With Bitcoin now is trading around 13,300, it seems there is still more downside risk.

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The Chart below shows how Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still far from oversold levels. The RSI is now around 46 and would need to fall below 30 before it was oversold. Meanwhile, the next significant level of resistance comes at roughly 11,800, and from there it is a long way down to around 7,700.

btc by Scorpio244 on TradingView.com

Nvidia and AMD Fallout

Nvidia and AMD will sometimes see their stock price get pushed around by the rise and fall of Bitcoin. It doesn’t matter whether GPU’s from AMD or Nvidia get used to mine Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, they are guilty by association because most investors aren’t going to have that type technical sophistication, so just keep that mind. y

In reality, as I have written about in the past, Nvidia’s total revenue from cryptocurrency mining was about 2 percent in the latest quarter, while AMD has started downplaying cryptocurrency trends in its business as well. In fact, AMD was down nearly 10 percent in 2017; the stock market never gave AMD any credit for Bitcoin when it was rising, so why should it when Bitcoin is falling.

NVDA Chart

NVDA data by YCharts

      

Tesla

Tesla Model 3’s are getting delivered, and you can now even buy one on eBay! In fact, you can also buy one now for $77,000! Or this one for $85,000!

Biotech

Remember the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference kicks-off on January 8, and there usually plenty of big announcements that come out of this conference, with more than 400 companies presenting. So make sure you are paying attention.

The Biotech ETF ($IBB) managed to stay in the zone of support, between $106.50 and $107. The biotech stocks should be able to hold this area of support and rally off it come next week.

IBB by Scorpio244 on TradingView.com

 

Celgene has been able to test support now on a few occasions at $102.5, and to this point has held.

celg by Scorpio244 on TradingView.com

 

Biogen has been able to hold support at $319.

biib by Scorpio244 on TradingView.com

 

Gilead is the real question mark in the group. After looking like it made a significant multi-year breakout back in July, and the big Kite acquisition in late summer, the stock has struggled. It seems to have found two level of support around $71.75.

gild by Scorpio244 on TradingView.com

Apple

The focus has come back to Apple and the supply chain again, as investors once again worry about iPhone demand. It is ridiculous that these rumors come up so often. This is what the third or fourth time now? Now the rumors are pointing 30 million units for the first quarter. I have no clue, what this number will be, but we can make an educated guess about how Apple may fare.

Broadcom is a major supplier to Apple and it reported it fiscal fourth quarter 2017 results back on December 6, for the period ended October 29, 2017. The company provided guidance for the fiscal first quarter of 2018, ending on February 4. The company gave strong guidance of $5.3 billion at the mid-point, about 11 percent higher than previous estimates.

AVGO Revenue Estimates for Current Quarter Chart

AVGO Revenue Estimates for Current Quarter data by YCharts

In its 10-K, Broadcom said it believes that Apple accounted for more than 20 percent of revenue in 2017, up from 15 percent in 2016.

Broadcom’s Fiscal First quarter ends on February 4, 2018, running through nearly the middle of the calendar first quarter. If Apple iPhone shipments in the first quarter are to drop from say 50 million units to 30 million units, why would Broadcom issues such strong guidance? Will there be a huge drop off in business in the second half of February and March for Apple? Perhaps. But it is just one other way to assess the situation and think outside of the box and think about all the possibilities.

Good Luck!


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In my premium video, I run through how the different sectors set up and where the ETF’s might rise or fall too. The video is about nine minutes long and I run through many charts, pulling a lot of pieces into the video for the start of 2018. It an instructional video, so you will see exactly what I’m looking at. 


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Photo Credit Via Flickr

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2017 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #bitcoin #nvidia #amd #apple #broadcom #iphone #x #tesla #model #biotech #celgene #gilead #biogen

 

 

bitcoin

Bitcoin’s Big Fall, and Nvidia, AMD Fallout- The Monster Week In Review

Bitcoin’s Big Fall, and Nvidia, AMD Fallout- The Monster Week In Review

This past week saw more record highs on the S&P 500 with the index reaching nearly 2,700.  Technology, financials, and discretionary stocks continue there run higher as well. Over the past three months, the three sectors have all risen by over 10 percent, easily outpacing the S&P 500 rise by about 7 percent.

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^SPX Chart

^SPX data by YCharts

It would seem unlikely with just one week left in the year much should change during the shortened trading week.

Chip Stocks

The chip stocks made a slight rebound this week, rising by about 1.5 percent, as measured by the semiconductor ETF ($SOXX). Micron was the story of the week though, after the company easily beat quarterly results, and raised guidance for the coming quarter. Share responded positively by about 4 percent during the week.

micron

Micron

Micron shares gapped higher after the results and managed to fill that gap. It should set up for shares of Micron to rally from these level, as the overall technical trends have shifted to a bullish stance, while the underlying business seems to be quite strong.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin had a wild week and again shows how undeveloped the market is, and the high risk that comes with it. The cryptocurrency was trading at nearly $20,000 on December 17, and reached a low of $10,500 on December 22, and is now trading at $15,820 on December 23, as of 9:40 am.

bitcoin

Insane levels of volatility for sure.  The trend has turned negative. I could not tell you what bitcoin will do from here. There is an emotional part too that can not be measured, and with no underlying fundamentals to value bitcoin, the value of it seems entirely reliant on emotion.

The pendulum will swing and what was exuberance turned to fear, turned buy the dip, and next turn may be extreme fear. Bitcoin was just at $1,000 on to start 2017, keep that in mind.

AMD and Nvidia

AMD and Nvidia fell on this Bitcoin mess too, because they are seen as indirect ways by some to play bitcoin since they make the chips that help in the process of “mining” bitcoin.

amd nvidia

AMD Price data by YCharts

But as I noted in an Investopedia article this week, AMD has not been rewarded all-year by bitcoin’s sharp rise. AMD has fallen by about 7 percent in 2017, while NVDA’s saw only 2 percent of its total revenue in its last quarter come from bitcoin.

AMD and Nvidia, Bitcoin Fears Maybe Overblown

To think that AMD or Nvidia should be down due to bitcoin seems entirely unfair for both stocks.

 

That is going to be it, until tomorrow.

 


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Biotech, Tesla, And Much More

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Free Articles Written By Mike:

AMD and Nvidia, Bitcoin Fears Maybe Overblown

Nike and Home Depot May Be Ready To Fall By 10%

GE’s Stock Investors Should Brace for More Pain

Apple Chipmakers Are Ready To Rebound

Micron’s Earning Blowout May Fuel 14% Stock Rebound

Why Verizon’s Bulls Are Even More Bullish

Microsoft Shares May Rise By 17%

Costco May Be Heading Toward a 10% Pullback

Why Intel Is Ready for a 30% Breakout

Apple Chipmakers Are Ready To Rebound

Micron’s Earning Blowout May Fuel 14% Stock Rebound

Why Goldman, Morgan Stanley May Rise At Least 15%

Why Oracle Could Rise 10%

Micron Is Poised To Jump On Earnings, Options Trades Indicate

Tesla May Continue To Rise On Positive Sentiment

AMD May Fall By 20% As Short Interest Surges To 5-Year High

Disney Is Poised to Break Out on Fox Deal

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Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own shares of TSLA and NFLX

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2017 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #bitcoin #nvidia #amd #micron #semiconductors #technology #financials #sp500