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There May Be No Tesla Killer! Plus Amazon, Nvidia, Micron, Netflix


There May Be No Tesla Killer! Plus Amazon, Nvidia, Micron, Netflix

The good news is S&P 500 is trending higher; the bad news is it like to fall to around 2,745. It’s no big deal in the grand scheme of things. But it would seem for now we are putting higher-highs and higher-lows. That is good.

S&P 500 stock market

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Micron

Micron’s stock gapped higher, to only to give those gains back by day’s end. It was another perfect fill the gap scenario. The stock managed to stabilize by days end, pretty much closing at the base of the gap. Shares topped out around $63.50 at the open and the rest of the day was lower from that point on.

micron

Could shares continue drift lower, filling the gap to around $54, sure. But the longer-term setup in the chart, for now, continues to indicate a move higher. But next week will be the real deal when the company reports results on March 22.

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Skyworks

It wasn’t just shares of Micron that reversed today, Skyworks shares fell back to support around $112.

skyworks


Semis

The overall semiconductor ETF ($SOXX) is looking a bit weak too, and I think it could be set to fall further in the coming days, perhaps to $189. Nothing huge, but that is where support lies, and that is likely where it is to fall.

semiconductor stocks chips


Intel

Intel saw the same fill the gap type of pattern as Micron, and it likely tells us the moves today where more sector-based profit taking and less about the individual stocks.

intel

Roku

At least somebody out there sees Roku the same way, I do. Roku is no Netflix.

Microsoft

Technology shares also pulled back today, with Microsoft falling below support at $95.70. I think the risk to the downside could be as much a $91. But it is too soon to tell if it was just a one-day pullback or more down days to come.

microsoft

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Nvidia

I’m beginning to get the feeling that some of these technology stocks are overextended, especially given some of the latest price target revisions. It just feels like analysts are beginning to look new ways to support their valuations and price objectives.

Yesterday, Jefferies put a $300 price target Nvidia noting the newest Steven Spielberg movie as a catalyst for virtual reality headsets. Of course, Nvidia makes the graphics processing units that used in virtual reality headsets, and of course, that means Nvidia will benefit.

I’m not even sure what this movie even is, and the rationale seems like a bit of stretch to me. It is a long path before Nvidia see any benefit. But what do I know, maybe the movie will be a big hit, and I’m going to run out and buy a VR headset. Probably not likely.

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Amazon

Today was Amazon’s turn, Jefferies sees the stock hitting a $1 trillion market cap by the year 2022. First off, that is about 29 percent away from today’s valuation, at its current pace, why not late 2018 or 2019? It sounds like Amazon doesn’t have much upside from here, based on that target. Second, they put a price target of $1,850 on the stock, raising it from $1,750. They noted that they see advertising revenue hitting $22 billion by 2022, up from $4 billion today.  Is there any business Amazon can’t do? Or should we just model in the potential for every business line Amazon is in and they could get into, and then assume it will grow exponentially for years? $4 billion today, would need to increase to $6 billion in 2019, to $9 billion in 2020, to $13.5 billion in 2021, to $20.25 billion in 2022. That is a growth rate of 50 percent per year for four years straight!  But then again, I have no idea; I’m the dummy that said Amazon was overvalued at $1,500, now it is at $1,588, nearly 6 percent higher.


Netflix

Netflix pullback again, and closed today around $315. I think it could fall to roughly $295, over the short-term.

neflix

Tesla

Tesla shares traded down slightly today. News came after hours, that Volkswagen secured $25 billion in battery supplies for the year 2022. Of course every time a car company announces they are going to launch an EV, it is the next Tesla killer? Why? How? There seems to be this idea, people buy Tesla’s merely because they make EVs. I guess nobody buys a Tesla just because they like how it drives, handles, or looks? It is only to save the environment, like the electricity used to power the battery pack doesn’t come from someplace on the electric grid.

Tesla must live in an EV bubble, that now Volkswagen will soon enter. Big deal.  Right, cause Audi’s are crushing it with North American sales now? Audi A8 Sales down 53 percent in 2018, Audi A7 sales down 46 percent, Audi A6 down 24 percent. Audi A3 down 29 percent, Audi A4 GREW by 2 percent. Audi A5 grew by 447 percent because they sold only 637 in 2017, and that increased to 3,487 this year.  The SUV segment was better with Q5 sales up 24 percent, and Q7 sales up 6 percent. But let’s face facts, Audi is not killing it now, so EV or no EV is not going to result in the next Tesla killer from Volkswagen, let alone 2022.

Just like the Chevy Bolt was a Tesla killer, right? Remember that? In 2017, Chevy sold a total of 23,297 bolts. Tesla delivered 15,200 in the fourth quarter alone. Chevy Bolt’s MRSP $36,620, Model S MSRP 74,500. Hmmm.

 

Good luck.

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

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Tags: #sp500 #technology #micron #intel #skyworks #semis #amazon #nvidia #netflix #tesla

 

 

 

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Micron’s Massive Breakout, Plus Skyworks, Lam, Biogen, Alnylam & More


Micron’s Massive Breakout, Plus Skyworks, Lam, Biogen, Alnylam & More

The stock market was mixed on Monday, with the S&P 500 finishing the day down slightly. Technology and Biotechnology continue to be the best performing sectors in the market, with the Nasdaq Biotech IBB rising by 40 bps, and the Technology ETF XLK rising by 45 bps. The semiconductor ETF SOXX was the best performing group up another over 1 percent.

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Micron

Micron’s stock was the most prominent winner up by nearly 9 percent, with the stock eclipsing the $58 technical level we had been targeting for some time. The move higher came after Nomura raised its price target on the stock to amazing $100, nearly doubling its previous target of $55. Meanwhile, Evercore upgraded the stock to $80 from $60.

If you are a Micron bull, then the good news, is the next resistance level comes somewhere around $68.

micron

Option volume was also very bullish today as well, with nearly 41,000 call contracts trading at the $55 strike price, an implies a breakeven price of nearly $62. Meanwhile, 30,000 calls contracts traded at the $60, and implies a breakeven price of nearly $64.

micron options


Skyworks

Skyworks has quietly worked its way back to nearly an all-time high. So much for the Apple supercycle issues. That is likely because Skyworks continues to diversify its customers away from Apple and continues to drive earnings and revenue growth.

skworks


Lam

Lam Research broke out, rising above its previous high, on surging volume.  Could shares climb all the way to $250? It doesn’t seem outside of the realm of possibility.

lam reserarch

 

Biogen

Biogen shares better find a bounce or the final nail may be put in the coffin of this stock. The stock sits on it technical support level around $280, and should this break below $275; it is likely headed another 11 percent lower, towards $250.

biogen

Alnylam

Shares of Alnylam broke out today, crossing above $139.50 its previous all-time high.

anylam

If the old guard biotechs aren’t going to lead the group higher, other companies are going to have to pick up the slack. Today it was Alnylam, Alkermes, and Seattle Genetics turn.

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Alkermes

Alkermes has been floating above and below the $60 mark for some time, and it will be interesting to see if the stock can finally pull away to the upside. There is only a little bit of open interest at the May 2018 calls at the $60 strike price, with 1,700 contracts open. The calls cost about $5.00 bucks It is small bet, with a notional value of approximately $1.0 million, but the options are expensive with an implied volatility of nearly 48 percent. The stock would have to rise to about $65 to break even.

biotech

Seattle Genetics

Seattle Genetics is either close to a massive breakout or colossal breakdown. It looks a like a symmetrical triangle in the chart, and that would suggest a continuation of the prior uptrend. A Rise above $60 could bring the breakout.

 

seattle genetics

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Charter

Charter, the cable company, is a new one for us to explore and was one of the better consumer discretionary names today. The chart has a strong set-up. We will have to keep an eye.

charter

That’s It.

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

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Tags: #sp500 #biotech #technology #micron #lam #skyworks #biogen #alnylam #alkermes #charter

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Apple Now Showing Weakness, While Skyworks and Broadcom Fall

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Apple Now Showing Weakness, While Skyworks and Broadcom Fall

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Apple’s stock is starting to trade poorly, and I get the feeling it isn’t done going down over the short-term. There is support currently around $168, but after that, we are looking at $165.  It is what happens after that, which is the big problem.

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apple

But should Apple fall below $165, it is likely headed back to the $150’s, with the potential for more. That red line is a significant uptrend, and should it break that uptrend; problems may lie ahead. But let’s worry about that if it should continue to move closer.

apple

Skyworks

The suppliers continue to trade terribly, and for Skyworks, the market seems intent on retesting the previous lows around $94. Should $94 not hold, well then it looks like we shall be heading towards $82, filling the gap created nearly a year ago.

I have been trying hard to pretend like that gap didn’t exist, or that it would never come back into play. But should Skyworks fail at $94, that is where it is going.

skyworks

Broadcom

Even Broadcom has now cracked, and is showing signs of weakeness, and has the potential to move back into the mid $220’s.

broadcom

Tesla

The rumor mill was at again, but this time instead of Apple falling victim, it was Tesla’s turn. Shares of Tesla fell after CNBC reported that the Model 3 could see further production delays and quality issues. Shares of the stock took a hit when the news started spreading, going from roughly flat to down about $10.

tesla

But then after hours, it was reported that Tesla is on pace with current Model 3 projections. So who is right and who is wrong? No clue. But it moved the stock and that all that matters. But again another example of rumors, and how they are starting to get a bit out of control.

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Tags: #apple #suppliers #skyworks #broadcom

 

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Did Nvidia, Micron, And AMD Just Turn For The Better? Not So Fast

Did Nvidia, Micron, And AMD Just Turn For The Better? Not So Fast

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Chips stock managed to finally rally, with the Semiconductor ETF ($SOXX) rising by over 2 percent. Even battered stocks Nvidia ($NVDA), Micron ($MU), AMD ($AMD) and Skyworks ($SWKS) managed to rally. Although the rally was nice, it is a development that will need to be continuously montiored because none of the stocks are entirely out of the woods just yet.

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Nvidia

As noted over the weekend, Nvidia may have put in that double bottom, we were wondering about. But shares will need to rise above $201, to confirm a potential breakout.

nvda

AMD

As noted over the weekend as well, I have struggled with getting AMD right for some time, and today proved again just how off I have been. Share rallied hard today, and significant enough to break through not one, but two levels of resistance. Still, observe this one, the next level of resistance comes around $11.50.

amd

Micron

Micron reports results tomorrow after the close, and nothing could be more significant for this company, with guidance being essential.  It may be too early to draw in a trend line, but there is the making of an uptrend. Continue to watch and pay attention to that guidance and margins.

mu

Skyworks

Skyworks shares have found support once again around $94.5, and shares had a nice bounce today. The RSI suggests shares are oversold. But still, it may be too soon to call the bottom.

skyworks

Financials and Utilities

Financials performed the best today, up by over 1 percent, while Utilities again fell. The market is sending a pretty clear signal here, it sees a higher interest rate environment coming, and that is positive for banks, and bad for Utilities. Utilities have higher yields, and when rates rise, stocks prices for high dividend stocks fall to adjust for yields.  That is what is happening here.

XLF Price Chart

XLF Price data by YCharts

Rates

Over the past week the Utilities ETF, XLU has fallen by over 3 percent, underperforming a bunch of sectors.

XLF Price Chart

XLF Price data by YCharts

Rates on the longer-end of the curve could be set for a breakout as well.

rates

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Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own shares of  $SWKS

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

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Tags: #Nvidia #amd #micron #skyworks #financials

 

 

bitcoin

Why Bitcoin Is Poised To Fall, Plus Skyworks, Micron, Nvidia, Tesla

Skyworks, Micron, Nvidia Still Struggle, Bitcoin Reversal Pattern, Tesla

 

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Chips Still Struggle

Chip stocks just continue to melt, and I’m at this point I’m no longer sure what the driving force behind this melt is, as it seems completely overdone.  When looking at shares of Apple supplier Skyworks ($SWKS), the stock had now fallen nearly 19 percent since November 6, when it reported results that beat estimates and gave solid guidance. Shares are currently trading at less than 12 one-year forward fiscal 2019 earnings estimates of $7.98.

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SWKS Chart

SWKS data by YCharts

If the problem is Apple related, then it inevitably hasn’t been reflected in Apple’s stock, because those shares are only down by 1 percent during the same period. Broadcom, another Apple supplier, is down 6.7 percent. But Cirrus Logic and Qorvo two more suppliers have also been slammed, 14 and 17 percent respectively.

But the problem may very well be Apple related, just not on the supply side. Reports have floated for some time that Apple may be about to cut off its second supplier of chips in Dialog Semi. The shares of Dialog Semi have fallen from 44.09EU to 24EU since November 6, a decline of almost 41 percent since November 6. So why are the chips like Skyworks and the smaller suppliers getting crushed? Look at Dialog.

I had written a pretty detailed piece on December 7 for Investopedia, going through this, and the potential fall out. Skyworks and Qorvo have done an excellent job over the years diversifying their revenue streams, but still, have more work to do.

swks

At this point, if Skyworks trades below $94, it seems obvious the next stop is likely on towards filling the gap, in the low to mid-80’s. It would surely be a disappointing finish to what had been a strong year. But the market needs to play this game and will need to sort this out, and it will.

Micron

Micron continues to trade terribly, and can’t seem to hold any gains, even on a day when it gets an excellent commentary out of Morgan Stanley reiterating a buy and $55 price target. It tells of a stock that sellers are just taking advantage of any uptick to pounded it lower, and it means the stock is likely not done going lower.

micron

Nvidia

Nvidia is in the same boat as Micron, the bulls may not want to admit it, but stocks that were once might high flyers that can’t mount a meaningful bid, means their wings have been clipped and likely headed lower.

nvidia

Tesla

Tesla is a zero according to interview with Jim Chanos on CNBC today.  So most would know that I very much disagree with this viewpoint. In fact, I think it may be misguided on his part to believe it is a zero. Tesla has seen relatively high demand all year-long, while many of the high-end luxury automakers have struggled. Additionally, there are reports that Tesla’s Model 3 production is now nearing the 5,000 cars per week according to suppliers.

Remember Tencent took a 5 percent stake in Tesla this year, while there are plenty of other famed investors that would gladly take the other side of Chanos. Short selling is not easy, so I give him credit for being short for so long, considering the cost to borrow shares as well.

Biotech

It seems like the IBB goes up and down by one percent now on a daily basis, and I’m beginning to think that splitting the shares 3:1 did nothing but increase the trading and the vol.  The IBB ETF has now failed at $107 on three occasions, recently.

biotech

What do you think about this next chart? Does it make you want to run and buy it?

bitcoin pirce

Bitcoin

If you don’t know what it is, it is Bitcoin. I simply am not smart enough to understand what is going on here. Because when I look at Bitcoin, all I can see is a “currency” with no government backings, with nothing standing behind its value. $100 is worth $100 because it has the full faith and credit of the US government standing behind it. What stands behind the value of Bitcoin? Currency is worth something because it has the backing of a Government.

I will take a stab at this tonight, because quite frankly I’m bored, and because I’m tired of covering the same things.   Again I’m not expert in Bitcoin, nor do I wish to become one.  I am merely reading this like I would any other chart. That formation I circled in green below, I just do not like and looks very much like a head and shoulders, which means Bitcoin could be headed lower, and if I had to guess I’d say to $13,000 is likely the next stop.

Additionally, we can see the rise in the price from 11,000 to 17,000 the first time around came on higher and higher levels of volume. The more recent surge came on declining volume, while the relative strength index has fallen as well.  A bearish sign as well.

Take it for what it is worth.

bitcoin

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Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own shares of $TSLA $SWKS

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

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