Home » #Stocks

Tag: #Stocks

The Reflation Trade Is Dead, Plus Micron, Roku, Netflix, and Biotech's

The Reflation Trade Is Dead, Plus Micron, Roku, Netflix, and Biotech’s



The Reflation Trade Is Dead, Plus Micron, Roku, Netflix, and Biotech’s

MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN SHARES OF NFLX
© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This FREE Commentary In Your E-Mail! 

 

The Reflation Trade is Dead

If you haven’t seen this chart before, then take a close look at it. It is a comparison between the Nasdaq and Dow Jones Industrial since November 8, 2016. Of course, that was the day of the US election, and when President Trump was elected. It unleashed a wave of optimism that his pro-growth economic policies would stoke growth in the US economy, causing a spark for inflation, interest rates on bonds to rise, while significant tax reform would boost corporate earnings. It was nicknamed the “reflation trade,” centered around the bank, material, and industrial stocks

The chart below shows just how tight the correlation between the NASDAQ and the Dow were for almost two years, until, May, then something changed.

^DJI Chart

^DJI data by YCharts

The next chart shows the reflation trade is dead and is rotating into the risk-on, growth parts of the stock market, namely technology, biotech, and consumers.

I talk about this in my member video today, and went through why I believe this is happening, and what it means for these groups in the coming months.

I think overall, quickly, the divergence is only going to widen throughout the balance of the year.  You can watch the whole thing here, and you can get the first two-week’s free, so if you don’t like the service, cancel it. I won’t be insulted if you think it sucks!

XBI Chart

XBI data by YCharts


Micron

Microns results looked good all-around from my point of view. Shares were trading up some after hours to $60.50. I know I said I thought shares might go lower after results, and to this point, I’m wrong, yes. But let’s see how it trades tomorrow before we get too excited.

Remember after-hours trading is always tricky, and the stock traded about 10 million shares tonight. I know 10 million seems like an awful lot, but it is only 1/5 of today’s total volume of 56 million, and its 50-day average volume of 49 million.

An increase above $64 is a huge deal, and likely sends the stock back into the low 70’s. But tomorrow’s trading will be critical.

micron

S&P 500

The S&P 500 was up about 20 bps, but again clear divergence amongst sectors, with Financials and Materials down, and Industrials flat. Meanwhile, Biotech continues to soar, up over 2.3 percent, after a robust technical breakout, yesterday. Technology and Consumer were also better on the day.

I like that the S&P 500 retook support at 2,761. It is a positive. I know I was looking for 2,800 this week, and there are still two days for that to happen.

spx

There is no surprise I’m sure if  I tell you that Netflix, Amazon, and Facebook all hit new highs today.

Biotech

The Biotech XBI ETF reached new heights today as well, after its big breakout yesterday.

biotech

Roku

Roku shares got right up to resistance today and backed off. A rise above $48.20 probably sends towards $52.

roku

Netflix

 

So like if Netflix hits $425 tomorrow, what happens next? I mean really? I have no clue.  But if the last breakout resulted in a $133 point gain, like the previous, then this one takes it $466. We’ll see.

netflix

Inflation Watch

It would seem to me the dollar broke out. Keep an eye on oil.

dollar

Banks

You better watch those banks tomorrow, big stress test results. Is anyone really expecting some of the banks not to pass the stress test?

The falling triangle is just getting smaller and smaller. You know my thoughts.

banks

 

That is it, folks! Night

-Mike

Photo Credit via Flickr

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future. 

#biotech #technology #rotation #reflation #trade #Stocks #micron #netflix #roku #banks #dollar

 

Advertisements
Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Netflix Heading Highers, as Banks Plunge - The Week of June 18

Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Netflix Heading Higher, as Banks Plunge – The Week of June 18



Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Netflix Heading Higher, as Banks Plunge – The Week of June 18

MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN SHARES OF NFLX and googl
© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This FREE Commentary In Your E-Mail! 

 

The Week of June 18

The stock market rally will likely continue the week of June 18. The setup in the charts is still overly bullish for the S&P 500, as the relative strength index (RSI) continue to trend higher. My feeling is this week the S&P 500 rises above 2,800 and starts its move on towards 3,000 over the balance of the year. As we have talked about on many occasions earnings growth in 2018 is strong, and to this point, we haven’t seen those earning estimates adjust lower, and that is a good thing.

GDPNow is tracking the second quarter at 4.8 percent, with the next update coming on the 19th.  Additionally, a stronger dollar will help to weaken the Euro and give Europe a much-needed economic boost. But that also means that the price of oil will likely continue to its decline. I suspect we will see that continue this week as well.

spx

Technology

Technology stocks have stalled out over the past few trading sessions, but I suspect they will get into gear this week.

technoloy

Alphabet

Shares of Alphabet are nearing a really big breakout level at 1,172.

google

Microsoft

While Microsoft appears to be looking for a bounce back to the top its trading channel as well.

microsoft

Speaking of Microsoft I saw some really big bullish bets in the stock this week, in the January 2020 $135 calls. It is an aggressive round of buying in these calls considering the length of time till expiration, and considering the strike price is over 30 percent higher than the stocks current price.

Facebook

Facebook stock just continues to work higher along its uptrend, which started at the stocks low in March in April.

Amazon

Amazon’s stock continues to push higher, and I still think this works its way towards $1840.

amazon

Netflix

This is going to sound nuts when I say this, but I thought it was nuts when I said Netflix would rise to about $390 just a few short weeks ago. But the stock could be somewhere around $450 after earnings results. Based on those trends we have been tracking on Google Trends for subscriptions, it doesn’t seem impossible.  We know international growth has been on fire.  I suspect over the next week or so some sell-side analysts will likely start putting out some data which suggest Netflix may beat subscriber estimates, and that may lead to more upgrades like we saw out of Goldman this week.  It could be a case of being too optimistic on my part, but we have seen this same trend over the last few reporting periods.

netflix


Banks

It will be a big week for the banks, with Goldman and Morgan already falling below key support levels, and JP Morgan, Bank of America and Citigroup all sitting on support.

I’m just going to show the chart for BofA because they all look nearly the same.  I think many people look at the chart of these stocks and miss read them. They see the downtrend, and the uptrend, and assume that the banks are going to breakout to the upside. But instead you should be looking at the downtrend and the support level which runs flat at $29.20 on the chart.

We can see that each time the stock has hit that support level since the middle of March it has held, and never retested the long-term uptrend. It would suggest to me the support at $29.20 is the level we need to pay the closest attention to, and that is the pattern the chart is following, which is a falling triangle, and that is bearish. I think that means the banks and Bank of America are all heading lower.

 

bank of america

The 1o-2y treasury spread also hit fresh lows around 35 bps.

spread

Dollar and Oil

Also keep an eye on the dollar index, for a breakout above 95, and oil for breakdown towards $61.

dollar

oil

Good Luck this week

-Mike

Photo Credit via Flickr

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future. 

#amazon #microsoft #netflix #alpahbet #banks #jpmorgan #citigroup #bofa #dollar #oil #stocks #week #june18

Stocks Show Their Might Led by Chips and Biotech

Stocks Show Their Might Led by Chips and Biotech – The Daily Rundown



Stocks Show Their Might Led by Chips and Biotech – The Daily Rundown

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This FREE Commentary In Your E-Mail! 

 

We surely didn’t get the breakout I was looking for today, but we sure did get an exciting trading session, that told us about the market’s current state of mind. If this had been February, I think word of tensions with North Korea, or President Trump pulling out of a meeting with the leader of North Korea would have sent the market reeling lower by 1.5 to 2 percent on the S&P 500. But this is May and spirits seem much brighter.


Equities indeed sold-off following the news President Trump was calling off the summit with Kim Jung-Un of North Korea in June. The S&P 500 had an initial knee-jerk reaction taking it down about 1 percent by 11 AM. But the rest of the day was about price recovery, and by the close, the S&P 500 finished down about 20 bps, while the NASDAQ recovered all its losses to finish essentially flat. That is impressive, and I think it tells us a lot about the state of mind for the market. What had been a weak market just a few short weeks ago, seems to have become more confident.

^SPX Chart

^SPX data by YCharts


Risk-on Leadership

Like I wrote yesterday, we saw leadership prevail from the key players, with chips and biotech’s up on the day by nearly 40 bps, the risk-on sectors of the markets. Yes, Utilities rose by 80 bps on the day, but that has more to do with yields falling, with 10-year yields down to 2.98 percent, from 3.10 a week ago.

Chips mounted a rally, from down 80 bps at 11 am, to up 34 bps by the close, a significant recovery. What stocks led, well the usual suspects, Micron up 2.6 percent and now at $61.50, followed by AMD up 2.0 percent, On Semi up 3.6 percent, and Broadcom up 1.3 percent.


Micron

The advance in Micron continues to be impressive, shares are nearing a very big breakout, sitting right at resistance at $61.50. If it can manage to advance tomorrow, then it might still have some further to go, and $61.50 should offer support in the future should it climb and retrace.

Should Micron break out tomorrow and rise above its 52-week high of $63.42, then it may be on a trip towards $73, a price not seen in nearly two decades, back to the year 2000! Yes, a break out for Micron is a huge deal.

The bears will argue the DRAM pricing cannot stay strong, and Micron’s recent revenue and earnings surge cannot last, while the Bulls say the opposite.

Based on estimates to the year 2020, analysts are forecasting flat revenues and declining earnings, the street seems to believe the good times can’t last, which means Micron’s stock can continue to climb should it keep putting up strong results because a positive outcome is not baked into the stock.


Netflix

As noted yesterday, Netflix broke out, and it continued today with shares reaching an intraday high of $353. Some in the media were talking about Netflix now having a market cap just barely higher than Disney’s and Comcast, at $152.14 billion to Disney’s $152.03 billion, and Comcast at $145.78 billion. Most of that has to do with the fact that Comcast is nearly down 20 percent on the year.

DIS Market Cap Chart

DIS Market Cap data by YCharts

Plus, my knee-jerk reaction, why shouldn’t Netflix be worth more, aren’t Comcast and Disney trying to become like Netflix? Isn’t that why Disney is launching a direct to the consumer product. Isn’t that why Comcast is trying to steal Fox’s assets away from Disney? Of course, it is. Comcast and its cable line will be worthless in another few years when Verizon and the other wireless players launch 5G, and cord cutting start to accelerate at an even faster pace.

Imagine a world, where one day like your phone and your tablet, your TV will be able to access data, but not through wifi, but your wireless provider. It sounds crazy, but how hard could it be?

Why else would Comcast be so hot to get Fox? They want to keep building up their content library and become a content business.

-Mike


Advertisements

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

Recent Videos:

Be Careful With Oil, Netflix Breakout

More Positive Signs Develop, Plus Sub Mailbag

The Setup In Stocks Continues To Improve

Getting Long Apple

A Rise Back To 2,800 On The S&P Is In The Works

Free Articles Written By Mike:

Nvidia Seen Soaring to Record on Explosive Growth

Netflix Breakout May Lead to 14% Surge

3 Energy Stocks Poised for Big Breakouts

Macy’s Soaring Stock Seen Rising 11% Higher

JPMorgan’s Stock May Rebound to New Record High

3 Stocks Poised to Lead as S&P 500 Breaks Out

Alibaba’s Stock Seen Rising by 18% on Strong Growth

Micron Stock Seen Rising 14% on Raised Forecasts

Big Warning Signs for Starbucks Stock

P&G’s Battered Stock Ready for 10% Rebound

GE’s Breakout May Send Shares 15% Higher

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This Commentary In Your E-Mail! Subscribe

Photo credit via Flickr

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #netflix #micron #comcast #disney #amd #broadcom #biotech #chips #stocks #sp500

Stock Market Sentiment Is Turning More Bullish – For The Week of May 21



Stock Market Sentiment Is Turning More Bullish – For The Week of May 21

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This FREE Commentary In Your E-Mail! 

 

Michael kramer and the clients of mott capital own shares of Swks

The bull run in stocks was put on hold last week, but the current run is likely not over. In fact, there appears to be a clear separation that has taken place since the start of May. We find that Biotech and Semis are the leaders this month, with each up by over 7.5 percent. Followed by a group of Technology, Energy, the Small Cap Russell 2000, and Materials all up about 5 percent. Meanwhile, the S&P 500, Financials, Health Care, and Discretionary are all up about 1 to 2 percent. Finally, Utilities and Staples are down on the year.

XLK Chart

XLK data by YCharts


What Is The Market Telling Us

It tells us how the market is feeling on a couple of topics. The underperformance of the utilities and the staples is an apparent concern by investors regarding the more interest rate sensitive portions of the equity market. As interest rates rise, dividend yields must increase, and that puts downward pressure on the stock prices in the group. Additionally, it would also suggest a rotation out of the defensive part of the market.

Advertisements

Risk On Back

Meanwhile, the risk-on parts of the market, Biotech, and Semis are in favor and that would suggest that investors are feeling more comfortable moving back into the riskier more volatile parts of the market. It would indicate to me that if these two sectors continue to perform well, the market will continue to rise.

Even the second tier of leaders, in Technology, Energy, Small caps, and Materials are another layer of risk, and again it too supports the continued rise in the broader S&P 500.


Looking at The Semis

When we look at the semiconductors, AMD has been the best performing stock this month rising by about 20 percent, followed by Qorvo, Micron, Teradyne, and Skyworks.

Teradyne

Teradyne’s significant gains in May are more of a bounce back, because even with the 15 percent rise thus far in May, shares are still down by nearly 25 percent from their peak earlier this year. The poor company guidance led to be a big gap down in the technical chart. It seems like the stock wants to fill that gap back to around $40, but one must worry that once filled, the stock may continue that trend lower.

Qorvo

Qorvo has been a stock stuck in a trading pattern of up and down since the start of 2017. After a significant gain; shares could be heading back the other way.

qrvo

Micron

Micron gave us the big breakout, but to this point, resistance at $54 has proved challenging.  But what I take as a positive is that that stock has been rising on more volume, and the trend, for now, continues to be higher. I still think we reach around $61.50.


Waiting On Qualcomm/NXP

It will be interesting to see given the setup in these stocks if there shall be a rotation into other parts of the semiconductor space. Remember, we are still awaiting word on the Qualcomm/NXP deal from the regulators in China, regarding a potential approval. If that should happen, I think the sector will get an extra jolt, in a sign that that trade tensions has been easing between the US and China.

Advertisements

Staying Hot

For the most part, we need to continue to see the risk on the part of the market stay hot, and investors continue to move back into these parts of the markets.

Perceptions and Mood

At this point, much of where stock prices go will be driven by sentiment, mood, and perception more than anything else. Fundamentals are solid, with GDP for the second quarter tracking at 4.1 percent, according to GDPNow, through the mid-way point of the quarter. Meanwhile, earnings season for the first quarter of the year were very strong.


 

Strong Fundamentals

According to Dow Jones S&P Indices of the 91 percent of the companies in the S&P 500 to have reported results 77.25 percent beat estimates, while sales grew by about 9.5 percent versus a year ago. The S&P 500 is trading at just 16.7 times 2019 earnings estimates of $163.33 per share.

It is a robust fundamental setup, while the bulls appear to be coming back.

Mike

Advertisements

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

Recent Videos:

More Positive Signs Develop, Plus Sub Mailbag

The Setup In Stocks Continues To Improve

Getting Long Apple

A Rise Back To 2,800 On The S&P Is In The Works

Free Articles Written By Mike:

P&G’s Battered Stock Ready for 10% Rebound

GE’s Breakout May Send Shares 15% Higher

Nike’s Stock Is Poised for a Steep Pullback

Why J&J’s Stock May Plunge 10%

Big Warning Signs for Starbucks Stock

Snap’s Stock Seen Plunging 16% to New Record Low

Bank of America May Rise to Highest Level in 10 Years

P&G’s Battered Stock Ready for 10% Rebound

AMD’s Stock May Rebound by 12% on Better Outlook

Qualcomm Shares Seen Rising 9% on NXP Deal

Apple Traders Bet Stock Will Rise 9% to New Record

Citigroup’s Stock May Rebound by 10%

Micron May Break Out Leading to a 15% Rise

4 Biotech Stocks Set to Rise By 14% or More

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This Commentary In Your E-Mail! Subscribe

Photo credit via Flickr

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #stockmarket #may21 #bull #senitment #biotech #technology #semiconductors #chips #stocks 

The Best Earnings Season In Years Makes Stocks Cheap

With earnings starting to wind down, it is becoming quite clear that this has been one of the best earnings seasons in years! With nearly 81 percent of companies in the S&P 500 reporting results through May 3, almost 77.5 percent have beat earnings estimates, while almost 17 percent have missed, and 5.6 percent have met. I compiled the chart from data from Dow Jones S&P Indices, and it shows that to this point, this has been by far the best quarter when it comes to companies beating expectations since 2012.

Data From S&P Dow Jones Indices

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This FREE Commentary In Your E-Mail! 

 

Cheap To Earnings

According to Dow Jones S&P, 303 of the 405 companies reported so far, have beat on sales estimates as well. Sales in the first quarter are estimated to have risen by nearly 10 percent as well, making this quarter more than just about the bottom line.

Earnings for the full year in 2018 are forecast to rise to $153.06, and $170.48 in 2019. It leaves the S&P 500 trading at 17.4 times 2018 estimates and only 15.6 times 2019 earnings estimates.


Cheap To Rates

Even with the rising interest rate scenario investors have become concerned with, the ratio of the 10-year Treasury yield to the S&P 500 yield, is only at 1.56. Explained,  it means that the 10-year yield at 2.95 on April 30 is 1.56 times more than the S&P 500 yield of 1.89 percent. The average ratio since 1962 is 2.19 with a standard deviation of 0.86, a range of 1.32 to 3.05. So the S&P 500 is still on the cheap side of the historical average, and the historical norm. The chart below shows us just that.

Stocks Are Cheap

It is clear from the chart above that in late 1990’s and early 2000’s, which saw the ratio explode as the stocks soared, in the bubble years, just how overvalued the market was to bonds at the time. So at this point, yields would have to rise a lot further. It would take yields on the ten-year to reach 4 percent to get to the historical average, before stocks would start looking for expensive to bonds.

For, now it continues to be tough to say that stocks are overvalued to earnings or bond yields.


GDP Growth

I have become increasingly more bullish over the past few weeks, and I expected to remain optimistic for some time to come. In fact, I think the recent slow down in the US economy is also going to start picking up rather nicely. In fact, over the past ten years, earnings growth has been a leading indicator to US GDP growth, as the chart below shows. That would suggest over the next two quarter we should see a significant ramp up in GDP growth.

S&P 500 Earnings Per Share TTM Chart

S&P 500 Earnings Per Share TTM data by YCharts

It also continues to support my thesis that we will see an acceleration in job creation.

Advertisements

Low Inflation

But I still believe inflation levels will remain low, and that will keep a lid on Treasury rates from rising too much. Counter-intuitive, yes, but we need to remember also we are living in a very different time, where automation and companies like Amazon are continuing to make things cheaper for the consumer.


The Fed

Additionally, the Fed will not want to be responsible for killing the party and inverting the yield curve. With two year yields at 2.5 percent and the ten-year at just under 3 percent, the spread is now only 50 bps. One more rate hike gets the two-year to probably around 2.75, and that is all the Fed will be able to in terms of rate hikes in 2018. I still we get only one more.

-Mike

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This FREE Commentary In Your E-Mail! 

 

Advertisements

Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets – An In-depth Global Macro Stock Market Commentary – In Video Format – See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

Recent Videos:

Getting Long Apple

A Rise Back To 2,800 On The S&P Is In The Works

Why It Is Time To Dump Starbucks, Plus A Look At ACAD

The Market Continues To Sink

It’s Back! Apple Investors Are Worried Once Again

A Review Of Netflix, IBM And Earnings Outlook

Free Articles Written By Mike:

Why S&P 500 Stocks May Rebound 6% Short Term

Chipmakers May Soon Rebound to New Highs

Biotech Stocks Set to Breakout

AMD Options Traders Betting on 16% Stock Decline

Eli Lilly Shares Seen Rising 18% as Profits Surge

Biotech: Nektar’s Stock May Fall 15% Further

Tech Stocks on Verge of a Big Breakout

Why Apple May Soar If It’s Valued Like Netflix

Intel’s Stock Seen Jumping 16% on Raised Forecasts

Facebook’s Stock May Plunge 8% Short Term

Why MasterCard Shares May Outperform Visa

Why McDonald’s Big Stock Rally Won’t Last

Apple Traders Bet on 8% Drop as Earnings Approach

Under Armour’s Stock Faces a 14% Decline Short-Term

Alibaba Stock May Rebound 14% Over Short Term

AT&T Stock Faces a 14% Decline

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This Commentary In Your E-Mail! Subscribe

-OR-

[vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”]

Photo credit via Flickr

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #stocks #yields #rates #earnings 

 

 

Earnings take center stage

It Is Time For Earnings To Take Center Stage

It Is Time For Earnings To Take Center Stage

Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own GOOGL

Earnings take center state with companies like Facebook reporting today, and tomorrow we get Microsoft, Intel, and Amazon. It doesn’t get much bigger, and Facebook didn’t disappoint.

But first…

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This FREE Commentary In Your E-Mail! 

 

Broader Markets

The S&P 500 continued to bounce around today, with the index finishing the day slightly higher up about 20 bps. The index managed to stay on the breakout side of the of the downtrend we crossed on April 11, and it has acted as support, to this point.

spx

Mott Capital Management, Michael Kramer

Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets

An In-depth Global Macro Premium Stock Market Commentary

In Video Format- See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Premium Subscription Based Membership

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

VIX

Meanwhile, the VIX has remained on the other side of 20, and that is also a positive.

vix


Facebook

Facebook, may have put some questions to rest, with its strong quarterly results. The company reported daily active user was up 13 percent to 1.45 billion on average. The second quarter will give a better reading of active users post the data scandal, but my gut suggests that the impact will be minmal, at least from my usage, and I have noticed a slowdown in my friends ussage either.

Revenue for the quarter grew to $11.97 billion, versus estimates of $11.41 billion. EPS came in better than expected, at $1.69, vs. estimates of $1.35.  Shares were up about $12 in the after-hours trading around $171. I got the retest of $150; post-results wrong!


AMD

Another call I got completely wrong was AMD, shares of that one are jumping after hours as well, to around $10.70. The company reported better than expected earnings per share of $0.11 per share, vs. estimates of $0.09 per share. Meanwhile, revenue also topped estimates at $1.65 billion, vs. estimates of $1.57 billion. The company also sees revenue in the second quarter at $1.725 billion, better than estimates of $1.57 billion.

0 for 2, out of five earnings predictions, and if you count Alphabet from Monday, that makes 0 for 3.

Advertisements

Tomorrow

Tomorrow Amazon, Microsoft, and Intel report. I think if Intel can put a good report on the back of Texas Instruments, and Qualcomm it will give the semis a good jolt. The group has been walloped in recent days and needs to some positive newsflow.


Boeing

Boeing had a nice bounce today following its strong results, but the stock action didn’t impress me so much. Shares where up about 4 percent, basically regain the lost ground from yesterday.

boeing


Cat

To this point, Caterpillar has been able to stay above support at $143, and I think that is a huge positive. It is a critical level for the stock.

cat

Advertisements

Yield

Finally, the 10-year got to a significant level today, right around 3.04 percent. We could see a considerable acceleration higher if we rise much above current levels.

That’s it.

-Mike

Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets – An In-depth Global Macro Stock Market Commentary – In Video Format – See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

Recent Videos:

The Market Continues To Sink

It’s Back! Apple Investors Are Worried Once Again

A Review Of Netflix, IBM And Earnings Outlook

Taking A Look The Banks, And Prepping For Earnings Season

Passive Investing May Not Work In 2018

Stock Surge, A Breakout Is Close

Trade War Worries Returns

Free Articles Written By Mike:

Microsoft Traders See 10% Stock Drop as Earnings Near

Why Biogen’s Stock Rebound Is Good News for Biotechs

Netflix Stock Seen Rising 11% Amid Raised Forecasts

Micron, Intel Seen Rebounding 10% Short Term

Merck Shares Seen Rising 12% as Profits Jump

Chipmaker Stocks May Fall 10% Over the Short Term

Biotech Stocks Face a Steep Drop

AMD’s Stock Faces 14% Swings on Uncertain Earnings

Traders Bet Qualcomm’s NXP Takeover Will Fail

Apple’s Stock Sharp Decline May Be an Overreaction

Facebook Bulls Forecast Massive Gains for Stock

Why Qualcomm’s Stock Bulls May Be Dreaming

eBay Options Traders See 15% Stock Drop Ahead

Why FedEx Stock Is Ready to Fly

Verizon’s Stock Breakout May Lead To 12% Gain

eBay Options Traders See 15% Stock Drop Ahead

Salesforce Options Traders Bet Stock Will Rise 11%

Why American Express Shares May Jump 14%

Why Micron’s Stock Is Running Out of Gas

Why Big Bank Stocks Are About to Crumble

Why McDonald’s Stock Turnaround May Fizzle

Square’s Stock Is Facing Steeper Declines

Netflix’s Breakout May Boost Stock to Record Highs

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This Commentary In Your E-Mail! Subscribe

-OR-

[vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”]

 

Photo credit via Flickr

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #stockmarket #tesla #chips #stocks #model3 #netflix #verizon #ibm 

It Is Simple Some Stocks Are Just Overvalued, It Is Obvious!

It Is Simple Some Stocks Are Just Overvalued, It Is Obvious!

It Is Simple Some Stocks Are Just Overvalued, It Is Obvious!

Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own shares of GOOGL and UL 

Volatility continues in 2018, and again the narrative around the reasons for the volatility continues to shift. Earnings have not been too bad so far, but still, the significant results continue to roll out the rest of this week and next. So it is yet to be seen what direction earnings will keep sending the market. But in some cases it is crystal clear why stocks are going, they are merely overvalued, and no I am not talking about the FANG’s, nor most of the Techs. I’m talking about staples and industrials like Boeing, McDonalds and Home Depot.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This FREE Commentary In Your E-Mail! 

 

Wait, What?

Listening to the TV all afternoon, I got the impression that investors seemed surprised that 2018 would be the peak regarding earnings growth from a percentage standpoint. It has always seemed fairly obvious to me that 2018, earnings growth was being aided higher by the one-year tax benefit, and that growth would return to “normal” growth rates in 2019. The rate of growth in 2019 is undoubtedly nothing to dismiss, because as of right now that growth is expected to be around 10 percent, and with an S&P 500 trading at roughly 15.5 times 2019 earnings estimates, the stock market seems relatively cheap.

Mott Capital Management, Michael Kramer

Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets

An In-depth Global Macro Premium Stock Market Commentary

In Video Format- See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Premium Subscription Based Membership

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

Economic Slowdown?

To this point, I see no evidence of an economic slowdown. A company like Unilever saw pretty good growth in its first quarter with sales growth and volume growth of 3.4 percent, which again is a pretty healthy number for a company of its size, while emerging markets grew at a much faster pace.


Just Overvalued

I think in some cases, there are merely stocks that advanced so much ahead of these big earnings expectations, now it is time to sell the news.

BA Chart

BA data by YCharts

Companies like Home Depot, Boeing, McDonald’s, Lockheed Martin, Caterpillar were all up tremendous amount from the start of 2017 through the end of January 2018, much more than the S&P 500.  Boeing even now is up nearly 112 percent since the beginning of 2017! 112 percent! It and the others like it are trading at some of their highest earnings multiples in some time, and in some cases, those companies still need to see further multiple contractions.


Slowing Growth

The market is also looking to the future, and while Caterpillar is seen growing earnings in 2018 by over 36 percent, those earnings are seen rising by only 13 percent next year, while Boeings earnings growth is seen slowing from 37 percent to just 18 percent next year, while revenue is seen climbing only 5 percent! Better keep buying back that stock or improving margins. Home Depot is no different going from 27 percent to only 7 percent.

BA PE Ratio (Forward 1y) Chart

BA PE Ratio (Forward 1y) data by YCharts

How do you feel about paying 20 times one-year forwards earnings for growth in the mid to high single digits? Yeah, they are expensive. I have been saying this about McDonald’s for quite some time, with its monster earnings growth of about 14 percent in 2018, on an 8 percent drop in revenue! Give me a break; the stock is up nearly 30 percent! And it is no different for any of the others, and these are just a few.  The Banks may be another group in the same situation.

Advertisements

Google or McDonald’s

Right now it would seem the selling is indiscriminate, but the cream will rise to the top, because companies like Alphabet are seen growing by 22 percent in 2018, slowing to 17 percent in 2019, on 11.5 percent revenue growth,  while trading at only 21 times, so I ask,  would you rather own Alphabet or McDonald’s? Alphabet every day of the week hands down.

If McDonald’s can trade at 19 times earnings than Alphabet must be the steal of a lifetime.


Moving on then to other topics….

VIX

The VIX got right back to nearly 20 today, before backing off. Remember 20 has been a support/resistance line, and the fact that it backed off is at that level is good.

vix

The S&P 500 also managed to find a bounce at least for today off its downtrend.

Advertisements

Technology

The technology earnings are going to be extemely important the rest of this week, because the setup in the technology ETF XLK looks really bad. I’m hoping that is not a head and shoulder formation, because if it is then a fall back to $61 or further could be in the cards. With all the big results this week, those results could be a tipping point for the group.

technology

The one piece of good news so far is that Texas Insrutuments appeared to report solid results and for now at least the stock is finding a bounce.


Facebook

The big one tomorrow will be Facebook, and the stock melted today, falling below support at $161.50. It could be headed back to retesting the lows around $150. The chart clearly shows the stock was unable to rise above resisntacnce around $168.

facebook


Apple

Apple fell again today, and now sits at $163, and the company still has a week to go before results. Apple’s results can not come soon enough.

Micron

Micron staged a head fake breakout on April, 18 and it has been nothing but down since that time. Is there a rise in Micron’s shares in the future? I’m not sure, but the chart looks pretty weak, at current levels, and more declines may be in store.

micron

Advertisements

Amazon

Amazon shares continue to trend lower too, and they are expected to report Thursday after the close. The chart like the others looks fairly weak. The earnings will matter  a great deal when they are released. We can see we back to within $1440 on the chart, and that again is an important level for the stock.

amazon

That is it!

-Mike

 

Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets – An In-depth Global Macro Stock Market Commentary – In Video Format – See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

Recent Videos:

The Market Continues To Sink

It’s Back! Apple Investors Are Worried Once Again

A Review Of Netflix, IBM And Earnings Outlook

Taking A Look The Banks, And Prepping For Earnings Season

Passive Investing May Not Work In 2018

Stock Surge, A Breakout Is Close

Trade War Worries Returns

Free Articles Written By Mike:

Netflix Stock Seen Rising 11% Amid Raised Forecasts

Micron, Intel Seen Rebounding 10% Short Term

Merck Shares Seen Rising 12% as Profits Jump

Chipmaker Stocks May Fall 10% Over the Short Term

Biotech Stocks Face a Steep Drop

AMD’s Stock Faces 14% Swings on Uncertain Earnings

Traders Bet Qualcomm’s NXP Takeover Will Fail

Apple’s Stock Sharp Decline May Be an Overreaction

Facebook Bulls Forecast Massive Gains for Stock

Why Qualcomm’s Stock Bulls May Be Dreaming

eBay Options Traders See 15% Stock Drop Ahead

Why FedEx Stock Is Ready to Fly

Verizon’s Stock Breakout May Lead To 12% Gain

eBay Options Traders See 15% Stock Drop Ahead

Salesforce Options Traders Bet Stock Will Rise 11%

Why American Express Shares May Jump 14%

Why Micron’s Stock Is Running Out of Gas

Why Big Bank Stocks Are About to Crumble

Why McDonald’s Stock Turnaround May Fizzle

Square’s Stock Is Facing Steeper Declines

Netflix’s Breakout May Boost Stock to Record Highs

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This Commentary In Your E-Mail! Subscribe

-OR-

[vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”]

 

Photo credit via Flickr

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #stockmarket #tesla #chips #stocks #model3 #netflix #verizon #ibm 

Chip stocks continue to sink, tesla register 5,000 model 3's

Chip Stocks Continue To Sink, Tesla Registers 5,000 Model 3’s

Chip Stocks Continue To Sink, Tesla Registers 5,000 Model 3’s

Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own shares of VZ, TSLA, NFLX, and GOOGL

The S&P 500 managed to finish the day flat, and for the most part, this 2,670 level on the S&P 500 continues to hold.

Mott Capital Management, Michael Kramer

Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets

An In-depth Global Macro Premium Stock Market Commentary

In Video Format- See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Premium Subscription Based Membership

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

Chip Stocks

The semi companies continue to struggle, with the SOXX down by over 1.3 percent, but some stocks were down by far more. The chart on the Soxx ETF surely doesn’t look great, and the big test for the ETF comes around $167.

chips

The relative strength index is still trending lower, and unless Intel, Qualcomm, and Texas Instruments can say something more positive, it might hard to turn the direction of this group.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This FREE Commentary In Your E-Mail! 

 

Verizon

Verizon reports results tomorrow, and what will be the most thing that comes from the report? Well, any commentary the companies give around the upgrade cycle of smartphones will be interesting. Remember it was Verizon that told us last quarter, that they saw an elongation of the upgrade cycle. That will give us a good sense of where we stand with the chip stocks until we find out details on next iPhone launch from Apple.


Tesla

Tesla registered over 5,100 new VIN with NHTSA, which is the highest total I can remember. This comes after the company shut production for a week. Again, we will need to see what that number the next time they register VIN’s, and just how much time has passed. That could help us get a handle on the weekly production rate.

 


Netflix

Did Netflix the gap today? Maybe, it sure was impressive where the stock stopped falling and where it stabilized.

netflix


IBM

IBM shares have struggled since its quarterly results, for apparent reason, but the stock is pretty close to having an even bigger fallout.

Ibm

Advertisements

Alphabet

Finally, Alphabet reported strong results beating on both the top and bottom line. But for now, investors are not happy enough to send shares higher in the after-hours. The stock is mostly flat at that moment. I haven’t had the chance to dig through the numbers yet, but when I do will be sure to share any feedback, if I should anything worth noting.

Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets – An In-depth Global Macro Stock Market Commentary – In Video Format – See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

Recent Videos:

It’s Back! Apple Investors Are Worried Once Again

A Review Of Netflix, IBM And Earnings Outlook

Taking A Look The Banks, And Prepping For Earnings Season

Passive Investing May Not Work In 2018

Stock Surge, A Breakout Is Close

Trade War Worries Returns

Free Articles Written By Mike:

Chipmaker Stocks May Fall 10% Over the Short Term

Biotech Stocks Face a Steep Drop

AMD’s Stock Faces 14% Swings on Uncertain Earnings

Traders Bet Qualcomm’s NXP Takeover Will Fail

Apple’s Stock Sharp Decline May Be an Overreaction

Facebook Bulls Forecast Massive Gains for Stock

Why Qualcomm’s Stock Bulls May Be Dreaming

eBay Options Traders See 15% Stock Drop Ahead

Why FedEx Stock Is Ready to Fly

Verizon’s Stock Breakout May Lead To 12% Gain

eBay Options Traders See 15% Stock Drop Ahead

Salesforce Options Traders Bet Stock Will Rise 11%

Why American Express Shares May Jump 14%

Why Micron’s Stock Is Running Out of Gas

Why Big Bank Stocks Are About to Crumble

Why McDonald’s Stock Turnaround May Fizzle

Square’s Stock Is Facing Steeper Declines

Netflix’s Breakout May Boost Stock to Record Highs

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This Commentary In Your E-Mail! Subscribe

-OR-

[vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”]

 

Photo credit via Flickr

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #stockmarket #tesla #chips #stocks #model3 #netflix #verizon #ibm 

stock market rally

Stock Market Sees Big Rally, This Time It Maybe For Real


Stock Market Sees Big Rally, This Time It Maybe For Real

I think it is time for the overnight equity future traders, to hang up the cleats and put the jersey away and call it a career. Either that or the Algo’s need some severe tweaking for the keywords they are searching in the headlines. It seems the direction of the futures on these big down days should not be trusted and should be treated as suspect.

But the clues were all around us before the first tick took place that the sell-off would not last.

Mott Capital Management, Michael Kramer

Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets

An In-depth Global Macro Premium Stock Market Commentary

In Video Format- See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Premium Subscription Based Membership

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

Clue #1 – China

The first clue, the Shanghai Composite last night hardly budged on the news of the new tariffs. In fact, the algo’s in China appears to play the same game of fill the gap, as our algo’s. Are the duties imposed by China, and those imposed by the US only detrimental to the US economy, and immune to China? Of course not.

shanghai

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This FREE Commentary In Your E-Mail! 

 


Clue #2 -S&P Futures Trader Wins Big, The Rest Should Go Home

Clue #2 came around 7 am when a huge block went off in the S&P 500 futures. Pretty much near the lows, and the rest was pretty much history. This same “institution, trader” has now pulled off a similar trade a few times since the February lows, and each time the market has rallied. My guess is that it is the same institution because it has happened around the same time of the day on each occurrence.

S&P 500

I even posted a tweet about it, as soon I saw it!

Technology

Remember I said I wasn’t getting fooled on the next rally until I saw the XLK breakout, well today it did!

technology

Advertisements

S&P 500

The S&P 500 broke out above two downtrends. The next test comes around 2,675, then 2,690.

S&P 500 stock market


Google

Google broke out too, a rebound back to 1,080 could be on the way.

google stock market

Facebook

Facebook has seen $151 hold like a rock on multiple occasions, I still think it moves up to $166.

facebook

Intel

Intel bounced right off support and looks like it going over $50.

intel


Micron

Micron broke out too and is likely turning back towards $56.

micron

 

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This FREE Commentary In Your E-Mail! 

 

Tesla

While the Tesla bears had their moment of glory, and just like that, it’ is gone. Sorry guys, hope you enjoyed it. tesla

Remember to watch out for those future traders tomorrow morning, but at least the next time you will be looking for confirmation in other markets.

Good Luck!

Mike

Advertisements


Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets – An In-depth Global Macro Stock Market Commentary – In Video Format – See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

Recent Videos:

Stock Market Rallies, Is It For Real?

Today’s Rally Looks Fragile

What Is Going On With The Stock Market! It Is Insanity!

Put On Your Rally Hats

The Bottom Is Close

Where Does The Stock Market Go From Here

Free Articles Written By Mike:

Why the VIX Index Is a Bullish Sign for Stocks

Apple Stock Faces 10% Short-Term Pullback

4 Consumer Stocks That May Plunge to New Lows

Broadcom’s Battered Stock Poised for 12% Rebound

Boeing’s Stock Seen Falling Into Bear Market

IBM Traders See Stock Plunging 20%

3 Hot Biotech Stocks Facing Sharp Declines

Under Armour’s Stock Still Has Further to Fall

Intel Traders Face Big Losses As Chipmaker’s Stock Drops

Why Facebook Stock May Rebound By 25%

Amazon’s Stock May Plunge 10% Further

Tech Stocks’ Growth Engine Faces a Big Slowdown

3 Big Biotech Stocks Poised for More Declines

Why Chip Stocks May Rebound to Record Highs

Take-Two Stock Seen Rising 20% on E-Sports Demand

Square’s Soaring Stock Is Due for a Correction

Nike’s Stock Bulls May Get Burned

Why AMD Options Traders Are Bearish Long Term

Improving Earnings Will Push Stock Prices Higher

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This Commentary In Your E-Mail! Subscribe

-OR-

[vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”]

Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own NFLX, GOOGL, TSLA

Photo credit via Flickr

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #tech #technology #facebook #google #tesla #micron #intel #futures #equities #stocks

 

 

 

 

The Stock Market Will Continue To Rise As Red Flag’s Blow Away


The Stock Market Will Continue To Rise As Red Flag’s Blow Away

Just like that the stock market recouped nearly half its loses from last week, with the S&P 500 surging by almost 2.7 percent. Maybe it is me, but did anything materially change from Friday? Did all those Red Flag’s blow away? Did the trade war that everyone feared suddenly evaporate? Did China agree to cave and give us all of our demands? Did the surging Libor mystery finally get solved? Did the Fed stop paring its balance sheet? Did Elon Musk create a time machine that allowed us to bypass 1987, and go straight to 1988? I want to know what change, because from the way I see it, nothing materially changed since Thursday or Friday.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This FREE Commentary In Your E-Mail! 

 

Buying More Semis?

The Chinese have agreed to buy more semiconductors from the US; I’m curious to know just how much more they are planning to buy because I can’t seem to figure that part out. Is it $1 more or the $14 billion that Intel’s market cap went up today? How about they first approve Qualcomm buying NXPI, without Qualcomm having to give more concessions?

So at the end of the day nothing changed, except perception.

Mott Capital Management, Michael Kramer

Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets

An In-depth Global Macro Premium Stock Market Commentary

In Video Format- See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Premium Subscription Based Membership

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

Trade War Is BS

It is still my belief the Trade War theory was complete BS. If it was on trade war fears why did the banks get slammed the most? Facebook had plenty of reasons to go lower as well. Then my favorite is the dollar! The dollar went down last week on heightening trade war concerns, but yet trade tensions easied over the weekend, but guess what, the dollar still went down today. Undoubtedly the dollar should have surged on the relief of the trade war tensions. You see a surge higher? I don’t.

dollar


Financials Fall

Here is a five-day chart of the S&P 500, financials, and technology starting on March 20. Financials had a more prominent jump following the Fed results, and by the way, had the more significant decline. Notice which group is still underperforming as of today’s massive rise? The financials. 

Here is another chart, with the materials and industrials, right in the middle of the trade war tensions, which group performed worse? The financials. Which group is still trailing? The financials.

XLF Price Chart

XLF Price data by YCharts

So why did the banks go down so much? Are they really in the middle of the trade war tensions? Usually, banks go up and down based on interest rates, and spreads, right?


Not As Many Hikes

I still believe that the trade war narrative has been overplayed. The real culprit here are rates, and you can see it in the dot plot that the Fed likes to put out. It is also the reason why the dollar has continued to fall, and the reason why 2-year yields went down after the FOMC. The majority of the plots on the dot plot chart fall between 2 and 2.25 percent. The effective Fed funds rate today for all intensive purposes is 1.7 percent, 2 more hikes equal 50 bps, which takes the rate to 2.2 percent! It means that we likely don’t get four rate hikes in 2018, just three.

When did we start talking about four rates? After the January jobs report, with the hot wage growth, that sparked inflation fears. What was one of the hottest groups in the stock market from February 8 through March 20?  Technology, which surged by nearly 10 percent, and the banks which were up almost 6 percent, and what was the worse performing group during that time, well the utilities. Why did the utitlites underperform? Becuase rising rates aren’t good for high yield equities.

XLF Chart

XLF data by YCharts

The Dollar

What about the dollar, you know it was up from February 2 through March 20 by 1.4 percent, and down 1.5 percent since March 20. Higher inflation means higher rates, suggests a strong dollar, and vice versa.

Advertisements

Why Do Banks Matter

So why did the market go down last week? Because investors realized that they weren’t going to get four rates hikes in 2018, and that sparked the sell-off in the banks, and that is the reason they are still the worst performing sector over the past five days. While JP Morgan, Berkshire, Citigroup, Bank of America, and Well Fargo, have a weighting of 6.4 percent in the SPY ETF.

Or Facebook?

Why did the market go down last week? Because Facebook had some really crappy news and it took the hottest sector down with it.  Why does it matter if Facebook is down? Because it has a 6.5 percent weighting in the XLK, and 5 percent weight in the QQQ’s and 1.73 percent weight in the SPY. Is that reason enough?

How Will I Know If I’m Right?

So how will I know if I’m right, well banks should continue to underperform along with Facebook, while the rest of the market continues to recover.

Night!

-Mike

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This Commentary In Your E-Mail! Subscribe

-OR-

[vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”]

Photo credit via Flickr

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the

#banks #sp500 #stockmarket #technology #stocks

 

stock market, micron, apple, facebook, amazon, netflix

Why The Stock Market and Micron Went Down, And Where They Go From Here


Why The Stock Market and Micron Went Down, And Where They Go From Here

Trade Wars? Again with this? So lets see $50 billion in tariffs with China? Well, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, and Berkshire lost a total of nearly $81 billion in market cap today. According to data, I compiled from Ycharts, all the stocks that make up the S&P 500 lost a total of $648 billion in market cap today! More than ten times the tariffs. Sorry folks, it was more than tariff concerns.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This FREE Commentary In Your E-Mail! 

 

Look at the banks; the XLF was down over 3.75 percent on the day, the best performing sector the utilities, up about 35 bps. Why? Well because the treasury yield on the 10-year yield has fallen in recent days from roughly 2.91 percent to 2.81 percent, while the two-year yield fell from 2.36 percent to 2.28.  That means the spread of the 10-2 yield is continuing to contract, and when spreads on yields contract that’s bad for banks. Utilities are interest rate sensitive, so when yield falls, the prices on the utilities rise.

But the dollar also continues to trade poorly and doesn’t seem to reflect an overly hawkish Fed either.

So what is going on here today? I don’t know. It appears to be a massive combination of the Facebook issue, the Fed, and a hint of tariffs. But where we go from here is all that matters. The next significant level again comes at 2,633, and I would not be surprised to see the S&P 500 retest the lows from early February.

spx

But tomorrow is Friday, and Friday in the past has seen pretty sharp rallies, we shall see.

Bottom line, I’m trying to figure this all out just like you are! Seriously.

Mott Capital Management, Michael Kramer

Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets

An In-depth Global Macro Premium Stock Market Commentary

In Video Format- See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Premium Subscription Based Membership

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

Vix

The vix is also once again in backwardation.

^VIX Chart

^VIX data by YCharts


Micron

Micron is bouncing around after hours, and the outlook is what I wanted to see, and I found it in the prepared remarks. On a non-GAAP basis, the company is looking for revenue at $7.4 billion at the mid-point, with EPS of $2.83, in the fiscal third quarter. Ycharts is showing that analysts had been looking for earnings of $2.67 and revenue of $7.297 billion, which is solid guidance, but not a blowout and that is likely problem #1. But if you look hard enough, I can find one more minor detail that might be what the market is reacting too in the estimates.  The rising expenses.

At the mid-point, we get Revenue of $7.4 billion, gross margins of 58.5 percent, operating expenses of $725 million, and operating income of $3.7 billion. But when start filling in blanks, we get the table below. Notice what happens to operating income if we use the mid-point on all the items above it. It comes at the low end of the companies guidance and results in the operating income and operating margins declining, sequentially.

FQ2’18 FQ3’18
Revenue  $ 7,351.00  $ 7,400.00
COGS  $ 3,055.00  $ 3,071.00
Gross Profit  $ 4,296.00  $ 4,329.00
GP Margin 58.4% 58.5%
Operating EXP  $  (666.00)  $  (725.00)
Operating Income  $ 3,630.00  $ 3,604.00
Operating Margin 49.38% 48.70%

Well see what happens tomorrow. Otherwise I think these numbers are good, and the guidance was solid, but not blow out.

There were nearly 7.6 million shares traded after-hours a healthy dose of volume, and the stock was down to about $56.50 off a close of $58.92. I think there is more downside to go.

Amazon

I think you need to be careful with Amazon if this breaks $1500, I think it will have much further to fall, maybe below $1300.

amazon

Advertisements

Microsoft

Microsoft is broken now, and the odds of a fall to $84.50 just increased dramatically, and getting back over $91.50 just got that much harder.

microsoft

Facebook

Facebook is hanging by a thread, and should it fall, $148 is next.

facebook


Apple

Apple found a bounce for now at $168.

apple

Advertisements

Netflix

I still think Netflix is head to $295.

netflix

Night

Advertisements


Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets – An In-depth Global Macro Stock Market Commentary – In Video Format – See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

Recent Videos:

Watch The Dollar, Not Stocks

Why Facebook Has Further To Fall

Previewing Micron And Oracle

Looking At Twitter

Free Articles Written By Mike:

2 Chip Stocks On The Verge Of Steep Declines

Microsoft’s Stock May Soon Face Sharp Declines

Biotech Acadia’s Stock May Double On Sales Spike

AMD’s Stock Is on the Verge of a Breakdown

Why Cisco’s Hot Stock May Cool Off Fast

Why GM’s Stock May Stage A Sharp Rebound

Oracle’s Stock Faces Steep Declines Ahead

Why Facebook Shares Could Fall 20%

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This Commentary In Your E-Mail! Subscribe

-OR-

[vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”]

Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own NFLX

Photo credit via Flickr

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #micron #SP500 #stocks #amazon #apple #netflix #yields #dollar #currency #facebook 

 

 

 

 

 

biotech technology nasdaq 100 stocks

Biotech, Technology, And NASDAQ 100 All Breakout – S&P 500 Back To 2,880?


Biotech, Technology, And NASDAQ 100 All Breakout – S&P 500 Back To 2,880?

Stocks were in rally mode again after a better than expected job report boosted the S&P 500 by about 1.5 percent. Any hesitation I have had over the past couple of day seems to indicate that the market, technology, and biotech stocks have now broken out, and that means they may have more upside potential from here.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This FREE Commentary In Your E-Mail! 

 

Mott Capital Management, Michael Kramer

Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets

An In-depth Global Macro Premium Stock Market Commentary

In Video Format- See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Premium Subscription Based Membership

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

Let Michael help you! Have questions? Let Michael help you find the answer. Sign-up and get two weeks free: Watch the latest video: Market Surges Breakouts All Over

S&P 500 A Rise Back To 2,880

The S&P 500 is approaching the upper bound of the 2016 lows/Brexit trend line. When the index crossed over the trend back in late December, it resulted in the index surging all the way to 2,880. I think the same thing might happen again this time, as the fundamentals of the economy, the job market, and earnings continue to look very strong.

S&P 500


Biotech Stocks

The NASDAQ biotech ETF cleared two extremely critical levels over the past two days,  resistance at $111.50, and then again today $113.70. That could be a sign the ETF is set to rise all the way back to $119.25.

biotech

We see a similar confirmation in the iShares Biotech ETF (XBI) as well, with the potential for to rise to roughly $98.

One can see well the winners outweigh the losers, with only 2 of the top 25 stocks down.

biotech


Technology Stocks

Technology names broke out as well with the shares Technology ETF (XLK) soaring as well, quickly clearing the resistance level at $69.25.

technology

In fact, like the biotech stocks, the distribution of the technology sector is heavily favored to the winners, with only three stocks lower on the day.  technology

Advertisements

Microsoft

Microsoft has cleared resistance at $95.70 and has made a new all-time high.

microsoft

Netflix

Netflix shares have broken out from its two day period of consolidation.

netflix

Nvidia

Nvidia shares have also broken above its downward trend as well. My guess is thing can run towards $260.

nvidia

Alphabet

Alphabet shares appear to be playing fill the gap and could make a run towards $1200

alphabet

Advertisements

Nasdaq 100

Finally, the Nasdaq 100, has broken out.

nasdaq 100

That is it for a Friday.

Advertisements


Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets – An In-depth Global Macro Stock Market Commentary – In Video Format – See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

Recent Videos:

Market Surges Breakouts All Over

Roku Borrow Rate Surge, Biotech Fakeout?

Tech And Biotech Look Weak, Plus Subscriber Mailbag

What The Heck Happened

Breaking Down Acadia’s Results, Exploring Trends In Chips Stocks

Stocks In Rally Mode, More To Come

Crazy Market Reaction Following Fed Minutes, Plus Subscriber Mail Bag

Subscriber Mailbag, Plus Market Rundown

Free Articles Written By Mike:

Facebook Seen Rising 20% Defying Skeptics

Roku Shares Could Fall 50% Further

Why Micron’s Stock Bulls May Be Wrong

Why Bank Stocks Are Ready for a Short-Term Pullback

3 Under The Radar Stocks That Could Soar 30%

Why Home Depot May Plunge 20% Off Its Highs

Why Biotech Stocks Face Steep Declines Ahead

Netflix Stock Is Poised For An 11% Plunge

Why Salesforce’s Record Stock Gains May Not Last

4 Red Flags For Technology Stocks

Biotech Stock Nektar May Be Ripe For A Sharp Pullback

Macy’s May Fall 18% as Option Traders Turn Bears

Micron May Rise 12% As Analysts Grow More Bullish

Why Amazon’s Stock May Continue To Outperform Alibaba’s

AMD May Fall 17% as Bearish Option Volume Soars

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This Commentary In Your E-Mail! Subscribe

-OR-

[vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”]

Photo credit via Flickr

Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own shares of GOOGL NFLX

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #incyte #nektar #bitoech #technology #stocks #alkermes #costco #instacart #anlylam #nektar #incyte #nvidia 

 

 

 

biotech technology stocks

Biotech and Technology Stocks To Watch Amid A Sector Breakout And More


Biotech and Technology Stocks To Watch Amid A Sector Breakout And More

The stock market has felt like it has gone nowhere, and seems to have lost its sense of direction. It feels as though a tweet can send the market reeling lower, or soaring higher. But with all the ups and down, the S&P 500 stands today at the same place it stood on February 16, around 2,735 give or take a few points on either side. It has certainly felt more exhausting.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This FREE Commentary In Your E-Mail! 

 

Mott Capital Management, Michael Kramer

Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets

An In-depth Global Macro Premium Stock Market Commentary

In Video Format- See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Premium Subscription Based Membership

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

Let Michael help you! Have questions? Let Michael help you find the answer. Sign-up and get two weeks free: Watch the latest video: Roku Borrow Rate Surge, Biotech Fakeout?

Biotech Stocks

The biotech’s today performed better than I had anticipated, with the NASDAQ Biotech ETF ($IBB) closing at $112.62. The chart shows a hint of testing support at $111.50 on two occasions during the day, and it held. A positive for sure, and it makes today’s price action look more like a breakout now.

When looking at the breakdown of the ETF, the buying was well-distributed among the group. Nektar led the group higher; it figures Nektar would, I wrote an article the other day, saying it was due for a pullback.

biotech


Nektar

Nektar has all the signs of a stock looking like it was set to pullback, an RSI trending lower, while the stock is reaching new highs and waning volume. But to this point, the market has decided to prove me wrong.

nektar


Alnylam

Alnylam, despite rising today, still looks weak on the charts. The stock is trending lower, along with the RSI trending lower.

anlyam

Advertisements

Incyte

Incyte looks like one that is on the verge of breaking out and should it rise above $93; it would signal a breakout, giving the stock the potential to increase to $102.

incyte


Alkermes

I have owned Alkermes for years, and suddenly the stock is starting to show signs of life, with a bit more volatility. I’m not sure how much of Alkermes’ rise has to do with the connection the market has given it to Nektar, because of their immuno-oncology drug candidates,  or if it has to do with the government focus on the opioid crisis. Alkermes makes Vivitrol, an injectable 30-day drug for opiate addiction. Vivitrol has a tiny market share that has been steadily growing. But Alkermes also has a lot on its plate in 2018 from its pipeline, with its depression candidate ‘5461 and a pending FDA approval. Head to head trial result on what was ALKS ‘8700 vs. Tecfidera in MS. ALKS ‘8700 was recently renamed after Alkermes signed a licensing deal with Biogen. Plus data on ALKS ‘3831 a drug for schizophrenia. With all these catalysts its is hard to decide what is driving price now, but my gut says the connection is with Nektar still.

alkmeres

Advertisements

Technology

The Technology ETF ($XLK) closed at $69.25, and it is nearing a breakout as well, which would be nice, even though I recently wrote a piece warning of a potential double top formation. It is nice being wrong twice for sure, but hey I’m not perfect either.

technology

Activision

Activision continues to climb, and there has been very little that has seemed to slow the stock down since the start of the new year. In this case, it looks as though the trend is your friend.

activision


Nvidia

A name we haven’t mentioned in a while Nvidia has stalled since its quarterly results, which is surprising. But the chart has this negative look to it with that downtrend that has formed in recent weeks. It may be worth watching Nvidia, and seeing how it continues to trend before making a call on it.

nvidia

Advertisements

Costco

Did you notice Costco’s results? The part I’m most interested in is the e-commerce growth. I have personally never liked shopping in Costco, especially where I live in Long Island, it is crazy in the store, and the parking lots is a disaster, with people fighting over spots. But I have started using their e-commerce product a bit. Now with Costco groceries through Instacart, I have become a big fan of Costco, because I can all the good deals without having to step foot in the store.

In the quarter Costco reported e-commerce sales of about $1.5 billion, which isn’t much, I know, but it was still 4.8 percent of total revenue, which came to $32.998 billion. The Instacart part of the business is new, so I would love to see what the growth is next quarter in this part of the company.

By the way, this was the Costco where I live at checkout on a Sunday morning at 11 am, back in December.

costco

Instacart

By the way, Instacart isn’t a public company, but if you go to the website Instacart.com, you can see what stores are associated with Instacart in your neighborhood, I like the service a lot. A personal shopper goes to the store to pick up your items that your order online, and through the app, you can chat with them, and they will send you pictures of the items, or let you know if the store is out of an item, and the replacement options. Very cool.

Ok, that is all, until tomorrow.

Advertisements


Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets – An In-depth Global Macro Stock Market Commentary – In Video Format – See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

Recent Videos:

Roku Borrow Rate Surge, Biotech Fakeout?

Tech And Biotech Look Weak, Plus Subscriber Mailbag

What The Heck Happened

Breaking Down Acadia’s Results, Exploring Trends In Chips Stocks

Stocks In Rally Mode, More To Come

Crazy Market Reaction Following Fed Minutes, Plus Subscriber Mail Bag

Subscriber Mailbag, Plus Market Rundown

Free Articles Written By Mike:

Why Bank Stocks Are Ready for a Short-Term Pullback

3 Under The Radar Stocks That Could Soar 30%

Why Home Depot May Plunge 20% Off Its Highs

Why Biotech Stocks Face Steep Declines Ahead

Netflix Stock Is Poised For An 11% Plunge

Why Salesforce’s Record Stock Gains May Not Last

4 Red Flags For Technology Stocks

Biotech Stock Nektar May Be Ripe For A Sharp Pullback

Macy’s May Fall 18% as Option Traders Turn Bears

Micron May Rise 12% As Analysts Grow More Bullish

Why Amazon’s Stock May Continue To Outperform Alibaba’s

AMD May Fall 17% as Bearish Option Volume Soars

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This Commentary In Your E-Mail! Subscribe

-OR-

[vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”]

Photo credit via Flickr

Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own shares of ALKS

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #incyte #nektar #bitoech #technology #stocks #alkermes #costco #instacart #anlylam #nektar #incyte #nvidia 

stock market S&P 500

Biotech and Technology Stocks Rally, Is It A Breakout or Fakeout?


Biotech and Technology Stocks Rally, Is It A Breakout or Fakeout?


Biotech and Technology stocks both showed a little bit more life today, then they have in past days. Should this trend continue tomorrow, it would be a good sign for the stock market as a whole.

Mott Capital Management, Michael Kramer

Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets

An In-depth Global Macro Premium Stock Market Commentary

In Video Format- See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Premium Subscription Based Membership

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

S&P 500

The stock market continues to be extremely volatile, with another day of wild price action. I think I wrote this last week, but it makes trading this market nearly impossible. I’m glad I do not trade the market, and only use a buy and hold strategy, easier to manage, and less stressful. The S&P 500 lows reached 2,700 today, by the end of the day we made a round trip and finished lower by only 1 point, go figure.  The volatility remains too dangerous to try to time anything these days. The sad part, I think it is here to stay for some time, and we should get used to it.

stock market S&P 500

Advertisements

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This FREE Commentary In Your E-Mail! 

 

Biotech Stocks

The NASDAQ Biotech ETF (IBB) closed today just a hair above $111.50, at $111.80. For me, that is not enough to say it broke out. You need to watch tomorrow for a follow through. The group needs to continue higher and manage to rise significantly above $112. Also, I want to see this group meaningfully outperform the major averages. If we get those two pieces tomorrow, I become much more constructive on the group. But to this point, I’m not convinced.

biotech

The iShares Biotech ETF (XBI) had a much sharper rise, but again,  I want to see a meaningful follow through tomorrow.

biotech


Technology Stocks

The technology ETF (XLK) is making a move towards resistance again, and all I can say is that this time it better rise above $69.25. We do not want this group failing three times at resistance.

technology

If these two sectors can start working, then I think I would become more constructive on the stock market. For now, I think these moves need to continue to be considered suspect. The way the stock market whips around these days, it makes it impossible to sit back and just ride a trend, because that trend can change direction very quickly.

That’s gonna be it for today. Let’s see what tomorrow brings.

Advertisements


Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets – An In-depth Global Macro Stock Market Commentary – In Video Format – See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

Recent Videos:

Tech And Biotech Look Weak, Plus Subscriber Mailbag

What The Heck Happened

Breaking Down Acadia’s Results, Exploring Trends In Chips Stocks

Stocks In Rally Mode, More To Come

Crazy Market Reaction Following Fed Minutes, Plus Subscriber Mail Bag

Subscriber Mailbag, Plus Market Rundown

Free Articles Written By Mike:

Why Biotech Stocks Face Steep Declines Ahead

Netflix Stock Is Poised For An 11% Plunge

Why Salesforce’s Record Stock Gains May Not Last

4 Red Flags For Technology Stocks

Biotech Stock Nektar May Be Ripe For A Sharp Pullback

Macy’s May Fall 18% as Option Traders Turn Bears

Micron May Rise 12% As Analysts Grow More Bullish

Why Amazon’s Stock May Continue To Outperform Alibaba’s

AMD May Fall 17% as Bearish Option Volume Soars

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This Commentary In Your E-Mail! Subscribe

-OR-

[vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”]

Photo credit via Flickr

 

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #biotech #technology #stocks #sp500

 

 

netflix

Netflix Subscriber Growth, GE’s Valuation, Incyte Rising, And Much More


Netflix Subscriber Growth, GE’s Valuation, Incyte Rising, And Much More

Stocks were mixed today for the most part, and the market was not nearly as confident today as it had been yesterday. Is this going just be a repeat of last week? With a one or two day rally, followed by a week of retracements? The charts would seem to suggest that we have a bit further to rise, perhaps to around 2,750. That would be the next test, the big question do we breakout and continue to rise, or do we fail and fall.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This FREE Commentary In Your E-Mail! 

 

S&P 500

Mott Capital Management, Michael Kramer

Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets

An In-depth Global Macro Premium Stock Market Commentary

In Video Format- See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Premium Subscription Based Membership

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

Get the first two-weeks of RTM for free and watch the latest video: Tech And Biotech Look Weak, Plus Subscriber Mailbag

Gary Cohn Resigns

Then, of course, the other question, will the market react negatively to the news of Gary Cohn’s resignation?  Not sure. Right now the futures are pointing to lower open, with the Dow futures down about 400, and the S&P 500 futures down about 39 points. The chart below of the S&P 500 futures shows that gap lower.

SP futures

The dollar weakened initially on the news but is bouncing back some.

dollar

I think the Cohn resignation is likely a sign to the market the tariffs are likely to happen, and the market is fearful of the fallout. Perhaps Cohn was looking to get out, and he merely used this tariff fiasco as a way to make that happen.

Regarding the economic agenda, it will continue to be the Republican agenda, not the Gary Cohn agenda. So at the end of the day, his resignation is likely not a big deal over the longer-term.


Biotech Stocks

Biotechs stocks continue to struggle and have yet to rise above $111.50 on the NASDAQ Biotech ETF (IBB). We need this group to rally, and soon. The risk-on part of the market is desperately missing.

biotech

It isn’t just in the big biotech’s either; the more evenly weighted iShares Biotech XBI is also exhibiting the same pattern as we noted yesterday.

bch

Advertisements

Incyte

Incyte has had terrible run since March of 2017, but the tide appears to be turning. The stock managed to finally find a bounce, but the big test comes around $93. Should it fail at $93, a move back towards the low $80 is likely. A rise above $93, likely sends the stock over $100.

incyte

Advertisements

Consumer Stocks

Consumer Discretionary stocks are also nearing a make or break level, like the biotech stocks. You would never know how weak the set up is in the group based on Amazon and Netflix. In fact, except for Amazon and Netflix, the rest of the group is pretty terrible, and the discretionary XLY ETF would likely be down even more.

https://www.tradingview.com/i/WzshyRES/

Just look at the top 25 holdings within the XLY ETF. 

 

(Data from ycharts)

Netflix


Speaking of Netflix, the stock got yet another upgrade today, this time from Pivotal. The price target was increased to $400 from $300. This is the part they I can never get, they are expecting international subscribers to hit 250 million by the year 2024! How do they come up with these things? That is six years from now.  I don’t even know what Netflix will report next quarter, let alone 24 quarters from now.

You know it is kind of funny though because my model shows me the same thing! It shows Netflix hitting 250 million international subscribers in June of 2024! Wow. You think that is a coincidence? I don’t know, but if I told you I ran my model in excel with the basic trend line function on the graph, would that give you more or less confidence in the projection? Well, that is exactly how I did it.

The function actually works quiet well, when trying to predict shorter-term outlooks, but anything beyond that to me seems pretty suspect. I own Netflix, and I am more than happy to see it continue to rise, but I think looking out that far seems like a bit much.

GE

Another interesting call this week was that GE was going to rise 50 percent back to a range of  $20 to $22. That would mean GE would trade at a higher valuation than Honeywell, and I can’t comprehend that. GE is expected to earn $1.05 in 2019, while Honeywell is expected to earn $8.66. At $22 GE would trade at 21 times one year forward earnings, while Honeywell now trades at 17. Hmm..

GE PE Ratio (Forward 1y) Chart

GE PE Ratio (Forward 1y) data by YCharts

Maybe I’m missing something here, but it feels like every time you think all the bad news is out of GE’s stock more bad news follows. Should GE trade at a higher multiple than United Technologies too?

I can’t seem to wrap my head around this one.

Well that is going to be it.

 

Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets – An In-depth Global Macro Stock Market Commentary – In Video Format – See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

Recent Videos:

Tech And Biotech Look Weak, Plus Subscriber Mailbag

What The Heck Happened

Breaking Down Acadia’s Results, Exploring Trends In Chips Stocks

Stocks In Rally Mode, More To Come

Crazy Market Reaction Following Fed Minutes, Plus Subscriber Mail Bag

Subscriber Mailbag, Plus Market Rundown

Free Articles Written By Mike:

4 Red Flags For Technology Stocks

Biotech Stock Nektar May Be Ripe For A Sharp Pullback

Macy’s May Fall 18% as Option Traders Turn Bears

Micron May Rise 12% As Analysts Grow More Bullish

Why Amazon’s Stock May Continue To Outperform Alibaba’s

AMD May Fall 17% as Bearish Option Volume Soars

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This Commentary In Your E-Mail! Subscribe

-OR-

[vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”]

Photo credit via Flickr

Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital owns shares of NFLX

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #cohn #netflix #ge #incyte #biotech #consumer #stocks

Acadia, Biogen, Celgene, Regeneron In Focus – A Look At The Week Ahead


Acadia, Biogen, Celgene, Regeneron In Focus – A Look At The Week Ahead

The stock market will look to build on last weeks gains, and it will be a week filled with economic data and Fed talk.

The one segment of the market rally that has been missing has been the biotech sector, and it is no wonder when stocks like Celgene, Biogen, and Regeneron have been in the gutter. Acadia gets a shot at breaking the negative news cycle this week and perhaps giving the group a boost.

Mott Capital Management, Michael Kramer

Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets

An In-depth Global Macro Premium Stock Market Commentary

In Video Format- See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Premium Subscription Based Membership

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

Economic Outlook

Fed Chair Powell will speak to the House on Tuesday starting at 10 am while talking to the Senate on Thursday at 10 am. Fourth quarter GDP will come on Wednesday, and the consensus is looking for a reading of 2.5 percent. But the significant reading will occur on Thursday when we get Personal Income and Outlays. Personal Income is expected to have a reading of 0.3%, while PCE is expected to show a y/y gain of 1.7 percent, while core y/y is supposed to rise by 1.5 percent.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This FREE Commentary In Your E-Mail! 

 

Biotech

Biotech has been a weak group, and the internals for the leadership is nothing to write home about. Shares of Celgene, Biogen, and Regeneron have fallen on hard times, with these three stocks accounting for nearly 25 percent of the Nasdaq Biotech ETF (IBB) it is hard to imagine the group can advance much without them.


Celgene

Celgene shares have seen a disastrous fall from grace, shares have fallen by an astounding 35 percent from a high near $147 to almost $95.50. The company has made a number of moves to help bolster the pipeline and calm nerves around the dependence on Revlimid, recently announcing it would buy Juno, but still, shares have suffered. Admittedly, this one has gone against me, and I’m not thrilled with the outcome.

The good news is that the stock has managed to hold support around $94. The bad news is that every time it has shown a sign of life over the past few months the stock just goes the other way.

Celg

Despite the recent acquisitions, analysts have yet to up their revenue targets, remaining reasonably flat, while trading at Gilead type of valuations of 9.3 times 2019 earnings estimate of $10.22.

CELG Revenue Estimates for Current Fiscal Year Chart

CELG Revenue Estimates for Current Fiscal Year data by YCharts

Advertisements

Biogen

Biogen shares are in the same camp, having fallen from nearly $370 to $283, a decline of 23 percent. On February 7, the company announced it would stop developing Tysabri to treat acute ischemic stroke patients. Then adding insult to injury, one week later the company announced it would be adding patients to its trial in Alzheimer’s disease drug for aducanumab, creating more fear.

biogen

The chart like Celgene shows the stock has gotten to critical support to $282. It had seemed for some time that Biogen was destined to reach $400, but the negative news flow has just changed that direction.


Regeneron

Regeneron shares have broken down, and what had been a failed breakout attempt, now puts shares in of danger of heading lower to $273.

 

regeneron

Advertisements

Acadia

Acadia will post fourth-quarter results on Tuesday. Analysts are looking for the company to report that revenue climbed by over 275 percent in the fourth quarter to $45.18 million, on a loss of $0.57. More important will be any commentary on 2018 guidance, where analysts are looking for revenue of $253 million.

When looking at the current run rate of quarterly revenue growth, we can see the growth has been relatively linear. Should revenue come in at analysts estimates or higher, it would continue to put the company on pace to have revenue of $300 million in 2018, about $50 million more than expectations, but we will surely find out more details

acadia

The stock has been a bust for years now, and it seems that every piece of positive news has been met with selling pressure.

acadia

Will something change soon? Hopefully, but at this point frustration with this stock runs deep. It feels as though every time I think the stock is about to breakout, it fails. My expectations for revenue growth are solid when it comes to the quarter and next year. But when it comes to how the stock will perform, I  at a loss, and tired of guessing, getting my hopes to only be met with disappointment.

If the fundamentals continue to improve, one has to believe one day it will be reflected in the stock price.

Good luck his week.

Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets – An In-depth Global Macro Stock Market Commentary – In Video Format – See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

Recent Videos:

Stock Market Still Not Out Of Danger Zone

Crazy Market Reaction Following Fed Minutes, Plus Subscriber Mail Bag

Subscriber Mailbag, Plus Market Rundown

Why Amazon Has Peaked And Tesla Could Be Cheap

Inflation Rising, Rates Rising, Stocks Do Not Care!

Stock Price Continue To Rebound, More To Come?

Stock Market Bouncing Back

Free Articles Written By Mike:

AMD Analysts See 20% Stock Gain Despite Red Flags

PayPal Seen Falling 15% on Loss of Biggest Customer

How Costco’s Stock Can Soar On E-Commerce

Roku’s Stock May Fall 35% Further As Sales Stall

3 Commodity Stocks That May Soar 20% on Inflation

Why Walmart Will Never Be Amazon

eBay’s Lagging Stock Set To Rise On Revenue Growth

Biotech Alkermes May Surge On Wave of New Drugs

Apple Options Traders Bet Big On 15% Share Gain

Why Chip Stocks Are Still Cheap

Disney’s Stock Looks Like a Bargain

Chipotle’s Stock Rebound May Fizzle

Why Facebook’s Rally Is Lagging the Techs

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This Commentary In Your E-Mail! Subscribe

-OR-

[vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”]

Photo Credit Via Flickr

Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capial own shares of CELG and ACAD

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #stocks #biotech #celgene #acadia #regeneron #biogen

micron analog devices applied materials walmart

Micron, Applied Materials, and Analog Lead Stocks Higher, Walmart Lags

Micron, Applied Materials, and Analog Lead Stocks Higher, Walmart Lags

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This FREE Commentary In Your E-Mail! 

 

The S&P 500 managed to eek out a slight gain for the week of about 60 bps. But it was the semiconductor sector ($SOXX) that stole the show, jumping by over 2.15 percent. The broader Technology sector ($XLK) finished in a distant second place up roughly 1.5 percent. Consumer staples where by far the worst performing group down by over 1.8 percent.

Mott Capital Management, Michael Kramer

Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets

An In-depth Global Macro Premium Stock Market Commentary

In Video Format- See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Premium Subscription Based Membership

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

Watch The Latest Reading The Markets and Get Two Weeks Free! Stock Market Still Not Out Of Danger Zone

 

technology secmiconductors

Semiconductor Stocks

When we look at the different stocks in the chip sector, we can see that Micron was the best performer up by nearly 7 percent, followed by Analog Devices, and Applied Materials.

semicondutor

Advertisements

Micron

Micron shares jumped by nearly 5 percent on Friday alone, and the options activity was also pretty substantial. Almost 12,000 of the March 16, $47 calls traded on Friday, along with another 9,000 calls at the $50 strike, while 17,000 of the April $50 calls traded as well. The notional value was nothing overwhelming, with the March $47 calls trading at roughly $1.50 per contract, giving the contracts that trade a dollar value of about $1.8 million. The April 50’s trade at roughly $1.90 giving the contracts traded a dollar value of about $3.2 million.

Micron

The stock cleared the multi-month downtrend, moving up to resistance at $46.80. If the price rises above $46.80 it has a clear shot to reach its old highs near $50.

Analog Devices

Analog Device got an upgrade from Bernstein boosting Analog’s price target to $105 from $90. Meanwhile, RBC noted that Analog could be among a list of companies that Broadcom may look at should the Qualcomm deal be killed.

The chart is nothing to get excited about, as the stock has been relatively choppy recently. Although there is a noticeable uptrend, there is nothing in the pattern to suggest that stock is going to rocket higher anytime soon, but seems worth watching at this point. analog devices

Applied Materials

Applied Materials is in a vital spot, fail at resistance,  $55.50,  or breakout and rise. Options active is pretty muted in the name.

applied material

But analysts are looking for significant growth this year, with revenue expected to climb by nearly 21 percent to $17.51 billion, while earnings are expected to soar by almost 36 percent to $4.43 per share. But earnings growth is seen coming to a halt in 2019, to only 5 percent, while revenue is expected to grow by 6.5 percent. The average price target on the stock is $68.91, according to Ycharts, giving the stock upside potential of about 21 percent.

AMAT Chart

AMAT data by YCharts

The stock is trading at only 12 times 2019 earnings, which seems cheap enough. But the 2019 earnings growth rate of 5 percent,  is concerning, especially given the 6 percent revenue growth. It could suggest that analyst are expecting costs to rise next year, and margin compression. When it comes to chip stocks, the market does not like margin compression. It is something you have to consider, and pay close attention too.

Until this one makes a clear technical breakout or fails on the charts, the stock is a toss-up.

Advertisements

Consumer Staples

CONSUMER STAPLES

Consumer Staples performed the worst of all sectors in the stock market this past week. It should come as no surprise with Walmart down by over 10 percent for the week, while General Mills fell by 7 percent, and Kraft Heinz falling by 5 percent.

Walmart

It seems that suddenly that e-commerce juggernaut, Walmart, is not what was first thought. First off, e-commerce growth fell during the fourth quarter to 23 percent, from 50 percent in the third. But it is also obvious now, that Walmart’s e-commerce ambitions are going to take a long time before they become meaningful. The company noted total sales over the past year were about $11.5 billion, out the roughly $500 billion in total revenue the company had. The e-commerce sales represented only 2.3 percent of total sales. Suddenly it makes what was previously perceived as significant growth in e-commerce for Walmart is suddenly not so impressive or important.

That’s It!

Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets – An In-depth Global Macro Stock Market Commentary – In Video Format – See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

Recent Videos:

Stock Market Still Not Out Of Danger Zone

Crazy Market Reaction Following Fed Minutes, Plus Subscriber Mail Bag

Subscriber Mailbag, Plus Market Rundown

Why Amazon Has Peaked And Tesla Could Be Cheap

Inflation Rising, Rates Rising, Stocks Do Not Care!

Stock Price Continue To Rebound, More To Come?

Stock Market Bouncing Back

Free Articles Written By Mike:

AMD Analysts See 20% Stock Gain Despite Red Flags

PayPal Seen Falling 15% on Loss of Biggest Customer

How Costco’s Stock Can Soar On E-Commerce

Roku’s Stock May Fall 35% Further As Sales Stall

3 Commodity Stocks That May Soar 20% on Inflation

Why Walmart Will Never Be Amazon

eBay’s Lagging Stock Set To Rise On Revenue Growth

Biotech Alkermes May Surge On Wave of New Drugs

Apple Options Traders Bet Big On 15% Share Gain

Why Chip Stocks Are Still Cheap

Disney’s Stock Looks Like a Bargain

Chipotle’s Stock Rebound May Fizzle

Why Facebook’s Rally Is Lagging the Techs

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This Commentary In Your E-Mail! Subscribe

-OR-

[vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”]

Photo Credit Via Flickr

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #stocks #chips #semiconductors #micron #analog #applied #materials #devices #walmart #consumer #technology

Tesla Model 3 Tesla's Stock Price

Stock Market Could Be Tested Tomorrow, Plus Why Tesla May Be Cheap At Current Levels

Stock Market Could Be Tested Tomorrow, Plus Why Tesla May Be Cheap At Current Levels

Mott Capital Management, Michael Kramer

Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets

An In-depth Global Macro Premium Stock Market Commentary

In Video Format- See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Premium Subscription Based Membership

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This FREE Commentary In Your E-Mail! 

 

The stock market just continues to bounce around, and the trend is now distinctly lower. The market has been unable to hold its gains late in the day, in what is becoming a trend. The S&P 500 had been as high as 2,730 intraday, to finish the day flat at 2,703.

The index is following the upper orange trend line lower, with a series of lower highs, and lower lows. Let’s not make mountains out of molehills here, because the S&P 500 peaked at 2,748 on February 16, and now only sits 1.6 percent lower presently. But the closer we get to 2,691 the more critical it becomes for that the 2,691 support level to hold because the next stop is 2,633.

S&P 500

Advertisements

Amazon

Amazon, as I have said has the markings of a tired stock. It again tried early in the day to break $1,500, and resistance again proved too strong, resulting in the stock retreating. The longer it takes for this stock to break out, the more likely it becomes the stock will be heading lower. I have said Amazon is likely to head lower, and once again the market came close to proving me wrong, but like yesterday, I live to fight another day.

amazon

Netflix

Netflix is in the same camp as Amazon, again failing to breakout. The bulls do not have the juice to get this stock higher presently.

netflix

Apple

Apple has hit a wall too, unable to climb like Netflix and Amazon.

apple

Advertisements

Tesla

Tesla must drive the short sellers nuts, and they must be pulling their hair out. They have to wonder what it will take for Tesla to go down? Tesla has had one bad piece of news after another since November, but the market just does not care.  Now Electrek is reporting that the Model 3 is starting to go out to reservation holders that previously didn’t own a Tesla. The website is also saying that Model S & X are now in backlog because of rising demand.

Now if you are short the stock and all the bad news and delays have been priced into the market, and the news flow turns positive, what do you think will happen? The stock will rise.

The chart actually suggest that Tesla will continue to rise as well. In fact, the next couple of days will be critical to the stock with resistance at $348 and then $358, if those two levels get taken out, it is up to $386.

tesla

Now I don’t want to jinx myself and the other longs, but after failing at $386 the two earlier times, what do you think might happen on the third? It could be on its way to $400.

tesla

I spoke about this last week in the subscriber area, but Tesla is cheap by historical standards. Yes, you read that right. Cheap. Then again, keep in mind, this is coming from the guy that said Tesla could double this year to $600. The last time shares were this cheap was in February of 2016, March of 2017, and well, now, with the stock trading at 1.9 times 2019 sales estimates of $26.51 billion.

TSLA Chart

TSLA data by YCharts

Also what seems unusual, Wall Street has hardly adjusted its expectations for revenue in 2018 or 2019, despite the bad news flow. The chart below shows it, remember in January the year rolls over, so the green line below, represents 2019 estimates before the new year began. In November estimates were for $28.6 billion, today they sit $26.5 billion, a decline of only 7 percent.

TSLA Chart

TSLA data by YCharts

So either all the delays are not seen as having a significant impact on the revenue outlook, or the street never modeled in the Model 3 hype.

 

Night!

Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets – An In-depth Global Macro Stock Market Commentary – In Video Format – See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

Recent Videos:

Crazy Market Reaction Following Fed Minutes, Plus Subscriber Mail Bag

Subscriber Mailbag, Plus Market Rundown

Why Amazon Has Peaked And Tesla Could Be Cheap

Inflation Rising, Rates Rising, Stocks Do Not Care!

Stock Price Continue To Rebound, More To Come?

Stock Market Bouncing Back

Free Articles Written By Mike:

How Costco’s Stock Can Soar On E-Commerce

Roku’s Stock May Fall 35% Further As Sales Stall

3 Commodity Stocks That May Soar 20% on Inflation

Why Walmart Will Never Be Amazon

eBay’s Lagging Stock Set To Rise On Revenue Growth

Biotech Alkermes May Surge On Wave of New Drugs

Apple Options Traders Bet Big On 15% Share Gain

Why Chip Stocks Are Still Cheap

Disney’s Stock Looks Like a Bargain

Chipotle’s Stock Rebound May Fizzle

Why Facebook’s Rally Is Lagging the Techs

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This Commentary In Your E-Mail! Subscribe

-OR-

[vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”]

 

Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own shares of TSLA and NFLX

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #stocks #amazon #netflix #apple #tesla