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Where Did All The Bears Go? NASDAQ Hit All-Time High

Where Did All The Bears Go? NASDAQ Hits All-Time High



MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN SHARES OF GOOGL

Where Did All The Bears Go? NASDAQ Hits All-Time High

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We do not follow the NASDAQ much here, but today the NASDAQ closed at an all-time high. Where are all the bears now? Where are all the people calling for the end of the bull market, and the days of doom and gloom?  Or the Investors that thought earnings would not matter?  Nobody knows the future, but we can surely use the information at hand to gauge the likely direction for the markets.  So yeah, tracking trends, earnings, and macro forces really do matter. Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.

^IXIC Chart NASDAQ ALl-time high

^IXIC data by YCharts


Rotation Continues

Stocks continue higher today after the S&P 500 broke above resistance at 2,741, I think this now gives the index a clear path to go on towards 2,800 over the next couple of weeks. It has become clear, in case I haven’t made it obvious, risk-on is back in the equity market, and Technology continues to be the leader.

sp500

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Technology

Technology stocks continue to rocket higher, and with the ETF now trading at all-time highs there are no immediate resistance levels in place. Nvidia is the latest technology stock to breakout, with shares rising above resistance, at $260.50. Alphabet also broke out rising above a multi-month downtrend, rising above $1,140.

google


Biotech

Biotech has also been among the best sectors, but today it was down 22 bps. It isn’t bad considering one of the leaders in the group Nektar got decimated falling by an astounding 42 percent, yeah, that was just today. The data that the company presented at ASCO, a cancer conference, was less than inspiring and created more questions than answers.  In this case, the chart doesn’t help and doesn’t even pay to look at. I suspect it isn’t done falling, either. That is my guess.

Gilead

Gilead had a good day, as we noted in the Sunday write-up, the case for $72 is in the works.

gilead

Biogen

Biogen continues to struggle at $300.

biib


Oil

Oil prices fell again today, below $65, and I now think there is a good shot for Oil to head lower towards $61.

oil

Thanks to all the loyal readers, and I hope if anything I have helped you through the recent market volatility. I know in the stock market one can never declare victory, but occasionally, it is nice to acknowledge when you have had a good run.  I think we have put together a solid run of late.

If you enjoy these write-ups, please feel to share with friends or peers via social media.

Thank you!

-Mike

 

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Why Broadcom’s Stock Is Poised For Bigger Gains

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-Mike

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future. 

Tags: #alpahbet #nvidia #technology #nasdaq #biotech #technology #oil

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Sector Rotation Is Churning Beneath The Stock Market's Surface

Sector Rotation Is Churning Beneath The Stock Market’s Surface



Sector Rotation Is Churning Beneath The Stock Market’s Surface

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Michael kramer and the clients of mott capital own nflx

First, thank you to Market Watch for picking my Italeave commentary for their call of the day! Thank you!

It was as if Italy never happened for the stock market! Today was another perfect example of nothing materially changing in the marketplace, but equities rallied like wild, with the S&P 500 jumping by 1.27 percent, back to 2,724. But there are warning signs out there for different parts of the equity market, and the charts tell a clear story of that.

The rebound in the S&P 500 was inspiring, but the hurdle still sits at 2,742, so we shall wait, to see if get there tomorrow.

spx

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Banks

The good news is that financials did bounce today, the bad news is that they did not recover their losses. The charts still look damaged. The XLF, for example, rose today only to its opening price from yesterday morning and then faded.

banks

JP Morgan didn’t even get back to its opening price from yesterday.

Jp morgan

Nor did Citigroup or Bank of America. I’m not going to show you every chart. But it surely must mean something right? In fact, today’s volume in Citigroup was about half of what it was yesterday, with 18 million shares trading today to yesterday 37.6 million yesterday. Bank of America was the same, with roughly 79 million shares trading to yesterday’s 135 million, so was today’s price action because of an absence of sellers in bank stocks? Potentially.


Technology

Now we can look at the XLK ETF and notice the difference with the group recovering all its losses from yesterday.

technology

Nvidia jumped to a higher price, and on better volume.

nvidia

Consumer discretionary stocks also recovered all their losses, with Netflix and Amazon being two such examples.

netflix


Materials

The materials XLB look similar to the XLF.

materials

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Staples

Meanwhile, those staples, look at them moving higher!

staples

Both the XBI and the IBB surged today, and much higher than yesterday’s highs. I’m not going even to show the charts.

Go back to the basics, which sectors that are likely to do well in a falling interest rate, rising dollar environment? Well, staples, tech, and biotech for example. Which areas are bound to do poorly financials and materials, yes. Multinationals? Think McDonald’s.

It would seem to me there is a big rotation going on in the marketplace right now. Well, see where it tomorrow goes.


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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

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Tags: #sp500 #banks #materials #tech #staples #discretionary #netflix #nvidia #jpmorgnan #bofa #citigroup

 

Stocks and Sectors Breaking Out For The Week of May 14

Stocks and Sectors Breaking Out For The Week of May 14



Stocks and Sectors Breaking Out For The Week of May 14

Michael kramer and the clients of mott capital own shares of acad, dis, and googl
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The week of May 14 will try to continue to build on last week’s strong performance. With earnings pretty much behind us now, investors can continue to digest the strong earnings seasons. Meanwhile, the latest inflation and wage data should also calm nerves over runaway inflation or a Fed that will need to be over aggressively, and allow for stocks to continue to rally this week.

sp500

The S&P 500 broke out last week, and the relative strength index also broke out, and I think we should continue to see the broader market continue to trend higher this week. I’m still looking for a rise to about 2,800 on the S&P 500 over the next couple of weeks.

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Consumer Stocks

We have seen Technology names breakout over the past week, and I think we see the consumer stocks finally breakout this week.

The XLY ETF is very close to breaking out, and the RSI also appears set to breakout, I think that happens this week.

consumers


Amazon

As I have written previously, Amazon is close to breaking out, and I think that breakout can happen this week, as it sits right below resistance.

amazon


Home Depot

Home Depot is another one that already has broken out, and is reporting results on May 15. Analysts are looking for earnings for $2.05, on revenue of $25.2 billion.  A return to $210 may be reach for later this week.

home depot


Disney

Disney is also likely heading higher, potentially back to $111.

disney

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Nvidia

Technology stocks have already broken out, and we are going to want to see a strong continuation this week. Nvidia is going to be the one to watch here. It has broken out, and the earnings results served as a retest of the breakout, and it held. Now we to see a follow-through higher.

nvidia


Micron

Micron also broke out, and I think a rise to about $54 is in the works.

micron


Alphabet

Alphabet is has been on a tear, I think that one continues, on towards $1150.

alphabet


AMD

AMD has also broken out and a rise to $13.70 could be coming shortly.  amd

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Biotech

Another group I will be watching are the biotechs, to see if they can build on Friday’s strength.  The XBI appears to have broken out, and the RSI did as well.  We could see a rise back to the highs around $96.

biotech


Nektar

Nektar shares bounced right off support around $70, the key this week is if the stock can get back over $83.

nktr


Acadia

Acadia may also be close to breaking out and a push back to $27 would sure be nice.

acadia stock

 

Mike

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Tags: #amazon #consumer #technology #biotech #homedepot #acadia #nektar #disney #nvidia #amd #micron

Nvidia Crushes It, Amazon Nears Breakout, As Roku Fades

Nvidia Crushes It, Amazon Nears Breakout, As Roku Fades

Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital Own AAPL, NFLX, and GOOGL

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We got the follow through I was speaking of last night, with another strong day in the broader S&P 500 which managed to finish higher by about 1 percent. The key thing, we closed at 2723, and that took us above the highs from mid-April of 2715. Not to get too granular, but the next region of resistance is around 2750, then 2800.  I still think we are well on our way to 2,800.

spx

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The Setup In Stocks Continues To Improve

Technology

Once again, we got another strong day out of the Technology ETF with the XLK rising to just about $70. I’m wondering now if we aren’t on a path to around $75 on the XLK. Some of the larger technology stocks in the ETF are cheap enough to push the price up to those levels.  Apple, Facebook, and Alphabet, to name three off the top of my head.

technology


Microsoft

It looks like Microsoft did breakout today.  It probably has room to rise to around $101.

microsoft


Amazon

The one stock that hasn’t participated much in the recent rally has been Amazon; it has been stuck at resistance now for a few days. I have a feeling that is about to change in the coming days, maybe even tomorrow.

amazon


Discretionaries

The reason I say that? Just look at the consumer ETF XLY, if that chart doesn’t scream of a potential breakout, then I don’t know what does. The ETF is going nowhere without Amazon, with its massive 22 percent weighting.

consumers

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Energy

This chart in the energy XLE ETF is the strangest thing I have ever seen, and I can’t make heads or tails of what it means. The problem with the XLE ETF is that Exxon has a 22 percent weight, and Chevron is at 17.25 percent. There are probably better ways to play the energy sector.

energy


Financials

Financials are also finding a nice bounce here.

fianncials

Roku

The excitement in Roku quickly faded by mid-day, and you can see the stock got to resistance and caved in. Look, I told you what I thought of Roku’s numbers last night. I don’t think they were as strong as everyone first thought. I’m sorry, show me that ARPU in 6 months, when it is coming off that tiny base of active accounts.

roku

Nvidia

Nvidia posted some fantastic results. I really would like to know how they do it! Revenue growth of 66 percent since last year. Data center growth up 70 percent to $701 million! These were huge numbers.  Guidance was better than expected, margin improvement. I didn’t hear the call but read the notes, and I can’t find anything wrong at this point. I’d be shocked if the stock is down tomorrow.

That’s It!

-Mike

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

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Tags: #micorsoft #technology #nvidia #amazon #roku

 

Stocks Really Breakout, A Look At Roku, Where Does Oil Go

Stocks Really Breakout, A Look At Roku, Where Does Oil Go

Stocks Really Breakout, A Look At Roku, Where Does Oil Go

Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own shares of TSLA, GOOGL, NFLX

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The S&P 500 was in rally mode, and it was a strong day across the board. Biotech, Tech, Financials, along with Energy.  The setup in the S&P 500 continues to remain very strong, and I think we may have just broken out.

sp500

In fact, the relative strength index is also showing signs of breaking out, and it would take a rise to about 60 on the RSI to confirm the bullish move.I’d like to see another strong trading day tomorrow, to prove today’s rise was real and give the index some breathing room. But the underlying sector charts are looking reasonably healthy as well.


Technology

We can see the same setup in the chart of the technology ETF (XLK), along with a strong setup in the RSI.

xlk

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Google

Alphabet shares appear to be breaking out, and I noted in an article earlier today on Investopedia, I think it might rise to around $1150.

alphabet


Netflix

Netflix appears to be on its way towards $340.

netflix

Microsoft too.

microsoft


Micron

It isn’t much different in some of the semis either. It was Monday I wrote that Micron was in the final phases of a descending wedge, and sure enough it broke out today, $54 appears to be next.

micron

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Tesla

Tesla is on the doorsteps of a significant breakout as well, currently trading around $310, which could send shares higher on towards $330.  In case you missed it, California voted to have all new houses equipped with rooftop solar panels.


Biotech

Biotechs are also looking relatively strong as well, and I still think that the group can continue to work higher. I know there is nervousness about this drug pricing speech that is now coming on Friday. But I have been saying since 2016, that I think any policy on drug pricing comes in the form of a quicker approval process, to increase competition.  I don’t see it happening through price controls.

biotech


Oil

Well, Oil is within 4 points of my $75 target, which by the way I called late last year. I have been thinking about where it goes from here.  I do not see it going much higher in the short-term. In fact, if I were a betting man, I’d say we see $60 before we see $80.

oil

I hope everyone realizes once Oil stops rising the whole inflation narrative will disappear too? Right? I’m talking to myself; Of course, they don’t.


Roku

So, I have to say that the Roku’s numbers look solid on the surface, two things stand out as concerns to me. Player revenue fell 3 percent from last year, and I guess that revenue will continue to decline. Which means the revenue numbers you are left to truly rely on to drive that future growth is just the platform.

Also, I’m curious as to why platform revenue fell sequentially, to $75 million from $85 million? Interesting. Platform gross profit margins also fell both from last year and sequentially, to 71.1 percent from 77.1 and 74.6 percent, respectively.
Additionally, the rate of net additions fell in the quarter.

The ARPU numbers are reported in a weird way, I’m not all that familiar with the style. The company takes the average number of users in the 1Q’18 and 1Q’17 and then sums up total revenue for Q2, Q3, Q4, and Q1’18. They then divide that revenue total, by the average number of subscribers to get ARPU. By the way, I had to look in the IPO prospectus to figure that out! But the number of subscribers in the 1Q’17 was only 14.2 million, so it makes the average way too low. It gives an average of 17.5 million accounts, on total platform revenue of $264 million, giving you an ARPU of $15.09, some rounding in there.

But do just a straight ARPU calculation of (Revenue/Users)/3 months, and you get $1.20 in the quarter, down from $1.47 the previous quarter. I dunno. You be the judge.

Anyway, the stock is trading pretty much where I predicted it would at $37. So where it goes from here is anyone’s guess.

roku

That is enough.

-Night

-Mike

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #micorsoft #technology #semis #tesla #roku #nvidia #micron 

 

Technology and Semis Are Leading The Stock Market Higher

Technology and Semis Are Leading The Stock Market Higher

Technology and Semis Are Leading The Stock Market Higher

Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own shares of TSLA

The S&P 500 had a solid day, rising by 35 bps, closing at 2,672. We gave back some of the gains late in the day around the time of the Iran headlines, but it may have been more of a gap fill. The chart shows that the S&P 500 is very close to the upper bound of the trading range so that the next few days will be telling as for whether we breakout and continue our rise, or we retrace back to the 2615 region.

spx

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Technology

Technology shares continued their advance, and the setup in the group continues to look positive. We’ll need to monitor and see if the XLK ETF continues to stay within the channel. The most important thing we are watching is that we continue a pattern of higher lows.

technology


Semis

It looks like the iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) may have also broken out, another positive. I’d like to see a strong follow-through tomorrow to confirm. I bought some calls for the SMH ETF on Friday anticipating a breakout in my trading account. Not something I often do, but sometimes old habits die hard. Hopefully, I will prove right on this one.


Microsoft

Microsoft has this sizeable ascending triangle forming, and that may mean shares set for a big breakout.

msft

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Amazon

Amazon shares continue to hover just below resistance around $1,620. The next day or so will likely be telling for that stocks future direction.

amazon


Nvidia

I wrote the other day, I saw Nvidia getting back to $250 after results, well it almost got there today! Does that mean we are going even higher? I’m not ready to change the call yet.

nvidia

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Roku

Roku had a solid rise of 5 percent today, with the stock hitting some resistance around $34. Implied vol is at almost 119% for the options set to expire in 11 days, according to Trade Alert. That is crazy.

roku


Tesla

Tesla shares got a boost after reports Elon Musk bought 33,000 shares of stock. The stock has now recovered all of its losses following the quarterly results.

Tesla registered another 5,009 VINS for the Model 3 today with the NHTSA. From April 23 through May 6, Tesla registered about 6,000 VINS. That would indicate they may be producing about 3,000 cars per week. We’ll see when the next batch of VINS are recorded, and the spacing between dates.

I have now seen three Model 3’s where I live on Long Island over the past week, so they are around, and I will continue to keep track.


Micron

The last time I wrote on Micron, I noted it looks like shares broke out. Well, I was embarrassed because the stock went down. I haven’t been wrong on Micron much in the past, and this time I was. But now the setup in the chart is becoming more evident, and a breakout appears to be coming. Look at that falling wedge in the chart, along with a solid uptrend. It means a reversal is bound to happen, and that means shares are getting ready to.

micron

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A Rise Back To 2,800 On The S&P Is In The Works

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Amazon Traders Bet Stock Will Rise 12% Further

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Chipmakers May Soon Rebound to New Highs

Biotech Stocks Set to Breakout

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #micorsoft #technology #semis #tesla #roku #nvidia #micron 

Nvidia, Disney, Roku Earnings Preview For the Week of May 7

Nvidia, Disney, Roku Earnings Preview For the Week of May 7

Nvidia, Disney, Roku Earnings Preview For the Week of May 7

Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own shares of DIS, GOOGL, AAPL, MA, and TSLA

Earnings Scorecard for this blog :

Week of April 23: 1 Right (MSFT), 4 Wrong (GOOGL, FB, AMD, AMZN)

Week of April 30: 1 Right (MA), 3 Wrong (AAPL, SQ, TSLA)


The scores above are for the blog only, because for some reason my calls on Investopedia have been much better. I couldn’t tell you why, but that is just the way it goes. So I’m sure there are plenty of people that will make comments, and laugh at my miserable results. But that is ok, I’m a big boy, and I have been doing this long enough to know even the best have a slump.

Batter Up!

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Earnings this

Earnings continue this week with Nvidia, Disney, and Roku slated to report results. Disney reporting Tuesday, followed by Roku on Wednesday, and Nvidia on Thursday.  This will be the final week of earnings predictions.


Nvidia

Nvidia has put together another solid year rather quietly, perhaps because most of the significant gains occurred through the middle of March. But the stock is higher by over 23 percent on the year, much better than the broader S&P 500’s flat returns.

NVDA Chart

NVDA data by YCharts

Analyst Estimates

Analysts are looking for revenue to have grown by 48.63 percent during the fiscal first-quart of 2019 to $2.88 billion. Meanwhile, earnings are expected to have risen by 94 percent to $1.65 per share, monster growth numbers for a company that’s growth rate never seem to slow.  But more importantly will be how the company guides the coming quarter because analysts are looking for total revenue of $2.946 billion, a rise of 50 percent, while earnings are seen climbing by nearly 63 percent to 1.64 per share. Massive growth rates, for this company especially given the monster growth rates of the past. Pay close attention to data center growth that may be key.

Earnings History

The company has not missed on the top or bottom line since April of 2016 and has beaten analysts earnings estimates by an average of 20 percent, with a standard deviation of 10 percent. Meanwhile, revenue has beaten estimates by an average of 8 percent with a standard deviation of 6 percent. Pretty good odds that Nvidia once again crushes those estimates.

NVDA Quarterly Actual EPS Chart

NVDA Quarterly Actual EPS data by YCharts

Being A Bear Doesn’t Pay

Over the past year and a half, I have been relatively bearish on Nvidia, and wrong. Although I have from a trading standpoint, I have gone back and forth. But overall, I have been very impressed by the companies ability to grow into its valuation.  The market usually over-optimistic and tends to overvalue story such as Nvidia, but in this case, Nvidia has been able to deliver.

Technicals

The stock tricked me about a week ago, when it fell below support at $217, but bounced back quickly. It has now convincingly broken out, rising above its downtrend on the stock price, and the relative strength index. Climbing back to the highs around $253 seems possible after results.

nvidia

Options

The options market has an implied volatility of 65 percent for the options set to expire in 7 days, and that equates to a range of 9 percent up or down, a big move.

nvidia

Surprisingly or not the options set to expire May 18 have the most significant open interest at the $235 strike price, with 34,000 open calls to 33,000 open puts. That means it is anyone’s guess which way Nvidia goes after results.

Overall, it seems like a rise back to around $250 following what should be strong results, would not be surprising.

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Disney

Disney is expected to report that fiscal second-quarter earnings climbed by 13.25 percent to $1.70, while revenue is seen rising by 5.8 percent to $14.11 billion. Disney’s history on reporting results, is not nearly as consistent as Nvidia, with Disney beating earnings by an average of only 2 percent, with a standard deviation of 7 percent, while revenue misses estimates on average by 2 percent with a standard deviation of 1 percent, Yikes! That does not bode well for the upcoming results this week

DIS Quarterly Revenue Estimates Chart

DIS Quarterly Revenue Estimates data by YCharts

Options

The options set for expiration in a week have an implied volatility of about 35 percent, and that suggests a rise or fall of about 4.85 percent, following results.

The options with the most significant open interest are the May $100 strike price, with roughly 31,000 open puts to 26,000 open calls, suggesting a slightly bearish bias after results.

Technicals

Disney’s has gone nowhere since the August of 2015, but the setup in the chart is one of the most bullish long-term structures around, and when Disney does breakout finally it will be a massive ride higher in the stock, likely easily surpassing the $120 level. I think for the stock it might simply be a matter of when.

In the interim, I think Disney could revert to the upper end of the range after results to about $110.

dis


Roku

Finally, we will finish with Roku. The company is newly listed so there isn’t a whole lot of data to go off on this one. Analysts are looking for the company to report a loss of $0.15 per share, while revenue is seen at $127.55 million.

Options

Implied volatility is through the roof at 144 percent, meaning over the next seven days the stock could rise or fall by 20 percent! Huge!

The most significant levels of open are for expiration on June 15, and they are the $34 and $35 strike prices, with nearly 5,300 open calls at $34, and almost 3,000 open calls at $35. The $35 puts have about 2,900 open contracts. This one appears to be way more bullish than bearish and would suggest a rise above  $37 following results.

Technicals

The chart is relatively bullish too, with a firm bottom in place around $30, and rising RSI. The next significant level of resistance comes around $37.75 on the chart.

roku

The options and the chart suggest shares rise following results, but there isn’t enough to go on regarding earnings. So for this one, I think we do see a rise post results back to around $37.

 

That is all

Mike

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

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banks bets blame netflix tesla amazon

Banks, Bets, Breakouts, and Blame – Freaky Friday


Banks, Bets, Breakouts, and Blame – Freaky Friday

It was another exciting day in the stock market. Nah not really,  it was mostly uneventful. Technicals continue to dominate trading, with the S&P 500 testing resistance at 2,672, and testing support at 2,647, at the end of the day, we closed at 2,656.

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S&P 500

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Taking A Look The Banks, And Prepping For Earnings Season

Banks

As of right now, it would seem that the financials will not be the group to lead stocks higher. JP Morgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo reported results and all three were down despite posting good results. It could be a combination of things at play, expectations were for better, all the good news has been baked in, or investors are concerned about slowing earnings growth. It doesn’t matter what the reason was, but what seems to be crystal clear to me at least, is that the banks will not be the group to lead this market higher.financials


Yields

I think for the most part the treasury yields on the long-end of the curve are not giving in and are refusing to rise, and again I think that is a function of the low yield environment globally. The Fed can control the short-end of the curve, but the Fed has no control over the longer-end the yield curve. As long as the free market controls the long-end of the curve, I think the yield curve may continue to flatten, and that is very bad for the banks and interest income.

The spread between German and US bond is fairly steep at over 2.3 percent, and that is likely a problem

yields

In fact, I continue to believe the 10-year is going back to 2.6 percent.

Amazon

Amazon failed to stay above 1,440. Again, bad!

amazon

Nvidia

So now, Citron is betting Jim Cramer $230k that Nvidia’s stock will be below $230 in 12 months.

All I can say to Citron is that Nvidia is a tough stock to bet against. I have never once traded a share of Nvidia long or short. But I have sure written plenty on it, and I for some time I was extremely negative on it, probably from around $100 to $200, :). Every time I thought Nvidia would crack, or revenue and earnings would slow, they didn’t. To this point, it still may be easy to bet shares of Nvidia continue to rise than to bet they shall fall. Good luck to those two, I’ll remain an onlooker.


Netflix

Netflix shares broke out today, and it managed to close above the downtrend. That is a positive, considering the stock is heading into results Monday after the close. The stock got a couple more upgrades today as well. I will put a pre-earnings look on Sunday, again.

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Tesla

Elon Musk was busy on Twitter today, first challenging the economist and claiming Tesla will be cash flow positive in third and fourth quarters, and then taking the blame for excessive automation causing problems in production.

I have no idea if Tesla will be cash flow positive or not by the third quarter. Lets first see how the first and second quarters go.

The one thing I do know is that that stock can’t get over $303.

tesla

Oil continues to rise and is getting closer to our $75 target.

oil

That’s it, see you Sunday! No commentary tomorrow, I’m taking the day off!

-Mike

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Tags: #stockmarket #sp500 #amazon #tesla #nvidia #netflix #jpmorgan #banks

 

 

technology stocks

Technology Stocks Are Getting Ready To Go Higher, Plus Much More


Technology Stocks Are Getting Ready To Go Higher

There were a couple of positive developments today. First, the S&P was higher, by 83bps, and closed at 2,663. Next, the close above that pesky resistance level at 2,660 we had been watching. Today also established that 2,672 is now the next resistance area. The last two times the S&P 500 got to 2,672 it was followed by two nasty downdrafts, resulting in a fall of about 3 percent back to 2,600, each time. A rise above 2,672 would be an immensely positive sign for a continuation of the most recent rally.

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S&P 500


Technology Stocks

A new trend line was born today for the technology sector, XLK, and for the first time in a while, the technology sector has a direction other than down. $67.10 continues to be a resistance level, but should it rise above resistance to say $67.50 it gives the ETF a perfect shot of filling the gap at $69.25.

technology

Nvidia

Nvidia looks to be heading back towards $245.

nvda

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Consumer Stocks

Discretionaries are continuing to struggle after hitting resistance around $102.

consumer

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Amazon

For right now, Amazon maybe the only stock capable of lifting the entire group. First, because it has a nearly 20 percent weighting in the ETF, second because today it closed above $1,440, a mild positive. There are still plenty of hurdles for Amazon to overcome; the most obvious is that the stock needs to stay $1,440.

amazon


Netflix

Netflix appears to be setting up for a breakout towards $322. The company reports results on Monday after the close; I will have a closer look at it over the weekend.

nflx


BANKS

Tomorrow will be a big day for the banks, with JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup all reporting before the open.

JP Morgan is slightly breaking out

jp morgan

But the setup in Citi doesn’t look nearly as strong.

citigroup

If the banks want to be a leading sector in the stock market, tomorrow will be the day they can prove they are capable are leading or not.

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Acadia

Why is Acadia not back to $22 already, after the BS story from Monday? I was shocked to see the FDA made a statement on it.

The stocks downdraft proves once again you can’t believe everything you read, and that understanding what you are invested is so extremely important.

At this point, I’d be happy if we filled the first gap at $22, but the one at $30 would be a whole lot better.

acad


Tesla

You know, I was gonna end after Acadia, but then I saw this stupid analyst comment that Tesla is going to fall $84, because, get this, “increasing competition.” Are there no cars sold today? Is Tesla the only automaker in the whole world? Of course not.

I’m sorry, but Tesla has competition today and has had competition since the moment Elon Musk thought about making a car. A car is a car, and the thought that because Audi or Mercedes is going to start making an electric car, people are suddenly going to stop buying Tesla’s seems crazy to me. If someone wants to buy a Mercedes, they can get one right now. I do not think the world has become entrenched enough in the thought process of buying only green cars, that everyone is now running to Tesla. Besides, just how green are electric cars? The energy to power the battery needs to come from somewhere.  They are undoubtedly better than gas but come on; you still need the energy.

By the way, once again, the proof is the Chevy Bolt, how many cars did Chevy sell so far in 2018? A crappy 4,375.  How many in 2017 total? 23,297. Btw, they cost nearly 3 times less than a Model S, so why not 3 times the sales if the electric part matter so much?

People are buying a brand; they aren’t buying it because of the engine or motor type.

Good luck tomorrow

-Mike

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Tags: #stockmarket #sp500 #amazon #tesla #acadia #nvidia #netflix #jpmorgan #banks

Stocks Breaking Critical Support And Could Be At Risk Of Falling Further


Stocks Breaking Critical Support And Could Be At Risk Of Falling Further

The stocks market recent bout of volatility is not only exhausting but confusing as well. It started in early February on inflation concerns, it moved to rising yields, to trade war fears, to Facebook, to Amazon, and now back to trade wars. So which is it? Not sure. But it does tell us one thing. The market and buyers are extremely fragile, and the slightest bit of negative news is enough to get traders to dump their shares.

It was January 29, that I warned stocks were looking toppy going into quarterly results, and for the most part those results were strong. But yet they weren’t enough to keep equity prices from dropping. But as I had noted back then, some of the prices had gotten way ahead of themselves. After the market bottom in early February, technology stocks took off once again, with shares of Amazon and Micron surpassing their previous highs, as analysts upgraded and raised their price targets.

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During the latest round of selling stocks likes Google, Netflix, Micron, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft have managed to hold on and avoided breaking some key levels of importance. But in Friday’s commentary, I noted concerns, and cracks started emerging, and that was extremely worrisome to me.

Nvidia

Nvidia, which has held extremely well at $218 finally broke, and that should be a concern.

 

The RSI has been trending lower since peaking in mid-February over 70, and volume has been tapering off in recent days. If the stock bounces Monday and is unable to get above $219, it is likely a good sign that next move is lower to around $204.


Apple

Apple share failed at resistance around $174 moving below support at $169. If that isn’t a crack then I do not know what one is. I think downside is limited here to maybe $160ish.

 

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Biogen

Biogen shares continue to melt, with no end in sight, it might not stop falling until $250.


Incyte

Incyte totally blew-up on Friday after reporting negative results on its trial for one its cancer drugs in development in combination with Merck’s Keytruda. This is just another example of why the Biotech sector has been so terrible in 2018.


Nektar

It took Nektar down with it.

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GE

I still think GE is heading to a $10 handle.

Blackberry

Blackberry cracked and could be headed towards $10.

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Microsoft

Microsoft held support at $91.50 until it no longer could. Not good.

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Micron

Micron held $49.75 until it cracked as well.

Google

But at least one stock is still holding on. It is the lone wolf here.

-Mike

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Tags: #sp500 #tech #technology #tesla #micron  #nvidia #google #blackberry #ge 

 

 

Nvidia, Micron, Apple, Amazon Showing Serious Cracks


Nvidia, Micron, Apple, Amazon Showing Serious Cracks

Despite all the market turmoil, for which the reason seems to change on a daily basis, the S&P 500 is only down 1.38 percent on the year. I think that is the more important thing to focus on, and not the daily swings of 2 percent. Becuase at the end of the day despite all the stock market volatility, the stock market has virtually gone nowhere!

So while the reasons for the market going lower seem to change, some things have held constant, until today, and those minor changes have caught my attention.

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Technology

First, the XLK breakout from the other day is being severely tested, with the downtrend now in play again.

technology

Biotech

The IBB is now below the February lows.

biotech

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Financials

The XLF failed in a big way at resistance, around $28.

xlf


Nvidia

Nvidia broke support at $218 and closed around $214.50, and for the first time in all the chaos shares look at serious risk of falling towards $200.

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Micron

Micron opened lower and retook $49.75, and like Nvidia, it gave way and closed well below support, and that is a bad sign too, with the potential for a further decline towards $46.75.

micron


Amazon

Amazon failed twice at resistance now around $1440 level, and I continue to think this one trades lower.


Apple

Apple closed below support at $169.

So Confused

Obviously, the market is far more significant than these four stocks, and at this point, it seems hard to predict what the potential next hurdle or hiccup comes in the markets way over the next week. It seems that everytime a bit of positive momentum builds it is meet with some obstacle that sucks the energy out of it.  From “trade wars,” to Amazon and the Post office, the FED, inflations, and yields. The stock market thus far this year seems like a moving target, and for the first time in about three years, I am having a hard time getting the general trend right, and that is bothering me.

But, the good news comes next Friday when the narrative will change to earnings. The only left to be to determined, will earnings push stock prices higher or will it become just one more thing the market can add to list of worries.

More this weekend.

-Mike

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

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Tags: #sp500 #tech #technology #tesla #micron  #nvidia #jobs #bls #sp500 #xlk

 

Stock Market Rally Continues, Jobs Report May Be Non-Event


Stock Market Rally Continues, Jobs Report May Be Non-Event

In the midday commentary, I noted that S&P 500 was running into some resistance around 2,675, and that level stood firm in the afternoon session. The job report tomorrow will prove critical as to whether the S&P 500 advances further, or suffer a setback.

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spx

Jobs Reports

The job numbers have been trend higher on the BLS, with y/y gains accelerating, and I do not expect that to change in tomorrow’s report. In fact, the strong ADP results support my belief that we will continue to see meaningful job acceleration.

In fact, I continue to believe we can see meaningful job creation, without the unemployment rate falling, as the U6 number is still rather high, historically.

The labor participation continues to be extremely low, and as workers continue to come back to the labor market, I expect that participation rate to continue to rise. Remember the U3 “headline” measure of unemployment is a lousy indicator to measure true unemployment, as it counts those recently unemploy and actively looking for work. Not those that gave up looking 6-12 months ago.

It is also the reason, why wage inflation is likely to stay in check when the reading comes out. I would not be surprised to see it lower this coming month than last.

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Technology

We can see that the technology ETF XLK failed multiple times around $66, we are going to want to see the technology ETF break above that level of resistance.

technology


Tesla

Tesla managed to get above the $303.5 level as I noted earlier in the day, and again that is a positive for the stock. The next big event for investors to worry about will be the burn rate when the company reports results sometime at the end of April or beginning of May.

tesla


Nvidia

I know the Citron tweeted today about Nvidia going sub $200, but for now, the market seems to disagree. $218 has been like a rock through a lot of market turmoil, and I’d be surprised if $218 cracks, something fundamentally would need to change, such as an earnings miss or poor guidance. But right now, I’m not seeing a move below $200 happening.

nvda

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Micron

It is the same thing with Micron, with the Sell rating by UBS. The area around $49.75 still seems stable, and it is going take more than a lone wolf downgrade to get this thing below that price.

micron

Qualcomm has seen some interesting option volume lately and could be pointing to a decline of 13 percent in the stock.

The opposite could be said with Netflix, as traders are betting shares rise over $320.

Good Luck Tomorrow

-Mike

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #tech #technology #tesla #micron  #nvidia #jobs #bls #sp500 #xlk

stock market amazon facebook twitter roku breakouts

The Stock Market Breaks Out, Is The Bottom Now In Place?


The Stock Market Breaks Out, Is The Bottom Now In Place?

We made it, the week, the month, and the quarter are all concluding together, and it couldn’t have come at a better time. The stock market is in rally mode, with the S&P 500 up about 1.7 percent as of 2:45, and the NASDAQ up about 2.1 percent. A strong rally and signs suggest stocks should continue to work higher.

Unlike Monday’s sharp rally, this rally comes after a close retest of the lows from March 23, around 2,600. Additionally, the S&P 500 was able to break free of resistance around 2,633, with a rise of above 2,647 giving me the sense we could make a move towards 2,691 come early next week.

S&P 500

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Vix

Look at the VIX fail at resistance.

vix

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Facebook

As I noted yesterday, signs were emerging that Facebook was bottoming, and today’s sharp rally confirms that bottom for now. In fact, shares have risen to $160, and the next stop will likely come around $166.


Alphabet

Google shares are also rising sharply today, after bottoming yesterday as well. The positive setup comes as the stock breaks the nearly two-week long downtrend. I think a rise towards $1080 is in the works.

google

Netflix

Netflix held above $273, and again crossed over $287, I’m looking for a rise of over $305 for now.

netflix

Amazon

Amazon is back above $1440, and a move back to $1500 seems possible over the short-term, but I think longer-term the stock still has plenty of downside risk.

amazon


Micron

Micron is struggling to get back over $52.25, But I think it does. The gap has been refilled, and the lower volume levels suggest to me that the selling pressure is waning. I think it has a chance to get to $56.

micron

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Biotech

Even biotechs are breaking out, look at the IBB rising above $107, we could be heading back to $111.50. That is a beautiful “W” in the chart

biotech

Biogen

Biogen is rallying, but I wouldn’t touch this thing unless it gets over $282.

biogen


Celgene

Is Celgene finally breaking out? Oh, do I hope so. I have been wrong time and time again with this.

 

celgene

Roku

I don’t think Roku is done falling. But borrow rate is down to 64 percent.

roku

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Twitter

Twitter managed to come all the way back to $27.25 and is now beginning to work higher. Look at that huge gap that just got filled.  It looks to be a nice setup.

twitter

Till Tomorrow.

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #tech #technology #amazon #vix #facebook #apple #google #biotech #futures #yen #euro #dollar #nvidia #mu #netflix #twitter #roku

stock market

It Is Now Crystal Clear Why The Stock Market Is Falling


It Is Now Crystal Clear Why The Stock Market Is Falling

It has been another wild day on Wallstreet, and it is now crystal clear what is going on. This isn’t about trade wars, it isn’t about the Fed, it is a technology-led sell-off of companies that appear to carry stretched valuations. But suddenly signs of separation began to emerge, along with signs of a bottoming for the broader market are being put into place.

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Facebook

We can start with the lead culprit, Facebook, which was up today. We can see that Facebook broke its intraday downtrend the other day and then retested all day yesterday. The fact that the downtrend broke, and support around $148-149 has held gives me hope the stock can begin to rebound. The first stop should it rebound is around $166. facebook

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Google

We can see a similar type of pattern in shares of Alphabet, which also managed to finish flat, but hold the $1000 level.

We can see in the chart, the same downtrend was broken, and a retest of that downtrend.

googl

The Technology ETF, XLK, didn’t break a downtrend, but it has continued to hold support and its long-term uptrend.

technology

Nvidia

Nvidia shares are also holding support above $218.

nvidia


Micron

Micron is trying to hold the base of the gap at $52.25. It needs to hold, or we are looking at $49.

micron


Netflix

I have been saying I thought Netflix would go to $295, and it did, and then it went straight to the next level at $287 and held.

nflx

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Tesla

Tesla shares have been crushed, falling to $257! Once the stock broke $290, that was it. You can see it tested $290,  tried to get above $303, and failed, and went straight down from their. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Model 3 Tracker is now trending at 2,000 cars per week. The bears are cheering victory, because they have been right for two days, after being wrong for nearly four years.

tesla

I’m going to try to be as dipolamatic with this as I can be. I have many times shown how Tesla Model S&X demand has been far better than the competition. To this point I see no evidence to suggest the demand has fallen. The delivery reports quarterly, the blogs I read, or the check of the local Tesla dealer. In fact, at least where I live, I still see more Tesla’s on the road, and based on my observations, they have been replacing the other higher end cars.

In term’s of Tesla liquidity, I always knew there was a risk at some point in 2018; Tesla might need to raise capital again. But concerning Tesla going bankrupt in “months” seems far-fetched in my opinion. As my old boss used to say to me: “All you need to do is a push a button, the capital markets are open for business.” And the markets are open for business, and Tesla can access that capital market any time they need.  There plenty of underwriter that would likely love to be lead left on the cover too.  Could Tesla come to market tomorrow and do a $3 billion equity deal, probably. That is why Tesla is a called a “growth” company, they invest heavily in capex and R&D.

Could I be dead wrong, and Tesla just disappears off the face of the earth. I sure can be, but that why investing carries risk, and for that risk, you get paid a return. Based on the trends and growth, and demand, it is a risk at this point I am still willing to take.

 

-Mike

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #tech #technology #amazon #vix #facebook #apple #google #biotech #futures #yen #euro #dollar #nvidia #mu #netflix

 

 

The stock market is going down because it is going down

The Stock Market Is Going Down Because It’s Going Down


The Stock Market Is Going Down Because It’s Going Down

I’m struggling to get a handle on what is happening, and the stock market feels more like a casino than anything else. The losses across the market evaporated the gains from yesterday, as technology stocks continue to get hammered. Did the trade war start back up? No.

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Go Take A Walk

When I was walking my dog tonight, the thought came to me, find out when the sell-off started and see what happened on those early days. The beautiful thing about writing this blog, and the member videos, is that it also serves as my notes of things I’m watching. So I came back home, and I looked, the latest wave of selling in the S&P 500 started around March 13 and 14. That was when I started noting about all the stupid upgrades in stocks like Amazon, Micron, and Nvidia, from Amazon conquering the world to Nvidia getting upgrades based on an upcoming movie, and Micron getting upgrades just because it broke the analyst’s previous price targets.  Even MarketWatch.com picked up on my observation.

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Air Coming Out?

Perhaps the sell-off is nothing more the air coming out of some these overhyped tech stocks, like Amazon, Micon, Nvidia, etc. Perhaps it is has nothing to do with trade wars or even my stupid theory about the Fed. Maybe it is selling off is because once again too much momentum was built into some of these technology stock and now the air is coming out.

Would you believe that Nvidia even after today’s brutal sell-off is still up since February 8, by 3 percent! While Amazon is up by nearly 11 percent. Microsoft is up 5.5 percent. Microsoft got a lame upgrade yesterday, actually.

NVDA Chart

NVDA data by YCharts

Amazon is still up 28 percent on the year, while Nvidia is still up 16 percent on the Year! Even Microsoft is up almost 5 percent.

NVDA Chart

NVDA data by YCharts

The Nasdaq 100 is up 2 percent on the year!  Geez the S&P 500 is only down 2 percent.

^NDX Chart

^NDX data by YCharts

Micron is up 27 percent on the year! Geez, even Macy’s is up 11 percent on the year. I only know that because I type an M instead of MU in the ticker field.

M Chart

M data by YCharts

 


VIX

Did the VIX break? I keep looking at it but it ain’t going anywhere. How is it only 22.50, what? How can that be, the NASDAQ was down 3 percent, but the VIX hardly moved.

Blame Facebook

The Facebook news stoked the fire and put the sell-off into overdrive.

Nvidia

Today Nvidia reignited the fears after the company said it was suspending the testing of the autonomous vehicle platform. The news broke around 12:15 and then carnage followed. The problem, the negative feedback loop. Nvidia makes up 8 percent of SOXX ETF, so Nvidia goes down, then SOXX ETF goes down, then Soxx ETF starts selling the positions in the portfolio, that puts pressure on the other ETF’s with stocks such as Intel, Broadcom, and so on. This is the one drawback of all the ETFs.

You can see the sell-off rather clearly and when it started, spreading like wildfire.

NVDA Price Chart

NVDA Price data by YCharts

Was it an overreaction, probably. Nvidia gets the majority of revenue from gaming. But the market has high hopes and expectations for data center, while the automotive end of there business has been slow growing. Of the $2.9 billion in revenue they did last quarter, $1.739 billion came from Gaming, $606 million from the data center, and $132 million from automotive.

The stock stopped right at support around $218 and found a bounce, that is the good news.

nvidia


Facebook

Facebook was down hard again today as well, 5 percent. Is Facebook putting in a double bottom? Well, let’s hope so.

facebook

Because the next level is around $138.

facebook

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Micron

Micron shares have now retraced all the way to $52, and have filled a gap. Now that the gap is filled will the bleeding stop? Let’s hope or the stock is going to $49.

mu

S&P 500

The S&P500 manage to at least stay even with the lows from Friday.

spx

I have nothing else to say for today. I need to take a break.  I suggest you do the same.

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Tesla

One comment on Tesla, I do not know how Model 3 production will be or what the burn rate is.  I read the blogs tracking the vins, the Bloomberg model 3 tracker, and I drive through the parking lots of Tesla stores looking for the elusive model 3, making into a game to keep my kids entertained. But if you are betting on Tesla going out of business, then you must also bet that it can’t raise funding through an equity offering. Or that someone like Tencent, who already owns a 5 percent stake, would not just buy them out.

-Mike

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libor stock market

The 4 Keys To The Stock Market For The Week Of March 26


The 4 Keys To The Stock Market For The Week Of March 26


It will undoubtedly be an interesting week, especially with the quarter end on Thursday, remember the markets are closed on Friday for Good Friday. The Eurekahedge 50, an index that measures the top 50 hedge funds, was up only 1.15 percent for the year at the end of February, and that was trailing the S&P 500 total return index of 1.83 percent. The Eurekahege 50 had a gain of only 6.96 percent in 2017, severely underperforming the S&P 500 total return gain of 21.83 percent. The last things these guys want to show is a big loss for the first quarter. So profit-taking could weigh heavily on some of the more significant gainers this final week, think Amazon, Netflix, Micron, and so on.

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Libor

I do not know the exact reason why the market is selling-off, nobody does for sure. But I have laid out the reason I think it is going down in a couple of articles this weekend. I have read in some different place that rising Libor is another source of concern, and yes it has increased a lot in recent weeks, and as of March 23 it stands at 2.29 percent. But the truth is that libor has been rising aggressively since the summer of 2015.

libor

I think the increasing spread between Libor and the Effective Funds Rate and the 3-Month Treasury, is nothing more than the Libor anticipating future rate hikes. In fact, that spread between Libor and Federal Funds Rate, already declined from 0.74 percent on March 15, to 0.61 percent currently, all since the Fed raised the effective funds rate.  Libor sure isn’t going to go down in a rising interest rate environment.

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Earnings

The outlook for earnings continues to be strong, S&P Dow Jones is forecasting earnings for 2018 to climb by 31 percent, and with the S&P at 2,588 as of March 23, it is trading at 17.97 times 2018 estimates of $144.01, and 16.5 times 2019 views of $156.23. I would not call that expensive. In fact, Tech, Consumer, and Healthcare are pretty cheap based on forward earnings estimates.

Fundamentally speaking the market doesn’t look expensive. But with that said, emotions, Algos, and ETF’s do not care about the fundamentals.

Sunday Night

So what will I be watching this week? Well, it starts Sunday at 6 PM EDT, first looking at the currency market and seeing which direction the dollar trades, most notably versus the yen and euro. Remember Japan is an export economy, so a strong yen is bad for Japan’s economy and the stock market, and that means Japan could be down big on Sunday night into Monday. The next thing we want to watch is how Europe trades, followed by the S&P 500 future, and more critical than price, will be the volume in the S&P Futures.

Notice the S&P 500 Future bottomed at 2,531 twice and it happened in the middle of the night, on huge volume! So I want to see if these big buyers come back.

S&P 500 futures

That is all before the market even opens at 9:30 am Monday.


Monday During The Day

During the day Monday, I want to see the VIX spike higher, over 30,  and massive levels of volume in the stock market. And as crazy as this sounds, a 1.5 –  2 percent decline in the morning, followed by a turn in the early afternoon with a strong finish into the close pushing the index to the positive, and ending near the highs of the day.  If this doesn’t happen Monday, then it likely means this is going to drag on for a few more days.

Also, you need to watch the market leaders the most closely during times like this, such as Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Alphabet, Microsoft. But the Banks will be another big group to watch, as well as Biotech. Biotech is the most aggressive part of the stock market in my opinion, and if risk comes back –  it happens in biotech first.

Is it a perfect system? No. But it comes with 25 years of experience at this game, and over the years, I have pieced this all together.

Hope it helps you start off the week.  Good luck.

-Mike

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #tech #technology #amazon #vix #facebook #apple #google #biotech #futures #yen #euro #dollar #nvidia #mu #netflix

stock market charts predict next

13 Charts That May Predict Where The Stock Market Goes Next


13 Charts That May Predict Where The Stock Market Goes Next

Every chart is broken, that is all I can say, and honestly looking at all of these charts is starting to get confusing. What makes the charts so complicated is that last week most of these very same charts where showing breakouts all over the place. That is what makes the events of the past few days so strange. What seems even more strange is the VIX at 25. The S&P 500 was down 6 percent last week, and the VIX is only at 25?

The term structure of the VIX is still in backwardation.

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^VIX Chart

^VIX data by YCharts

The term structure of the SPY ETF options market is normal, and that tells us Volatility is expected to be short-lived.

spy

But at the current levels, the VIX is not high enough to indicate a capitulation type moment, and that has me concerned.


SPY

The volume in the SPY is not even nearly as high as what we saw in early February.

S&P 500

It suggests the selling isn’t over just yet, and that event may come sometime early next week.

When the market is this type of sell mode, fundamental’s mean nothing, because the machines are in control, and for most the part these algo’s are looking for levels.

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Charts

Below I will run through a bunch charts I am watching closely, with the next support levels to watch for are, or levels that need hold.  I’m not saying the stocks go to those prices, I’m just saying this where they might gravitate towards. Also, if they hold it tells us a reversal may be in the works.

Technology ETF

The technology ETF has been entirely smashed and is right on its uptrend. Anyone who reads these columns enough knows these lines on the chart I don’t not change or move, once I have placed them. So the fact that the XLK closed right on the uptrend means something.

Again volume not that impressive in the XLK today either.

technology

Consumers

The same with consumer discretionary stocks.

consumer stocks

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Amazon

Amazon closed right at support around $1500, this is a significant level for Amazon, a break here, and it goes to the low $1,400’s.

amazon

Apple

Apple broke support at $168, it possible for a move to around $159.

apple

Google

Google must hold $1000, or we are going towards $920.

Google


Facebook

Facebook looks like it is going to $148.

facebook

Netflix

Netflix better hold at $295.

nflx

Tesla

Tesla must hold $290

tsla

Micron

Micron may be headed towards $49.

Nvidia

Nvidia..ugh $218???

nvda

More Saturday night into Sunday.

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Tags: #sp500 #tech #technology #amazon #vix #facebook #apple #google #tesla #nvidia #mu #netflix

 

 

 

 

 

roku acadia biogen nvidia tesla

Roku’s Borrow Rate Rises, plus Biogen, Acadia, Tesla, and Nvidia


Roku’s Borrow Rate Rises, plus Biogen, Acadia, Tesla, and Nvidia

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The sell-off continued again with the S&P 500 trading down to roughly 2,646, where a sturdy level of support lies. So for now, it looks like we have held, and my guess is that we could have another few points to the downside at most, and I expect that we turn higher again.

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Biotech

Biotech shares have also found some support around $113.75 on the broader NASDAQ Biotech $IBB ETF. I drew in a downtrend, just because it seems prudent at this point to do so, from the peak at $119.25 to $115.70. The breakout from the past week seems convincing enough to me to think we begin moving higher.

biotech

The XBI also failed at resistance, and we have seen a retracement the past couple of days as well. For now, the setup is still bullish, and if the pullback extends to $93.60, it is not the end of the world.

biotech


Incyte

Incyte shares have pulled back too, bringing into question the breakout. But for now, the pullback appears to be a fill the gap scenario more than a then a failed breakout. Tomorrow will be telling.

incy


Regeneron

Regeneron shares have risen, but a big test looms at $352 with an intense level of resistance waiting, my guess resistance holds, and the stock moves lower.

regeneron


Acadia

Acadia shares fell hard in recent days but have held support at around $25, and I think that means shares could be headed back towards $26.5. My hunch or gut feeling, as we approach the depression data later this fall, we may see some buyers or traders looking to cover short ahead of the news, and that could help to lift the price. Short Interest stood at roughly 10.3 million as of February 28.

acadia

Biogen

Biogen shares also started to bounce a bit too. It would be a positive should this stock start rising again for the group.

biogen


Roku

Roku’s borrow rate continues to surge, according to TradeAlert, the rate is over 100 percent. Insane.

 

Roku

In fact, we can also see the implied volatility levels on the options are rising the further into the future one goes.  It would suggest that traders are betting on the volatility in the stock to continuing rising, and thus the risk in the stock is rising as well.

roku

As of the February 28, short-interest surged to 9.946 million shares, representing 63.5 percent of the float!  That is massive!

ROKU Short Interest Chart

ROKU Short Interest data by YCharts

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AMD

AMD shares are entering a danger zone, with the stock moving towards the cusp of a breakdown. The $11.20 technical support significant, a break below send the price towards the $10.50 region.

 

amd

Tesla

In the latest round of Tesla drama, CNBC is reporting that the company is churning out flawed parts. When I saw this, I was like “is the old news or new news?” That is right it was just at the end of January they reported batteries were being put together by hand.

I’m not sure what the delivery rates or how batteries are being assembled, I’m not even sure today’s news is even new? It sounds a lot like old news. But it doesn’t matter because the stock went down as a result.

Somebody made a big bet share would fall to about $250 bucks today, with the purchase of about 4,000 contracts of the April $250 puts. The notional value is only about $500k. Not huge, but undoubtedly interesting.


Nvidia

Today was RBC’s turn to raise its price target on NVIDIA, by an astonishing $5 to $285, talk about sticking your neck out there. But what I find interest is that price adjustment comes despite Nvidia potentially facing a notable slowdown in cryptocurrency benefits. But of course, they see a scenario of $12+ in earnings per share by the year the year 2021, on data center and gaming! That is nearly $2.50 ABOVE consensus of $9.50 per share. So why only give the stock 15 percent upside, if you are looking for earning to come in 26% higher than consensus. I don’t know. Sorry, I don’t get it.

Until Tomorrow! Good Luck!

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Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own shares of ACAD, TSLA

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #technology #roku #tesla #nvidia #biotech #biogen #incyte #acadia