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The Stock Market Faces A Critical Test The Week of April 23

The Stock Market Faces A Critical Test The Week of April 23

The Stock Market Faces A Critical Test The Week of April 23

Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own shares of NXPI, V, and SBUX

The week of April 23 will be a big week for earnings, and I already highlighted in my five predictions for earnings the outlooks for AMD, Alphabet, Microsoft, Facebook, and Amazon. But there are plenty of others such as Intel, Qualcomm, PayPal, Visa, Ford, General Motors, Starbucks, Exact Sciences, and the big Oil companies Exxon and Chevron.


Earnings Outlook

Yes, earnings do matter, and more important will be those outlooks for the coming quarters. According to data from Dow Jones S&P Indices, earnings are expected to climb by 40 percent in 2018 to $153,90 from $109.58  in 2017, that is a massive rise in profits, for one-year, and that leaves the S&P 500 trading at 17.35 times 2018 estimates. Earnings are seen climbing another 10 percent in 2019 to $168.64 and that leaves the S&P 500 trading at 15.8 times 2019 estimates. What do you think happens to those estimates should earnings be better than expected? That is right, full-year numbers come up; if they are weaker than predicted those estimates come down. In both cases, we find out stocks are cheaper than or more expensive than we thought. So how big are earnings and the outlooks? Very big.

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Chips

Semiconductors have been hammered over the past week, and with Intel, Texas Instruments, and Qualcomm reporting we are going to get a perfect sense if Taiwan Semi was a one-off, or if there is more pain in the group to come.

 

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Intel

Intel has been trending higher, and the relative strength index looks like a loaded coil, ready to pop. Meanwhile, the trend is overwhelmingly bullish, and that makes me think the stock pops higher.


Qualcomm/NXP

Qualcomm is near the low-end of the range, and perhaps we get some good news this week on some progress regarding the NXP Semiconductor deal. The NXP deal is a massive deal for Qualcomm and is extremely important to drive future revenue growth for the company.

qualcomm

As a shareholder of NXP, I’d love to get my $127.50 per share, from Qualcomm. But I’m more than okay if they don’t, because I continue to love this company going forward as a standalone, especially when trading 12.5 times next year earnings.


Starbucks

Starbucks has been trending higher, but every quarter has been met with disappointment. It will come down to same-store comps, and growth in China this quarter.

Despite all the headwinds this company has faced, an all-time is within reach.

 


Exact Sciences

Although my trading channel may be to narrow, the direction of the trend seems to be one way.


PayPal

The trend in PayPal is lower at this point, and the RSI is trending that way as well. Support at $73 is extremely important in this case, should PayPal fall.


Visa

Visa has been in a channel now for some time, and it appears shares and the RSI have both broken out from a downtrend, with a positive setup in place.

visa

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Exxon

Exxon shares can’t get out of a long-term downtrend, and while support at $72 held, this stock is not going anywhere until it breaks above that downtrend.

xom


Chevron

Chevron may have room to rise towards $135.

chevron

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Ford

I think the Ford chart is self-explanatory.

That is gonna be it. Good Luck

 

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #stockmarket #sp500 #amazon #facebook #amd #alphabet #microsoft #earnings

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5 Monster Stock Predictions For Earnings During The Week of April 23

5 Monster Stock Predictions For Earnings During The Week of April 23

5 Monster Stock Predictions For Earnings During The Week of April 23

Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own shares of GOOGL

With earnings seasons underway, the intensity picks up in a big way this coming week, with Alphabet kicking things off this Monday afternoon, and then companies like AMD, Qualcomm, Facebook, PayPal, Amazon, Microsoft, and Intel later in the week. I have highlighted and attempted to predict the direction of the stocks following results, for five stocks, Alphabet, AMD, Facebook, Microsoft, and Amazon. Hope you enjoy, and good luck.

 

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Alphabet

Estimates

Shares of Alphabet have a one-year forward PE ratio of about 22, putting it among some of the cheapest technology companies. Analysts are looking for the company to report that first-quarter earnings fell by 7 percent to $9.28 per share, while revenue is expected to climb by over 22 percent to $30.26 billion. Revenue estimates have been creeping up since the start of the year, from $29.43 billion, according to Ycharts, a rise of 1.78 percent.

Options

The long straddle options strategy for expiration on May 18, are not pricing in a massive move in Alphabet shares, a rise or fall of only 7 percent, placing the stock in a trading range of about $1000 to $1150 from the 1,075 strike price.

The implied volatility is currently around 47, and that suggests a one standard deviation move of about of 6.5 percent, so again not a huge move.

Technicals

The technical’s are sending mixed signals, but that seems to be the case with every stock chart these days. The stock price recently filled a gap at $1,096 but failed to break above that resistance level. But there is a clear uptrend in the chart currently, and the $1,000 level acted as a firm support level during a time that saw very high volume levels. Additionally, it is clear that volume declined as the stock settled in around $1,000 support, which would suggest that selling pressure was easing, resulting in the stock move higher. Additionally, the relative strength index (RSI) reached an oversold condition in mid-February, and that lead to an RSI that is rising and trending higher, while the downtrend in the RSI had been broken.

googl

Price Target

The average analyst price target would suggest a rise of about 17 percent, to $1275.

The underlying technicals are bullish; the options market seems not to be looking for a big move in shares of Alphabet either, which likely implies no big surprises, while analyst trends in revenue and earnings have been relatively steady.

It would seem to suggest to me that the market is set for shares of Alphabet to rise post-earnings.

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AMD

Estimates

AMD is expected to report on April 25, and analysts estimates are expecting revenue to rise by 59 percent to $1.566 billion, while earnings are forecast to be flat at $0.09 per share. That doesn’t give me a warm and fuzzy feeling. It would suggest two things going into these results, a risk of a significant miss or a significant beat. But based on the latest set of results from Lam Research and Taiwan Semi, it makes me a little bit concerned for a miss; there seem to be a tremendous amount of operational risk here such as declining margins, or revenue falling short.

Options

The options market appears to agree, because the long straddle options strategy is pricing in a rise or fall for the stock of 13.7 percent by expiration on May 18, from the $10 strike price. It places the stock in a trading range of $8.65 to $11.35.  The puts at the $10 strike price out weight the call by a ratio of nearly 2:1 with 51,000 open put contracts to approximately 25,000 call contracts, again a bearish indication.

The term structure of the implied volatility implies a tremendous amount of volatility too. The near-term options have an implied volatility level over 90 over the next seven days, and that also means a rise or fall in the stock about 12.5 percent.

Technicals

The technical chart is also bearish at this point, with a clear downtrend in place, while failing at resistance at $10.70. The RSI is also trending lower, while volume levels have yet to reach a capitulation type of moment.  Should the stock rise on better than expected results a jump to $11.70 seems possible, while bad results could see the stock fall to early April lows around $9.

Analyst Price Targets

The average price target on the stock has been trimmed since the start of the year falling to $13.77 down from $14.04, a decline of nearly 2 percent. Meanwhile, of the 31 analysts that cover the stock 35 percent rate the stock a “buy” or “outperform,” while 45 percent rate it a “hold,” and 19 percent rating it an “underperform” or “sell.”

All of these signals appear to be negative and suggest the market seems setup for shares to fall post results.


Facebook

Facebook’s results are going to be huge, as investors await commentary on the fall out from the Cambridge Analytica data scandal.

Estimates

Analysts are looking for Facebook to report that earnings fell by 1.75 percent to $1.34 in the first-quarter, while revenue is seen rising 42 percent to $11.42 billion. Facebook naturally will significant expenses in the future when it comes to putting more staff in place to better monitor what is happening on its platform. In fact, analysts have trimmed their earnings results for the quarter from $1.38 per share since March 19.

Options

The options market has an implied volatility of roughly 55 percent, and that suggests a one standard deviation move of about 7.6 percent, putting the stock in a trading range of $153 to $179.

Technicals

The technical chart still has a solid downtrend in place, but the big volume levels in the stock around $150, also suggest a current floor in the stock. The RSI also hit oversold levels at the end of the March, but, it too still has a solid downtrend in place.

facebook

Other Factors

Rising cost continues to be a significant issue for Facebook going forward, while it is also unclear how users are responding, and the overhang of potential regulatory issues loom.

It would not be surprising to see a retest of the $150 lows following results.


Microsoft

Estimates

Analysts estimates see Microsoft earnings climbing by 16.5 percent when it reports fiscal third-quarter results to $0.85, while revenue is seen jumping by only 9.5 percent. Analysts are bullish on Microsoft and have been raising their price target on the stock since the start of the year, pushing the price target to $105.71, up by 13.15 percent since January 5, from roughly $93.40.

Options

The options market is not implying a big move in shares of Microsoft post results, with an implied volatility of roughly 44 percent. It represents a rise or fall of 6 percent. The $95 Calls set for expiration on May 18 outweigh the puts by a ratio of 9 to 1, with almost 39,000 open call options versus 4,000 put contracts. The number of open call contracts is a sizeable dollar bet at that strike price worth nearly $11.8 million.

Technicals

The chart is sending bearish indications, with an RSI trending lower and falling volume levels as the stock price continues to rise, two bearish divergences. Meanwhile, the long-term trend is higher though, and that is a still a bullish signal.

The options market and analysts price target are both overwhelming bullish, and with such a big jump in revenue during the quarter, it may not be too hard for the company to top earnings estimates. The real test will come should shares be able to breakout technically and rise above $97. Be mindful of a gap higher following results, only for that gap to be refilled.

microsoft


Amazon

Estimates

Amazon’s stock is up nearly 31 percent on the year and has been among the best-performing stocks in the market. Analysts estimates are looking for revenue to have climbed by 41 percent, to $49.92 billion, while earnings are seen falling by nearly 18 percent to $1.22 per share. Amazon has a history of being incredibly inconsistent when reporting earnings, with either big beats or significant misses. It all comes down to how much the company is investing in R&D and such during the quarter.

Options

The implied volatility is at 61 percent, and that means shares could rise or fall by 8.5 percent, putting the stock in a trading range between $1398 and $1656. The options set to expire on May 18 at the at the $1530 strike price have put to call ratio of about 1:1, with 4,900 open call contracts to 4,500 open put contracts.

Technicals

There is a long-term uptrend in the stock, but the RSI has turned bearish, with the RSI trending lower. There was a significant surge in volume when shares reached $1360, and that would seem to be strong support for now. But with the divergence in the stock price and the RSI, it would suggest that shares still have further to fall, after results.

amazon

Hope you enjoyed the 5 predictions for earnings for the coming week.

-Mike

 

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #stockmarket #sp500 #amazon #facebook #amd #alphabet #microsoft #earnings

netflix earnings preview

Netflix Monster First Quarter Earnings Preview- A Complete Breakdown


Netflix Monster First Quarter Earnings Preview- A Complete Breakdown

Netflix will be the headliner this week when it comes to earnings. As I mentioned in the write-up last week, Google trends have been showing strong international interest. Cities like Mumbai and New Delhi are seeing significant search interest, while city-state Singapore is also up there over the past year.

(Google Trends)

It is a trend that has continued over the past quarter as well.

(Google Trends)


Options

Options are pricing in a massive amount of volatility after results. Look at the implied volatility term structure, with a reading near 90! Huge!

The long staddle option strategy is pricing in a rise or fall of nearly 10 percent for the $312.50 strike price, set to expire on April 20. Again a huge move. Keep in the S&P 500 has implied volatility term structure that is less than 14 percent! Netflix is nearly 90%.

Analyst Estimates

Analysts estimates are calling for earnings to climb by nearly 57 percent to $0.63 per share, while revenue is expected to jump by 40 percent to $3.69 billion. But the most critical metric’s will be those subscriber growth number and the outlook for net additions in the second quarter.


Subscriber Growth

The company is guiding for 6.35 million net additions in the quarter, bringing the total subscribers to roughly 124 million. But I think it may take a much more significant beat to move the stock higher.  According to my projections, the company should report result roughly in-line with expectations.

(Mott Capital)


Technical Breakout

The technical chart suggests shares could see a significant rise though, with a breakout occurring on Friday, and that could lead shares much higher, perhaps to new records post results.

netflix

So all that is left now is for the company to report those results.

Michael Kramer and Clients of Mott capital own shares of NFLX

Photo credit via Flickr

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #netflix #earnings

stock market s&p 500 rise 2018

Why Earnings Will Fuel The Stock Market’s Rise In 2018

Why Earnings Will Fuel The Stock Market’s Rise In 2018

The week of February 20 may help to give investors some clarity on the general direction of the stock market. But the good news is that earnings growth continues to build, and that should continue to be the focus for investors. Not rising interest, not inflation, just stay focused on earnings growth.

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Earnings Growth

S&P Dow Jones Indices is estimating operating earnings to grow by a stunning 24.93 percent in 2018 to $156.25. It is also projecting earnings to increase by another 10 percent in 2019 to $172.10 per share.

Earnings expectation have risen since the end of 2017 as well, and that is a positive. Since December 31, 2018, estimates for 2018 have climbed by nearly 7 percent, from $145.80.

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Historically Cheap

With the S&P 500 trading 2,732 as of February 16, it was valued at 15.8 times 2019 operating earnings! Using data from S&P Dow Jones Indices, starting in 1988 through the end of 2017, the average operating P/E multiple has been 18.8, with a standard deviation of 4.1, making the range roughly 14.7 to 22.9. At our current earnings multiple, the S&P 500 is trading on the cheaper side of history, and likely has room to continue to rise. Should the S&P 500 just merely reflect the historical average of 18.8 times 2018 operating earnings of 156.25 by year-end, it would be trading at roughly 2,941. I still happen to think the S&P 500 can eclipse 3,000 in 2018.

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Sectors Cheap As Well

Even by sector standards, stocks are cheap, according to S&P, the information technology earnings send rising by 23 percent in 2018 to $62.57, while the group is trading at 18.7 times 2018 estimates. Healthcare is expected to grow by 24 percent in 2018 to $60.88 and trades at only 16 times 2018 estimates. As the chart below the S&P and some of its biggest sectors, technology, healthcare, and discretionary stocks are trading at historically cheap valuations, over the past decade.

S&P 500 valuation
S&P Dow Jones Indices

Paying A Multiple

2018 is all about earnings and growth and should earnings continue to stay strong then the multiple investors are willing to assign to those earnings should increase as well.

The question becomes can earnings estimates continue to rise, or shall those expectations begin to come down as the year goes on?

For now, it is hard to argue the stock market is expensive, especially when we looking at the possibility of very strong earnings growth over the next 24 months.

That is it for today. Good Luck

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Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own shares of NFLX and TSLA

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #stock #market #3000 #rise #earnings

 

Looking Ahead To Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook, and AMD Results

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Looking Ahead To Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook, and AMD Results

Earnings take center stage this coming week, and there is no shortage of big companies reporting. In this commentary, we shall focus on AMD, Facebook, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon.

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AMD

AMD will report on Tuesday after the close, and analysts are looking for the company to say fourth-quarter revenue grew by almost 27 percent to $1.401 billion, while earnings were flat vs. last year at $0.05. Earningswhisper.com is looking for the company to beat by a penny, reporting $0.06.

The table below shows how AMD is reasonably consistent and can regularly beat revenue estimates.

amdThe long straddle options strategy is calling for a rise or fall of about 12 percent following AMD’s results. That is because to buy one put and one call set for expiration on February 2 cost about $1.45, using the $13 strike price. But the calls have nearly 8,500 contracts of open interest, vs. only 1,100 puts. Suggesting that more traders are betting on shares of AMD to rise following results.

amd earnings preview

AMD stock is sitting at a critical resistance level at $12.95, with a rise above it taking the shares to about $14.25, refilling nearly a four-month-old gap, created when the company last reported results in October. The relative strength index (RSI) is only around 65 and suggests that the stock is not overbought, and could continue to rise.

 

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Facebook

The next big company to report will be Facebook on Wednesday after the close. Share recently came under pressure, after Mark Zuckerberg noted coming changes to the News Feed, but shares have recouped all of these losses in the past week.  Analysts are looking for revenue to have risen by about 43 percent to $12.55 billion, and earnings to have climbed by about 40 percent to $1.97. Earningswhisper.com is looking for Facebook to beat estimates and report $2.05.

Historically,  Facebook has beaten its earnings estimates, every quarter going back to fourth quarter of 2015.

fbearningsbeat

The options market is looking for only a 6 percent rise or fall after the company reports results. That is because the long straddle options strategy for the $190 strike price cost about $11.10 to buy one put and one call, and that means the stock could trade in a range of about $179 to $201, using the options set to expire on February 2. The open interest heavily favors the calls, with roughly 15,000 contracts compared to puts of only 1,800. It suggests more bets are being placed on shares rising.

The chart is also suggesting shares continue to rise. The stock has recently broken out, with shares rising above resistance around $180. The RSI is also reasonably low only around 60 and suggests shares could continue to increase as well. Additionally, the chart shows there is firm support for the stock just below $180.

fb earnings preview

Microsoft

Microsoft is also set to report on Wednesday after the close and expectations are for the company to report fiscal second-quarter revenue growth of nearly 10 percent to $28.41 billion, while earnings grew by about 3 percent to $0.86. Earningswhisper.com for the company to report earnings of $0.90.

The company has a history of beating earnings estimates in the past as well. microsoft earnings estimates

The $95 option set for expiration on February 2, are implying a move of about 5 percent, with the cost to buy one put and one call being $4.65. That puts the stock in a trading range of roughly $90.50 to $99.70. The number of open puts and calls is insignificant for this expiration date, which suggests the market is not looking for a much of surprise when Microsoft reports.

Microsoft’s chart suggests shares may be overbought at current levels, based on an RSI reading of about 80. Additionally, the RSI has been trending lower, versus the rising stock price, creating a divergent bearish indication. In fact, the RSI peaked back at the end of October, the last time Microsoft reported results, creating a significant gap in the chart.

The first level of support comes around $86. But should $86 fail, the next support region begins at $79, which also fills the gap.

microsoft

Apple

Apple is the headliner for the week, reporting results on Thursday after the close. It is anyone’s guess to how Apple will report results, and more importantly guide the forward quarter. To this point, there has been so much back and forth in the analyst community that it is nearly impossible to tell which side is right. The bear camp believes there is a risk to forward guidance, while the bull’s do not see the same level of concern.

 

While I do not have the same level of access to the supply chain as the analysts, it seems hard to believe the data can be so contrasting from the two sides. But we do know that in the middle of December Jabil and Broadcom issued strong results and substantial forward guidance, while semi-equipment companies ASML and Lam Research, have reported strong results more recently.

But again, the Apple suppliers stocks continue to act very poorly, while Verizon even noted an elongation to the upgrade cycle. 

Given how big Apple is in the handset market, it seems hard to believe that Apple will miss badly when it reports forward guidance. Also given Apple’s history of embarrassing those that bet against it, it is not something I would want to do.

Analysts are looking for earnings to have risen by about 14 percent in the fiscal first quarter to $3.82, while expectations are for revenue to have increased by 11 percent to $87 billion. But more importantly will be guidance, which is expected at $2.89, on revenue of $67.20 billion.

Meanwhile, as I wrote about for Investopedia this past week, there are plenty of bullish bets being placed in the options market.

Amazon

Amazon is also reporting on Thursday, and what will happen there is the big mystery. The street is looking for earnings of $1.83, and unless it is a colossal beat or big miss, profits do not matter, because everyone knows Amazon just plays with investors when it comes to the bottom line. Nobody embarrasses Wall Street like Amazon can.  The past two quarters are perfect examples.

amazon earnings estiamtes

But that revenue number does matter a great deal, and analysts are looking for that to have grown by astounding 37 percent to $59.85 billion. The stock is already up 20 percent in 2018, and the options market is implying a rise or fall of about 7 percent using the $1,400 strike price options set to expire on February 2, putting the stock in a range of roughly $1305 to $1495.

The huge run-up in the stock means expectations going into this print are massive, the only question that remains is if Amazon can pull off a Netflix like move, and crush even those expectations.

That is it for today back tomorrow with more for the week ahead.

 

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2017 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #earnings #previews #apple #amazon #amd #facebook #microsoft

netflix

Why Netflix Stock May Still Be Very Cheap

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Why Netflix Stock May Still Be Very Cheap

Mott Capital Management, Michael Kramer

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Netflix shares may be jumping in the after-hours, by nearly 10 percent to $247, but the stock is getting more reasonably valued. It is crazy to think that expectations for the company were sky high going into this quarterly print, and the company not only beat those expectations they crushed them. The company reported that total net addition grew by 8.33 million, and impressively 2.0 million came from the US, with global subscribers exceeding 117 million.

Adding to the monster beat,  the company is guiding the first quarter net adds to 6.35 million. The results were tremendous and utterly shocking to me, far better than my wildest imagination, and apparently, the market felt the same way.

 

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Strong Fundamentals

What makes these numbers even more impressive is that the fundamentals reported makes shares of Netflix reasonably cheap at the current level compared to the last few quarters. If the first quarter guidance comes, true Netflix’s Annualized Average Revenue Per Subscriber will surge to nearly $119, while its Market Cap – To- Value of Subscriber Ratio falls back to 7.29, from 8.18, more on this below.

At the current pace of growth, Netflix is looking like it may reach 140 million subscribers by the end of 2018.

netflix

ARPU has been trending higher as well, and that number should continue to grow, as the price hikes in the US take full effect. Remember Netflix gives new subscribers the first 30-days for Free.

netflix arpu

The rate at which the market is now valuing each subscriber for Netflix is climbing as well and presently stands at roughly $870 per subscriber. That is because as ARPU rise, it makes the value of each subscriber worth more in-terms of future cashflow opportunities.

netflix

When you divide ARPU by the market cap per subscriber, you get what I call the Market Cap To Value per Subscriber ratio, which declined because of the strong first quarter guidance.

Still Cheap

Creating original content is working for Netflix and it seems for now as long as they are willing to spend and create good content, then the subscribers will come.

Netflix not only has the content, but at this point, it still has plenty of pricing power left as well, which means further price hikes are likely coming. In fact, with nearly 2 million subscribers in the US coming after the most recent price hike, it suggests that subscribers are still finding plenty of value from the Netflix offering.

Think about this way one year of paying for Netflix is still cheaper than the cost of my monthly cable bundle. Truth be told, in about another years times I will probably have a 5G connection on my iPhone and iPad, and since I’m already watching nearly 90 percent of Netflix from my iPad, the days of needing Cable are slowing coming to end. Even if Netflix raised the price to $25 a month, it would still be a bargain for the amount of content they offer and the amount of time spent on it.

We are still in the very early innings of this ballgame, with many innings left to play.

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Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own shares of NFLX

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2017 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #netflix #earnings

 

 

 

Biogen earnings preview

What The Market Thinks About Biogen’s Upcoming Results – Premium Content

What The Market Thinks About Biogen’s Upcoming Results

In this premium video, we take a look at what the market may be expecting when Biogen reports results on January 25.

 

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Mott Capital Management, Michael Kramer

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2017 Mott Capital Management, LLC. Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: $BIIB #BIIB #Biogen #earnings #biotech

earnings season

A Preview Of Earnings Season

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A Preview Of Earnings Season

Earning season is now upon, with results starting this week. The heat will get turned up next week with some significant reports. The big names the week of the January 22, will be Netflix ($NFLX), Johnson & Johnson ($JNJ), Verizon ($VZ), General Electric ($GE), Lam Research ($LRCX), Celgene ($CELG), Intel ($INTC), Starbucks ($SBUX), and Caterpillar ($CAT).

  

Below I have compiled a table using Ycharts and Earnings Whispers of earnings dates, consensus estimates, and some other handy stats.

I shall be putting out some earning previews, in the premium section over the next few days.  The first is below.

 

Good Luck!

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Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own shares of $CELG, $NFLX, $VZ, $SBUX, and $GOOGL

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2017 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #earnings #quarter #2017 #fourth

Banks And Inflation Will Be In Focus This Week

Banks

The calendar is heating up this month, and just because it is summertime doesn’t mean the market stops either. This week kicks off earnings, and we get some key inflation data at the end of the week as well.

The earnings kick-off with JP Morgan (JPM), Citigroup (C), PNC Financial (PNC), and Wells Fargo (WFC) all reporting on Friday.


BANK EPS and Revenue Estimates, Citigroup, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, PNC, Stock, wfc, jpm, c, pnc

Estimates Provided By YCharts

One reason we care about the Banks is they caught a bid in recent weeks as rates on the long-end of the curve have started creeping up. We want to see that higher momentum continue and see what kind of commentary they give us on the state of the overall economy.
XLF Chart

XLF data by YCharts

Read The Mott Capital Second Quarter Letter

Ten-Year Rates

We can see rates have moved subnationally higher over the last couple of weeks.
^TNX Chart

^TNX data by YCharts

So much for the flattening yield curve stupidity….
10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread Chart

10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread data by YCharts

Inflation

As for the inflation side of the equation, that data comes at the end of the week with PPI Thursday, July 13, and CPI on Friday, July 14. As if that wasn’t enough, we get to see retail sales and Industrial Production too.

PPI vs. WTI OIl
Of course, if you want to know where PPI and CPI are going just follow oil.

CPI Vs. WTI OIl

Which way you do you think CPI and PPI will be this month? My guess, lower than last month.

Enjoy your week.

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Disclaimer

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendation made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

#Banks #Inflation #Rates #Earnings