The first quarter of 2024 was a strong one for the broader S&P 500, but risk remain below the surface.

Stock rally, rates and the dollar rise.

Stocks, bonds, and the dollar all hit some critical levels of support and resistance on Friday.

Stocks managed to rebound on May 2, ahead of the big April Jobs report.

Stocks got there usual Volatility crush sending them higher, until it ran out of steam.

Stocks feel sharply on Tuesday April 30, 2024, and it is almost as if the bear can feel it in the air.

April 29 was a quiet day for markets, but don’t expect it to last.

This will be a very big week for data, the Fed and the Treasury.

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Starting tomorrow we get GDP and PCE ahead of nexts weeks alphabet soup of data and Fed meeting. Get Ready

Stocks rallied for a second day in a row, as the dollar and rates remained subdued ahead of 2 weeks of data.

Stocks rallied on April 22, ahead of big week of data and 3 Treasury auctions.

This week’s economic data and earnings could unleash the bears from hibernation.

Stocks fell again as options flows and liquidity now work against the market.

Stocks fell again with Nvidia now trading at that critical level of support at $850.

The Fed is walking back its view on the number of rate cuts, and now the market see less than 2 in 2024.

Stocks plunge on April 15, 2024 as rates and the dollar surge following a hotter than expected retail sales number.

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The March CPI report proved to be hotter than expected.

Stocks dropped early and snapped back late in a volatile session ahead of the March CPI report.

Stocks stalled on April 8 as the world stopped to watch the Solar Eclipse, while Nvidia and Apple contend with double top patterns.

The March CPI report could result in the dollar and rates surging, tightening financial and sealing the stock markets fate.

Stocks finished the day lower as implied volatility surged heading into the big March Job report.

Copper and oil prices surged on April 3, and showing signs of possibly going higher as stocks stall out.

4/2/24 #Stocks – #Macro – $SPX, $DXY, #RATES Mike’s Reading The Markets Macro Subscription Service on Seeking Alpha – Get 50% off through Monday Apri 1, at 9:30 AM ET … Continue reading Rates Breaking Out Will Be Bad News For Stocks →

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The BTFP program at the Fed is draining, and that means that reserves balances are likely heading lower from here, and that could create a liquidity challenge for the market.

It certainly looked like the casino was open today, based on the stock markets wild ups and downs, as 0-DTE flows took hold.

Stocks were trading higher most of March 26, but fell sharply in the final 30 minutes of the day.

Credit spreads are starting to widen, and that needs to be watched closely.

Stocks could be in for a strange week of trading starting with a lunar eclipse on March 25 and ending with a Jay Powell Q&A session on March 29, a day the market is closed.

Stocks and the dollar rise following weak central bank actions.

Stocks rose today as the implied volatility fell sharply during the FOMC press conference, as previously noted.

The VIX fell on March 19, but the VIX 1-day rose ahead of the FOMC meeting.

Stocks rallied on March 18 ahead of the Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve policy decisions later this week.

The Bank of Japan will be on Tuesday to make a decision on monetary policy followed by the Fed on Wednesday.

Stocks fell on March 14, 2024 as a hot PPI report sent interest rates and the dollar sharply higher.

Stocks fell today, but commodities prices were breaking out all over the place as inflation risk coming back to life.

Stocks rose today as Implied volatility fell sharply despite rising rates and hotter CPI.

CPI inflation swaps are pricing in a hot CPI report on March 12 and the equity market moved implied volatility sharply higher today.

The CPI report is due to come on Tuesday, and swaps are pricing in a hotter than expected report for February.

The AI mania appears to be running the asylum.

Stocks bounced back on March 5, 2024 after Jay Powell gave pretty dull commentary in front of Congress.

Stocks dropped on March 5, one day ahead of Jay Powell Congressional testimony.

Stocks fell on Monday March 4 with losses offset by Nvidia.

It is a big week of market moving data including the job report, and Jay Powell, but perhaps more important is Broadcom for the AI hopefuls.

Stocks were driven higher in the final hour of trading on a big end of month buy imbalance.

Stocks fell on February 28, as inflation expectations continue to inch higher, and oil sits on the cusp of breaking higher.

It seems clear that something is going on in rates and inflation complex that stocks just haven’t caught on to yet.

Stocks couldn’t catch a bid on Monday, February 26, 2024, and may now be running on empty.

It seems that chicken wings and AI have a lot in common these days.

Stocks finished higher today chasing Nvidia higher all day long.

Nvidia reported good results, but the question if they are good enough to move the stock above $750.

Options expiration has come an gone, and now it may be to ask if the market has topped out or not?

Stocks rallied on February 15 just ahead of the big PPI inflation and option expiration.

Stocks rose on February 14, as a mysterious bid came into the market late in the day.

The VIX soars and bear roar following a hotter than expected January CPI report.

Stocks saw a sharp intraday reversal as rising implied volatility levels finally caught up to rising stock prices.

Nvidia has been a big reason why the stock market has continued to push higher, the question is how much further.

Rates and the dollar are showing indication of going sharply higher from current levels.

The divergence between stocks and just about everything at at point that something may be ready to give.

Stocks rose sharply on February 6, 2024 despite a big decline in New York Community Bank

2/5/24 #Stocks – $NVDA #Macro – $SPX, $DXY, #RATES Mike’s Reading The Markets Macro Subscription Service on Seeking Alpha Some Recent Titles: Rates And The Dollar Move Higher Following ISM … Continue reading Nvidia Goes Supernova As Stocks Fall And Rates Rip →

It has taken the market a long time to get to this point, and it may be time to turn the page on volatility and the VIX.

Stocks finished the day higher one day ahead of the January job report.

Rates cuts? You want rate cuts?

Earnings are coming into and it seems to be a case of it never being enough for Mr. Market.

Stocks rose on January 29, 2023 and so did the VIX and Implieds and odd day indeed.

The biggest week of 2024 is already here for the stock market and treasury rates.

Stocks finished the day higher, but implied volatility was higher too.

Stocks pumped higher in the morning but gave it all back days end.

Stocks today, but stayed inside of yesterday’s trading range despite the rates, the dollar, and spreads all rising on January 24, 2024.

Stocks started higher and then stalled out mid-day, while high yield credit spreads pushed higher.

Earnings season will move into high gear this week as both Tesla and Netflix post their quarterly results and the options market may have something to say about where the stocks go.

Markets were turbulent in 2023 while generally trending higher. A big summer rally was given back in weeks during October, followed by a fast rebound, which brought the S&P 500 … Continue reading 2023 Mott Capital Thematic Growth Composite Update →

Tomorrow’s OPEX tomorrow will release the market to trade much more freely after tomorrow.

Stocks finished lower today, as the macro and the micro come into alignment.

Stocks finished lower as the VIX, the dollar, and rates finished higher.

Supportive flows in the market may fade after this weeks options expiration.

Its a long 3-day weekend coming up, enjoy it.

Stocks finished the day higher, as volatility was crushed ahead of the CPI report.

Today we will take a look at China CSI 300 Index.

Stocks finished the day higher as implied volatility selling returned.

The fundamentals and now the technicals seems to support a return to 3,900 in the S&P 500 if not lower in 2024 may be in the cards. sp500

1/4/24 #Stocks – #Macro – $SPX,  #Rates Mike’s Reading The Markets Macro Subscription Service on Seeking Alpha Some Recent Titles: RTM: Big Job Report On Deck RTM: Next Live Session … Continue reading Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold, The Jobs Report Needs To Be Just Right →

There was nothing to lift stocks into the bell today, and it showed.

Stocks were getting pounded all day, and it took a $7.3 billion buy imbalance to save the day.

The bears may pounce on Goldilocks this week if the economic data doesn’t come in just right.

December 29 has turned into a mini monthly OPEX.

Stocks have been doing nothing, so I thought it was time to do something different.

Stocks were grinding all day, while the VIX was melting.

Stocks rebounded on December 21, 2023 but only to the 61.8% retracement level.

Stocks finished the day lower in an abrupt mid-day turn.

The circle of the market is never complete, and when it gets to one extreme is when it is likely to shift back to the other.

The last time this happened was in 2018 and the fall of 2020.

Stocks have rallied and reached extremely stretched valuations despite earnings estimates falling.

Stocks had a flattish day ahead of the big December Option Expiration

Either the Fed knows something or they just aren’t good at playing poker.

The stocks reached overbought as Credit spreads reached oversold levels one day ahead of the December FOMC meeting.

MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, AND GOOGL. Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be … Continue reading November CPI Report: Will It Make or Break the Stock Market Rally? →