Home » week ahead

Category: week ahead

salesforce adobe acadia

Examining Acadia, Adobe, and SalesForce – A Look At The Week To Come


Examining Acadia, Adobe, and SalesForce – A Look At The Week To Come

Inflation watch is not over just yet, this week the consumer price index (CPI) will come Tuesday. According to Bloomberg, estimates are calling for a rise of 2.2 percent year-over-year, while ex-food and energy a gain of 1.9 percent y/y. Then on Wednesday morning, we get the Producer Price Index, and estimates are calling for a month over month gain of 0.2 percent. If the results come in as expected my guess is that market will be pleased, these estimates are not a sign of an overheating economy or inflation.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Join our 613 Daily Subscribers And Get This FREE Commentary In Your E-Mail! 

 

Mott Capital Management, Michael Kramer

Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets

An In-depth Global Macro Premium Stock Market Commentary

In Video Format- See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Premium Subscription Based Membership

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

Let Michael help you! Have questions? Let Michael help you find the answer. Sign-up and get two weeks free: Watch the latest video: Market Surges Breakouts All Over

This week will also mark quadruple witching expiration, which means Friday could be an exciting day with a high level of volatility, just keep that in mind.

The Wall Street Journal reported late on Friday that now Intel may look to acquire Broadcom, in a case of the hunter becoming the hunted. It is incredible the that drama keeps getting more and more entangled. I have no idea where it goes from here, but perhaps with Intel in pursuit to acquire Broadcom trying to block Broadcom’s acquisition of Qualcomm, maybe Broadcom backs off. There are plenty of other chip companies around that Broadcom could fit into its portfolio. But the news is likely to give investors even more reason to keep aggressively buying the chip stocks.


Adobe

Adobe has been a fantastic stock over the years, with the stock up 185 percent over the past three years! The chart is incredible, and it seems to have broken out yet again and looks to be entering a “Netflix” ramp-up on the charts.

adobe

Earnings in 2018 are expected to grow at 45.7 percent to $6.28 per shares, while revenue is forecast to rise by 20 percent to $8.77 billion in 2018. But now, analyst views are pointing to earnings growth of about 13 percent in 2019 to $7.10 and 15 percent growth in 2020 to $8.20. Is this a Nvidia type of story where analysts are underestimating growth, for the company only to come out and top estimates? It may not be the case with Adobe because last quarter they just surprised the street on earnings by 9 percent, and 2.7 percent on revenue, nowhere near a Nvidia type of beat.

ADBE Price Target Chart

ADBE Price Target data by YCharts

Of the 33 analysts that cover the stock, 82 percent have a buy or outperform rating, while the average price target on the stock is at roughly $218. Are analysts price target adjustments on the way? Potentially. The stock is not cheap at 31 times one-year forward earnings estimates, and 10.5 times one-year forward sales. Tough call….

Advertisements

SalesForce

SalesForce is another stock that looks to have broken out, but again not all that different to Adobe.  Earnings are forecast to climb by nearly 52 percent in 2018 to $2.05, while revenue is expected to grow by almost 21 percent to $12.67 billion. But the earnings growth slows to the mid-20 percent range, which is still very fast, but it comes with a high price tag, at 50 times one-year forward earnings.

saleforce

The stock is trading well above its historical trading channel, and while 91 percent of the 45 analysts covering the stock have a buy or outperforming rating on the stock, their average price target is only $135.88, only 6 percent from the current price.

CRM Price Target Chart

CRM Price Target data by YCharts


Acadia

Acadia has performed horribly since results came out, and to be honest, there was nothing terrible enough to warrant shares being down by 21 percent since. I find it interesting that analysts have raised their revenue estimates for the year 2020 to $838 million! Meanwhile, the street is looking for revenue of $263 million in 2018, and $443 million in 2019. In fact, Wall Street is modeling for the company to earn $1.78 per share by the year 2020. Those are significant revenue and earnings growth numbers, the only questions I have is what are the estimates assuming? Is it just the market for Parkinson Disease Psychosis, or are they factoring in the success of future trials? I’m not sure, the only trial that we will get color on anytime soon is the Depression trial, so it is likely all based on PDP.

 

ACAD Chart

ACAD data by YCharts

The average price target on the stock is $50.11, yet shares trade at only $25.33 today, so there again, another example of a big disconnect by the street, and the stock. Who is right? We shall find out eventually.

That is gonna be it, for now, good luck!

Advertisements


Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets – An In-depth Global Macro Stock Market Commentary – In Video Format – See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

Recent Videos:

Market Surges Breakouts All Over

Roku Borrow Rate Surge, Biotech Fakeout?

Tech And Biotech Look Weak, Plus Subscriber Mailbag

What The Heck Happened

 

Free Articles Written By Mike:

Facebook Seen Rising 20% Defying Skeptics

Roku Shares Could Fall 50% Further

Why Micron’s Stock Bulls May Be Wrong

Why Bank Stocks Are Ready for a Short-Term Pullback

3 Under The Radar Stocks That Could Soar 30%

Why Home Depot May Plunge 20% Off Its Highs

Why Biotech Stocks Face Steep Declines Ahead

Netflix Stock Is Poised For An 11% Plunge

Why Salesforce’s Record Stock Gains May Not Last

4 Red Flags For Technology Stocks

Biotech Stock Nektar May Be Ripe For A Sharp Pullback

Macy’s May Fall 18% as Option Traders Turn Bears

Micron May Rise 12% As Analysts Grow More Bullish

Why Amazon’s Stock May Continue To Outperform Alibaba’s

AMD May Fall 17% as Bearish Option Volume Soars

Join our 613 Daily Subscribers And Get This Commentary In Your E-Mail! Subscribe

-OR-

[vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”]

Photo credit via Flickr

Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own shares of ACAD

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #intel #broadcom #qualcomm #acadia #salesforce #adobe

Advertisements
job report, microsoft, qualcomm vote, roku, micron

Micron, Microsoft, Qualcomm Vote, Job Report – The Week Of March 5th


Micron, Microsoft, Qualcomm Vote, Job Report – The Week Of March 5th

This coming week should be exciting, with ADP on Wednesday and BLS Job report on Friday morning. Has it been a month already? It feels like the other day the market was freaking out over “the hot wage” reading. Mind you the reading was a 2.9 percent rise in wages for January. It was 2.83 percent September, but nobody cared about the wage number back then.

Mott Capital Management, Michael Kramer

Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets

An In-depth Global Macro Premium Stock Market Commentary

In Video Format- See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Premium Subscription Based Membership

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

Let Michael help you! Have questions? Let Michael help you find the answer. Sign-up and get two weeks free: Watch the latest video: What The Heck Happened  

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Join our 613 Daily Subscribers And Get This FREE Commentary In Your E-Mail! 

 

It is sad that wages grew at 2.9 percent in January and that was the highest reading since May of 2009.


What Happened To Wage Growth

This next chart will demonstrate how bad it has been now for years. Can you believe there was a time when hourly wages were rising at 9 percent a year? Look at that, true we had inflation issues in the 1970’s. But look at the growth in wages in the 1990’s. Now, look at today.


Shifting Workforce

The next chart shows us what has been happening to our workforce through the years. In 1970 Manufacturing jobs were the most prominent part of the labor force, with roughly 18 million workers, now it is about 12 million. Meanwhile, leisure and hospitality jobs have risen from approximately 6 million to nearly 16 million today. Retail trade in 1970 7.4 million, today 15.8 million.

Advertisements

Shifting Wages

The jobs that pay the highest hourly wages Construction, Professional and Business services, while Retail and Hospitality pay the lowest. Durable goods and manufacturing are the third and fourth highest. Over the years, the economy has shifted from higher paying jobs, into lower paying jobs. It seems pretty clear, as to what has happened. 

 

Stocks

Obviously, this coming week will be critical to hear what the latest developments on the tariff situation and we should get more clarity this following week. The news around the tariff likely takes center stage, until Friday, when the only that might matter is Job report.

But we need to see the stock market continue where it left off on Friday. We are going to want to see a strong opening on Monday, and a solid follow through during the day.

Advertisements

VIX

The vix is another important to gauge; we need to watch the vix spot vs. the future contracts. The chart below shows its nicely. Notice starting from the bottom with the purple line, the VIX spot is the cheapest, followed by the orange line (APRIL), Red (MAY), Green (JUNE), Purple (July), make sense? But notice how the market goes into backwardation at the start of February and where June become the cheapest, followed by July, May, April and then the Spot. Just keep an eye on this, it could be something to watch should the stock market start going off the rails. It tells us what the market is thinking regarding the future of volatility

^VIX Chart

^VIX data by YCharts


Micron

Micron could be on the verge of a massive breakout should be it able to rise above $50, and could see its shares rise to levels not seen in nearly two decades, back to $58.

micron

Roku

Roku appears to be on the verge of a major breakdown, that could send shares back into upper 20’s.

roku

Microsoft

Microsoft, found support at the previous downtrend, but will it hold? It also failed at resistance at $93.25, Microsoft will be an important one to watch? Does it break out or break down?

microsoft


Broadcom

It is a big week for Broadcom, with Qualcomm’s shareholder vote on Tuesday. Will Broadcom get its nominees on to Qualcomm’s board?

broadcom

The stock held support at $241, now where does it go? It will likely depend on the outcome of the Qualcomm board vote this pending week. Right now the options market is not looking for a deal to get between the two companies. The long straddle options strategy is looking for a rise or fall of only 11.7 percent, putting the stocks in a trading range of $57.5 to $72.5 by expiration on April 20.  The open interest for the $75 calls is relatively small at approximately 40,500 contracts, a notional value of only $2.8 million. Does Broadcom succeed at buying Qualcomm? Probably not.

qualcomm broadcom

 

That is it. Good Luck this week.

 

Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets – An In-depth Global Macro Stock Market Commentary – In Video Format – See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

Recent Videos:

What The Heck Happened

Breaking Down Acadia’s Results, Exploring Trends In Chips Stocks

Stocks In Rally Mode, More To Come

Crazy Market Reaction Following Fed Minutes, Plus Subscriber Mail Bag

Subscriber Mailbag, Plus Market Rundown

Free Articles Written By Mike:

McDonald’s Stock Nears Bear Market Levels

4 Bargain Chip Stocks

3 Biotech Stocks That May Be On The Verge Of Sharp Declines

Roku Short Sellers Are Piling In Even As Stock Falls

Nvidia’s Stock May Be A Bargain As Earnings Forecasts Explode

6 Bargain Stocks Hidden in Market’s Rebound

Gilead’s Stock Rebound May Stall As Analysts Cut Forecasts

Netflix Seen Rising 40% On International Growth

Why Chip Stocks Will Keep Rising

Exact Sciences’ Nightmare May Get Worse for Investors

Why Tesla’s Stock Can Soar to New Highs

Join our 613 Daily Subscribers And Get This Commentary In Your E-Mail! Subscribe

-OR-

[vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”]

Photo credit via Flickr

 

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #micron #microsoft #roku #qualcomm #broadcom #jobs 

stock market s&p 500 rise 2018

Why Earnings Will Fuel The Stock Market’s Rise In 2018

Why Earnings Will Fuel The Stock Market’s Rise In 2018

The week of February 20 may help to give investors some clarity on the general direction of the stock market. But the good news is that earnings growth continues to build, and that should continue to be the focus for investors. Not rising interest, not inflation, just stay focused on earnings growth.

Mott Capital Management, Michael Kramer

Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets

An In-depth Global Macro Premium Stock Market Commentary

In Video Format- See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Premium Subscription Based Membership

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Join our 613 Daily Subscribers And Get This FREE Commentary In Your E-Mail! 

 

Earnings Growth

S&P Dow Jones Indices is estimating operating earnings to grow by a stunning 24.93 percent in 2018 to $156.25. It is also projecting earnings to increase by another 10 percent in 2019 to $172.10 per share.

Earnings expectation have risen since the end of 2017 as well, and that is a positive. Since December 31, 2018, estimates for 2018 have climbed by nearly 7 percent, from $145.80.

Advertisements

Historically Cheap

With the S&P 500 trading 2,732 as of February 16, it was valued at 15.8 times 2019 operating earnings! Using data from S&P Dow Jones Indices, starting in 1988 through the end of 2017, the average operating P/E multiple has been 18.8, with a standard deviation of 4.1, making the range roughly 14.7 to 22.9. At our current earnings multiple, the S&P 500 is trading on the cheaper side of history, and likely has room to continue to rise. Should the S&P 500 just merely reflect the historical average of 18.8 times 2018 operating earnings of 156.25 by year-end, it would be trading at roughly 2,941. I still happen to think the S&P 500 can eclipse 3,000 in 2018.

Advertisements

Sectors Cheap As Well

Even by sector standards, stocks are cheap, according to S&P, the information technology earnings send rising by 23 percent in 2018 to $62.57, while the group is trading at 18.7 times 2018 estimates. Healthcare is expected to grow by 24 percent in 2018 to $60.88 and trades at only 16 times 2018 estimates. As the chart below the S&P and some of its biggest sectors, technology, healthcare, and discretionary stocks are trading at historically cheap valuations, over the past decade.

S&P 500 valuation
S&P Dow Jones Indices

Paying A Multiple

2018 is all about earnings and growth and should earnings continue to stay strong then the multiple investors are willing to assign to those earnings should increase as well.

The question becomes can earnings estimates continue to rise, or shall those expectations begin to come down as the year goes on?

For now, it is hard to argue the stock market is expensive, especially when we looking at the possibility of very strong earnings growth over the next 24 months.

That is it for today. Good Luck

Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets – An In-depth Global Macro Stock Market Commentary – In Video Format – See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

Recent Videos:

Why Amazon Has Peaked And Tesla Could Be Cheap

Inflation Rising, Rates Rising, Stocks Do Not Care!

Stock Price Continue To Rebound, More To Come?

Stock Market Bouncing Back

A Line Drawn In The Sand?

Searching For The Market Bottom

We May Have Just Hit Bottom

Free Articles Written By Mike:

Micron’s Breakout Seen Boosting Stock By 15%

Nvidia’s Soaring Stock Is Leaving S&P 500 In The Dust

Intel Shares May Rebound 12% By June

GE’s Battered Stock May Fall Another 30%

Roku Options Traders Bet Stock Will Rise 15%

Why Amazon’s Record Stock Gains Are Over

Netflix Options Traders See 13% Stock Rally

3 Biotech Stocks Facing Steep Declines Ahead

Broadcom’s Bid For Qualcomm Will Fail, Traders Indicate

Tesla Analysts See Soaring Sales Amid Investor Skepticism

Cisco Traders See Stock Rebound Despite Weak Growth

4 Chipmakers Rising During the Stock Market Sell-Off

Why Alphabet’s Recent Declines Creates Opportunity

Why Netflix May Fall 10%, Setting Up Longer-Term Rise

Nvidia’s Short-Term Volatility Could Bring Long-Term Gains

Join our 613 Daily Subscribers And Get This Commentary In Your E-Mail! Subscribe

-OR-

[vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”]

Photo Credit Via Flickr

Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own shares of NFLX and TSLA

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #stock #market #3000 #rise #earnings

 

stock market

3 Keys To The Stock Market For The Week Of February 12

Advertisements

3 Keys To The Stock Market For The Week Of February 12

The week of February 12 will continue to volatile, whether the stock market is going up or going down. The tug of war we saw on Friday, between positive and negative territory will likely continue especially on Monday. But as we wrote yesterday, signs are emerging that a bottom is in the process of being put and place, and there will be some keys to this market that could suggest the worst is over.

Mott Capital Management, Michael Kramer

Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets

An In-depth Global Macro Premium Stock Market Commentary

In Video Format- See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Premium Subscription Based Membership

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

A Line Drawn In The Sand?

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Join our 613 Daily Subscribers And Get This FREE Commentary In Your E-Mail! 

 

Vol

Volatility will obviously be the key to the market, and the VIX and many of the ETF products will be the critical focus. The chart shows how dangerous the inverse VIX ETF products are, below is the SVXY, which has been destroyed.  But more important than prices, we want to see the volume continue to fall back to normal levels.

Here in lies the problem too, and I am shocked when I see products where you can buy volatility on individual stocks, like the VXAZN, and VXAPL, basically betting that vol will rise on Amazon or Apple, these are nothing more than casino like products, betting on volatility rising. 

Advertisements

Inflation and Yield Watch

The Consumer Price Index reading is coming out this week, and the street is looking for m/m reading of 0.3 percent, and a y/y rise of 2 percent.  We can see that CPI has traced OIL pretty consistently over the past.

CPI

But unfortunately, it also likely means that the inflation reading is likely to come in ahead of expectations. But I will guess that unless it comes in some crazy reading of above 3 percent, I think the market will be calmed, that inflation is not running away, which I don’t think it will do.

For now, over the short-term, if I had to guess, yields are likely done rising for a bit and a retracement back towards 2.6 percent seems in order.

Stock Watch

Watch the leadership in the stock market from stocks like Apple, Alphabet, and Microsoft. These are the leaders in the market, and when times get rocky one wants to see the leaders lead.

Micron could also be a big one to watch during the week, as the company recently pre-released revenue guidance which was higher than expectations. micron

But the market cared not, and if a bounce or even a bounce is attempted, it should be found in companies that continue to beat and raise expectations.

Facebook also has seen its shares fall sharply, and have fallen to levels not seen since the early fall, and for now, have found a meaningful bounce.

The technology ETF (XLK) could also be critical, as that ETF was grossly overbought, and has come down hard. Strength and outperformance would is a big positive.

technology

Good Luck

Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets – An In-depth Global Macro Stock Market Commentary – In Video Format – See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

Recent Videos:

A Line Drawn In The Sand?

Searching For The Market Bottom

We May Have Just Hit Bottom

Machines Gone Wild

Don’t Freak Out About Friday’s Sell-Off

How The “Street” Got Apple So Wrong

Free Articles Written By Mike:

Why Bitcoin May See A 30% Dead Cat Bounce

Visa Options Bulls See Stock Rising 10% By June

Why Under Armour Faces Steeper Declines

Why Microsoft Can Rebound By 10%

Why Bank Of America And Morgan Stanley Can Rebound By 25 Percent

Nvidia Options Traders Bet Big On Chipmaker As Stock Drops

Bitcoin Investors Face More Pain On Likely 35% Plunge

Why Apple’s Supercycle Has Only Begun

Qualcomm’s Time To Decide Its Fate Has Come

Why Visa’s Stock Is Running on Fumes

How Tesla Mauled The Bears

Chipmaker Broadcom Doesn’t Need Apple To Rebound

Apple May Lose Crown As World’s Most Valuable Company

Chipmaker Skyworks Seen Rising Despite Apple Skepticism

Why Boeing’s Stock Will Keep Flying High

Join our 613 Daily Subscribers And Get This Commentary In Your E-Mail! Subscribe

-OR-

[vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”]

Photo Credit Via Flickr

Michael Kramer and clients of Mott Capital own shares of GOOGL

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #apple #technology #alphabet #micron #facebook #amazon #microsoft #vix #yields #volatilty

 

 

 

 

stocks yield yields

3 Stocks To Watch, And Why The Rising Yield Story Is Overblown

Advertisements

3 Stocks To Watch, And Why The Rising Yield Story Is Overblown

 

The focus this week will undoubtedly be on yields, with the 10-year Treasury rates climbing to over 2.8 percent this past week. Since the market is so obsessed with yields, let’s talk about yields and be smart about it. Plus we cover 3 stocks to watch and the S&P 500.

us 10-year treasury yield minus German 10-year yields

Mott Capital Management, Michael Kramer

Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets

An In-depth Global Macro Premium Stock Market Commentary

In Video Format- See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Premium Subscription Based Membership

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

Don’t Freak Out About Friday’s Sell-Off

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Join our 613 Daily Subscribers And Get This FREE Commentary In Your E-Mail! 

 

Spreads

The spread between the US 10-year and the German 10-year bonds stand at about 2.10 percent, and we should care about these global yields. How long will it take before European bond buyers or Japanese bond buyer come flocking to our debt? Not long.

Historically the spread between the two is at levels not seen in a very long time. The chart below shows one would need to go back to the late 1980’s to get the current spread.

yield interest rates

The spread between US 10-year and Japanese JGB 10-years is standing at nearly 2.75 percent.

jgb 10-year yields

One would have to go back to 2006 to see the same spread between the US bonds and JGB’s.

jgp yield and interest rates

In Need Of Yield

We live in a global market and a world thirsty for yield, investors from around the world may soon be soaking up all the liquidity.

But even so, with the yields on the short-end of the curve induced by Fed pushing rates higher, the long-end of the curve was very stubborn in not adjusting higher. It would seem the long-end was unwilling to admit that the US economy was growing and that inflation was starting to creep back into the system. Now the long-end must rise, or risk inversion.

libor

But again, inflation may be creeping in, but it is no-where near runaway. Trimmed Mean PCE is tracking at only 1.7 percent, while the consumer price index is tracking at just over 2 percent.

inflation

Inflation Rising

But Oil has been steadily rising, and other commodities have been increasing as well, and therefore there is a genuine risk of inflation continuing to grow into the future, which the market is now beginning to factor in.

Will yields continue to rise, yes. But again, spreads in the global bond market are very wide now versus the US Treasuries, and that should bring buyers into our bond markets. Additionally, inflation is being to heat-up, but it at the very early stages, and the risk of overheating at this point seems a distance away.

S&P 500

Stocks are likely to remain volatile as investors try to feel there way through everything. Again, as I noted the other day, I see downside right now to around 2,740 at the moment.

S&P 500

Amazon

I think Amazon has further to fall, the stock is still at overbought levels, with an RSI above 70. My concern is the green uptrend, and a break below $1,400 likely takes the stock to around $1300, with a risk to $1250.

amazon

Look there is no doubting the earnings results and revenue growth. But the stock is up nearly 71 percent over the last 52-weeks and almost 23 percent in 2018. Watch $1,400.

[amazon_link asins=’B001KR0G2Y’ template=’ProductCarousel’ store=’us-blob’ marketplace=’US’ link_id=’2501cb18-092e-11e8-aa03-f12caff5a2f4′]

Tesla

It will be another busy earnings week with Tesla likely be the big story. Everyone will be eagerly listening to what the company says about the Model 3, and of course the cash position.

Options are pricing in about a 9 percent rise or fall after Tesla reports results, based on the long straddle options strategy set to expire on February 16, using $342.50 strike price.

Analysts are looking for the company to report revenue for the fourth-quarter rose nearly 43 percent vs. last year to $3.261 billion, while losing almost $3.11 per shares.

But for Tesla, it will be about cash flow, capital expenditures, and the cash position. Over this past week, Tesla raised nearly $550 million in an asset back securities deal. 

The conference call or the press release will hopefully give investors an idea where the company is with ramping up production for the Model-3, and whether they remain on target for 2,500 cars per week by the end of the first quarter.

The chart suggests some mild support around $335 for now, but honestly, I’m not sure technicals matter going into these results.

tslA

Alkermes

Finally, I will be watching Alkermes, whose shares jumped by nearly 9 percent towards the end of Friday. There was news reported by Bloomberg that Nektar was considering a sale, and for some strange reason, the fly.com mentioned Alkermes was rising because Nektar announced it would sell itself. The report notes the two companies have a similar oncology drug. But both Alkermes drug and Nektar’s drug that are similar are only in Phase 1. So I don’t see the connection. Keep in mind Alkermes has data coming in its head-to-head trial for ALKS 8700, for MS, vs. Tecfiedera soon, which Biogen just signed a licensing deal with Alkermes for, and data for ALKS 3831, its drug for schizophrenia coming soon.

The upcoming data for Alkermes is the driver. Mind you Nektar finished Friday lower.

[amazon_link asins=’B001RTSGRM,B0027VSU9S’ template=’ProductGrid’ store=’us-blob’ marketplace=’US’ link_id=’ddac9aaa-07bd-11e8-b496-4d0ce69fcd2f’]

Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets – An In-depth Global Macro Stock Market Commentary – In Video Format – See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free Trial

Recent Videos:

Don’t Freak Out About Friday’s Sell-Off

How The “Street” Got Apple So Wrong

Qorvo Sheds Some Light On Apple

Did Broadcom Seal Apple’s Fate?

The Sky Is Falling. Relax It’s Not.

Getting Ready For S&P 500’s Pullback, Plus Subscriber Mailbag

Dollar Breaking Down, Biotech And Intel Breakout

Why Apple May Not Be Toast Afterall

Why It May Be Time To Get Bullish On Materials As Dollar Plunges

 

Free Articles Written By Mike:

Bitcoin Investors Face More Pain On Likely 35% Plunge

Why Apple’s Supercycle Has Only Begun

Qualcomm’s Time To Decide Its Fate Has Come

Why Visa’s Stock Is Running on Fumes

How Tesla Mauled The Bears

Chipmaker Broadcom Doesn’t Need Apple To Rebound

Apple May Lose Crown As World’s Most Valuable Company

Chipmaker Skyworks Seen Rising Despite Apple Skepticism

Why Boeing’s Stock Will Keep Flying High

Why Microsoft Is Ready For A 10% Fall

Join our 613 Daily Subscribers And Get This Commentary In Your E-Mail! Subscribe

-OR-

[vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”]

Photo Credit Via Flickr

Michael Kramer of Mott Capital own shares of TSLA and ALKS

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #alkermes #tesla #amazon #yields #stock #rates

Looking Ahead To Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook, and AMD Results

Advertisements

Looking Ahead To Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook, and AMD Results

Earnings take center stage this coming week, and there is no shortage of big companies reporting. In this commentary, we shall focus on AMD, Facebook, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon.

Mott Capital Management, Michael Kramer

Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets

An In-depth Global Macro Premium Stock Market Commentary

In Video Format- See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Premium Subscription Based Membership

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

AMD

AMD will report on Tuesday after the close, and analysts are looking for the company to say fourth-quarter revenue grew by almost 27 percent to $1.401 billion, while earnings were flat vs. last year at $0.05. Earningswhisper.com is looking for the company to beat by a penny, reporting $0.06.

The table below shows how AMD is reasonably consistent and can regularly beat revenue estimates.

amdThe long straddle options strategy is calling for a rise or fall of about 12 percent following AMD’s results. That is because to buy one put and one call set for expiration on February 2 cost about $1.45, using the $13 strike price. But the calls have nearly 8,500 contracts of open interest, vs. only 1,100 puts. Suggesting that more traders are betting on shares of AMD to rise following results.

amd earnings preview

AMD stock is sitting at a critical resistance level at $12.95, with a rise above it taking the shares to about $14.25, refilling nearly a four-month-old gap, created when the company last reported results in October. The relative strength index (RSI) is only around 65 and suggests that the stock is not overbought, and could continue to rise.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Join our 613 Daily Subscribers And Get This FREE Commentary In Your E-Mail! 

 

Facebook

The next big company to report will be Facebook on Wednesday after the close. Share recently came under pressure, after Mark Zuckerberg noted coming changes to the News Feed, but shares have recouped all of these losses in the past week.  Analysts are looking for revenue to have risen by about 43 percent to $12.55 billion, and earnings to have climbed by about 40 percent to $1.97. Earningswhisper.com is looking for Facebook to beat estimates and report $2.05.

Historically,  Facebook has beaten its earnings estimates, every quarter going back to fourth quarter of 2015.

fbearningsbeat

The options market is looking for only a 6 percent rise or fall after the company reports results. That is because the long straddle options strategy for the $190 strike price cost about $11.10 to buy one put and one call, and that means the stock could trade in a range of about $179 to $201, using the options set to expire on February 2. The open interest heavily favors the calls, with roughly 15,000 contracts compared to puts of only 1,800. It suggests more bets are being placed on shares rising.

The chart is also suggesting shares continue to rise. The stock has recently broken out, with shares rising above resistance around $180. The RSI is also reasonably low only around 60 and suggests shares could continue to increase as well. Additionally, the chart shows there is firm support for the stock just below $180.

fb earnings preview

Microsoft

Microsoft is also set to report on Wednesday after the close and expectations are for the company to report fiscal second-quarter revenue growth of nearly 10 percent to $28.41 billion, while earnings grew by about 3 percent to $0.86. Earningswhisper.com for the company to report earnings of $0.90.

The company has a history of beating earnings estimates in the past as well. microsoft earnings estimates

The $95 option set for expiration on February 2, are implying a move of about 5 percent, with the cost to buy one put and one call being $4.65. That puts the stock in a trading range of roughly $90.50 to $99.70. The number of open puts and calls is insignificant for this expiration date, which suggests the market is not looking for a much of surprise when Microsoft reports.

Microsoft’s chart suggests shares may be overbought at current levels, based on an RSI reading of about 80. Additionally, the RSI has been trending lower, versus the rising stock price, creating a divergent bearish indication. In fact, the RSI peaked back at the end of October, the last time Microsoft reported results, creating a significant gap in the chart.

The first level of support comes around $86. But should $86 fail, the next support region begins at $79, which also fills the gap.

microsoft

Apple

Apple is the headliner for the week, reporting results on Thursday after the close. It is anyone’s guess to how Apple will report results, and more importantly guide the forward quarter. To this point, there has been so much back and forth in the analyst community that it is nearly impossible to tell which side is right. The bear camp believes there is a risk to forward guidance, while the bull’s do not see the same level of concern.

 

While I do not have the same level of access to the supply chain as the analysts, it seems hard to believe the data can be so contrasting from the two sides. But we do know that in the middle of December Jabil and Broadcom issued strong results and substantial forward guidance, while semi-equipment companies ASML and Lam Research, have reported strong results more recently.

But again, the Apple suppliers stocks continue to act very poorly, while Verizon even noted an elongation to the upgrade cycle. 

Given how big Apple is in the handset market, it seems hard to believe that Apple will miss badly when it reports forward guidance. Also given Apple’s history of embarrassing those that bet against it, it is not something I would want to do.

Analysts are looking for earnings to have risen by about 14 percent in the fiscal first quarter to $3.82, while expectations are for revenue to have increased by 11 percent to $87 billion. But more importantly will be guidance, which is expected at $2.89, on revenue of $67.20 billion.

Meanwhile, as I wrote about for Investopedia this past week, there are plenty of bullish bets being placed in the options market.

Amazon

Amazon is also reporting on Thursday, and what will happen there is the big mystery. The street is looking for earnings of $1.83, and unless it is a colossal beat or big miss, profits do not matter, because everyone knows Amazon just plays with investors when it comes to the bottom line. Nobody embarrasses Wall Street like Amazon can.  The past two quarters are perfect examples.

amazon earnings estiamtes

But that revenue number does matter a great deal, and analysts are looking for that to have grown by astounding 37 percent to $59.85 billion. The stock is already up 20 percent in 2018, and the options market is implying a rise or fall of about 7 percent using the $1,400 strike price options set to expire on February 2, putting the stock in a range of roughly $1305 to $1495.

The huge run-up in the stock means expectations going into this print are massive, the only question that remains is if Amazon can pull off a Netflix like move, and crush even those expectations.

That is it for today back tomorrow with more for the week ahead.

 

Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets – An In-depth Global Macro Stock Market Commentary – In Video Format – See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free Trial

Recent Videos:

Dollar Breaking Down, Biotech And Intel Breakout

Why Apple May Not Be Toast Afterall

Why It May Be Time To Get Bullish On Materials As Dollar Plunges

What Everyone Seems To Get Wrong On Netflix

The Long Straddle, Plus Biotech Breakout

Subscriber Mail Bag

Euro’s Big Breakout

Inflation, Tesla Plus So Much More

Predicting The Euro’s Rise 


Free Articles Written By Mike:

Intel’s Massive Breakout Could Fuel Stock’s 25% Rise

Starbucks Stock Price Reflects Perception, Not Reality

Why AMD’s Soaring Stock May See a Sharp Pullback

Why Netflix Is Still Cheap Despite 30% Gain In Three Weeks

Why Micron’s 2018 Stock Gains Won’t Last

Apple’s Stock Outlook Overwhelmingly Bullish, Options Indicate

How Netflix Will Spark The Next Media M&A Wave

Biotech M&A Spree Could Push Sector to New Record Highs

Why Apple’s Suppliers Are Plunging As Mega Tech Thrives

Why Chipmaker Lam Research Is Poised For a Rebound

How a Juno Takeover Could Boost Celgene

Why Ford Could Rise By Nearly 30%

Apple Poised to Gain 14%, Defying Skeptics

Exxon Mobil May Rise 20% on the Back of Surging Oil

We offer daily market commentaries sent directly to your inbox or follow us on Twitter.

Join our 613 Daily Subscribers And Get This Commentary In Your E-Mail! Subscribe

-OR-

[vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”]

Photo Credit Via Flickr

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2017 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #earnings #previews #apple #amazon #amd #facebook #microsoft

facebook is tesla the next apple

Facebook’s Big Fall, Plus Is Tesla The Next Apple? – The Week Ahead

Advertisements

Facebook’s Big Fall, Plus Is Tesla The Next Apple? – The Week Ahead

Earnings will start trickling out this week with companies like Goldman Sachs ($GS), IBM ($IBM) and Procter& Gamble ($PG), but the full slate of earnings don’t start until the week of January 22. So we should just see a continuation of this past week. But one will need to pay close attention to Facebook, Tesla, the Biotech’s, Financials, and Micron.

[vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”]  

Facebook

The reaction by the stock market to Facebook’s news on Friday seems somewhat dumb because unless I’m missing something, Facebook said the same in 2016. Look at this post I dug up from June 29, 2016, about building a better news feed and putting friends and family first. So either I’m missing something, or the market is missing something.  Has your Facebook news feed experience been better since 2016? I’d say I use Facebook even less today then I did then. Every other post in my news feed seems like an ad of some kind, and honestly, I find myself using it less and less, along with LinkedIn.  So I think it is smart for Facebook to “make this move,” if anything changes. It could perhaps just be a PR move as well, to get in front of the backlash from all the “fake news” election crap.

Let’s see what happens when Facebook reports results on January 31. I’ll tell you; the stock held support exceptionally well on Friday. I would not be surprised to see the stock back to $188 in a matter of days.

Join our 613 Daily Subscribers And Get This Commentary In Your E-Mail! Subscribe

 

Tesla and Apple

Electrek is reporting that the Tesla Model 3 is now starting to hit showrooms, and it is drawing large crowds. The article notes a similarity to the crowds Apple would bring on iPhone launch days. If you are a Tesla shareholder, like I am, you could only dream of the Model 3 having half the success of the iPhone.

Again, it goes to my post many months ago, talking and comparing Tesla and the Model 3, to that of Apple and iPhone. The Model 3, brings the Tesla brand to the ordinary person for the most part, and not just the well to do. It introduces a driver to the Tesla ecosystem, with a network of cars communicating with one another, and artificial intelligence gathering real-time driving miles, helping to make autonomous driving safer. It could be similar to the iPhone and iOS ecosystem, where a person stores photos, or music in the iCloud or iTunes, sends iMessages, and Facetime. When someone buys an iPhone they buy an experience; when someone buys a Model 3, it may come to experience as well.

Or will it come down to brand, just like when you go to get a new phone vs. getting the new iPhone. Will you be getting a new car or the new Tesla? Only through history shall we know the success or failure that is Tesla.

Biotech

Things I’m watching for the week of January 22.

I’m waiting for a biotech breakout on the $IBB at $114 and watching the big Biotech’s Celgene, Biogen, Gilead, and Amgen. Gilead ($GILD) has shown signs of life, and if it cracks $81, I think it will end up rising to around $92.

Gilead

Celgene

Celgene could see a breakout as well, should it rise above $109, the next stop is likely around $119.

celg

Financials

The $XLF finished the week right at resistance around $29, a level it hasn’t seen in nearly a decade. A rise above $29 sends it higher on towards $31.

banks
Goldman

With Goldman set to report this week, the stock looks ready to rip higher, after bouncing off support around $250. Additionally, the current setup looks like a bullish pennant formation in the chart as well; another sign shares could be set to rise.

Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley looks like it could be about to run higher as well. A rise above $56, sends this stock on its way to about $70.

morgan stanley

Micron

Finally, I’m watching Micron this week. The pattern in the chart makes me feel very uneasy.

micron

It just reminds me too much of the chart below.

Let’s hope I’m wrong.

nasdaq

Sorry, but some things you just never forget!

Good Luck this week.

Sign-up for our premium content on Seeking Alpha Market Place – “Reading The Markets”  and a get Two Week Free Trial Period

Premium Content: Benefits include the ability to reach out to Mike with questions through a chat room, direct message, or comments. 

Now JUST $25 Per Month Or $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2-Week Trial Now!

Inflation, Tesla Plus So Much More

Predicting The Euro’s Rise

An Intelligent Way Of Looking At Tesla’s Results

3 Biotech Names To Start The Year

Disney- The Market Finally Get’s It

 


Free Articles Written By Mike:

Apple Poised to Gain 14%, Defying Skeptics

Gold May Jump Over 20% As Investors Eye Inflation

Roku’s Decline May Be Far From Over As Volatility Surges

Why Under Armour’s Plunge Has Only Begun

Why The FAANGs’ Big Gains May Be Far From Over

How Celgene’s Big Acquisition Could Fire Up Its Stock

Why the Bears Won’t Win at Tesla

Nvidia’s Stock Faces Its Moment of Truth

Why AMD May Rise 17% Higher On Intel’s Woes

Why These 3 Oil Stocks Will Outperform

Why NXP Shareholders Will Prosper Without a Qualcomm Deal

Netflix Breakout Seen Boosting Stock By 17%

We offer daily market commentaries sent directly to your inbox or follow us on Twitter.

Join our 613 Daily Subscribers And Get This Commentary In Your E-Mail! Subscribe

-OR-

[vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”]

Photo Credit Via Flickr

Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own shares of CELG and TSLA

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2017 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #facebook #tesla #apple #biotech #financials #goldmand #morgan #gilead #celgene

A Look At the Week Ahead

A Monster Look At The Week Ahead In Stocks For January 8

A Monster Look At The Week Ahead In Stocks

Advertisements

The week of January 8, could be just as exciting as last week, and the focus will continue on some of the biggest winners from last week. In this commentary, we look at the week ahead in stocks and explore the S&P 500, Pfizer, Apple, Blackberry, the “FANG’s” and AMD.

Enjoy!

S&P 500

If last week was a sign for 2018, then we are off to very a good start. The S&P 500 broke out in a significant way to start 2018. I think that means the index might be able to rally to about 2,875 or so by March. It comes down first to the technical chart, but also earnings growth will continue to accelerate in 2018, and into 2019, based on current analysts estimates, helping to give the market a perfect backdrop for 2018.

The chart below shows a clear trend line that has now been in place for the S&P 500 since February of 2016 and tested at Brexit. I have called this in the past the February16/Brexit trend line, and for the most part, we can call it the “mean” for the market. Since 2016, the market has typically deviated by about 100 to 150 points from the mean both above and below. There were two such occasions in 2017, in March when the S&P 500 peaked about 100 points higher than then mean, and when it bottomed in August about 120 points below the mean.  The chart shows the S&P 500 has now broken above the mean, which implies it could be heading towards a peak, which could occur by sometime in March, at about 2,875, 100 points higher from the mean, or trend line, at that time.

Join our 613 Daily Subscribers And Get This Commentary In Your E-Mail! Subscribe

[vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”]

S&p 500 A look ahead at the week in stocks

It is undoubtedly a gutsy call on my part, but one that I’m not afraid to make, and have done plenty of times before. I can let my track record speak for so itself when it comes to this stuff. Feel free to explore the website and decide for yourself.

From a fundamental standpoint, the equity market is relatively cheap. At the end of first quarter in 2017, the S&P 500 was trading around 2,360, while 2018 operating earnings are estimated at $146.48, according to Dow Jones S&P Indices, placing the S&P 500 operating earnings multiple at about 16. Estimates are now calling for 2019 operating earnings of $160.03, putting the S&P 500 at only 17 times 2019 forward operating estimates, just a bit more expensive than the start of 2017.

S&P 500 Operating Earnings Per Share Forward Estimate Chart

S&P 500 Operating Earnings Per Share Forward Estimate data by YCharts

Can 2018 be as good as 2017 for the equity market? It could be better because looking at these estimates we do not know how much of Tax reform has been priced. We will find out after guidance starts coming about two weeks times.

Pfizer

Pfizer ($PFE) made some interest, yet random news early Sunday morning, when it said, it would give up on discovering new drugs for Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s disease. Could Pfizer be looking to make a deal with a smaller company? Or are they just completely out? Interesting ahead of the JP Morgan healthcare conference, when they present on Monday morning at 8:30 AM PST

Celgene

Updated 4 PM – According to the Wall Street Journal, Celgene is in talks to buy Impact Biomedicines, a privately held company, for $7 billion. Impact’s lead drug is fedratinib, for the treatment of myelofibrosis and polycythemia vera. The deal according to the Journal in three stages, with an upfront payment of $1 billion and the final two payment after approvals from the FDA, and commercialization.

The move could be viewed by as a positive, as the market has become concerned over Celgene’s dependence on Revlimid. This could help diversify the companies pipeline, and calm the market.

Apple

Apple ($AAPL) recovered most of its losses from the week earlier when rumors swirled about a massive decline in iPhone X orders. Again, we shall see when Apple reports fiscal first-quarter 2018 results on February 1. It just means Apple is prone to these rumors for the next couple of weeks. In a premium on-demand video I went through a couple of reasons why I don’t think Apple will see this significant iPhone X shipment downgrade. You can watch the video below for just $1.99.

Apple iPhone Shipment Maybe Better Than Feared from Michael Kramer on Vimeo.


On-Demand Content

Apple iPhone Shipment Maybe Better Than Feared

Why Biotech May Outperform In 2018 

Thinking About 2018


Blackberry

In our Friday commentary, we touched on Blackberry ($BB) for the first time, and I thought I was worth mention this a very different company that many of us remember. It is no longer a handset maker like we all remember. It has become more of a software company, one focused on cybersecurity for the most part. The investor presentation is very well put together, and speak a lot about the new direction of the company, worth looking at. I have looked at the business here and there, and the game seems early enough that there is likely no rush to get into the name but surely worth following.

FANG’s

How about the FANG’s to start 2018? They have been crushing it, with Netflix ($NFLX) up by nearly 10 percent just in the four days of the year, while Amazon ($AMZN), Alphabet ($GOOGL), and Facebook ($FB) are all up just over 5 percent. We had noted in our ten prediction’s list for 2018 the FANG’s would lead the market higher in 2018, and so far they have not disappointed. It certainly helps that the FANG’s have broken out a big way to start the year, and will undoubtedly be a key to the market in 2018.

FB Chart

FB data by YCharts

Facebook

Facebook shares broke out crossing above $184.25. Additionally, the relative strength index (RSI) has also reversed and broken out of a   as well.  A rising RSI,  along with an increasing stock price are both bullish indicators

facebook

Netflix

Netflix shares have also broken out as well, with the stock crossing over $204.50 and managed to hit a new all-time as well. But the stock is likely getting a bit extended, as it is now trading outside of its long-term channel, and the RSI is approaching overbought levels. We saw the same thing happen into the third quarter results, where the stock ran up big into the print, and then stagnated afterward. Netflix is one of the first companies to report results, and are set to report Monday, January 22, after the close.

nflx

Amazon

Amazon broke out in a big way to start 2018 as well, the chart below shows it all.

amzn

Google – I Meant Alphabet

Alphabet as well.

googl

 


Sign-up for our premium content on Seeking Alpha Market Place – “Reading The Markets”  and a get Two Week Free Trial Period

Premium Content: Benefits include the ability to reach out to Mike with questions through a chat room, direct message, or comments. 

We will respond to questions in short order and will respond to questions with full-post or video segment, just not one or two-word answers. 

Now JUST $25 Per Month

An Intelligent Way Of Looking At Tesla’s Results

3 Biotech Names To Start The Year

Disney- The Market Finally Get’s It

Why The FANG’s Could Lead In 2018

Tech Wreck V12.4.17 – More Room Too Fall

Machines Break Loose

Why The S&P500 Could Melt-Up Into Year End

S&P 500 Breakout- 2700?


AMD

Finally, Advanced Micro Devices ($AMD) was a huge winner last week, with the stock jumping by an astonishing 15.5 percent! The big move came on the news of a flaw in the design of Intel ($INTC) chips. Hype or hope is the real question. After a huge 2016, 2017 was a major disappointment in 2017, will 2018 be better? When we look at this weekly chart of AMD going back to 2006, we can see AMD has a long way to go to get back its old glory days, but we can see volume in AMD has increased dramatically since 2016. But the up-trend in 2016 has also been clearly broken with RSI that has trended lower as well.

Watch the trend in the RSI, should we see a divergence, meaning a rising RSI, with a falling stock price could signal a bottom is getting put in to place. Watch the RSI for a breakout.

amd

Good luck next week!

Free Articles Written By Mike:

Nvidia’s Stock Faces Its Moment of Truth

Why AMD May Rise 17% Higher On Intel’s Woes

Why These 3 Oil Stocks Will Outperform

Why NXP Shareholders Will Prosper Without a Qualcomm Deal

Netflix Breakout Seen Boosting Stock By 17%

We offer daily market commentaries sent directly to your inbox or follow us on Twitter.

Join our 613 Daily Subscribers And Get This Commentary In Your E-Mail! Subscribe

-OR-

[vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”]

Photo Credit Via Flickr

Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own shares of NFLX, GOOGL, CELG

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2017 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #fang #fb #amazon #facebook #alphabet #apple #blackberry #amd #pfizer #celgene #impact

 

 

chipmakers tesla biotech vix

The Week Ahead: Watching – The VIX, Nvidia, Micron, Tesla & Biotech

The Monster Week Ahead: Watching – The VIX, Nvidia, Micron, Tesla & Biotech

We could see a much more relaxed market than the one we saw last week. With Tax Reform now through the Senate, the odds seem fairly good that reconciliation can produce a tax bill to be signed by the President by year-end. That should give stocks  the confidence it needs to avoid any sharp declines. Stock like Nvidia, Micron, Tesla, and the biotech sector could be in focus.

[vc_row css_animation=”” row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” angled_section=”no” text_align=”left” background_image_as_pattern=”without_pattern”][vc_column][vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”][/vc_column][/vc_row] Join our 613 Daily Subscribers And Get This Commentary In Your E-Mail! Subscribe

In terms of the political headline risk, that seem to always exist. But the original headlines that brought stocks lower on Friday seemed to have changed Friday night with a correction issued.  The political websites can address the matter; I have to make mention of it because the S&P 500 did fall by nearly 1.7 percent from to peak to trough at one point.  But stocks should feel calmer regarding this matter as well.

The Russell 2000 ETF ($IWM) was actually down by nearly 3 percent at the trough. Was the news a big deal? Yes.

^SPX Chart

^SPX data by YCharts


Sign-up for our premium content on Seeking Alpha Market Place – “Reading The Markets”  and a get Two Week Free Trial Period

Premium Content Is Great For College Students, Non-Professional, and Professional Investors. It is designed to focus on what institutional investors are watching, based on Mike’s 20 plus years of professional analytic, trading, and portfolio management career.

Premium Content: Benefits include the ability to reach out to Mike with questions through a chat room, direct message, or comments. 

We will respond to questions in short order and will respond to questions with full-post or video segment, just not one or two-word answers. 

Just $40 per Month

Machines Break Loose

Why Tesla Could Double, And Nvidia Could Get Cut In Half

Why The S&P500 Could Melt-Up Into Year End

S&P 500 Breakout- 2700?

Nailing The Biotech Breakout

 


Postive Signs

There was a positive that came out of Friday’s disaster,  that we learned the market has a substantial underlying bid it, one that merely likes to buy the dips. There will be a day when buy the dip becomes, sell it more aggressively. It will come.

VIX

Additionally, the VIX index shows just how concerned the market was by the end of the day on Friday,  which was no concern. Because by the close, the VIX was back to where to it started the day near 11.40, despite rising to nearly 14.25 intraday.

^VIX Chart

^VIX data by YCharts

Chip Stocks

The chipmakers were decimated during the week, with the PHLX Semiconductor ETF ($SOXX) down by nearly 6 percent, and stocks like Micron ($MU) down 15.5 percent, Lam Research ($LRCX) down almost 13.5 percent, and Nvidia ($NVDA) down by nearly 8.9 percent.

SOXX Price Chart

SOXX Price data by YCharts

How this group trades to start this week should be of particular interest. The group began getting some upward momentum towards the end of the day Friday, and it will be essential to see the sector continue that positive energy higher.

The best way to know if a bottom had been reached in this group would be a lower open, retesting the lows from Friday, and than a surge higher into the end of the day Monday.  It would serve as confirmation of the lows reached on Friday, and that a bottom was put in place.

Micron

Micron

For Micron it would mean retesting the lows around $40.50 and a rally taking shares above $42.

Nvidia

For Nvidia, it means retesting a price below $194, and close above and close above $201.

NVDA nvidia

Closing above $202 is very critical for Nvidia because shares of Nvidia have found themselves back in the rising wedge pattern it had been for most of 2017.  As the 5-minute chart shows above, the stock was unable to break out and rise above $202, and the upper resistance trend line of the wedge. This week for Nvidia is beyond crucial.

NVDA

Flip-Flop

It is a flip-flop from last week, because last week, we noted how stocks like Visa ($V) and Nvidia, were likely to lead the market higher heading into year-end. But like most investors and traders, the action and event of trading starting on Wednesday through the close on Friday blindsided me as well as many others. Which tell us that charts are great in the absence of news flow, but new News also trumps charts, and when the market has to reset, it will reset. So I reset, like or leave it.

Tesla

Tesla shares held up very well last week despite the volatility all over the marketplace. In fact, just look at the chart below and how the stock just stopped going down between $303 and $308. That level has been stable for Tesla since the quarterly results in mid-November.

If the stock can continue to hold this level and the broader market can regain its footing, I think Tesla could be set for a year-end rally. But I what do I know, I am likely the most bullish person on Tesla for 2018 on Wall Street, even MarketWatch noted my bullish stance, in their call of the day.

Biotech

If you want to know where Biotech is heading this week, watch Biogen and Celgene. Biogen shares broke-out last week and retested that breakout at the end of the week. The stock could be looking to fill the gap, next week.

biogen stocks

While Celgene also retested its breakout.

A good week for Biotech could mean a good week for stocks and the market.

Good Luck!

Free Articles Written By Mike: 

Stock Prices Plunge On Emotion, Not Reality

Nvidia, Micron, and Lam May Not Have Bottomed Yet

Why Gilead’s Highly Touted Stock Has No Upside

Why Under Armour Could Fall 65%

How Tax Cuts Could Boost Home Depot’s Stock

Nvidia Could Fall 60% After Bubble Bursts

Why Intel and Broadcom Are Still Cheap

Apple Will Rise 17% by June, Options Trades Indicate

Why Roku’s Rocketing Stock May Flame Out

Verizon’s Stock May Rise More Than 15% in 2018

Biotechs Celgene, Biogen May Rally Through Yearend

AMD May Have Bottomed, Stock Set to Rise

Macy’s, JC Penney Face More Declines, Options Trades Suggest

Why Tesla’s Plunging Stock Price Conceals A Bright Future

Why Disney and Comcast Should Fear Netflix

We offer a lot of great commentaries all week talking about the major and relevant market events. Be sure to subscribe to get all our free commentaries sent directly to your inbox or follow us on Twitter.

Join our 613 Daily Subscribers And Get This Commentary In Your E-Mail! Subscribe

-OR-

[vc_row css_animation=”” row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” angled_section=”no” text_align=”left” background_image_as_pattern=”without_pattern”][vc_column][vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”][/vc_column][/vc_row]

Photo Credit Via Flickr

Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own shares of  Tesla, Celgene

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2017 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #vix #chipmakers #micron #nvidia #tesla #celgene #biogen #biotech #news #youtube #stocks #week #ahead

paypal nvidia activision

Why Nvidia, Activision, and PayPal Could Lead The Market Higher

Why Nvidia, Activision, and PayPal Could Lead The Market Higher – The Monster Week Ahead Report

[vc_row css_animation=”” row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” angled_section=”no” text_align=”left” background_image_as_pattern=”without_pattern”][vc_column][vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”][/vc_column][/vc_row] Get This In Your E-Mail Subscribe

The week of November 27 will be a full-trading week, so surely all market participants will be back. There are now only five weeks left in 2017, and it will be interesting to see how the last few weeks go. As we mentioned before, there is little standing in the way of the #markets from continuing to rise. Undoubtedly, the tax reforming billing falling apart could be a huge negative, but at this point, it seems something will get done. Barring some unforeseen geopolitical event, the last five weeks of 2017 will ride on the coat-tails of the best-performing stocks, and that will help to drag everything up.

The graph below shows how many of the sectors have all gone up by about the same amount as the S&P 500, except for technology and energy, which are opposites. The #technology ETF ($XLK) is up over 33 percent, while the #energy ETF ($XLE) is down about 10 percent for the year.

IBB Chart

IBB data by YCharts

Technology Sectors Big Run

The table below shows just how strong the technology sector has been thus far in 2017.  There are only three stocks down out of the top 25, Verizon ($VZ), AT&T ($T), and IBM ($IBM).

Everyone knows the years that Micron Technology ($MU) and Nvidia ($NVDA) have had, but what about the  #Fintech companies, #PayPal ($PYPL), #Visa (V), and #MasterCard (MA),  are having absolutely monster years. PayPal is up by just about 100 percent this year. Activision Blizzard ($ATVI), the creator of video of games, has surged by almost 83 percent! These are massive gains going up and down the Sector without a doubt.

Technology XLK ETF Top 25

Technology ETF $XLK Top 25(Data Provided by Ycharts)


Sign-up for our premium content on Seeking Alpha Market Place – “Reading The Markets”  and a get Two Week Free Trial Period

Premium Content Is Great For College Students, Non-Professional, and Professional Investors. It is designed to focus on what institutional investors are watching, based on Mike’s 20 plus years of professional analytic, trading, and portfolio management career.

Premium Content: Benefits include the ability to reach out to Mike with questions through a chat room, direct message, or comments. 

We will respond to questions in short order and will respond to questions with full-post or video segment, just not one or two-word answers. 

Just $40 per Month

S&P 500 Breakout- 2700?

Nailing The Biotech Breakout

Biotech’s Signal A Bottom

GE: Just Not Worth It Anymore

Disney Is Just Too Cheap

 


Nvidia

Nvidia shares just continue to rise and is a repeat of last years monster gains. Every time we think Nvidia is finished rising, it just keeps rising. If Nvidia can cross $219, Nvidia can go higher before the year is over.

Nvidia

Activision

Activision Blizzard is on the verge of a significant break out too, just like Nvidia. If Activision can break through $67, it too will be on its way too much higher levels as well.

activision Blizzard

Fintech

PayPal

PayPal has had a tremendous run and is relatively clear which way this one has trended.

paypal

Visa

Visa has been trending nicely higher all year, and is right in its regression channel, a rise above $113 is a breakout for Visa.

VISA

MasterCard

MasterCard shares trend changed direction in May, and since then the slope of the rise has turned sharply higher. The stock is likely to continue to trend towards $160.

Mastercard

Tesla

Lastly, I through in #Tesla ($TSLA) because there has been no stock that has been more controversial over the past year or the past few years. The stock has been extremely volatile in 2017, due to the build-up of the Model 3 launch, and then the Model 3 production issues. Tesla is likely not finished being volatile anytime soon, either. But the chart has some interesting bullish indicators built into it.

First, we can see in the chart above, the breakout that occurred in 2017, after a 3-year period of consolidation. Second, we can see that Tesla, has recently tested technical support around the $290 level, which was the stock previous resistance level.

tesla

The stock has started trending higher recently, a move above $325 sends shares back into the $340’s. The $290 to $300 range will continue to act as very strong support for the stock going forward.

Good Look This Week!

Free Articles Written By Mike: 

Why Micron Is Poised To Rise 20%

Netflix Stock May Rebound 17%, Options Trades Indicate

Why The Worst Isn’t Over For IBM’s Stock

Amazon, Microsoft, and Apple May Fall Up To 11%

Qualcomm and NXP Are Cheap Based on Marvell Takeover

JP Morgan and Citigroup Are Facing More Decline

Why Biotech Sage Therapeutics Is Overvalued

Why NVIDIA’s Valuation May Be A Giant Bubble

We offer a lot of great commentaries all week talking about the major and relevant market events. Be sure to subscribe to get all our free commentaries sent directly to your inbox or follow us on Twitter.

-OR-

[vc_row css_animation=”” row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” angled_section=”no” text_align=”left” background_image_as_pattern=”without_pattern”][vc_column][vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”][/vc_column][/vc_row]

Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own shares of V,MA,TSLA, Vz

Photo Credit Via Flickr

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2017 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #SP500 $XLK $SPY #VISA #MASTERCARD #NVIDIA #ACTIVISON #TECHNOLOGY

 

Nvidia

Pop Goes Nvidia – The Week Ahead Highlights

The Week Ahead

[vc_row css_animation=”” row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” angled_section=”no” text_align=”left” background_image_as_pattern=”without_pattern”][vc_column][vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”][/vc_column][/vc_row] Get This In Your E-Mail Subscribe

It will be a short trading week, with the markets closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving, and a 1 pm close on Friday. It doesn’t mean it may not be an active week, which based on the charts, it very well could be.

The 15-minute chart of the S&P 500 shows the selling we had seen for most of the last week, except for Thursday, is likely not finished.  The rally on Thursday failed to fill the gap created on November 9. Additionally, the inability of the index to generate any follow through on Friday was also a disappointment.

S&P 500

Technology

There was a similar price action in the Technology ETF $XLK as well. The technology sector has taken over as the clear leader in the marketplace since Biotech’s mid-October meltdown. Should technology continue to stumble, the market as a whole will continue to struggle.

Technology is easily the market leader in 2017, with shares of the XLK up by 31 percent in 2017. Where Technology goes, the market will be for sure to follow. The setup in some of the leading components does not look promising over the short-term.

technology

IBB data by YCharts

Microsoft

Microsoft ($MSFT) looks as though it is heading towards the gap created after it reported strong quarterly results. It means shares are looking for a 3-4 percent pullback from the current level of roughly $82.50 to $79.25.

microsoft

Even Apple ($AAPL) looks susceptible to a pullback from around $170 to approximately $160, after running into resistance.

apple

Facebook has about $10 downside risk from the current level around $180 to about $170.

The same could be said for shares of Alphabet.

alphabet

If the technology sector starts trading lower than the entire market trades lower it is that simple.

The sell-off surely isn’t a doomsday type of scenario; this will likely be a continuation of what we have already seen. This slow pullback creating 3-4 percent decline in the S&P 500 ($SPY).


Sign-up for our premium content on Seeking Alpha Market Place – “Reading The Markets”  and a get Two Week Free Trial Period

Premium Content Is Great For College Students, Non-Professional, and Professional Investors. It is designed to focus on what institutional investors are watching, based on Mike’s 20 plus years of professional analytic, trading, and portfolio management career.

Premium Content: Benefits include the ability to reach out to Mike with questions through a chat room, direct message, or comments. 

We will respond to questions in short order and will respond to questions with full-post or video segment, just not one or two-word answers. 

Just $40 per Month

Nailing The Biotech Breakout

Biotech’s Signal A Bottom

GE: Just Not Worth It Anymore

Disney Is Just Too Cheap


Nvidia

Nvidia’s ($NVDA) is just down and out scary, it has gone completely parabolic. With the rate of the current rise, it can do nothing from here except go up in a nearly straight line. I’d hate to say it to all the Nvidia longs, but this run looks like it nearing an end.

nvda

How can you look at this chart above, and not admit that it makes you a little bit nervous? Then when you see this next chart, you have to be scared.

Nvidia

Experience has taught me through the years that stocks tend to find a trend and stick with it for some time. Then when the rally is starting to come to an end, the slope of the trend tends to turn higher, like on an expoential curve. But in this case, you can now see that the slope hasn’t changed once, but now twice. The uptrend has continued to steepen, which means the rise is accerlating. I have rarely if ever seen anything like it.

Cisco in the late 1990’s reminds me of this, as does Intel, which I recently wrote in an Investopedia article, and you can find it below in the free article section.

Don’t be so certain it will be different this time.

Free Articles Written By Mike: 

Why Biotech Sage Therapeutics Is Overvalued

Why NVIDIA’s Valuation May Be A Giant Bubble

Intel Could Fall 10 Percent Before Long-Term Rise

One Thing The Yield Curve Says About Stocks

Tesla’s Stock Heads To A Crossroad

Why Coca-Cola’s Biggest Return May Be Frustration

Biotech Alkermes Could Jump On Opioid Treatment Sales

Why GM Could Slide 10% After Bull Run

Why Biotech Stocks Are Nearing a Rebound

Higher Bid For Qualcomm Is Unlikely, Traders Indicate

Why Netflix, Nike and Starbucks Are Breaking Out

S&P 500 May Pull Back, Setting Up 20% Gain By End 2018

McDonald’s and Starbucks: A Case of Perception Vs. Reality

Nvidia Traders Expect More Gains for the Stock

Biotech Celgene Could Rebound By More Than 15%

Exxon, Chevron, and Oil Are Breaking Out

We offer a lot of great commentaries all week talking about the major and relevant market events. Be sure to subscribe to get all our free commentaries sent directly to your inbox or follow us on Twitter.

-OR-

[vc_row css_animation=”” row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” angled_section=”no” text_align=”left” background_image_as_pattern=”without_pattern”][vc_column][vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”][/vc_column][/vc_row]

Michael Kramer owns XLK Puts

Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital owns shares of GOOGL

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2017 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #Nvidia #SP500 #Technology #Microsoft #Alphabet #Facebook #xlk