Home » #alkermes

Tag: #alkermes

Micron Underwhelms, Tesla Put To The Test, and Boeing Heads Lower

Micron Underwhelms, Tesla Put To The Test, and Boeing Heads Lower



Micron Underwhelms, Tesla Put To The Test, and Boeing Heads Lower

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This FREE Commentary In Your E-Mail! 

 

MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN SHARES OF ALKS AND TESLA

Happy Summer Solstice!

The S&P 500

The S&P 500 finished lower by about 60 bps and pretty much killed my theory we would cross 2,800 this week, but it does not change my longer-term viewpoint, that we will continue higher this year.

We retested the lows seen on the 19th right around the 2,743 at support, a good sign that the index held and bounced. The good news is the index continues to hold essential levels.

spx

NASDAQ

The NASDAQ also found some help at key support levels as well.

ixic

Banks

Moving on to sectors, Banks continue to struggle, and most of the banks were trading lower after the stress test results tonight.

financials


Industrials

Industrials fell below essential support, and the uptrend, which has been in place since the election of 2016, as the reflation continues to unwind. (See: The Reflation Trade Is Dead, Plus Micron, Roku, Netflix, and Biotechs)

industrials

Boeing

Boeing is a perfect example of how quickly things have changed. It was just last week that we were talking about big options bets that Boeing would continue to rise and how it looked poised to break out. But the sellers were unwilling to let the stock climb much above $372. (See: 3 Stocks Set To Rip, and 4 Stocks Set to Dip)

Now share look set to ready to fall to $319 with no support in between.

boeing

Materials

The materials look no better.

materials

Biotechs

Biotechs did get hit hard today, but this look more like a technical gap refill, then anything fundamentally wrong.

xbi

Alkermes

One biotech that got crushed, that I happen to own is Alkermes, on a decidedly bearish note from Morgan Stanley. Accord to this guy,  Vivitrol sales, their drug for opioid addiction, are slowing, While the outlook for two keys medication in the pipeline with events later this year, do not look promising. Whooo! Talk about bad news! I mean geez. Did I sell? No, because I happen to disagree with his outlook. I have owned these shares for nearly four years now. Biotech investing is the hardest sector to invest in, period. If you don’ have the stomach to handle the volatility, then you shouldn’t be in the space.

alkermes

Tesla

The Tesla short are testing support at $346, and the nerve of the bulls. Tomorrow may be telling, who has more conviction.

tesla

Micron

Boy, I’ll tell you, trading and investing so freakin’ hard. Micron posted outstanding numbers, got a bunch of upgrades, and still an underwhelming performance. Like I said last night don’t get all excited yet. What happened by day’s end? Most of the significant gains were gone. Was it a gap fill? It looks like one.  To be honest, this was such an underwhelming performance, and until proven otherwise, with a solid rise above $62, the trend is lower.

Please do not go posting Fake News, saying I have been a bear in Micron since January, or some BS. I noted the break out in Micron on May 9. (See:  Stocks Really Breakout, A Look At Roku, Where Does Oil Go)

Does my point of view change on Micron or any stock from time-to-time, of course! This blog isn’t just about investing, but trading. Do you want to trade with the big boys? Then you better be willing to change your mind and make a decision fast! You never know when you are going to get that call from a sales-trader, with a seller of 500k share, ready to shove them down your throat, with more to go.  The one thing you can’t do is crap your pants!.  Make a decision.

micron

And with that, good night!

-Mike

Photo Credit via Flickr

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future. 

#biotech #banks #industrials #boeing #materials #alkermes #tesla #micron

Advertisements

Micron’s Massive Breakout, Plus Skyworks, Lam, Biogen, Alnylam & More


Micron’s Massive Breakout, Plus Skyworks, Lam, Biogen, Alnylam & More

The stock market was mixed on Monday, with the S&P 500 finishing the day down slightly. Technology and Biotechnology continue to be the best performing sectors in the market, with the Nasdaq Biotech IBB rising by 40 bps, and the Technology ETF XLK rising by 45 bps. The semiconductor ETF SOXX was the best performing group up another over 1 percent.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This FREE Commentary In Your E-Mail! 

 

Mott Capital Management, Michael Kramer

Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets

An In-depth Global Macro Premium Stock Market Commentary

In Video Format- See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Premium Subscription Based Membership

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

Micron

Micron’s stock was the most prominent winner up by nearly 9 percent, with the stock eclipsing the $58 technical level we had been targeting for some time. The move higher came after Nomura raised its price target on the stock to amazing $100, nearly doubling its previous target of $55. Meanwhile, Evercore upgraded the stock to $80 from $60.

If you are a Micron bull, then the good news, is the next resistance level comes somewhere around $68.

micron

Option volume was also very bullish today as well, with nearly 41,000 call contracts trading at the $55 strike price, an implies a breakeven price of nearly $62. Meanwhile, 30,000 calls contracts traded at the $60, and implies a breakeven price of nearly $64.

micron options


Skyworks

Skyworks has quietly worked its way back to nearly an all-time high. So much for the Apple supercycle issues. That is likely because Skyworks continues to diversify its customers away from Apple and continues to drive earnings and revenue growth.

skworks


Lam

Lam Research broke out, rising above its previous high, on surging volume.  Could shares climb all the way to $250? It doesn’t seem outside of the realm of possibility.

lam reserarch

 

Biogen

Biogen shares better find a bounce or the final nail may be put in the coffin of this stock. The stock sits on it technical support level around $280, and should this break below $275; it is likely headed another 11 percent lower, towards $250.

biogen

Alnylam

Shares of Alnylam broke out today, crossing above $139.50 its previous all-time high.

anylam

If the old guard biotechs aren’t going to lead the group higher, other companies are going to have to pick up the slack. Today it was Alnylam, Alkermes, and Seattle Genetics turn.

Advertisements

Alkermes

Alkermes has been floating above and below the $60 mark for some time, and it will be interesting to see if the stock can finally pull away to the upside. There is only a little bit of open interest at the May 2018 calls at the $60 strike price, with 1,700 contracts open. The calls cost about $5.00 bucks It is small bet, with a notional value of approximately $1.0 million, but the options are expensive with an implied volatility of nearly 48 percent. The stock would have to rise to about $65 to break even.

biotech

Seattle Genetics

Seattle Genetics is either close to a massive breakout or colossal breakdown. It looks a like a symmetrical triangle in the chart, and that would suggest a continuation of the prior uptrend. A Rise above $60 could bring the breakout.

 

seattle genetics

Advertisements

Charter

Charter, the cable company, is a new one for us to explore and was one of the better consumer discretionary names today. The chart has a strong set-up. We will have to keep an eye.

charter

That’s It.

Advertisements


Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets – An In-depth Global Macro Stock Market Commentary – In Video Format – See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

Recent Videos:

Micron Jumps, Nvidia’s Breakout

Market Surges Breakouts All Over

Roku Borrow Rate Surge, Biotech Fakeout?

Tech And Biotech Look Weak, Plus Subscriber Mailbag

What The Heck Happened

 

Free Articles Written By Mike:

Nvidia’s Breakout Seen Fueling 14% Stock Gain

Why Overvalued Gilead May Fall 10%

3 Chip Stocks Poised to Rise as Much as 26%

Facebook Seen Rising 20% Defying Skeptics

Roku Shares Could Fall 50% Further

Why Micron’s Stock Bulls May Be Wrong

Why Bank Stocks Are Ready for a Short-Term Pullback

 

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This Commentary In Your E-Mail! Subscribe

-OR-

[vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”]

Photo credit via Flickr

Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own shares of SWKS, ALKS

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #biotech #technology #micron #lam #skyworks #biogen #alnylam #alkermes #charter

biotech technology nasdaq 100 stocks

Biotech, Technology, And NASDAQ 100 All Breakout – S&P 500 Back To 2,880?


Biotech, Technology, And NASDAQ 100 All Breakout – S&P 500 Back To 2,880?

Stocks were in rally mode again after a better than expected job report boosted the S&P 500 by about 1.5 percent. Any hesitation I have had over the past couple of day seems to indicate that the market, technology, and biotech stocks have now broken out, and that means they may have more upside potential from here.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This FREE Commentary In Your E-Mail! 

 

Mott Capital Management, Michael Kramer

Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets

An In-depth Global Macro Premium Stock Market Commentary

In Video Format- See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Premium Subscription Based Membership

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

Let Michael help you! Have questions? Let Michael help you find the answer. Sign-up and get two weeks free: Watch the latest video: Market Surges Breakouts All Over

S&P 500 A Rise Back To 2,880

The S&P 500 is approaching the upper bound of the 2016 lows/Brexit trend line. When the index crossed over the trend back in late December, it resulted in the index surging all the way to 2,880. I think the same thing might happen again this time, as the fundamentals of the economy, the job market, and earnings continue to look very strong.

S&P 500


Biotech Stocks

The NASDAQ biotech ETF cleared two extremely critical levels over the past two days,  resistance at $111.50, and then again today $113.70. That could be a sign the ETF is set to rise all the way back to $119.25.

biotech

We see a similar confirmation in the iShares Biotech ETF (XBI) as well, with the potential for to rise to roughly $98.

One can see well the winners outweigh the losers, with only 2 of the top 25 stocks down.

biotech


Technology Stocks

Technology names broke out as well with the shares Technology ETF (XLK) soaring as well, quickly clearing the resistance level at $69.25.

technology

In fact, like the biotech stocks, the distribution of the technology sector is heavily favored to the winners, with only three stocks lower on the day.  technology

Advertisements

Microsoft

Microsoft has cleared resistance at $95.70 and has made a new all-time high.

microsoft

Netflix

Netflix shares have broken out from its two day period of consolidation.

netflix

Nvidia

Nvidia shares have also broken above its downward trend as well. My guess is thing can run towards $260.

nvidia

Alphabet

Alphabet shares appear to be playing fill the gap and could make a run towards $1200

alphabet

Advertisements

Nasdaq 100

Finally, the Nasdaq 100, has broken out.

nasdaq 100

That is it for a Friday.

Advertisements


Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets – An In-depth Global Macro Stock Market Commentary – In Video Format – See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

Recent Videos:

Market Surges Breakouts All Over

Roku Borrow Rate Surge, Biotech Fakeout?

Tech And Biotech Look Weak, Plus Subscriber Mailbag

What The Heck Happened

Breaking Down Acadia’s Results, Exploring Trends In Chips Stocks

Stocks In Rally Mode, More To Come

Crazy Market Reaction Following Fed Minutes, Plus Subscriber Mail Bag

Subscriber Mailbag, Plus Market Rundown

Free Articles Written By Mike:

Facebook Seen Rising 20% Defying Skeptics

Roku Shares Could Fall 50% Further

Why Micron’s Stock Bulls May Be Wrong

Why Bank Stocks Are Ready for a Short-Term Pullback

3 Under The Radar Stocks That Could Soar 30%

Why Home Depot May Plunge 20% Off Its Highs

Why Biotech Stocks Face Steep Declines Ahead

Netflix Stock Is Poised For An 11% Plunge

Why Salesforce’s Record Stock Gains May Not Last

4 Red Flags For Technology Stocks

Biotech Stock Nektar May Be Ripe For A Sharp Pullback

Macy’s May Fall 18% as Option Traders Turn Bears

Micron May Rise 12% As Analysts Grow More Bullish

Why Amazon’s Stock May Continue To Outperform Alibaba’s

AMD May Fall 17% as Bearish Option Volume Soars

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This Commentary In Your E-Mail! Subscribe

-OR-

[vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”]

Photo credit via Flickr

Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own shares of GOOGL NFLX

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #incyte #nektar #bitoech #technology #stocks #alkermes #costco #instacart #anlylam #nektar #incyte #nvidia 

 

 

 

biotech technology stocks

Biotech and Technology Stocks To Watch Amid A Sector Breakout And More


Biotech and Technology Stocks To Watch Amid A Sector Breakout And More

The stock market has felt like it has gone nowhere, and seems to have lost its sense of direction. It feels as though a tweet can send the market reeling lower, or soaring higher. But with all the ups and down, the S&P 500 stands today at the same place it stood on February 16, around 2,735 give or take a few points on either side. It has certainly felt more exhausting.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This FREE Commentary In Your E-Mail! 

 

Mott Capital Management, Michael Kramer

Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets

An In-depth Global Macro Premium Stock Market Commentary

In Video Format- See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Premium Subscription Based Membership

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

Let Michael help you! Have questions? Let Michael help you find the answer. Sign-up and get two weeks free: Watch the latest video: Roku Borrow Rate Surge, Biotech Fakeout?

Biotech Stocks

The biotech’s today performed better than I had anticipated, with the NASDAQ Biotech ETF ($IBB) closing at $112.62. The chart shows a hint of testing support at $111.50 on two occasions during the day, and it held. A positive for sure, and it makes today’s price action look more like a breakout now.

When looking at the breakdown of the ETF, the buying was well-distributed among the group. Nektar led the group higher; it figures Nektar would, I wrote an article the other day, saying it was due for a pullback.

biotech


Nektar

Nektar has all the signs of a stock looking like it was set to pullback, an RSI trending lower, while the stock is reaching new highs and waning volume. But to this point, the market has decided to prove me wrong.

nektar


Alnylam

Alnylam, despite rising today, still looks weak on the charts. The stock is trending lower, along with the RSI trending lower.

anlyam

Advertisements

Incyte

Incyte looks like one that is on the verge of breaking out and should it rise above $93; it would signal a breakout, giving the stock the potential to increase to $102.

incyte


Alkermes

I have owned Alkermes for years, and suddenly the stock is starting to show signs of life, with a bit more volatility. I’m not sure how much of Alkermes’ rise has to do with the connection the market has given it to Nektar, because of their immuno-oncology drug candidates,  or if it has to do with the government focus on the opioid crisis. Alkermes makes Vivitrol, an injectable 30-day drug for opiate addiction. Vivitrol has a tiny market share that has been steadily growing. But Alkermes also has a lot on its plate in 2018 from its pipeline, with its depression candidate ‘5461 and a pending FDA approval. Head to head trial result on what was ALKS ‘8700 vs. Tecfidera in MS. ALKS ‘8700 was recently renamed after Alkermes signed a licensing deal with Biogen. Plus data on ALKS ‘3831 a drug for schizophrenia. With all these catalysts its is hard to decide what is driving price now, but my gut says the connection is with Nektar still.

alkmeres

Advertisements

Technology

The Technology ETF ($XLK) closed at $69.25, and it is nearing a breakout as well, which would be nice, even though I recently wrote a piece warning of a potential double top formation. It is nice being wrong twice for sure, but hey I’m not perfect either.

technology

Activision

Activision continues to climb, and there has been very little that has seemed to slow the stock down since the start of the new year. In this case, it looks as though the trend is your friend.

activision


Nvidia

A name we haven’t mentioned in a while Nvidia has stalled since its quarterly results, which is surprising. But the chart has this negative look to it with that downtrend that has formed in recent weeks. It may be worth watching Nvidia, and seeing how it continues to trend before making a call on it.

nvidia

Advertisements

Costco

Did you notice Costco’s results? The part I’m most interested in is the e-commerce growth. I have personally never liked shopping in Costco, especially where I live in Long Island, it is crazy in the store, and the parking lots is a disaster, with people fighting over spots. But I have started using their e-commerce product a bit. Now with Costco groceries through Instacart, I have become a big fan of Costco, because I can all the good deals without having to step foot in the store.

In the quarter Costco reported e-commerce sales of about $1.5 billion, which isn’t much, I know, but it was still 4.8 percent of total revenue, which came to $32.998 billion. The Instacart part of the business is new, so I would love to see what the growth is next quarter in this part of the company.

By the way, this was the Costco where I live at checkout on a Sunday morning at 11 am, back in December.

costco

Instacart

By the way, Instacart isn’t a public company, but if you go to the website Instacart.com, you can see what stores are associated with Instacart in your neighborhood, I like the service a lot. A personal shopper goes to the store to pick up your items that your order online, and through the app, you can chat with them, and they will send you pictures of the items, or let you know if the store is out of an item, and the replacement options. Very cool.

Ok, that is all, until tomorrow.

Advertisements


Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets – An In-depth Global Macro Stock Market Commentary – In Video Format – See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

Recent Videos:

Roku Borrow Rate Surge, Biotech Fakeout?

Tech And Biotech Look Weak, Plus Subscriber Mailbag

What The Heck Happened

Breaking Down Acadia’s Results, Exploring Trends In Chips Stocks

Stocks In Rally Mode, More To Come

Crazy Market Reaction Following Fed Minutes, Plus Subscriber Mail Bag

Subscriber Mailbag, Plus Market Rundown

Free Articles Written By Mike:

Why Bank Stocks Are Ready for a Short-Term Pullback

3 Under The Radar Stocks That Could Soar 30%

Why Home Depot May Plunge 20% Off Its Highs

Why Biotech Stocks Face Steep Declines Ahead

Netflix Stock Is Poised For An 11% Plunge

Why Salesforce’s Record Stock Gains May Not Last

4 Red Flags For Technology Stocks

Biotech Stock Nektar May Be Ripe For A Sharp Pullback

Macy’s May Fall 18% as Option Traders Turn Bears

Micron May Rise 12% As Analysts Grow More Bullish

Why Amazon’s Stock May Continue To Outperform Alibaba’s

AMD May Fall 17% as Bearish Option Volume Soars

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This Commentary In Your E-Mail! Subscribe

-OR-

[vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”]

Photo credit via Flickr

Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own shares of ALKS

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #incyte #nektar #bitoech #technology #stocks #alkermes #costco #instacart #anlylam #nektar #incyte #nvidia 

stock market

7 Stocks Leading The Bull Run While The Inflation Narrative Fizzles Out

Advertisements

7 Stocks Leading The Bull Run While The Inflation Narrative Fizzles Out

The stock market continues to rally, and the S&P 500 just continues to take levels out on its march higher. Can we say at this point the narrative last week that the market was crashing because of inflation worries and rising rates was wrong? Yes. I think we can put the nail in that coffin.

Mott Capital Management, Michael Kramer

Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets

An In-depth Global Macro Premium Stock Market Commentary

In Video Format- See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Premium Subscription Based Membership

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This FREE Commentary In Your E-Mail! 

 

Inflation

The producer price index showed a y/y rise of 2.7 percent. The funny thing, is that it is down from November’s reading of 3.06 percent, where was the nervousness then? The best part, rates on the 10-year fell by two bps, to 2.88 percent.

Advertisements

BS Narrative

I sometimes wonder who the geniuses are that dream up the BS reasons why the market is rising or falling? Is it like in the Wizard of Oz? Is there some guy or gal behind a curtain making up some narrative up? But fear not! Everyone is getting short Volatility again, as the Vix continues to fall.

vix

Stock Market

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 continues to climb and is closed at 2,731, and is 200 points off the lows of 2,532, a gain of 8 percent off the lows. The next resistance level comes at 2,742, and then 2,767.

s&p 500

Netflix

Netflix has now regained nearly all of its losses and is likely to test its old highs around 288.

nflx

Alphabet (GOOGLE)

Alphabet has more work to do but has room to rise to 1,125.

alphabet

 

Nvidia

Nvidia could continue towards $260.

nvidia

Micron

Micron has a big test at $44, and needs to rise above, or else it is heading lower.

mu

Biotech

Biotechs have bounced back materially too, and leadership has come from surprising places.

biotech

Alkermes, Alexion, and Nektar? What? Yeah. New leadership has emerged, and it is not the big boys of Biotech leading the way, but the smaller companies.

Alkermes has finally broken out, as the market has finally caught on to the prospect of the companies very promising pipeline, with major events coming in 2018.

Nektar stock soared in 2018 on the promising outlook for its immunology drug.

Alexion is nearing a potentially colossal breakout as well.

That’s it for today! Good Luck

Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets – An In-depth Global Macro Stock Market Commentary – In Video Format – See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

Recent Videos:

Inflation Rising, Rates Rising, Stocks Do Not Care!

Stock Price Continue To Rebound, More To Come?

Stock Market Bouncing Back

A Line Drawn In The Sand?

Searching For The Market Bottom

We May Have Just Hit Bottom

Machines Gone Wild

Don’t Freak Out About Friday’s Sell-Off

How The “Street” Got Apple So Wrong

Free Articles Written By Mike:

Roku Options Traders Bet Stock Will Rise 15%

Why Amazon’s Record Stock Gains Are Over

Netflix Options Traders See 13% Stock Rally

3 Biotech Stocks Facing Steep Declines Ahead

Broadcom’s Bid For Qualcomm Will Fail, Traders Indicate

Tesla Analysts See Soaring Sales Amid Investor Skepticism

Cisco Traders See Stock Rebound Despite Weak Growth

4 Chipmakers Rising During the Stock Market Sell-Off

Why Alphabet’s Recent Declines Creates Opportunity

Why Netflix May Fall 10%, Setting Up Longer-Term Rise

Nvidia’s Short-Term Volatility Could Bring Long-Term Gains

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This Commentary In Your E-Mail! Subscribe

-OR-

[vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”]

Photo Credit Via Flickr

Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own shares of GOOGL, NFLX, and ALKS

 

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #yields #inflation #netflix #alkermes #alphabet #nvidia #micron

 

stocks yield yields

3 Stocks To Watch, And Why The Rising Yield Story Is Overblown

Advertisements

3 Stocks To Watch, And Why The Rising Yield Story Is Overblown

 

The focus this week will undoubtedly be on yields, with the 10-year Treasury rates climbing to over 2.8 percent this past week. Since the market is so obsessed with yields, let’s talk about yields and be smart about it. Plus we cover 3 stocks to watch and the S&P 500.

us 10-year treasury yield minus German 10-year yields

Mott Capital Management, Michael Kramer

Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets

An In-depth Global Macro Premium Stock Market Commentary

In Video Format- See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Premium Subscription Based Membership

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

Don’t Freak Out About Friday’s Sell-Off

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This FREE Commentary In Your E-Mail! 

 

Spreads

The spread between the US 10-year and the German 10-year bonds stand at about 2.10 percent, and we should care about these global yields. How long will it take before European bond buyers or Japanese bond buyer come flocking to our debt? Not long.

Historically the spread between the two is at levels not seen in a very long time. The chart below shows one would need to go back to the late 1980’s to get the current spread.

yield interest rates

The spread between US 10-year and Japanese JGB 10-years is standing at nearly 2.75 percent.

jgb 10-year yields

One would have to go back to 2006 to see the same spread between the US bonds and JGB’s.

jgp yield and interest rates

In Need Of Yield

We live in a global market and a world thirsty for yield, investors from around the world may soon be soaking up all the liquidity.

But even so, with the yields on the short-end of the curve induced by Fed pushing rates higher, the long-end of the curve was very stubborn in not adjusting higher. It would seem the long-end was unwilling to admit that the US economy was growing and that inflation was starting to creep back into the system. Now the long-end must rise, or risk inversion.

libor

But again, inflation may be creeping in, but it is no-where near runaway. Trimmed Mean PCE is tracking at only 1.7 percent, while the consumer price index is tracking at just over 2 percent.

inflation

Inflation Rising

But Oil has been steadily rising, and other commodities have been increasing as well, and therefore there is a genuine risk of inflation continuing to grow into the future, which the market is now beginning to factor in.

Will yields continue to rise, yes. But again, spreads in the global bond market are very wide now versus the US Treasuries, and that should bring buyers into our bond markets. Additionally, inflation is being to heat-up, but it at the very early stages, and the risk of overheating at this point seems a distance away.

S&P 500

Stocks are likely to remain volatile as investors try to feel there way through everything. Again, as I noted the other day, I see downside right now to around 2,740 at the moment.

S&P 500

Amazon

I think Amazon has further to fall, the stock is still at overbought levels, with an RSI above 70. My concern is the green uptrend, and a break below $1,400 likely takes the stock to around $1300, with a risk to $1250.

amazon

Look there is no doubting the earnings results and revenue growth. But the stock is up nearly 71 percent over the last 52-weeks and almost 23 percent in 2018. Watch $1,400.

[amazon_link asins=’B001KR0G2Y’ template=’ProductCarousel’ store=’us-blob’ marketplace=’US’ link_id=’2501cb18-092e-11e8-aa03-f12caff5a2f4′]

Tesla

It will be another busy earnings week with Tesla likely be the big story. Everyone will be eagerly listening to what the company says about the Model 3, and of course the cash position.

Options are pricing in about a 9 percent rise or fall after Tesla reports results, based on the long straddle options strategy set to expire on February 16, using $342.50 strike price.

Analysts are looking for the company to report revenue for the fourth-quarter rose nearly 43 percent vs. last year to $3.261 billion, while losing almost $3.11 per shares.

But for Tesla, it will be about cash flow, capital expenditures, and the cash position. Over this past week, Tesla raised nearly $550 million in an asset back securities deal. 

The conference call or the press release will hopefully give investors an idea where the company is with ramping up production for the Model-3, and whether they remain on target for 2,500 cars per week by the end of the first quarter.

The chart suggests some mild support around $335 for now, but honestly, I’m not sure technicals matter going into these results.

tslA

Alkermes

Finally, I will be watching Alkermes, whose shares jumped by nearly 9 percent towards the end of Friday. There was news reported by Bloomberg that Nektar was considering a sale, and for some strange reason, the fly.com mentioned Alkermes was rising because Nektar announced it would sell itself. The report notes the two companies have a similar oncology drug. But both Alkermes drug and Nektar’s drug that are similar are only in Phase 1. So I don’t see the connection. Keep in mind Alkermes has data coming in its head-to-head trial for ALKS 8700, for MS, vs. Tecfiedera soon, which Biogen just signed a licensing deal with Alkermes for, and data for ALKS 3831, its drug for schizophrenia coming soon.

The upcoming data for Alkermes is the driver. Mind you Nektar finished Friday lower.

[amazon_link asins=’B001RTSGRM,B0027VSU9S’ template=’ProductGrid’ store=’us-blob’ marketplace=’US’ link_id=’ddac9aaa-07bd-11e8-b496-4d0ce69fcd2f’]

Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets – An In-depth Global Macro Stock Market Commentary – In Video Format – See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free Trial

Recent Videos:

Don’t Freak Out About Friday’s Sell-Off

How The “Street” Got Apple So Wrong

Qorvo Sheds Some Light On Apple

Did Broadcom Seal Apple’s Fate?

The Sky Is Falling. Relax It’s Not.

Getting Ready For S&P 500’s Pullback, Plus Subscriber Mailbag

Dollar Breaking Down, Biotech And Intel Breakout

Why Apple May Not Be Toast Afterall

Why It May Be Time To Get Bullish On Materials As Dollar Plunges

 

Free Articles Written By Mike:

Bitcoin Investors Face More Pain On Likely 35% Plunge

Why Apple’s Supercycle Has Only Begun

Qualcomm’s Time To Decide Its Fate Has Come

Why Visa’s Stock Is Running on Fumes

How Tesla Mauled The Bears

Chipmaker Broadcom Doesn’t Need Apple To Rebound

Apple May Lose Crown As World’s Most Valuable Company

Chipmaker Skyworks Seen Rising Despite Apple Skepticism

Why Boeing’s Stock Will Keep Flying High

Why Microsoft Is Ready For A 10% Fall

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This Commentary In Your E-Mail! Subscribe

-OR-

[vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”]

Photo Credit Via Flickr

Michael Kramer of Mott Capital own shares of TSLA and ALKS

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #alkermes #tesla #amazon #yields #stock #rates

Apple Stock Market Options Price

What Apple and Biotech Alkermes Have In Common

Advertisements

What Apple and Biotech Alkermes Have In Common

Investing is never easy, but I will tell you, there is more information available today than at any other point in history, you just have to look for it. Alkermes and Apple are two pretty good examples of that. If you do your homework and think outside of the herd mentality, you are at a major advantage.

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This Commentary In Your E-Mail! Subscribe

 [vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”]  

Alkermes

A great example of how the market can be asleep is Alkermes ($ALKS). I own Alkermes, so maybe it is a bit of an unfair advantage, and I have owned it now since August of 2014, so a long time. When the company presented at the JP Morgan Healthcare conference the very last slide noted 2017 revenue estimates of $870 to $900 million in sales, a non-event, right? But that is not the case because the company had noted when it released third-quarter results in October that revenue for 2017 would be only $850 to $880 million. So what happens today? Well, every financial website noted that Alkermes raised full-year guidance for 2017.

This is why it is important you do your homework from time to time, and question the things you read. In an 8-k filing on November 27, on page 3, the company noted that it saw revenue of $870 to $900, million. Alkermes was expecting to recognize the majority of the upfront payment of $28 million from its new licensing deal with Biogen, for ALKS 8700, a drug for the treatment of MS.

First of all, it should teach you that when you own a stock and you read something, do your homework and double-check what you are reading and do not trust everything. It isn’t that Alkermes suddenly raise guidance at the conference because it didn’t. They had already increased guidance nearly two months ago,  and the raise was only because of the added payment from the licensing deal.

So whether the stock has gone up for two days in a row on this “news”, I do not know. But I wanted to use this merely as an example. I hope you learned something.

Apple

I’m so tired of hearing about Apple and this stupid iPhone X demand crap. Again, today, the same thing. The estimates tell the story, because for all the concern and chatter in the marketplace about the iPhone X being so weak, and all these production issues, why hasn’t the street started taking the revenue numbers down? Why?  The next two quarters have actually seen revenue estimates rise over the past 3 months.

AAPL Revenue Estimates for Current Quarter Chart

AAPL Revenue Estimates for Current Quarter data by YCharts

So I ask if there is weak demand in the “channel”, why have estimates not fallen? Why has the stock risen by nearly 12 percent over the past three months? Why did companies like Broadcom and Jabil offer such strong guidance just a few weeks ago? Does it make any sense? No. Think about that.

 

Amazon

Amazon has had such a massive breakout; it is so amazing and beautiful.

The market is looking for a huge beat when the company reports fourth-quarter results, that is obvious. Look at revenue estimates in the chart below and look at the stock price.  It Speaks volumes about how the market is getting way ahead of the forecast.

AMZN Revenue Estimates for Current Quarter Chart

AMZN Revenue Estimates for Current Quarter data by YCharts

Tesla

Tesla shares look like they are ready for a significant breakout, one that could send the stock sharply higher. The stock is stuck at strong multi-month downtrend, and should it break; I think it can make a run back to $385. I’m crazy, right? We shall see, I’m just telling it the way I see it. I’m not right all the time.

tesla

Biotech

Ok well, we might as get one bit in on the biotech’s, because after all if you aren’t investing in biotech’s you’re not living. The NASDAQ Biotech ETF ($IBB) chart looks pretty darn healthy, and I’m thinking we see $114 before we see $107 again.

That is it.biotech

That is it.


Sign-up for our premium content on Seeking Alpha Market Place – “Reading The Markets”  and a get Two Week Free Trial Period

Premium Content: Benefits include the ability to reach out to Mike with questions through a chat room, direct message, or comments. 

Now JUST $25 Per Month Or $200 Per Year

Predicting The Euro’s Rise

An Intelligent Way Of Looking At Tesla’s Results

3 Biotech Names To Start The Year

Disney- The Market Finally Get’s It

Why The FANG’s Could Lead In 2018


Free Articles Written By Mike:

Why Under Armour’s Plunge Has Only Begun

Why The FAANGs’ Big Gains May Be Far From Over

Nvidia’s Breakout May Spur A Nearly 15% Gain

How Celgene’s Big Acquisition Could Fire Up Its Stock

Why the Bears Won’t Win at Tesla

Nvidia’s Stock Faces Its Moment of Truth

Why AMD May Rise 17% Higher On Intel’s Woes

Why These 3 Oil Stocks Will Outperform

Why NXP Shareholders Will Prosper Without a Qualcomm Deal

Netflix Breakout Seen Boosting Stock By 17%

We offer daily market commentaries sent directly to your inbox or follow us on Twitter.

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This Commentary In Your E-Mail! Subscribe

-OR-

[vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”]

Photo Credit Via Flickr

Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own shares of ALKS and TSLA

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2017 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #biotech #apple #alkermes #amazon #tesla 

Biotech Stocks

Biotech Stocks Monster Bounce Back, Plus Micron, Lam, Rates, and Oil

Advertisements

Biotech Stocks Monster Bounce Back, Plus Micron, Lam, Rates, and Oil

If you aren’t investing in Biotech, then you aren’t living. Yesterday, biotech stocks were getting smashed, and today was like yesterday never happened. Today the S&P SPDR Biotech ETF (XBI) climbed by over 2.5 percent, and the NASDAQ Biotech ETF rose by nearly 2 percent. Believe it or not, the two ETF’s are trading at levels higher than where they started the day yesterday. Go figure. You can’t make this stuff up.

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This Commentary In Your E-Mail! Subscribe

 [vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”]  

XBI Price Chart

XBI Price data by YCharts

It is worth noting that many of the stocks we mentioned yesterdays such as Neurocrine ($NBIX), Exact Sciences ($EXAS), Clovis ($CLVS), Amicus ($FOLD), and Exelixis ($EXEL) did not recover their losses. Because those stocks fell on fundamental reason, and while the charts for each still look intact, they do have further downside risk.

XBI Price Chart

XBI Price data by YCharts

 

Nektar

But there were plenty of big winners, today with Nektar ($NKTR) for one surging by nearly 19 percent. Have you seen the chart of this thing? Wow! It is up 191 percent since November 1, a company with valued at almost $11 billion market cap. I’m sorry, I wish I knew more about this business, but I don’t. Maybe someone could shed some light on it?

Biotech

(Data compiled using Ycharts)

Bioverativ

Bioverativ ($BIVV) jumped by nearly 7 percent. Cowen raised its price to $100 from $80, noting the company’s 2017 preliminary results, and 2018 guidance. Technically the stock looks like it has officially broken out, but be careful here, the market loves to play the game of fill the gap, and that means the stock could give back the gains to $56.50, before resuming its upward trend.

Bivv

Alkermes

Alkermes shares jumped by over 5 percent today after the CEO was on a show called Mad Money with some other guy named Cramer (humor, it is ok to smile or chuckle). The stock looks like it trying to break out here, and it has plenty of things in the pipeline in 2018 to come.

alkermes


On-Demand Content

In the premium video today, I talk about why the biotech sector’s hot run is not over yet, and two biotech stocks I like in 2018.

Tesla Stock Escapes From Model 3 Disaster – Premium Content

Apple iPhone Shipment Maybe Better Than Feared

Why Biotech May Outperform In 2018 

Thinking About 2018


Micron

Micron shares just don’t look appealing here, after that monster beat and excellent guidance. The stock has struggled mightily to break out, and again it failed at $47. I have said this before, and I will repeat it, $40 is critical to this one. Break $40 and lower the stock shall go. 

micron

Lam Research

Lam Research ($LRX) has performed well, and has solidified around support at $185-86, and is starting to make a nice move higher. The stock for now looks like it has broken a downtrend, with rising volume and rising relative strength, an increase towards $220 seems likely. 

lam

 


Sign-up for our premium content on Seeking Alpha Market Place – “Reading The Markets”  and a get Two Week Free Trial Period

Premium Content: Benefits include the ability to reach out to Mike with questions through a chat room, direct message, or comments. 

Now JUST $25 Per Month Or $200 Per Year

Predicting The Euro’s Rise

An Intelligent Way Of Looking At Tesla’s Results

3 Biotech Names To Start The Year

Disney- The Market Finally Get’s It

Why The FANG’s Could Lead In 2018


Oil

In my ten predictions for 2018 coverage, I said Oil was heading to $75, and today it got one step closer. The commodity broke out rising comfortably above $62. There is no resistance between here and $75. 

oil

10-Year

I also predicted 10-year rates would climb to 3 percent, well that just had a massive breakout also today. 

ten yearThat is, until tomorrow.


Free Articles Written By Mike:

Why Under Armour’s Plunge Has Only Begun

Why The FAANGs’ Big Gains May Be Far From Over

Nvidia’s Breakout May Spur A Nearly 15% Gain

How Celgene’s Big Acquisition Could Fire Up Its Stock

Why the Bears Won’t Win at Tesla

Nvidia’s Stock Faces Its Moment of Truth

Why AMD May Rise 17% Higher On Intel’s Woes

Why These 3 Oil Stocks Will Outperform

Why NXP Shareholders Will Prosper Without a Qualcomm Deal

Netflix Breakout Seen Boosting Stock By 17%

We offer daily market commentaries sent directly to your inbox or follow us on Twitter.

Join our 611 Daily Subscribers And Get This Commentary In Your E-Mail! Subscribe

-OR-

[vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”]

Photo Credit Via Flickr

Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own shares of ALKS

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2017 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #biotech #exelixis #nvidia #neurocrine #amicus #XBI #IBB #ALKERMES #LAM #micron #nektar