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Banks, Bets, Breakouts, and Blame – Freaky Friday


Banks, Bets, Breakouts, and Blame – Freaky Friday

It was another exciting day in the stock market. Nah not really,  it was mostly uneventful. Technicals continue to dominate trading, with the S&P 500 testing resistance at 2,672, and testing support at 2,647, at the end of the day, we closed at 2,656.

 

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S&P 500

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Taking A Look The Banks, And Prepping For Earnings Season

Banks

As of right now, it would seem that the financials will not be the group to lead stocks higher. JP Morgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo reported results and all three were down despite posting good results. It could be a combination of things at play, expectations were for better, all the good news has been baked in, or investors are concerned about slowing earnings growth. It doesn’t matter what the reason was, but what seems to be crystal clear to me at least, is that the banks will not be the group to lead this market higher.financials


Yields

I think for the most part the treasury yields on the long-end of the curve are not giving in and are refusing to rise, and again I think that is a function of the low yield environment globally. The Fed can control the short-end of the curve, but the Fed has no control over the longer-end the yield curve. As long as the free market controls the long-end of the curve, I think the yield curve may continue to flatten, and that is very bad for the banks and interest income.

The spread between German and US bond is fairly steep at over 2.3 percent, and that is likely a problem

yields

In fact, I continue to believe the 10-year is going back to 2.6 percent.

Amazon

Amazon failed to stay above 1,440. Again, bad!

amazon

Nvidia

So now, Citron is betting Jim Cramer $230k that Nvidia’s stock will be below $230 in 12 months.

All I can say to Citron is that Nvidia is a tough stock to bet against. I have never once traded a share of Nvidia long or short. But I have sure written plenty on it, and I for some time I was extremely negative on it, probably from around $100 to $200, :). Every time I thought Nvidia would crack, or revenue and earnings would slow, they didn’t. To this point, it still may be easy to bet shares of Nvidia continue to rise than to bet they shall fall. Good luck to those two, I’ll remain an onlooker.


Netflix

Netflix shares broke out today, and it managed to close above the downtrend. That is a positive, considering the stock is heading into results Monday after the close. The stock got a couple more upgrades today as well. I will put a pre-earnings look on Sunday, again.

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Tesla

Elon Musk was busy on Twitter today, first challenging the economist and claiming Tesla will be cash flow positive in third and fourth quarters, and then taking the blame for excessive automation causing problems in production.

I have no idea if Tesla will be cash flow positive or not by the third quarter. Lets first see how the first and second quarters go.

The one thing I do know is that that stock can’t get over $303.

tesla

Oil continues to rise and is getting closer to our $75 target.

oil

That’s it, see you Sunday! No commentary tomorrow, I’m taking the day off!

-Mike

 

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

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Tags: #stockmarket #sp500 #amazon #tesla #nvidia #netflix #jpmorgan #banks

 

 

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technology stocks

Technology Stocks Are Getting Ready To Go Higher, Plus Much More


Technology Stocks Are Getting Ready To Go Higher

There were a couple of positive developments today. First, the S&P was higher, by 83bps, and closed at 2,663. Next, the close above that pesky resistance level at 2,660 we had been watching. Today also established that 2,672 is now the next resistance area. The last two times the S&P 500 got to 2,672 it was followed by two nasty downdrafts, resulting in a fall of about 3 percent back to 2,600, each time. A rise above 2,672 would be an immensely positive sign for a continuation of the most recent rally.

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S&P 500


Technology Stocks

A new trend line was born today for the technology sector, XLK, and for the first time in a while, the technology sector has a direction other than down. $67.10 continues to be a resistance level, but should it rise above resistance to say $67.50 it gives the ETF a perfect shot of filling the gap at $69.25.

technology

Nvidia

Nvidia looks to be heading back towards $245.

nvda

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Consumer Stocks

Discretionaries are continuing to struggle after hitting resistance around $102.

consumer

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Amazon

For right now, Amazon maybe the only stock capable of lifting the entire group. First, because it has a nearly 20 percent weighting in the ETF, second because today it closed above $1,440, a mild positive. There are still plenty of hurdles for Amazon to overcome; the most obvious is that the stock needs to stay $1,440.

amazon


Netflix

Netflix appears to be setting up for a breakout towards $322. The company reports results on Monday after the close; I will have a closer look at it over the weekend.

nflx


BANKS

Tomorrow will be a big day for the banks, with JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup all reporting before the open.

JP Morgan is slightly breaking out

jp morgan

But the setup in Citi doesn’t look nearly as strong.

citigroup

If the banks want to be a leading sector in the stock market, tomorrow will be the day they can prove they are capable are leading or not.

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Acadia

Why is Acadia not back to $22 already, after the BS story from Monday? I was shocked to see the FDA made a statement on it.

The stocks downdraft proves once again you can’t believe everything you read, and that understanding what you are invested is so extremely important.

At this point, I’d be happy if we filled the first gap at $22, but the one at $30 would be a whole lot better.

acad


Tesla

You know, I was gonna end after Acadia, but then I saw this stupid analyst comment that Tesla is going to fall $84, because, get this, “increasing competition.” Are there no cars sold today? Is Tesla the only automaker in the whole world? Of course not.

I’m sorry, but Tesla has competition today and has had competition since the moment Elon Musk thought about making a car. A car is a car, and the thought that because Audi or Mercedes is going to start making an electric car, people are suddenly going to stop buying Tesla’s seems crazy to me. If someone wants to buy a Mercedes, they can get one right now. I do not think the world has become entrenched enough in the thought process of buying only green cars, that everyone is now running to Tesla. Besides, just how green are electric cars? The energy to power the battery needs to come from somewhere.  They are undoubtedly better than gas but come on; you still need the energy.

By the way, once again, the proof is the Chevy Bolt, how many cars did Chevy sell so far in 2018? A crappy 4,375.  How many in 2017 total? 23,297. Btw, they cost nearly 3 times less than a Model S, so why not 3 times the sales if the electric part matter so much?

People are buying a brand; they aren’t buying it because of the engine or motor type.

Good luck tomorrow

-Mike

 

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Tags: #stockmarket #sp500 #amazon #tesla #acadia #nvidia #netflix #jpmorgan #banks

The Stock Market Will Continue To Rise As Red Flag’s Blow Away


The Stock Market Will Continue To Rise As Red Flag’s Blow Away

Just like that the stock market recouped nearly half its loses from last week, with the S&P 500 surging by almost 2.7 percent. Maybe it is me, but did anything materially change from Friday? Did all those Red Flag’s blow away? Did the trade war that everyone feared suddenly evaporate? Did China agree to cave and give us all of our demands? Did the surging Libor mystery finally get solved? Did the Fed stop paring its balance sheet? Did Elon Musk create a time machine that allowed us to bypass 1987, and go straight to 1988? I want to know what change, because from the way I see it, nothing materially changed since Thursday or Friday.

 

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Buying More Semis?

The Chinese have agreed to buy more semiconductors from the US; I’m curious to know just how much more they are planning to buy because I can’t seem to figure that part out. Is it $1 more or the $14 billion that Intel’s market cap went up today? How about they first approve Qualcomm buying NXPI, without Qualcomm having to give more concessions?

So at the end of the day nothing changed, except perception.

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Trade War Is BS

It is still my belief the Trade War theory was complete BS. If it was on trade war fears why did the banks get slammed the most? Facebook had plenty of reasons to go lower as well. Then my favorite is the dollar! The dollar went down last week on heightening trade war concerns, but yet trade tensions easied over the weekend, but guess what, the dollar still went down today. Undoubtedly the dollar should have surged on the relief of the trade war tensions. You see a surge higher? I don’t.

dollar


Financials Fall

Here is a five-day chart of the S&P 500, financials, and technology starting on March 20. Financials had a more prominent jump following the Fed results, and by the way, had the more significant decline. Notice which group is still underperforming as of today’s massive rise? The financials. 

Here is another chart, with the materials and industrials, right in the middle of the trade war tensions, which group performed worse? The financials. Which group is still trailing? The financials.

XLF Price Chart

XLF Price data by YCharts

So why did the banks go down so much? Are they really in the middle of the trade war tensions? Usually, banks go up and down based on interest rates, and spreads, right?


Not As Many Hikes

I still believe that the trade war narrative has been overplayed. The real culprit here are rates, and you can see it in the dot plot that the Fed likes to put out. It is also the reason why the dollar has continued to fall, and the reason why 2-year yields went down after the FOMC. The majority of the plots on the dot plot chart fall between 2 and 2.25 percent. The effective Fed funds rate today for all intensive purposes is 1.7 percent, 2 more hikes equal 50 bps, which takes the rate to 2.2 percent! It means that we likely don’t get four rate hikes in 2018, just three.

When did we start talking about four rates? After the January jobs report, with the hot wage growth, that sparked inflation fears. What was one of the hottest groups in the stock market from February 8 through March 20?  Technology, which surged by nearly 10 percent, and the banks which were up almost 6 percent, and what was the worse performing group during that time, well the utilities. Why did the utitlites underperform? Becuase rising rates aren’t good for high yield equities.

XLF Chart

XLF data by YCharts

The Dollar

What about the dollar, you know it was up from February 2 through March 20 by 1.4 percent, and down 1.5 percent since March 20. Higher inflation means higher rates, suggests a strong dollar, and vice versa.

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Why Do Banks Matter

So why did the market go down last week? Because investors realized that they weren’t going to get four rates hikes in 2018, and that sparked the sell-off in the banks, and that is the reason they are still the worst performing sector over the past five days. While JP Morgan, Berkshire, Citigroup, Bank of America, and Well Fargo, have a weighting of 6.4 percent in the SPY ETF.

Or Facebook?

Why did the market go down last week? Because Facebook had some really crappy news and it took the hottest sector down with it.  Why does it matter if Facebook is down? Because it has a 6.5 percent weighting in the XLK, and 5 percent weight in the QQQ’s and 1.73 percent weight in the SPY. Is that reason enough?

How Will I Know If I’m Right?

So how will I know if I’m right, well banks should continue to underperform along with Facebook, while the rest of the market continues to recover.

Night!

-Mike

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

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#banks #sp500 #stockmarket #technology #stocks

 

stock market yield trade wars

2 Reasons Why The Stock Market Is Falling- It Ain’t Trade War Fears


2 Reasons Why The Stock Market Is Falling- It Ain’t Trade War Fears


The markets sure moves fast these days, the S&P 500 was down by nearly 6 percent this week! $1.1 trillion in market cap wiped off the S&P 500 over the past two days, and  $1.5 trillion for the week! So you think the trade wars totals will amount to that much? Unless this is really about something else.

What was the worst performing sector of the week the Techs! The XLK was down 7.1 percent this week. But the worst performing group over the past two days? Financials! Down 6.27 percent. All the big name banks down between 6 and 9 percent over the past couple of days.

Trade wars financials technology

XLU Price data by YCharts

 

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Trade War –  No Way

I know Nike reported results today, and they were strong, but Nike revenue from greater China in the fiscal third-quarter was nearly 15 percent, but still, Nike was up today.

You know how much business Morgan Stanely did in Asia in 2017?  Not much! Total revenue for the company was $37.9 billion, and $4.4 billion was in ASIA, not just China, 11.6 percent of total revenue. So not sure that the banks are getting slammed on this the trade war concerns.


2 Reasons Why

So there seem to be two things going on in the stock market today. One, risk is coming off the table in the big Techs that have had massive run-ups, and Facebook was the start of that. Amazon was down nearly 5 percent this week, Netflix 5.5 percent, and Microsoft 8 percent.

yields

Second, banks are falling because the market is telling us that the Fed is likely not to be as aggressive raising rates as the market had previously thought. The odds of 4 rate hikes this year diminished rapidly. Why? Because inflation is in check and pretty much a dead issue, look at wage growth, CPI, PPI and PCE data. Look at the yield curve. 10-year yields have fallen since Wednesday afternoon, and the dollar is weakening.

dollar

So we have an unwind of some crowded technology stocks, and a move out of financials.

 

Too Much Concentration In Two Sectors

So why is the market going down, well look! There are only three stocks in the top 15 companies in the S&P 500 that are not Tech or Financials. I know Amazon says consumer cyclical, but come on, it trades with the techs.  Remember at the beginning of the article I told you that the S&P 500 lost $1.5 trillion in market value this week. Well, $571 billion or 37 percent of that was in these 15 stocks.

(Data compiled using Ycharts)

More stock specific stuff over the weekend.

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Tags: #sp500 #tech #technology #financials #banks #dollar #yield

stock market 2018

What The Stock Market Says About 2018

What The Stock Market Says About 2018

2017 is over, but it is not forgotten. Looking back at the past couple of weeks of 2017 could give some excellent clues about how the stock market may start 2018. 

With no surprise Technology stocks were the runaway winners in 2017, with the Technology Sector ETF ($XLK) up by over 32 percent. The rest of the market pretty much stayed within a percentage point or two of the broader S&P 500, except for the staples, utilities, and energy, as measured by the Consumer Staples ETF ($XLP), Utilities ETF ($XLU), and Energy ETF ($XLE).

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^SPX Chart

^SPX data by YCharts

 

In my premium video, in reasonable detail, I run through how the different sectors set up and where the ETF’s might rise or fall too. The video is about nine minutes long and I run through many charts, pulling a lot of pieces into the video for the start of 2018. It an instructional video, so you will see exactly what I’m looking at. 

If you don’t want to watch the video, then the article will get you the key points across, because the last three months of the year give us an excellent idea of how the market has positioned itself. 

Consumer Stocks

In the chart below, we can see that Consumer Discretionary stocks were the best performing group over the past three, up by over 9.5 percent, followed by Technology, and Financials ($XLF). While Biotech, Utilities, and Healthcare performed the worst. 

^SPX Chart

^SPX data by YCharts

The strong performance in the Discretionary was due to Tax Reform. The table below shows the high tax rates some of these companies pay and then their stock performance over the past 3-month. There are obviously other issues that go into the price action, other than just tax rates, but the higher tax-rate companies performed pretty well. 

Consumer Stocks

(Complied Using Ycharts)

Bank Stocks

Financials again fall into the same high-tax rate scenario, but also could benefit in 2018 if the yield curve begins to get steeper, meaning rates on the longer-end of the yield curve starts to rise faster than the rates of the short-end. In short, the 10-Year minus 2-Year Treasury Spread. But the chart again shows the high tax-rate companies strong performance. 

Financial Stocks stock market

(Complied Using Ycharts)

When reviewing the chart above, one should ignore MetLife, when evaluating the tax rates over the past couple of quarters, they have been all the place, and I do not know the story well enough to understand why. 

MET Effective Tax Rate (Quarterly) Chart

MET Effective Tax Rate (Quarterly) data by YCharts

Interest Rate Spread

The 10-2 Spread has been contracting over the past several years, and on the long-end of the curve will need to rise, or the banks could be in trouble later in the year, after the effects of tax-reform fall off. Remember banks earn money on interest, and that is borrowing short-term and lending long-term, taking the spread. Think saving accounts,  at near zero rates, and a mortgage rate, say around 4 percent on a 30-year. If rates on longer-term bonds start rising faster, the spread gets larger. 

10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread Chart

10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread data by YCharts

 

Biotech and Healthcare

We can also see that money rotated out of biotech and healthcare, for the exact opposite reason, they pay among some of the lowest tax rates. Therefore money turned out of these sectors into the one mentioned above. 

How long this rotation last is the question. 


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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

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Tags: #predictions2018 #consumer #discretionary #banks #biotech #healthcare #2018 #stocks #sp500 #yield

biotech stocks roku

Biotech Stocks Breakout, Plus Roku, Technology, Oil, Inflation, Banks

Biotech Stocks Breakout, Plus Roku, Technology, Oil, Inflation, Banks

Biotech stocks have quietly broken out, and the Nasdaq Biotech ETF ($IBB) is trading above $107. We have been watching the IBB ETF now for a couple of weeks waiting for this breakout to happen and it has.  That is a big deal, and it could mean the ETF is about to rise further, perhaps all the way back to around $114, an increase of about 6.5 percent.

biotech

The rise in the iShares Biotech ETF ($XBI) confirms the breakout in the $IBB ETF. The XBI ran into some resistance around $85.75.

biotech

But the XBI setup on the 5-Minute chart looks relatively stable, and it would also suggest a rise in the XBI is likely not stalling out yet.

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Look at the rise some of the stocks in the XBI ETF over the past ten days.

biotechData Compiled from Ycharts

Technology Stocks

Technology stocks may be getting set for a bounce, the Technology ETF $XLK has found support around $64 and could use this support as a place to rebound and move higher, perhaps to about $65.

technology

Alphabet ($GOOGL) is showing signs of a potential breakout on the way with a symmetrical triangle forming.

 

Roku

The share of Roku appears to be continuing to deteriorate on a technical basis as well. The relative strength index continues to decline, while volume continues to evaporate. The trend seems to be turning negatively as well, and the stock has one last area of support at the uptrend line, around $52, a move lower from their seems the stock down.

roku

Roku is nothing more than a product that will become commoditized; it is not a streaming media play in my opinion. The winners in the space will be the content creators.  The advertising on the platform does not seem that great, within my experience, ads only seem to run before games on Roku. Additionally, competition will continue to increase from players like Amazon, Alphabet, and Apple.  My thoughts on Roku.

Banks, Inflation, and Oil

The banks keep rising, but it makes no sense in some regards but does in others. A cut back on regulations will surely help the banks, while corporate tax cuts will help earnings. But for now, the yield curve continues to show pressure and continues to contract. The 10-year minus 2-year spread is continues to fall, and is around 0.6%.

But the bank stocks continue to rise, telling us either the bond market is getting it wrong on inflation and US Economic growth. Or the equity market merely is too bullish, letting deregulation and tax reform drive the stock prices higher.

You have likely seen this chart here before, but where Oil goes so does inflation.

Well, Oil is on the verge of a significant breakout, one that could send it on towards $75. What does that mean for inflation? Do you want to guess?

 

Night!

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

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Tags: #biotech #inflation #technology #banks #roku #oil

stocks S&P 500 consumer

Technology Sell-Off Continues As S&P 500 Makes Big Reversal

Technology Sell-off Continues As S&P 500 Makes Big Reversal

It was another wild day on Wall Street, with the Technology S&P 500 having a huge reversal. Stocks open strongly, but Technology began to fade by mid-morning, and by the close, the S&P 500 had reversed a nearly 80 bps advance to close down by 10 bps.

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It has been a while since I have written about our old friend, the February 2016/Brexit trendline. It is a trend line I have been merely extending, as the days and month have gone by for nearly two years, and still, it holds a level of importance almost 2 years later.

S&P 500

When we look at the chart more closely, we can see that the S&P 500 was able to rise above that trendline, something that has not been able to achieve for a while.

SP 500

We can see that it is acting as a strong level of resistance still, and the S&P 500 reversed after hitting it. Could we be looking for a retreat to 2,600? Sure. Is it a big deal? No. In fact, the trading action the last couple of days has been absolutely nuts.

VIX

The Vix was up modestly today, to about 11.68, undoubtedly very low levels still. If you haven’t seen this article on the ZeroHedge or the video that goes with it, check it out. It is fascinating.

^VIX Chart

^VIX data by YCharts

Netflix

As noted in our blog write-up from Friday, Netflix shares continue to trend lower and seem to be heading back towards the lower end of the channel around $170.  The resistance at $190, to this point, has held firm.

netflix

Semi Stocks

The semiconductors continue to get slammed, with no sign of a bottom yet forming. We got the sell-off we had looked for, but instead of a bounce and rally into days end, the selling just continued. The only stock performing well in the group is Intel ($INTC), and that is because the stock has so badly underperformed all year-long.

NVDA Price Chart

NVDA Price data by YCharts

Intel

Intel shares are up only 22 percent so far in 2017, and while that sounds great it pales in comparison to the returns of Micron, Nvidia, and Lam which even after the massive sell-offs are still all up about 70 percent.

NVDA Chart

NVDA data by YCharts


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 Microsoft

Even big tech names like Microsoft ($MSFT) got clocked today, falling by nearly 4 percent on the day, to close at $81. Share of the stock are now in the middle of filling the gap, and likely to continue to fall back towards $79.

microsoft

Apple appears to be rolling over as well, and looks ready to move back towards $160.

apple

Alphabet looks very close to a bottom.

alphabet

Banks

One of the big beneficiaries of this rotation has been the bank stocks, which have risen at the cost of Tech just look at the chart and the divergence below.

XLF Chart

XLF data by YCharts

Consumer Stocks

While Consumer discretionary stocks like Home Depot, Costco, Disney, and Starbucks have taken off.

XLY Chart

XLY data by YCharts

Technology Stocks

Technology merely got overextended, and now the shares of these stocks need to come back down. The XLK suggest it needs to fill that gap at $61 and return to its long-term trading channel, a decline of another 2 percent.

xlk

The bottom is coming in the tech wreck just not yet.

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We offer a lot of great commentaries all week talking about the major and relevant market events. Be sure to subscribe to get all our free commentaries sent directly to your inbox or follow us on Twitter.

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Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own shares of  $NFLX, $DIS, $SBUX, $GOOGL

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2017 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #vix #chipmakers #micron #nvidia #news #stocks #consumer #starbucks #disney #banks

technology rotation banks industrials

Technology Rotation Continues – Silver Linings Emerge

Technology Rotation Continues – Silver Linings Emerge

There is no doubt that investors are getting excited about a corporate tax cut that is on the horizon. You can see it just by looking at the sector performance; it is clear as a beautiful day in Montauk on the eastern end of Long Island, overlooking the Block Island Sound.

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XLY Price Chart

XLY Price data by YCharts

Where is money flowing for the moment? From Technology into Industrials and Financials. Here are the effective tax rates of the “FANG’s” Facebook ($FB), Apple ($AAPL), Netflix ($NFLX) and Alphabet ($GOOGL). Notice how I omitted Amazon ($AMZN), more on that in a minute.

GOOGL Effective Tax Rate (TTM) Chart

GOOGL Effective Tax Rate (TTM) data by YCharts

It looks like Apple’s effective tax rate is the highest there at about 24 percent, how much do you think Apple benefit from a tax cut? Not much.

From the chart Amazon below we can see the tax rate they pay is pretty much all over the place, along with the operating and net income.

AMZN Effective Tax Rate (TTM) Chart

 

AMZN Effective Tax Rate (TTM) data by YCharts


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Industrials

Then there are the Industrials, like Boeing ($BA), 3M ($MMM), Union Pacific ($UNP), General Dynamics ($GD), FedEx ($FDX) which pay very high levels of Tax.

BA Effective Tax Rate (TTM) Chart banks industrials

BA Effective Tax Rate (TTM) data by YCharts

Banks

The banks also pay high effective tax rates as well.

JPM Effective Tax Rate (TTM) Chart

JPM Effective Tax Rate (TTM) data by YCharts

So money is merely rotating right now, eventually, when valuations get sorted out over the next couple of days and weeks, things should start evening out again.

Technology Tested

If there is one piece of good news that came out of yesterday is that support levels have been tested and have held for now. We can see that the uptrend in the technology ETF ($XLK) held its uptrend.

Technology

MasterCard

While stocks like Mastercard, which got slammed, are still within its trading channel.

mastercard

Amazon

Amazon stayed above its support level too.

amazon

Micron

While Micron found support at a gap which has now been filled circled below.

micron

The rotation is still on, for now…

 

Free Articles Written By Mike: 

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Why Disney and Comcast Should Fear Netflix

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Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own shares of NFLX, MA, GOOGL

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2017 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #banks #technology #industrials #tax #reform #fedex #ups #citigroup #amazon #micron #mastercard

 

 

Tech banks tax reform

Tech Wreck V2.5 – Tech Smashed as Banks Rally On Tax Reform

Tech Wreck V2.5 – Tech Smashed as Banks Rally On Tax Reform

We have seen this story before, haven’t we? Tech gets smashed in one day, falling by 1 to 2 percent. It happened a number of times over the summer.

So how does it work, somebody wakes up one morning and says “I think we oughta sell Tech today.” I mean really, what changed in such a significant way that technology sold off so hard, driving the Nasdaq composite down by 1.25 percent? Autodesk ($ADSK)? Don’t think so, a company that makes $2 billion sales isn’t big enough to take a down group.

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^IXIC Chart

^IXIC data by YCharts

Today’s sell-off in Tech started yesterday as we noted the weakness in some the leading technology names, despite a sharp rise in the S&P 500. As we have noted many times before, the technology sector had become overextended, as evidence of the XLK ETF.  We had feared a sell-off, but like everyone gave into temptation that trend had merely shifted. To this point, the XLK is still holding the makings of this new trend, but it will be interesting to see how the market responds to today’s sell-off when trading continues tomorrow.

Tech Names Crushed

You name it, crushed, Nvidia, Tesla, Netflix, Micron, and Facebook were among the hardest hit, all  declining by 4 percent or more.

NVDA Price Chart

NVDA Price data by YCharts


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Why The S&P500 Could Melt-Up Into Year End

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 Rotation In To Banks

For today at least the money that moved out of technology and went right into financials, and the good news is that the money is not leaving equities, merely rotating. Banks are rising as a play on tax reform, not a rise on anything else. Because the banks happen to pay some the highest effective tax rates, at nearly 30 percent.

JPM Effective Tax Rate (TTM) Chart banks

JPM Effective Tax Rate (TTM) data by YCharts

Tax Reform Plays

Disney and Starbucks are another two examples of stocks with high effective tax rates as well.  Companies with high effective tax rates are going to be part of this rotation, and it is likely to continue.

Does it mean the sell-off will continue to come at the expense of Tech? Perhaps, tomorrow will be telling. If the sell-off in tech resumes tomorrow, the XLK could fall another 5 percent to around $60.50.

Free Articles Written By Mike: 

Why Roku’s Rocketing Stock May Flame Out

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Macy’s, JC Penney Face More Declines, Options Trades Suggest

Why Tesla’s Plunging Stock Price Conceals A Bright Future

Why Disney and Comcast Should Fear Netflix

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Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own shares of NFLX, GOOGL, TSlA, SBUX and DIS

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2017 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #banks #technology #nasdaq #tax #reform #disney #starbucks #netflix #tesla

 

 

 

S&P 500 Racing Ahead

Banks And Discretionary Stocks Lead S&P 500 Higher In Race To 2,700

Banks And Discretionary Stocks Lead S&P 500 Higher In Race To 2,700

Do you believe? It would seem this market still has another leg left to go higher, with the push to 2,700 officially on.  We opined last week that hedge fund underperformance coupled with a pullback that was shallower than expected could lead to a market melt-up over the final 5 weeks of the year. It would seem that push is happening, with an S&P 500 up by nearly 1 percent, closing right around 2,627, 73 points, less than 3 percent from 2,700.

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Today’s rally was undoubtedly not tech or biotech led either, a positive. It means the market is starting to broaden out, and buyers are finding opportunities in other sectors.  It would help to explain why the Nasdaq Composit was up only 35 bps on the day.

Biotech

The Nasdaq Biotech ETF ($IBB) is up just 15 bps and is sitting at $311; the poor performance is partially tied to Regeneron ($REGN), which is trading down over 2 percent on the day. Regeneron carries a 6 percent weighting in the ETF and is the 5th largest component.

The good news for the group is that the ETF continues hold, and a rally from here is likely coming.

Biotech


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Why The S&P500 Could Melt-Up Into Year End

S&P 500 Breakout- 2700?

Nailing The Biotech Breakout

 


 Technology

Surprisingly technology stocks performed poorly by today’s standards, with the Technology ETF ($XLK) up about 25 bps, with the ETF now at $64.70. Apple ($AAPL), Facebook ($FB) and Alphabet ($GOOGL) are three notable laggers; all three are DOWN on the day. High flying Nvidia ($NVDA) is also down on the day, as well as Broadcom ($AVGO).  Nvidia broke a trendline today, probably not catastrophic, but it could mean more selling is on the way.

NVIDIA

Perhaps, some profit taking? There is no doubt that all of the stocks mentioned above are some of the best performing names in the market this year, and it is profit taking season.

NVDA Chart

NVDA data by YCharts

Consumer Discretionary Stocks

Netflix ($NFLX), a consumer discretionary stock, is up by 2 percent and is helping to lead the group higher which is a good reason why the Consumer Discretionary ($XLY) is up over 1 percent trading at nearly $96, we noted the setup for the breakout back on November 10.

Consumer Discretionary

Financials

The Financial ETF ($XLF) rallied by over 2.5 percent today. The bank stocks have been a terrible call all year on my part, every time I think I have it figured out, the opposite happens. The Fed appears to continue to be on pace to keep hiking rates, which is optically considered as a positive for banks because interest income should climb. But remember banks borrow short and lend long, and while the short-end of the curve has been rising all-year, the long-end has not. This is causing the yield curve to contract or flatten. The banks need a round of inflation to get the long-end rising again; otherwise, I’m just not a believer in the banks.  We can see the ETF stopped rising right at resistance today.

But what do I know, I haven’t gotten it right all year.

financials banks stocks

Good Night

Free Articles Written By Mike: 

Why Roku’s Rocketing Stock May Flame Out

Verizon’s Stock May Rise More Than 15% in 2018

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AMD May Have Bottomed, Stock Set to Rise

Macy’s, JC Penney Face More Declines, Options Trades Suggest

Why Tesla’s Plunging Stock Price Conceals A Bright Future

Why Disney and Comcast Should Fear Netflix

We offer a lot of great commentaries all week talking about the major and relevant market events. Be sure to subscribe to get all our free commentaries sent directly to your inbox or follow us on Twitter.

-OR-

Photo Credit Via Flickr

Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own shares of GOOGL and NFLX

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2017 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #biotech #technology #stocks #sp500 #banks #consumer #discretionary #performance #investing

 

Banks And Inflation Will Be In Focus This Week

Banks

The calendar is heating up this month, and just because it is summertime doesn’t mean the market stops either. This week kicks off earnings, and we get some key inflation data at the end of the week as well.

The earnings kick-off with JP Morgan (JPM), Citigroup (C), PNC Financial (PNC), and Wells Fargo (WFC) all reporting on Friday.


BANK EPS and Revenue Estimates, Citigroup, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, PNC, Stock, wfc, jpm, c, pnc

Estimates Provided By YCharts

One reason we care about the Banks is they caught a bid in recent weeks as rates on the long-end of the curve have started creeping up. We want to see that higher momentum continue and see what kind of commentary they give us on the state of the overall economy.
XLF Chart

XLF data by YCharts

Read The Mott Capital Second Quarter Letter

Ten-Year Rates

We can see rates have moved subnationally higher over the last couple of weeks.
^TNX Chart

^TNX data by YCharts

So much for the flattening yield curve stupidity….
10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread Chart

10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread data by YCharts

Inflation

As for the inflation side of the equation, that data comes at the end of the week with PPI Thursday, July 13, and CPI on Friday, July 14. As if that wasn’t enough, we get to see retail sales and Industrial Production too.

PPI vs. WTI OIl
Of course, if you want to know where PPI and CPI are going just follow oil.

CPI Vs. WTI OIl

Which way you do you think CPI and PPI will be this month? My guess, lower than last month.

Enjoy your week.

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Disclaimer

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendation made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

#Banks #Inflation #Rates #Earnings