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The Stock Market Faces A Critical Test The Week of April 23

The Stock Market Faces A Critical Test The Week of April 23

The Stock Market Faces A Critical Test The Week of April 23

Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own shares of NXPI, V, and SBUX

The week of April 23 will be a big week for earnings, and I already highlighted in my five predictions for earnings the outlooks for AMD, Alphabet, Microsoft, Facebook, and Amazon. But there are plenty of others such as Intel, Qualcomm, PayPal, Visa, Ford, General Motors, Starbucks, Exact Sciences, and the big Oil companies Exxon and Chevron.


Earnings Outlook

Yes, earnings do matter, and more important will be those outlooks for the coming quarters. According to data from Dow Jones S&P Indices, earnings are expected to climb by 40 percent in 2018 to $153,90 from $109.58  in 2017, that is a massive rise in profits, for one-year, and that leaves the S&P 500 trading at 17.35 times 2018 estimates. Earnings are seen climbing another 10 percent in 2019 to $168.64 and that leaves the S&P 500 trading at 15.8 times 2019 estimates. What do you think happens to those estimates should earnings be better than expected? That is right, full-year numbers come up; if they are weaker than predicted those estimates come down. In both cases, we find out stocks are cheaper than or more expensive than we thought. So how big are earnings and the outlooks? Very big.

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Chips

Semiconductors have been hammered over the past week, and with Intel, Texas Instruments, and Qualcomm reporting we are going to get a perfect sense if Taiwan Semi was a one-off, or if there is more pain in the group to come.

 

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Intel

Intel has been trending higher, and the relative strength index looks like a loaded coil, ready to pop. Meanwhile, the trend is overwhelmingly bullish, and that makes me think the stock pops higher.


Qualcomm/NXP

Qualcomm is near the low-end of the range, and perhaps we get some good news this week on some progress regarding the NXP Semiconductor deal. The NXP deal is a massive deal for Qualcomm and is extremely important to drive future revenue growth for the company.

qualcomm

As a shareholder of NXP, I’d love to get my $127.50 per share, from Qualcomm. But I’m more than okay if they don’t, because I continue to love this company going forward as a standalone, especially when trading 12.5 times next year earnings.


Starbucks

Starbucks has been trending higher, but every quarter has been met with disappointment. It will come down to same-store comps, and growth in China this quarter.

Despite all the headwinds this company has faced, an all-time is within reach.

 


Exact Sciences

Although my trading channel may be to narrow, the direction of the trend seems to be one way.


PayPal

The trend in PayPal is lower at this point, and the RSI is trending that way as well. Support at $73 is extremely important in this case, should PayPal fall.


Visa

Visa has been in a channel now for some time, and it appears shares and the RSI have both broken out from a downtrend, with a positive setup in place.

visa

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Exxon

Exxon shares can’t get out of a long-term downtrend, and while support at $72 held, this stock is not going anywhere until it breaks above that downtrend.

xom


Chevron

Chevron may have room to rise towards $135.

chevron

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Ford

I think the Ford chart is self-explanatory.

That is gonna be it. Good Luck

 

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #stockmarket #sp500 #amazon #facebook #amd #alphabet #microsoft #earnings

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5 Monster Stock Predictions For Earnings During The Week of April 23

5 Monster Stock Predictions For Earnings During The Week of April 23

5 Monster Stock Predictions For Earnings During The Week of April 23

Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own shares of GOOGL

With earnings seasons underway, the intensity picks up in a big way this coming week, with Alphabet kicking things off this Monday afternoon, and then companies like AMD, Qualcomm, Facebook, PayPal, Amazon, Microsoft, and Intel later in the week. I have highlighted and attempted to predict the direction of the stocks following results, for five stocks, Alphabet, AMD, Facebook, Microsoft, and Amazon. Hope you enjoy, and good luck.

 

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Alphabet

Estimates

Shares of Alphabet have a one-year forward PE ratio of about 22, putting it among some of the cheapest technology companies. Analysts are looking for the company to report that first-quarter earnings fell by 7 percent to $9.28 per share, while revenue is expected to climb by over 22 percent to $30.26 billion. Revenue estimates have been creeping up since the start of the year, from $29.43 billion, according to Ycharts, a rise of 1.78 percent.

Options

The long straddle options strategy for expiration on May 18, are not pricing in a massive move in Alphabet shares, a rise or fall of only 7 percent, placing the stock in a trading range of about $1000 to $1150 from the 1,075 strike price.

The implied volatility is currently around 47, and that suggests a one standard deviation move of about of 6.5 percent, so again not a huge move.

Technicals

The technical’s are sending mixed signals, but that seems to be the case with every stock chart these days. The stock price recently filled a gap at $1,096 but failed to break above that resistance level. But there is a clear uptrend in the chart currently, and the $1,000 level acted as a firm support level during a time that saw very high volume levels. Additionally, it is clear that volume declined as the stock settled in around $1,000 support, which would suggest that selling pressure was easing, resulting in the stock move higher. Additionally, the relative strength index (RSI) reached an oversold condition in mid-February, and that lead to an RSI that is rising and trending higher, while the downtrend in the RSI had been broken.

googl

Price Target

The average analyst price target would suggest a rise of about 17 percent, to $1275.

The underlying technicals are bullish; the options market seems not to be looking for a big move in shares of Alphabet either, which likely implies no big surprises, while analyst trends in revenue and earnings have been relatively steady.

It would seem to suggest to me that the market is set for shares of Alphabet to rise post-earnings.

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AMD

Estimates

AMD is expected to report on April 25, and analysts estimates are expecting revenue to rise by 59 percent to $1.566 billion, while earnings are forecast to be flat at $0.09 per share. That doesn’t give me a warm and fuzzy feeling. It would suggest two things going into these results, a risk of a significant miss or a significant beat. But based on the latest set of results from Lam Research and Taiwan Semi, it makes me a little bit concerned for a miss; there seem to be a tremendous amount of operational risk here such as declining margins, or revenue falling short.

Options

The options market appears to agree, because the long straddle options strategy is pricing in a rise or fall for the stock of 13.7 percent by expiration on May 18, from the $10 strike price. It places the stock in a trading range of $8.65 to $11.35.  The puts at the $10 strike price out weight the call by a ratio of nearly 2:1 with 51,000 open put contracts to approximately 25,000 call contracts, again a bearish indication.

The term structure of the implied volatility implies a tremendous amount of volatility too. The near-term options have an implied volatility level over 90 over the next seven days, and that also means a rise or fall in the stock about 12.5 percent.

Technicals

The technical chart is also bearish at this point, with a clear downtrend in place, while failing at resistance at $10.70. The RSI is also trending lower, while volume levels have yet to reach a capitulation type of moment.  Should the stock rise on better than expected results a jump to $11.70 seems possible, while bad results could see the stock fall to early April lows around $9.

Analyst Price Targets

The average price target on the stock has been trimmed since the start of the year falling to $13.77 down from $14.04, a decline of nearly 2 percent. Meanwhile, of the 31 analysts that cover the stock 35 percent rate the stock a “buy” or “outperform,” while 45 percent rate it a “hold,” and 19 percent rating it an “underperform” or “sell.”

All of these signals appear to be negative and suggest the market seems setup for shares to fall post results.


Facebook

Facebook’s results are going to be huge, as investors await commentary on the fall out from the Cambridge Analytica data scandal.

Estimates

Analysts are looking for Facebook to report that earnings fell by 1.75 percent to $1.34 in the first-quarter, while revenue is seen rising 42 percent to $11.42 billion. Facebook naturally will significant expenses in the future when it comes to putting more staff in place to better monitor what is happening on its platform. In fact, analysts have trimmed their earnings results for the quarter from $1.38 per share since March 19.

Options

The options market has an implied volatility of roughly 55 percent, and that suggests a one standard deviation move of about 7.6 percent, putting the stock in a trading range of $153 to $179.

Technicals

The technical chart still has a solid downtrend in place, but the big volume levels in the stock around $150, also suggest a current floor in the stock. The RSI also hit oversold levels at the end of the March, but, it too still has a solid downtrend in place.

facebook

Other Factors

Rising cost continues to be a significant issue for Facebook going forward, while it is also unclear how users are responding, and the overhang of potential regulatory issues loom.

It would not be surprising to see a retest of the $150 lows following results.


Microsoft

Estimates

Analysts estimates see Microsoft earnings climbing by 16.5 percent when it reports fiscal third-quarter results to $0.85, while revenue is seen jumping by only 9.5 percent. Analysts are bullish on Microsoft and have been raising their price target on the stock since the start of the year, pushing the price target to $105.71, up by 13.15 percent since January 5, from roughly $93.40.

Options

The options market is not implying a big move in shares of Microsoft post results, with an implied volatility of roughly 44 percent. It represents a rise or fall of 6 percent. The $95 Calls set for expiration on May 18 outweigh the puts by a ratio of 9 to 1, with almost 39,000 open call options versus 4,000 put contracts. The number of open call contracts is a sizeable dollar bet at that strike price worth nearly $11.8 million.

Technicals

The chart is sending bearish indications, with an RSI trending lower and falling volume levels as the stock price continues to rise, two bearish divergences. Meanwhile, the long-term trend is higher though, and that is a still a bullish signal.

The options market and analysts price target are both overwhelming bullish, and with such a big jump in revenue during the quarter, it may not be too hard for the company to top earnings estimates. The real test will come should shares be able to breakout technically and rise above $97. Be mindful of a gap higher following results, only for that gap to be refilled.

microsoft


Amazon

Estimates

Amazon’s stock is up nearly 31 percent on the year and has been among the best-performing stocks in the market. Analysts estimates are looking for revenue to have climbed by 41 percent, to $49.92 billion, while earnings are seen falling by nearly 18 percent to $1.22 per share. Amazon has a history of being incredibly inconsistent when reporting earnings, with either big beats or significant misses. It all comes down to how much the company is investing in R&D and such during the quarter.

Options

The implied volatility is at 61 percent, and that means shares could rise or fall by 8.5 percent, putting the stock in a trading range between $1398 and $1656. The options set to expire on May 18 at the at the $1530 strike price have put to call ratio of about 1:1, with 4,900 open call contracts to 4,500 open put contracts.

Technicals

There is a long-term uptrend in the stock, but the RSI has turned bearish, with the RSI trending lower. There was a significant surge in volume when shares reached $1360, and that would seem to be strong support for now. But with the divergence in the stock price and the RSI, it would suggest that shares still have further to fall, after results.

amazon

Hope you enjoyed the 5 predictions for earnings for the coming week.

-Mike

 

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #stockmarket #sp500 #amazon #facebook #amd #alphabet #microsoft #earnings

stock market transition

The Stock Market May Be In The Middle Of A Major Transition


The Stock Market May Be In The Middle Of A Major Transition

It feels as though the dynamics of the stock market may be changing. Although I can’t say it for sure yet, I feel like the more companies I research and watch, the more reasons I find for stocks to move lower, rather than to rise. The charts are also not looking solid in many cases, and that would suggest to me the market may be going through a transition currently. I will continue to think on this and report back as I find more evidence to support this theory. The market could be transitioning more to a stock specific market and less of a sector related market.

Mott Capital Management, Michael Kramer

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S&P 500

The S&P 500 continues to fail around 2,660, and I’m not sure what that means at this point, other than it being a negative sign.

spx

 

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Technology

The technology XLK also failed to continue its rise from yesterday, falling below $66.

xlk


Facebook

But again, Facebook continues to rise closing above $166. The stock may continue to work higher from here.

facebook

Amazon

But Amazon continues to struggle, at $1,440. I drew in new downtrend today as well. For a stock that is set up to report results in the next couple of weeks, the stock is not acting like results will be strong. It seems like the direction could change with a just a mere tweet though. But the longer it stays below $1440, the more the odds of decline further are.

amazon


Netflix

Netflix got a bunch of price target increases ahead of Monday’s results. Cowen went to $350 from $275, Goldman going to $360 from $315, Raymond James going to $330 from $290. Shares were up most of the day but gave back some going into the end of the day.

The longer-term pattern in the stock chart continues to be bullish, and a breakout could come after results, with a rise back into the $330.  I wrote up my outlook for the stock over the weekend.

netflix

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Sectors

The Consumer stocks failed at resistance today, and as long Amazon is stock is struggling the ETF will go nowhere. Amazon has an enormous 20 percent weighting in the ETF, with Home Depot being the second largest at 7 percent!.

Right now, it feels like there a bunch of mixed signals taking place in the market. Biotech stocks continue to struggle. Financials have a big day coming Friday, while Materials don’t look particularly strong either.

But the good news is that the 10-year continues to trend lower, and is currently at 2.79 percent, while the dollar remains relatively unchanged.


Stock Specific

Earnings will need to be better than expected to get the whole market moving higher. Otherwise, it is starting to look a market that is going to be stock specific. We’ll see how things come together over the next week or so.

Good Luck!

Mike

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Michael Kramer and Clients of Mott capital own shares of NFLX

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #stockmarket #sp500 #amazon #facebook #technology 

stock market biotech

Stocks Rip Higher, Plus A Look At The Baker Brothers Top 5 Holdings


Stocks Rip Higher, Plus A Look At The Baker Brothers Top 5 Holdings

This stock market is getting frustrating. Yeah, I know the S&P 500 was up by 1.6 percent on the day, but the problem is that it closed at 2,656. In the midday commentary, I noted I was looking for a close above 2,660. I know it is only 4 points too but look at the trend line in the chart below.

S&P 500

 

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Technology

But here is the good news, the technology ETF, XLK broke above $66, and closed above $66. That is a victory! We can see that the XLK broke out on Apri 4, then retested the downtrend on April 6, and we have been higher since. If the breakout is for real, the the XLK could be on its way back to over $67. In fact, should the bulls juice get flowing, then a rise to $70 could be a genuine possibility.

techology

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Facebook

The majority of the XLK breakout should be to Facebook, finally rising above $161.5, after multiple failed its attempts. I’m guessing the market liked the testimony Mark Zuckerberg had to offer Congress. $166 will be a big test of how strong resistance is there.

facebook

JP Morgan

But not was all fabulous, because JP Morgan is still around $112.50, unable to break out, and earnings coming on Friday morning.

jpm


Amazon

Amazon tried to get above $1440 and is still cannot.

amazon


Biotech

Even biotechs had a healthy day, with the IBB rising by nearly 3 percent. It also broke out of that terrible downtrend it had been in since mid-March. That looks like a sextuple bottom in the IBB. Is there even such a thing? To my knowledge no, but there it is.

ibb

Biogen shares still look lousy.

biogen

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Baker Brothers

Even the Baker Brother’s top holdings are starting to go back up, barely. Their top holdings have performed lousy for some time as if some more prominent investors are betting against them, trying to keeping these stock down. Is that even possible? Look though. \

Alexion

Look at Alexion despite, the positive trial results, and a bunch of analysts upgrades this thing still can going. The average analyst price target on Ycharts is $158, 40 percent upside! What gives?

alexion


Incyte

Even Incyte bounced a bit today; it has been smoked since the negative trial results. This stock was once $150, over a year ago. Remember this was thought to be a buyout candidate back then.

incyte

Well BioMarin, not much to say here, but then again it has been that way for 2 years!

bmrn


S-GEN

The Seattle Genetics chart is not looking so hot, let’s say it is a tipping point and looks bearish.

sgen


Acadia

Finally Acadia, maybe, just maybe, the stock has puked out all the garbage and negativity, maybe. Thanks, CNN you did more damage than any sell-side analyst could have done.  Forget about filling gaps, let’s just get the stock stabilized, and hope the article didn’t destroy future sales. acadia

That’s it

Mike

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Michael Kramer and Clients of Mott capital own shares of ACAD

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #stockmarket #bakerbrothers #acadia #biotech #alexion #technology #amazon #incyte #facebook  

stock market rally

Stock Market Sees Big Rally, This Time It Maybe For Real


Stock Market Sees Big Rally, This Time It Maybe For Real

I think it is time for the overnight equity future traders, to hang up the cleats and put the jersey away and call it a career. Either that or the Algo’s need some severe tweaking for the keywords they are searching in the headlines. It seems the direction of the futures on these big down days should not be trusted and should be treated as suspect.

But the clues were all around us before the first tick took place that the sell-off would not last.

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Clue #1 – China

The first clue, the Shanghai Composite last night hardly budged on the news of the new tariffs. In fact, the algo’s in China appears to play the same game of fill the gap, as our algo’s. Are the duties imposed by China, and those imposed by the US only detrimental to the US economy, and immune to China? Of course not.

shanghai

 

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Clue #2 -S&P Futures Trader Wins Big, The Rest Should Go Home

Clue #2 came around 7 am when a huge block went off in the S&P 500 futures. Pretty much near the lows, and the rest was pretty much history. This same “institution, trader” has now pulled off a similar trade a few times since the February lows, and each time the market has rallied. My guess is that it is the same institution because it has happened around the same time of the day on each occurrence.

S&P 500

I even posted a tweet about it, as soon I saw it!

Technology

Remember I said I wasn’t getting fooled on the next rally until I saw the XLK breakout, well today it did!

technology

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S&P 500

The S&P 500 broke out above two downtrends. The next test comes around 2,675, then 2,690.

S&P 500 stock market


Google

Google broke out too, a rebound back to 1,080 could be on the way.

google stock market

Facebook

Facebook has seen $151 hold like a rock on multiple occasions, I still think it moves up to $166.

facebook

Intel

Intel bounced right off support and looks like it going over $50.

intel


Micron

Micron broke out too and is likely turning back towards $56.

micron

 

 

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Tesla

While the Tesla bears had their moment of glory, and just like that, it’ is gone. Sorry guys, hope you enjoyed it. tesla

Remember to watch out for those future traders tomorrow morning, but at least the next time you will be looking for confirmation in other markets.

Good Luck!

Mike

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Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets – An In-depth Global Macro Stock Market Commentary – In Video Format – See How Michael Dissects The Markets

Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #tech #technology #facebook #google #tesla #micron #intel #futures #equities #stocks

 

 

 

 

Stock Market Volatility May Soon Fade Away


Stock Market Volatility May Soon Fade Away

I wrote in the midday commentary that for the morning rally to have any legs the S&P 500 need to rise above 2,610 and the XLY to rise above $99.40, and we got both going into the close, with the S&P 500 closing at 2,614, and the XLY closing at $99.68.

 

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The big breakout came in the final hour of the day, as sentiment changed when Bloomberg reported the White House isn’t taking steps to take action against Amazon, the market started ripping higher. The S&P 500 passed the crucial first test, rising above a downtrend and support which converged at 2,600. The next test comes at 2,633, but first, the S&P 500 will need to stay above 2,600.

S&P 500

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Technology

Unlike last week, I am not getting duped by the market again, until I get a confirmation breakout in the Technology ETF, XLK. That breakout has not occurred yet, and if it should come tomorrow a rise above $65.50 will be needed.

technology

Facebook tested the lows of last week, held, and rebounded.

facebook

Alphabet shares continue to hold the $1,000 level. Did shares breakout again today, or do I have to redraw my line?

google

Tesla

Tesla reported good delivery numbers today and got pretty close to that guidance target, much better than the bears had been hoping for. But I think the critical piece is that company is still saying it will not need to raise any capital this year. Well see about that, part, but for now, the stock could move back into the $300’s.

tesla

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VIX

The VIX continues to move lower, and I’m beginning to think the reason why it hasn’t elevated to higher levels, for the most, the traders do not believe this volatility will last.

vix

S&P 500 put volume hasn’t been all that elevated, in fact, it appears relatively in line with the past year, except for the one spike in February.

SPX Put Volume Chart

SPX Put Volume data by YCharts

The put to call ratio in the S&P 500, isn’t even high or outside of the what appears to be normal levels over the past year.

SPX Put/Call Ratio Chart

SPX Put/Call Ratio data by YCharts

It would suggest that all this craziness something that may be coming to any relatively soon.  Tomorrow will give us a good clue as to whether that is the case or not.

Good Luck

-Mike

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© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #tech #technology #facebook #google #netflix #vix #tesla

stock market

Tomorrow Is An Extremely Important Day For The Stock Market


Tomorrow Is An Extremely Important Day For The Stock Market

Starting today, I am experimenting with a mid-day trading update. It will be a quick snapshot of the days market action, and a couple of things I’m watching.  For now, the only way to get sent it directly to you will be through push notification. If it proves to be successful and worthwhile, I will them institute a mailing list.

 

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The Stock Market Continues To Slide

The stock market continues its wild ride, and there is no telling when this roller coaster will end. I was fooled into thinking that the stock market may have bottomed last week. The signs were there, but the market had a different viewpoint today. The S&P 500 got to within 20 or so point of the February lows, and that makes tomorrows trading action extremely important. If we go below that 2,530 level, I will become much more fearful of additionally declines.

S&P 500

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Watch our latest premium video, and let Mike show you exactly what he is watching and seeing take place in the stock market: What Is Going On With The Stock Market! It Is Insanity!

Technology

The XLK may be the most important of the charts to watch, because what was obvious, and something I missed, was the fact that XLK never broke out Thursday, and that should have been my clue. I think any market rally, for now, is suspect until the XLK can breakout.

technology


VIX

The VIX continues to stay around 25 or below, and every attempt in the VIX to rise past resistance has failed. I can’t seem to understand why the VIX is not increasing more sharply, in this market turmoil. Watch the VIX, closely.

vix


Facebook

Here is a positive development today, Facebook didn’t retrace to its previous lows.

facebook

Google

Google also held its previous lows as well, around 1,000.

google

Netflix

Netflix too.

netflix

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Amazon

Amazon is the only chart that looks to be getting weaker, and I continue to think the selling isn’t complete. I still see a price below $1300

amazon

Micron

Micron stopped at $49.75. It was a level we had been watching, but again I got faked out on Thursday. So let’s see if Micron can get above $52.25, that will be the real test.

amzn


Boeing

Boeing chart is completely broken, a decline to $297 seems in order.

ba

Caterpillar

Caterpillar broke some critical support as well.

cat

Honeywell

Even mighty Honeywell is looking vulnerable here.

honeywellTomorrow becomes a critical trading session for the stock market.

Good Luck!

-Mike

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

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8 Stocks and 3 Sectors To Watch For The Week Of April 2!


8 Stocks and 3 Sectors To Watch For The Week Of April 2!

The first quarter ended on a positive note, with the S&P 500 finishing Thursday higher by about 1.4 percent. It appears for now that a double bottom has been put into place on the index when looking at the intraday charts, and we are going to want to see the momentum carry through on Monday morning.

 

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spx

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Sectors To Watch:

Technology

The technology ETF ($XLK) managed to finish just below its uptrend line, which again is disappointing, but still, the overall longer-term trend continues to be higher. We need to watch for the XLK to continue to hold the longer-term uptrend, currently around $64. That is the most important level to watch.

technology


Biotech

Biotech continues along its upward trend as well, that has been in place since last year. Additionally, a symmetrical triangle appears to be forming, and that could be a sign the group is gearing up for a break out at some point in the second-quarter, and perhaps a strong second-half of 2018.

biotech


Semis

The semiconductors continue to look strong as well and are entrenched in an upward direction as well.

semiconductors

Stocks To Watch:

Facebook

Facebook is still the stock to watch in this market, and for now, the trend in Facebook is higher, and like the broader S&P 5oo, it appears a double pattern is in place, and that is good. A big test comes at $166, that is the next resistance level.

Facebook


Google

Google managed to clear two downtrends on Thursday, and that is a positive. $1078 is the next level to watch.

google

Amazon

Amazon has a big gap to fill back at $1,500, so look for a rise. But should Amazon fail at $1,500, I think it moves lower, towards $1250.

amazon

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Netflix

Netflix closed right at resistance around $295. Which way does it go? I think it goes higher, especially as the earnings preview notes start coming out.

netflix

AMD

AMD found a nice bounce off of support at $9.80, a bounce to $10.70 is the next level to watch.

amd


Micron

Micron also managed to turn higher around support at $52.25, and an increase to $55.60 is the next level to watch over the short-term.

mu

Twitter

Twitter filled the giant gap last week, and that means you should watch for the stock to start working higher, the next big test comes at $36.75

twitter

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Tesla

It doesn’t get any bigger than Tesla this week, with first quarter delivery numbers, and of course the Model 3 ramp update. The Bloomberg Model 3 shows Tesla trending towards producing about 2,200 cars per week. While the company also registered about 2,050 VIN’s in a seven day period through March 30. My gut says the press release reads something like, “In the final few days of the quarter, Tesla was producing cars at a rate that would equal 2,500 Model 3’s per week”.

The stock found a very big bounce off of it long-term support around $245, and that means the next test comes around $290. Watch for a bounce this week, if those Model 3 numbers come around 2,500. We should know our answer no later than after the close of trading on April 3.

tesla

Good Luck!

-Mike

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Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own TSLA, NFLX, GOOGL

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© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #tech #technology #semiconductors #biotech #micron #tesla #amazon #facebook #google #amd #netflix #twitter

stock market amazon facebook twitter roku breakouts

The Stock Market Breaks Out, Is The Bottom Now In Place?


The Stock Market Breaks Out, Is The Bottom Now In Place?

We made it, the week, the month, and the quarter are all concluding together, and it couldn’t have come at a better time. The stock market is in rally mode, with the S&P 500 up about 1.7 percent as of 2:45, and the NASDAQ up about 2.1 percent. A strong rally and signs suggest stocks should continue to work higher.

Unlike Monday’s sharp rally, this rally comes after a close retest of the lows from March 23, around 2,600. Additionally, the S&P 500 was able to break free of resistance around 2,633, with a rise of above 2,647 giving me the sense we could make a move towards 2,691 come early next week.

S&P 500

 

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Vix

Look at the VIX fail at resistance.

vix

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Facebook

As I noted yesterday, signs were emerging that Facebook was bottoming, and today’s sharp rally confirms that bottom for now. In fact, shares have risen to $160, and the next stop will likely come around $166.


Alphabet

Google shares are also rising sharply today, after bottoming yesterday as well. The positive setup comes as the stock breaks the nearly two-week long downtrend. I think a rise towards $1080 is in the works.

google

Netflix

Netflix held above $273, and again crossed over $287, I’m looking for a rise of over $305 for now.

netflix

Amazon

Amazon is back above $1440, and a move back to $1500 seems possible over the short-term, but I think longer-term the stock still has plenty of downside risk.

amazon


Micron

Micron is struggling to get back over $52.25, But I think it does. The gap has been refilled, and the lower volume levels suggest to me that the selling pressure is waning. I think it has a chance to get to $56.

micron

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Biotech

Even biotechs are breaking out, look at the IBB rising above $107, we could be heading back to $111.50. That is a beautiful “W” in the chart

biotech

Biogen

Biogen is rallying, but I wouldn’t touch this thing unless it gets over $282.

biogen


Celgene

Is Celgene finally breaking out? Oh, do I hope so. I have been wrong time and time again with this.

 

celgene

Roku

I don’t think Roku is done falling. But borrow rate is down to 64 percent.

roku

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Twitter

Twitter managed to come all the way back to $27.25 and is now beginning to work higher. Look at that huge gap that just got filled.  It looks to be a nice setup.

twitter

Till Tomorrow.

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© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #tech #technology #amazon #vix #facebook #apple #google #biotech #futures #yen #euro #dollar #nvidia #mu #netflix #twitter #roku

stock market

It Is Now Crystal Clear Why The Stock Market Is Falling


It Is Now Crystal Clear Why The Stock Market Is Falling

It has been another wild day on Wallstreet, and it is now crystal clear what is going on. This isn’t about trade wars, it isn’t about the Fed, it is a technology-led sell-off of companies that appear to carry stretched valuations. But suddenly signs of separation began to emerge, along with signs of a bottoming for the broader market are being put into place.

 

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Facebook

We can start with the lead culprit, Facebook, which was up today. We can see that Facebook broke its intraday downtrend the other day and then retested all day yesterday. The fact that the downtrend broke, and support around $148-149 has held gives me hope the stock can begin to rebound. The first stop should it rebound is around $166. facebook

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Google

We can see a similar type of pattern in shares of Alphabet, which also managed to finish flat, but hold the $1000 level.

We can see in the chart, the same downtrend was broken, and a retest of that downtrend.

googl

The Technology ETF, XLK, didn’t break a downtrend, but it has continued to hold support and its long-term uptrend.

technology

Nvidia

Nvidia shares are also holding support above $218.

nvidia


Micron

Micron is trying to hold the base of the gap at $52.25. It needs to hold, or we are looking at $49.

micron


Netflix

I have been saying I thought Netflix would go to $295, and it did, and then it went straight to the next level at $287 and held.

nflx

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Tesla

Tesla shares have been crushed, falling to $257! Once the stock broke $290, that was it. You can see it tested $290,  tried to get above $303, and failed, and went straight down from their. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Model 3 Tracker is now trending at 2,000 cars per week. The bears are cheering victory, because they have been right for two days, after being wrong for nearly four years.

tesla

I’m going to try to be as dipolamatic with this as I can be. I have many times shown how Tesla Model S&X demand has been far better than the competition. To this point I see no evidence to suggest the demand has fallen. The delivery reports quarterly, the blogs I read, or the check of the local Tesla dealer. In fact, at least where I live, I still see more Tesla’s on the road, and based on my observations, they have been replacing the other higher end cars.

In term’s of Tesla liquidity, I always knew there was a risk at some point in 2018; Tesla might need to raise capital again. But concerning Tesla going bankrupt in “months” seems far-fetched in my opinion. As my old boss used to say to me: “All you need to do is a push a button, the capital markets are open for business.” And the markets are open for business, and Tesla can access that capital market any time they need.  There plenty of underwriter that would likely love to be lead left on the cover too.  Could Tesla come to market tomorrow and do a $3 billion equity deal, probably. That is why Tesla is a called a “growth” company, they invest heavily in capex and R&D.

Could I be dead wrong, and Tesla just disappears off the face of the earth. I sure can be, but that why investing carries risk, and for that risk, you get paid a return. Based on the trends and growth, and demand, it is a risk at this point I am still willing to take.

 

-Mike

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The Bank Stocks Are Sending A Clear Message About The Stock Market

Why Micron Is A Risky Play

Watch The Dollar, Not Stocks

Why Facebook Has Further To Fall

Previewing Micron And Oracle

Looking At Twitter

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Take-Two Stock Seen Rising 20% on E-Sports Demand

Square’s Soaring Stock Is Due for a Correction

Nike’s Stock Bulls May Get Burned

Why AMD Options Traders Are Bearish Long Term

Improving Earnings Will Push Stock Prices Higher

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Michael kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own TSLA, NFLX, GOOGL

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© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #tech #technology #amazon #vix #facebook #apple #google #biotech #futures #yen #euro #dollar #nvidia #mu #netflix

 

 

The stock market is going down because it is going down

The Stock Market Is Going Down Because It’s Going Down


The Stock Market Is Going Down Because It’s Going Down

I’m struggling to get a handle on what is happening, and the stock market feels more like a casino than anything else. The losses across the market evaporated the gains from yesterday, as technology stocks continue to get hammered. Did the trade war start back up? No.

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Go Take A Walk

When I was walking my dog tonight, the thought came to me, find out when the sell-off started and see what happened on those early days. The beautiful thing about writing this blog, and the member videos, is that it also serves as my notes of things I’m watching. So I came back home, and I looked, the latest wave of selling in the S&P 500 started around March 13 and 14. That was when I started noting about all the stupid upgrades in stocks like Amazon, Micron, and Nvidia, from Amazon conquering the world to Nvidia getting upgrades based on an upcoming movie, and Micron getting upgrades just because it broke the analyst’s previous price targets.  Even MarketWatch.com picked up on my observation.

 

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Air Coming Out?

Perhaps the sell-off is nothing more the air coming out of some these overhyped tech stocks, like Amazon, Micon, Nvidia, etc. Perhaps it is has nothing to do with trade wars or even my stupid theory about the Fed. Maybe it is selling off is because once again too much momentum was built into some of these technology stock and now the air is coming out.

Would you believe that Nvidia even after today’s brutal sell-off is still up since February 8, by 3 percent! While Amazon is up by nearly 11 percent. Microsoft is up 5.5 percent. Microsoft got a lame upgrade yesterday, actually.

NVDA Chart

NVDA data by YCharts

Amazon is still up 28 percent on the year, while Nvidia is still up 16 percent on the Year! Even Microsoft is up almost 5 percent.

NVDA Chart

NVDA data by YCharts

The Nasdaq 100 is up 2 percent on the year!  Geez the S&P 500 is only down 2 percent.

^NDX Chart

^NDX data by YCharts

Micron is up 27 percent on the year! Geez, even Macy’s is up 11 percent on the year. I only know that because I type an M instead of MU in the ticker field.

M Chart

M data by YCharts

 


VIX

Did the VIX break? I keep looking at it but it ain’t going anywhere. How is it only 22.50, what? How can that be, the NASDAQ was down 3 percent, but the VIX hardly moved.

Blame Facebook

The Facebook news stoked the fire and put the sell-off into overdrive.

Nvidia

Today Nvidia reignited the fears after the company said it was suspending the testing of the autonomous vehicle platform. The news broke around 12:15 and then carnage followed. The problem, the negative feedback loop. Nvidia makes up 8 percent of SOXX ETF, so Nvidia goes down, then SOXX ETF goes down, then Soxx ETF starts selling the positions in the portfolio, that puts pressure on the other ETF’s with stocks such as Intel, Broadcom, and so on. This is the one drawback of all the ETFs.

You can see the sell-off rather clearly and when it started, spreading like wildfire.

NVDA Price Chart

NVDA Price data by YCharts

Was it an overreaction, probably. Nvidia gets the majority of revenue from gaming. But the market has high hopes and expectations for data center, while the automotive end of there business has been slow growing. Of the $2.9 billion in revenue they did last quarter, $1.739 billion came from Gaming, $606 million from the data center, and $132 million from automotive.

The stock stopped right at support around $218 and found a bounce, that is the good news.

nvidia


Facebook

Facebook was down hard again today as well, 5 percent. Is Facebook putting in a double bottom? Well, let’s hope so.

facebook

Because the next level is around $138.

facebook

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Micron

Micron shares have now retraced all the way to $52, and have filled a gap. Now that the gap is filled will the bleeding stop? Let’s hope or the stock is going to $49.

mu

S&P 500

The S&P500 manage to at least stay even with the lows from Friday.

spx

I have nothing else to say for today. I need to take a break.  I suggest you do the same.

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Tesla

One comment on Tesla, I do not know how Model 3 production will be or what the burn rate is.  I read the blogs tracking the vins, the Bloomberg model 3 tracker, and I drive through the parking lots of Tesla stores looking for the elusive model 3, making into a game to keep my kids entertained. But if you are betting on Tesla going out of business, then you must also bet that it can’t raise funding through an equity offering. Or that someone like Tencent, who already owns a 5 percent stake, would not just buy them out.

-Mike

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© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

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libor stock market

The 4 Keys To The Stock Market For The Week Of March 26


The 4 Keys To The Stock Market For The Week Of March 26


It will undoubtedly be an interesting week, especially with the quarter end on Thursday, remember the markets are closed on Friday for Good Friday. The Eurekahedge 50, an index that measures the top 50 hedge funds, was up only 1.15 percent for the year at the end of February, and that was trailing the S&P 500 total return index of 1.83 percent. The Eurekahege 50 had a gain of only 6.96 percent in 2017, severely underperforming the S&P 500 total return gain of 21.83 percent. The last things these guys want to show is a big loss for the first quarter. So profit-taking could weigh heavily on some of the more significant gainers this final week, think Amazon, Netflix, Micron, and so on.

 

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Libor

I do not know the exact reason why the market is selling-off, nobody does for sure. But I have laid out the reason I think it is going down in a couple of articles this weekend. I have read in some different place that rising Libor is another source of concern, and yes it has increased a lot in recent weeks, and as of March 23 it stands at 2.29 percent. But the truth is that libor has been rising aggressively since the summer of 2015.

libor

I think the increasing spread between Libor and the Effective Funds Rate and the 3-Month Treasury, is nothing more than the Libor anticipating future rate hikes. In fact, that spread between Libor and Federal Funds Rate, already declined from 0.74 percent on March 15, to 0.61 percent currently, all since the Fed raised the effective funds rate.  Libor sure isn’t going to go down in a rising interest rate environment.

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Earnings

The outlook for earnings continues to be strong, S&P Dow Jones is forecasting earnings for 2018 to climb by 31 percent, and with the S&P at 2,588 as of March 23, it is trading at 17.97 times 2018 estimates of $144.01, and 16.5 times 2019 views of $156.23. I would not call that expensive. In fact, Tech, Consumer, and Healthcare are pretty cheap based on forward earnings estimates.

Fundamentally speaking the market doesn’t look expensive. But with that said, emotions, Algos, and ETF’s do not care about the fundamentals.

Sunday Night

So what will I be watching this week? Well, it starts Sunday at 6 PM EDT, first looking at the currency market and seeing which direction the dollar trades, most notably versus the yen and euro. Remember Japan is an export economy, so a strong yen is bad for Japan’s economy and the stock market, and that means Japan could be down big on Sunday night into Monday. The next thing we want to watch is how Europe trades, followed by the S&P 500 future, and more critical than price, will be the volume in the S&P Futures.

Notice the S&P 500 Future bottomed at 2,531 twice and it happened in the middle of the night, on huge volume! So I want to see if these big buyers come back.

S&P 500 futures

That is all before the market even opens at 9:30 am Monday.


Monday During The Day

During the day Monday, I want to see the VIX spike higher, over 30,  and massive levels of volume in the stock market. And as crazy as this sounds, a 1.5 –  2 percent decline in the morning, followed by a turn in the early afternoon with a strong finish into the close pushing the index to the positive, and ending near the highs of the day.  If this doesn’t happen Monday, then it likely means this is going to drag on for a few more days.

Also, you need to watch the market leaders the most closely during times like this, such as Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Alphabet, Microsoft. But the Banks will be another big group to watch, as well as Biotech. Biotech is the most aggressive part of the stock market in my opinion, and if risk comes back –  it happens in biotech first.

Is it a perfect system? No. But it comes with 25 years of experience at this game, and over the years, I have pieced this all together.

Hope it helps you start off the week.  Good luck.

-Mike

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

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stock market charts predict next

13 Charts That May Predict Where The Stock Market Goes Next


13 Charts That May Predict Where The Stock Market Goes Next

Every chart is broken, that is all I can say, and honestly looking at all of these charts is starting to get confusing. What makes the charts so complicated is that last week most of these very same charts where showing breakouts all over the place. That is what makes the events of the past few days so strange. What seems even more strange is the VIX at 25. The S&P 500 was down 6 percent last week, and the VIX is only at 25?

The term structure of the VIX is still in backwardation.

 

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^VIX Chart

^VIX data by YCharts

The term structure of the SPY ETF options market is normal, and that tells us Volatility is expected to be short-lived.

spy

But at the current levels, the VIX is not high enough to indicate a capitulation type moment, and that has me concerned.


SPY

The volume in the SPY is not even nearly as high as what we saw in early February.

S&P 500

It suggests the selling isn’t over just yet, and that event may come sometime early next week.

When the market is this type of sell mode, fundamental’s mean nothing, because the machines are in control, and for most the part these algo’s are looking for levels.

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Charts

Below I will run through a bunch charts I am watching closely, with the next support levels to watch for are, or levels that need hold.  I’m not saying the stocks go to those prices, I’m just saying this where they might gravitate towards. Also, if they hold it tells us a reversal may be in the works.

Technology ETF

The technology ETF has been entirely smashed and is right on its uptrend. Anyone who reads these columns enough knows these lines on the chart I don’t not change or move, once I have placed them. So the fact that the XLK closed right on the uptrend means something.

Again volume not that impressive in the XLK today either.

technology

Consumers

The same with consumer discretionary stocks.

consumer stocks

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Amazon

Amazon closed right at support around $1500, this is a significant level for Amazon, a break here, and it goes to the low $1,400’s.

amazon

Apple

Apple broke support at $168, it possible for a move to around $159.

apple

Google

Google must hold $1000, or we are going towards $920.

Google


Facebook

Facebook looks like it is going to $148.

facebook

Netflix

Netflix better hold at $295.

nflx

Tesla

Tesla must hold $290

tsla

Micron

Micron may be headed towards $49.

Nvidia

Nvidia..ugh $218???

nvda

More Saturday night into Sunday.

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Michael kramer and the clients of Mott Capital Own shares of NFLX GOOGL and TSLA

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© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #tech #technology #amazon #vix #facebook #apple #google #tesla #nvidia #mu #netflix

 

 

 

 

 

stock market, micron, apple, facebook, amazon, netflix

Why The Stock Market and Micron Went Down, And Where They Go From Here


Why The Stock Market and Micron Went Down, And Where They Go From Here

Trade Wars? Again with this? So lets see $50 billion in tariffs with China? Well, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, and Berkshire lost a total of nearly $81 billion in market cap today. According to data, I compiled from Ycharts, all the stocks that make up the S&P 500 lost a total of $648 billion in market cap today! More than ten times the tariffs. Sorry folks, it was more than tariff concerns.

 

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Look at the banks; the XLF was down over 3.75 percent on the day, the best performing sector the utilities, up about 35 bps. Why? Well because the treasury yield on the 10-year yield has fallen in recent days from roughly 2.91 percent to 2.81 percent, while the two-year yield fell from 2.36 percent to 2.28.  That means the spread of the 10-2 yield is continuing to contract, and when spreads on yields contract that’s bad for banks. Utilities are interest rate sensitive, so when yield falls, the prices on the utilities rise.

But the dollar also continues to trade poorly and doesn’t seem to reflect an overly hawkish Fed either.

So what is going on here today? I don’t know. It appears to be a massive combination of the Facebook issue, the Fed, and a hint of tariffs. But where we go from here is all that matters. The next significant level again comes at 2,633, and I would not be surprised to see the S&P 500 retest the lows from early February.

spx

But tomorrow is Friday, and Friday in the past has seen pretty sharp rallies, we shall see.

Bottom line, I’m trying to figure this all out just like you are! Seriously.

Mott Capital Management, Michael Kramer

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Vix

The vix is also once again in backwardation.

^VIX Chart

^VIX data by YCharts


Micron

Micron is bouncing around after hours, and the outlook is what I wanted to see, and I found it in the prepared remarks. On a non-GAAP basis, the company is looking for revenue at $7.4 billion at the mid-point, with EPS of $2.83, in the fiscal third quarter. Ycharts is showing that analysts had been looking for earnings of $2.67 and revenue of $7.297 billion, which is solid guidance, but not a blowout and that is likely problem #1. But if you look hard enough, I can find one more minor detail that might be what the market is reacting too in the estimates.  The rising expenses.

At the mid-point, we get Revenue of $7.4 billion, gross margins of 58.5 percent, operating expenses of $725 million, and operating income of $3.7 billion. But when start filling in blanks, we get the table below. Notice what happens to operating income if we use the mid-point on all the items above it. It comes at the low end of the companies guidance and results in the operating income and operating margins declining, sequentially.

FQ2’18 FQ3’18
Revenue  $ 7,351.00  $ 7,400.00
COGS  $ 3,055.00  $ 3,071.00
Gross Profit  $ 4,296.00  $ 4,329.00
GP Margin 58.4% 58.5%
Operating EXP  $  (666.00)  $  (725.00)
Operating Income  $ 3,630.00  $ 3,604.00
Operating Margin 49.38% 48.70%

Well see what happens tomorrow. Otherwise I think these numbers are good, and the guidance was solid, but not blow out.

There were nearly 7.6 million shares traded after-hours a healthy dose of volume, and the stock was down to about $56.50 off a close of $58.92. I think there is more downside to go.

Amazon

I think you need to be careful with Amazon if this breaks $1500, I think it will have much further to fall, maybe below $1300.

amazon

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Microsoft

Microsoft is broken now, and the odds of a fall to $84.50 just increased dramatically, and getting back over $91.50 just got that much harder.

microsoft

Facebook

Facebook is hanging by a thread, and should it fall, $148 is next.

facebook


Apple

Apple found a bounce for now at $168.

apple

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Netflix

I still think Netflix is head to $295.

netflix

Night

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Biotech Acadia’s Stock May Double On Sales Spike

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #micron #SP500 #stocks #amazon #apple #netflix #yields #dollar #currency #facebook 

 

 

 

 

 

Facebook Is Getting The Attention But You Should Be Watching The Fed


Facebook Is Getting The Attention But You Should Be Watching The Fed

Facebook is still center stage, and it is likely to remain that way. The good news, the stock found a bounce today, around $162.50. But do not be fooled the stock is still problematic because it is hard to predict what comes next. The news of Cambridge Analytica just does not seem or feel like a one-off event, and it would not surprise me to see it leads to more of these type of things turning up. For that reason, one needs to continue to remain cautious, and now is not the time to play hero, while the leaders of the company have yet to comment. The market has a funny way of bringing things to the surface and forcing the situation, and it could be the case this time too, the market will turn up the heat in the coming days if leadership continue to remain quiet.

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Amazon Now Number 2

Let’s move on, because Amazon became the second most valuable public company behind Apple, passing Alphabet. I guess there is no stopping Amazon. There is no point in doing any analysis or looking at the chart because it just does not matter. Amazon just keeps going up, and to go against it at this point is useless. At this pace, it should pass Apple really soon too.

I mean Goldman has it going to 1,900, easy.  Now nobody can surpass Amazon’s dominance in the cloud. Last week it was 4 straight years of 50 percent growth in advertising leading shares higher, now it is the dominance in the cloud, that even not Microsoft or Google will be able to overthrow. We should face facts, nothing can stand in the way of Amazon quest for Global domination. Soon the World will be too small to contain Amazon and harnassing the power of the Sun, Amazon will spread its reach throughout the Solar System, and the Galaxy. It’s market cap will soar to $1 Googol. Laugh, I’m having fun.

AMZN Market Cap Chart

AMZN Market Cap data by YCharts


Roku

Well, Roku is no longer a compelling short according to Oppenheimer, and it got an upgraded to a “perform” rating from “underperform.” Well, the short seller would still disagree with this because that borrow rate is still an astronomical 83 percent, and that is lower than it was a few days ago when it hit 109 percent on March 14.

Roku

While the implied volatility term structure is still in backwardation, with the market seeing more volatility in the future than the present.

roku

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FOMC

Tomorrow, at for a little bit the focus will move away from Facebook, and the Fed will take center stage, with commentary on the future of interest rate hikes. Yeah, the Fed will probably raise rates by 25 bps, but they say afterward is what matters.

The 3-month Eurodollar Deposit Rate continues to surge higher, it indicates that the cost to borrow dollars outside of the US is continuing to get more expensive, and that is likely because the market is continuing to expect interest rate here in the US to climb. It could also be a sign there is an urge from foreign investors to get there hands on dollars outside of the US, and are willing to pay higher rates to hold on to those Dollars, as a sign some are betting the Dollar’s recent weakness may soon start reversing.

eurodollar rate


Libor

Libor rates reflect the same, which makes sense. But again, it too really surging in a big way in recent weeks. We can see that in the chart below the trend was reasonably consistent, but since the beginning of the year, we can see the rate has started to climb more materially.

libor

In fact, Libor has been rising at a faster pace than the three month Treasury bill recently too, which would seem to suggest that the market is starting to price in the potential for perhaps as many as 4 in 2018, based on the effective fund’s rate of 1.4 percent presently.

I would disagree with the Fed raising rates four times, as I think it would be awful for the economy, and the notion of raising rates to cut them later seems stupid to me. But I’m not even an economist, so…

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Dollar

The dollar will be the thing to watch immediately following the Fed announcement and commentary. We can see in the chart below how stubborn the dollar has been, around 88 on the dollar index.

dollar

The euro has been weakening versus the dollar as well and has been unable to rise above 1.25.

euro

While the yen has even found a floor around 106 to the dollar.

yen

Again, the rising rate to borrow dollars aboard, and the stubbornness of the dollar to continue to fall further suggest a reversal in the dollar is likely on the way, and a more aggressive Fed could be the trigger.

I hope I am wrong because that will likely not be good for stocks over the short-term.

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Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own shares of GOOGL

 

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #facebook #amazon #alphabet #fomc #fed #libor #eurodollar #rates

 

 

facebook, apple, amazon

No Love For Facebook, As Amazon Continues Global Conquest


No Love For Facebook, As Amazon Continues Global Conquest

Well, that came out of left field. I was surprised by the broader market sell-off today. The Facebook sell-off, not so much. Afterall, I wrote on Saturday, that Facebook had been troubled now for some time, and I think this may only be beginning of a further decline.

But the S&P 500 falling by nearly 1.5 percent, what was that about? We stopped going down right our support level at 2,691. As long as the decline does not go lower than the previous drop around 2,660, then the trend is still higher. Albeit directionally it has shifted, but the pattern is what concerns me the most.

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spx

Yields continue to creep lower as well, so indeed no flight to safety in the 10-year treasury market.

yield

The VIX is in backwardation as well, which tell us the volatility is likely not to last much longer.

^VIX Chart

^VIX data by YCharts


Facebook

Facebook was apparently the headliner today, and I went through my thoughts about the event in the premium section, (See: Why Facebook Has Further To Fall), and I also talked about the technical setup in an Investopedia article today, (See: Why Facebook Shares Could Fall 20%). But to be brief, I think there is a real risk to Facebook having some form of regulation being thrown at it, and all the social media companies for that matter. If we use biotech as an example and the overhang drug pricing has had, it could cause investors to be wary of these stocks until it becomes more clear what the outcome is.

The stock closed right at the support level around $172.50, and I think the next stop could be around $166, and potentially all the way down to $148, should the overhang and threat grow.

facebook

Also, eMarketer had an article out today that didn’t get much attention, but it noted that Facebook and Alphabet would capture 56.8 percent of digital ad investment in 2018, but the problem is that will be down from 58.5 percent last year. The article noted that Amazon and Snapchat have seen accelerating growth.


Amazon

Wasn’t it just last week that Jefferies noted, it saw accelerating ad growth as a critical driver for Amazon? Yeah, it was, you think they get their data from the same source?

Then news comes tonight that now Amazon is looking to buy some Toys ‘R Us locations. A purchase of some stores would surely be in an interesting play for Amazon, and I think it changes the playing field again in Amazon’s favor. Should Amazon pursue such a thing, it could acquire some great real estate and would immediately make it an unstoppable force in retail. The store could also serve as a distribution center, making same day delivery or perhaps even 2 hours delivery a genuine possibility. I’d imagine it being something similar to what Costco is currently doing with Instacart. The locations could also serve return centers for those items you do not want to keep.

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Technology

The overall technology ETF ($XLK) doesn’t look too bad. I think it just depends on what path it happens to take. In the worst case scenario, for now, I see downside risk to about $64.75.

technology

Apple

Apple looks pretty solid too…

apple

Ok, that is going to be it for today.

Mike

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #facebook #amazon #apple #technology 

stock market

3 Keys To The Stock Market For The Week Of February 12

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3 Keys To The Stock Market For The Week Of February 12

The week of February 12 will continue to volatile, whether the stock market is going up or going down. The tug of war we saw on Friday, between positive and negative territory will likely continue especially on Monday. But as we wrote yesterday, signs are emerging that a bottom is in the process of being put and place, and there will be some keys to this market that could suggest the worst is over.

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A Line Drawn In The Sand?

 

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Vol

Volatility will obviously be the key to the market, and the VIX and many of the ETF products will be the critical focus. The chart shows how dangerous the inverse VIX ETF products are, below is the SVXY, which has been destroyed.  But more important than prices, we want to see the volume continue to fall back to normal levels.

Here in lies the problem too, and I am shocked when I see products where you can buy volatility on individual stocks, like the VXAZN, and VXAPL, basically betting that vol will rise on Amazon or Apple, these are nothing more than casino like products, betting on volatility rising. 

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Inflation and Yield Watch

The Consumer Price Index reading is coming out this week, and the street is looking for m/m reading of 0.3 percent, and a y/y rise of 2 percent.  We can see that CPI has traced OIL pretty consistently over the past.

CPI

But unfortunately, it also likely means that the inflation reading is likely to come in ahead of expectations. But I will guess that unless it comes in some crazy reading of above 3 percent, I think the market will be calmed, that inflation is not running away, which I don’t think it will do.

For now, over the short-term, if I had to guess, yields are likely done rising for a bit and a retracement back towards 2.6 percent seems in order.

Stock Watch

Watch the leadership in the stock market from stocks like Apple, Alphabet, and Microsoft. These are the leaders in the market, and when times get rocky one wants to see the leaders lead.

Micron could also be a big one to watch during the week, as the company recently pre-released revenue guidance which was higher than expectations. micron

But the market cared not, and if a bounce or even a bounce is attempted, it should be found in companies that continue to beat and raise expectations.

Facebook also has seen its shares fall sharply, and have fallen to levels not seen since the early fall, and for now, have found a meaningful bounce.

The technology ETF (XLK) could also be critical, as that ETF was grossly overbought, and has come down hard. Strength and outperformance would is a big positive.

technology

Good Luck

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #apple #technology #alphabet #micron #facebook #amazon #microsoft #vix #yields #volatilty

 

 

 

 

Looking Ahead To Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook, and AMD Results

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Looking Ahead To Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook, and AMD Results

Earnings take center stage this coming week, and there is no shortage of big companies reporting. In this commentary, we shall focus on AMD, Facebook, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon.

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AMD

AMD will report on Tuesday after the close, and analysts are looking for the company to say fourth-quarter revenue grew by almost 27 percent to $1.401 billion, while earnings were flat vs. last year at $0.05. Earningswhisper.com is looking for the company to beat by a penny, reporting $0.06.

The table below shows how AMD is reasonably consistent and can regularly beat revenue estimates.

amdThe long straddle options strategy is calling for a rise or fall of about 12 percent following AMD’s results. That is because to buy one put and one call set for expiration on February 2 cost about $1.45, using the $13 strike price. But the calls have nearly 8,500 contracts of open interest, vs. only 1,100 puts. Suggesting that more traders are betting on shares of AMD to rise following results.

amd earnings preview

AMD stock is sitting at a critical resistance level at $12.95, with a rise above it taking the shares to about $14.25, refilling nearly a four-month-old gap, created when the company last reported results in October. The relative strength index (RSI) is only around 65 and suggests that the stock is not overbought, and could continue to rise.

 

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Facebook

The next big company to report will be Facebook on Wednesday after the close. Share recently came under pressure, after Mark Zuckerberg noted coming changes to the News Feed, but shares have recouped all of these losses in the past week.  Analysts are looking for revenue to have risen by about 43 percent to $12.55 billion, and earnings to have climbed by about 40 percent to $1.97. Earningswhisper.com is looking for Facebook to beat estimates and report $2.05.

Historically,  Facebook has beaten its earnings estimates, every quarter going back to fourth quarter of 2015.

fbearningsbeat

The options market is looking for only a 6 percent rise or fall after the company reports results. That is because the long straddle options strategy for the $190 strike price cost about $11.10 to buy one put and one call, and that means the stock could trade in a range of about $179 to $201, using the options set to expire on February 2. The open interest heavily favors the calls, with roughly 15,000 contracts compared to puts of only 1,800. It suggests more bets are being placed on shares rising.

The chart is also suggesting shares continue to rise. The stock has recently broken out, with shares rising above resistance around $180. The RSI is also reasonably low only around 60 and suggests shares could continue to increase as well. Additionally, the chart shows there is firm support for the stock just below $180.

fb earnings preview

Microsoft

Microsoft is also set to report on Wednesday after the close and expectations are for the company to report fiscal second-quarter revenue growth of nearly 10 percent to $28.41 billion, while earnings grew by about 3 percent to $0.86. Earningswhisper.com for the company to report earnings of $0.90.

The company has a history of beating earnings estimates in the past as well. microsoft earnings estimates

The $95 option set for expiration on February 2, are implying a move of about 5 percent, with the cost to buy one put and one call being $4.65. That puts the stock in a trading range of roughly $90.50 to $99.70. The number of open puts and calls is insignificant for this expiration date, which suggests the market is not looking for a much of surprise when Microsoft reports.

Microsoft’s chart suggests shares may be overbought at current levels, based on an RSI reading of about 80. Additionally, the RSI has been trending lower, versus the rising stock price, creating a divergent bearish indication. In fact, the RSI peaked back at the end of October, the last time Microsoft reported results, creating a significant gap in the chart.

The first level of support comes around $86. But should $86 fail, the next support region begins at $79, which also fills the gap.

microsoft

Apple

Apple is the headliner for the week, reporting results on Thursday after the close. It is anyone’s guess to how Apple will report results, and more importantly guide the forward quarter. To this point, there has been so much back and forth in the analyst community that it is nearly impossible to tell which side is right. The bear camp believes there is a risk to forward guidance, while the bull’s do not see the same level of concern.

 

While I do not have the same level of access to the supply chain as the analysts, it seems hard to believe the data can be so contrasting from the two sides. But we do know that in the middle of December Jabil and Broadcom issued strong results and substantial forward guidance, while semi-equipment companies ASML and Lam Research, have reported strong results more recently.

But again, the Apple suppliers stocks continue to act very poorly, while Verizon even noted an elongation to the upgrade cycle. 

Given how big Apple is in the handset market, it seems hard to believe that Apple will miss badly when it reports forward guidance. Also given Apple’s history of embarrassing those that bet against it, it is not something I would want to do.

Analysts are looking for earnings to have risen by about 14 percent in the fiscal first quarter to $3.82, while expectations are for revenue to have increased by 11 percent to $87 billion. But more importantly will be guidance, which is expected at $2.89, on revenue of $67.20 billion.

Meanwhile, as I wrote about for Investopedia this past week, there are plenty of bullish bets being placed in the options market.

Amazon

Amazon is also reporting on Thursday, and what will happen there is the big mystery. The street is looking for earnings of $1.83, and unless it is a colossal beat or big miss, profits do not matter, because everyone knows Amazon just plays with investors when it comes to the bottom line. Nobody embarrasses Wall Street like Amazon can.  The past two quarters are perfect examples.

amazon earnings estiamtes

But that revenue number does matter a great deal, and analysts are looking for that to have grown by astounding 37 percent to $59.85 billion. The stock is already up 20 percent in 2018, and the options market is implying a rise or fall of about 7 percent using the $1,400 strike price options set to expire on February 2, putting the stock in a range of roughly $1305 to $1495.

The huge run-up in the stock means expectations going into this print are massive, the only question that remains is if Amazon can pull off a Netflix like move, and crush even those expectations.

That is it for today back tomorrow with more for the week ahead.

 

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2017 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #earnings #previews #apple #amazon #amd #facebook #microsoft