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Micron Earnings Preview, Tesla, Netflix, Apple, Broadcom

Micron Earnings Preview, Tesla, Netflix, Apple, Broadcom



Micron Earnings Preview, Tesla, Netflix, Apple, Broadcom

MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN SHARES OF NFLX, TSLA, AAPL

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Micron

The volatility levels are about to pick up in a significant way for Micron this week, with the company reporting results Wednesday after the close of trading. The options set to expire on July 20, are implying a rise or fall in the stock price by nearly 12.5 percent from the $60 strike price, placing shares in a trading range between $52.5 and $67.50, massive. The number of calls heavily outweigh the puts by a ratio of nearly 2 to 1, with roughly 106,000 open call contracts to only 68,000 open put contracts. It suggests more traders are betting on shares of Micron rising.

The number of open call contracts has been steadily rising since the middle of May and have been climbing right through the end of this past week.

But the number of open puts contracts have been rising even faster over the course of the past couple of weeks, with most of the significant gain coming just this past week.

Despite the calls outweighing the puts at the $60 strike price, my feeling is that it is a bit misleading, because most of the bets for the $60 calls are old, while the newer bets seem to be going to the puts.

Since the third quarter of 2016, Micron has beaten its earnings estimates every time. Analysts estimates for the current quarter have been rising going into this print as well.

(YCHARTS)

Revenue has been a different story, and the company has a mixed bag when it comes to beating estimates.

(YCHARTS)

Based on those current trends, and the fact that Micron just raised guidance a few weeks back, it seems like the company will be fine versus the estimates. But the question will be how high expectations are going into the print.

Based on the technical chart, expectations seem to be coming down going into this report. In fact, it would not surprise me to see shares trading somewhere in the mid-50’s by the time the company reports results, around $53 to $56. Volume levels have slumped in recent days, and the RSI is now trending lower suggesting momentum is coming out of the stock.

micron

If I had to make a bet, at this point, based on the options and the technical chart, Micron’s stock likely trades lower post results. But let’s see where the stock is come Tuesday to see if there have been any meaningful changes in betting, and how the technical chart looks.


Looking Ahead

Netflix

Believe it or not, the second quarter is nearly complete, and will soon be in earnings season again. Netflix has also been one of the companies that kick things off and based on the trends; subscription growth continues to look strong.

Tesla

Outside of me physically seeing more and more Model 3’s on the road, yesterday I got a notice that now the Model 3’s will in showrooms on June 15 in NY, and few other states.

Apple

I suspect at some point in the next few weeks or so we shall start hearing more regarding Apple and its supply chain as it only seems natural, since that is always the case. But one also remember that Apple will be launching its newest iPhone sometime in September. So, at this point, we should start hearing more about the new phones and number of units Apple is ordering for. It seems at this point expectations are for three new phones, two with OLED and one with an LCD display. Regardless it would look as if Apple is trying to drive the average selling price higher per phone with two higher-end OLED phones.

Broadcom

Additionally, Broadcom’s latest results and guidance do not suggest a new surge wireless business yet.

That is it for today, more tomorrow.

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

 

#micron #tesla #apple #broadcom #netflix #earnings $mu $tsla $aapl $avgo $nflx

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Stocks Show Their Might Led by Chips and Biotech

Stocks Show Their Might Led by Chips and Biotech – The Daily Rundown



Stocks Show Their Might Led by Chips and Biotech – The Daily Rundown

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We surely didn’t get the breakout I was looking for today, but we sure did get an exciting trading session, that told us about the market’s current state of mind. If this had been February, I think word of tensions with North Korea, or President Trump pulling out of a meeting with the leader of North Korea would have sent the market reeling lower by 1.5 to 2 percent on the S&P 500. But this is May and spirits seem much brighter.


Equities indeed sold-off following the news President Trump was calling off the summit with Kim Jung-Un of North Korea in June. The S&P 500 had an initial knee-jerk reaction taking it down about 1 percent by 11 AM. But the rest of the day was about price recovery, and by the close, the S&P 500 finished down about 20 bps, while the NASDAQ recovered all its losses to finish essentially flat. That is impressive, and I think it tells us a lot about the state of mind for the market. What had been a weak market just a few short weeks ago, seems to have become more confident.

^SPX Chart

^SPX data by YCharts


Risk-on Leadership

Like I wrote yesterday, we saw leadership prevail from the key players, with chips and biotech’s up on the day by nearly 40 bps, the risk-on sectors of the markets. Yes, Utilities rose by 80 bps on the day, but that has more to do with yields falling, with 10-year yields down to 2.98 percent, from 3.10 a week ago.

Chips mounted a rally, from down 80 bps at 11 am, to up 34 bps by the close, a significant recovery. What stocks led, well the usual suspects, Micron up 2.6 percent and now at $61.50, followed by AMD up 2.0 percent, On Semi up 3.6 percent, and Broadcom up 1.3 percent.


Micron

The advance in Micron continues to be impressive, shares are nearing a very big breakout, sitting right at resistance at $61.50. If it can manage to advance tomorrow, then it might still have some further to go, and $61.50 should offer support in the future should it climb and retrace.

Should Micron break out tomorrow and rise above its 52-week high of $63.42, then it may be on a trip towards $73, a price not seen in nearly two decades, back to the year 2000! Yes, a break out for Micron is a huge deal.

The bears will argue the DRAM pricing cannot stay strong, and Micron’s recent revenue and earnings surge cannot last, while the Bulls say the opposite.

Based on estimates to the year 2020, analysts are forecasting flat revenues and declining earnings, the street seems to believe the good times can’t last, which means Micron’s stock can continue to climb should it keep putting up strong results because a positive outcome is not baked into the stock.


Netflix

As noted yesterday, Netflix broke out, and it continued today with shares reaching an intraday high of $353. Some in the media were talking about Netflix now having a market cap just barely higher than Disney’s and Comcast, at $152.14 billion to Disney’s $152.03 billion, and Comcast at $145.78 billion. Most of that has to do with the fact that Comcast is nearly down 20 percent on the year.

DIS Market Cap Chart

DIS Market Cap data by YCharts

Plus, my knee-jerk reaction, why shouldn’t Netflix be worth more, aren’t Comcast and Disney trying to become like Netflix? Isn’t that why Disney is launching a direct to the consumer product. Isn’t that why Comcast is trying to steal Fox’s assets away from Disney? Of course, it is. Comcast and its cable line will be worthless in another few years when Verizon and the other wireless players launch 5G, and cord cutting start to accelerate at an even faster pace.

Imagine a world, where one day like your phone and your tablet, your TV will be able to access data, but not through wifi, but your wireless provider. It sounds crazy, but how hard could it be?

Why else would Comcast be so hot to get Fox? They want to keep building up their content library and become a content business.

-Mike


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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

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Tags: #netflix #micron #comcast #disney #amd #broadcom #biotech #chips #stocks #sp500

oracle

Prepping For Micron and Oracle, Plus Microsoft and Broadcom


Prepping For Micron and Oracle, Plus Microsoft and Broadcom

As the week draws to a close the stock market didn’t have a remarkable week, in fact, the S&P 500 was down by about 1 percent for the week. But stocks showed some strong trends on Friday which suggest next week is likely to see gains.

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The S&P 500 continues, for now, to trend higher, putting in a series of higher highs, and higher lows, and as long as that trend continues then the index is likely heading back towards 2,880 over time. The index may rise towards 2,810 next week.

stock market S&P 500

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Micron

One would never know the market was down this week, looking at shares of Micron, the stock jumped by over 11 percent on the week, and is now resuming its uptrend as well, going into earnings next week.

micron

The stock got another significant upgrade today this time from Baird, with the price target rising to $100 from $60, on stronger than expected trends in memory. The actual revenue and earnings estimate trends for the consensus have remained relatively flat, with revenue estimates rising by about 3 to 4 percent for 2018, 2019, and 2020, versus a stock that has climbed by 42 percent. Earnings estimates are trending higher since the start of 2018, up 7 percent for 2018, 5.5 percent for 2019, and 3.5 percent for 2020. But again the stock is up way more.

MU Chart

MU data by YCharts

That would suggest that investors are expecting the earnings multiple to keep expanding, and it has, rising from below 5 to 6.85. How much more is the market willing to give it? We might find out next week.


Oracle

Oracle also reports next week, and I found it interesting that somebody opened a position in the April $57.5 calls. The trades weren’t huge, just over 13k contracts. But with the company reporting Monday after the close, it caught my eye.

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Alphabet

Have you notice Alphabet trending lower, it got right to resistance, at $1,175, where the gap was created post-earnings, and it has been trading lower since.

alphabet

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Microsoft

Microsoft had some exciting news, about a new division within the company that would be cloud-based gaming.  The article notes Microsoft is looking for gaming to grow to 2 billion users globally, and a new cloud-based subscription service could help Microsoft reach them. In a Netflix subscriber world, the opportunity could be enormous, with only the hurdle being pricing potentially, but it sounds very cool.


Broadcom

I was surprised to see Broadcom trade down today, but it looked more like fill the gap-type day while retesting the downward trendline breakout. I still think shares go higher.

broadcom

That it is it!

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Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own shares of NFLX GOOGL

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #microsoft #broadcom #micron #oracle #GOOGL

twitter amd broadcom biotech

Twitter and AMD Options Stand Out, Is There A Double Top In Biotech?


Twitter and AMD Options Stand Out, Is There A Double Top In Biotech?

The stock market overall had another dull day, with the S&P 500 down less than 10 bps, closing at 2,747. Like I had mentioned yesterday, the S&P managed to hang around support at 2,746. Again, there is a chance we could try for 2,740, but my expectations continue to suggest higher equity price over the short-term.

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Yields

10-year treasury yield continue to head lower, and I think they head toward the 2.6 percent region.

10-year


IBB

The NASDAQ Biotech ETF, $IBB, looks headed towards $111.50, where there is a steady level of support there. If that cracks, we have much lower to go, and it makes the downtrend more powerful.

biotech


XBI

The XBI looks scary now, and move to $93.50 nears. But the formation of what appears to be double top is what worries me. The only question, where is the neckline in this mess? It is probably not $93.50, and that is good news. It looks to be in a range of $88 or $89, and break below that would confirm the double-top, and a move much lower.

xbi

Regeneron

Regeneron continued its downward move today after getting close to resistance around $351.

regeneron

Biogen

Biogen continues to try to turn higher.

biogen

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AMD

There was a lot of activity again in AMD options with 142,000 put contracts trading at $10 strike price for April 20 expiration. According to data from Trade Alert,  52 percent of the volume occurred on the bid, and that would tell me someone was likely buying the puts, but we won’t know until open interest updates tomorrow. There was already open interest of 267k contracts. Meanwhile, the $11 puts also traded about 43,000 contracts, but again the open interest going into today was about 265k.

The chart is near a major breakdown, and should it fall through $11.20, it is likely to head towards $10.70, but it could be as much as $9.75

amd

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Broadcom

Broadcom reported better than expected fiscal first-quarter revenue of $5.331 billion, ahead of estimates for 4.998 billion, while beating on EPS at $5.12 per share versus estimates of $5.06 according to thefly.com. The guidance for revenue of $5 billion for the fiscal second quarter is pretty much in line with expectations. To me, after the first look, there was nothing in this report that wasn’t as expected. I think the overall trend in Broadcom continues to stay favorable, with the stock continuing to rise.

broadcom


Twitter

Twitter is close to a big breakout and a rise above $36.75, as I noted in an Investopedia article, sends shares much higher, perhaps to $46. The holder of January 2019 $37 calls, pared their position back yesterday, with the open interest being reduced to 89,000 contracts.  The calls trade at $6.25, and that makes the open contracts worth about $55 million. Whoa! To think it was about $66 million yesterday before they sold some of those calls.

I went over this in the premium video yesterday and showed the build-up in the open interest when I think the position was first purchased.

Again, it surprises me how slow this trader is in lowering the position given the massive gains. In the article I wrote yesterday, I noted the open interest jumped around the end of August, and the price of Twitter was much lower, like in the upper-teens, which means the options were likely bought for a very cheap premium.

It makes me think they see more gains for the stock price.

 

twitter

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That is it!

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #biotech #biogen #regeneron #twitter #amd #broadcom  

salesforce adobe acadia

Examining Acadia, Adobe, and SalesForce – A Look At The Week To Come


Examining Acadia, Adobe, and SalesForce – A Look At The Week To Come

Inflation watch is not over just yet, this week the consumer price index (CPI) will come Tuesday. According to Bloomberg, estimates are calling for a rise of 2.2 percent year-over-year, while ex-food and energy a gain of 1.9 percent y/y. Then on Wednesday morning, we get the Producer Price Index, and estimates are calling for a month over month gain of 0.2 percent. If the results come in as expected my guess is that market will be pleased, these estimates are not a sign of an overheating economy or inflation.

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This week will also mark quadruple witching expiration, which means Friday could be an exciting day with a high level of volatility, just keep that in mind.

The Wall Street Journal reported late on Friday that now Intel may look to acquire Broadcom, in a case of the hunter becoming the hunted. It is incredible the that drama keeps getting more and more entangled. I have no idea where it goes from here, but perhaps with Intel in pursuit to acquire Broadcom trying to block Broadcom’s acquisition of Qualcomm, maybe Broadcom backs off. There are plenty of other chip companies around that Broadcom could fit into its portfolio. But the news is likely to give investors even more reason to keep aggressively buying the chip stocks.


Adobe

Adobe has been a fantastic stock over the years, with the stock up 185 percent over the past three years! The chart is incredible, and it seems to have broken out yet again and looks to be entering a “Netflix” ramp-up on the charts.

adobe

Earnings in 2018 are expected to grow at 45.7 percent to $6.28 per shares, while revenue is forecast to rise by 20 percent to $8.77 billion in 2018. But now, analyst views are pointing to earnings growth of about 13 percent in 2019 to $7.10 and 15 percent growth in 2020 to $8.20. Is this a Nvidia type of story where analysts are underestimating growth, for the company only to come out and top estimates? It may not be the case with Adobe because last quarter they just surprised the street on earnings by 9 percent, and 2.7 percent on revenue, nowhere near a Nvidia type of beat.

ADBE Price Target Chart

ADBE Price Target data by YCharts

Of the 33 analysts that cover the stock, 82 percent have a buy or outperform rating, while the average price target on the stock is at roughly $218. Are analysts price target adjustments on the way? Potentially. The stock is not cheap at 31 times one-year forward earnings estimates, and 10.5 times one-year forward sales. Tough call….

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SalesForce

SalesForce is another stock that looks to have broken out, but again not all that different to Adobe.  Earnings are forecast to climb by nearly 52 percent in 2018 to $2.05, while revenue is expected to grow by almost 21 percent to $12.67 billion. But the earnings growth slows to the mid-20 percent range, which is still very fast, but it comes with a high price tag, at 50 times one-year forward earnings.

saleforce

The stock is trading well above its historical trading channel, and while 91 percent of the 45 analysts covering the stock have a buy or outperforming rating on the stock, their average price target is only $135.88, only 6 percent from the current price.

CRM Price Target Chart

CRM Price Target data by YCharts


Acadia

Acadia has performed horribly since results came out, and to be honest, there was nothing terrible enough to warrant shares being down by 21 percent since. I find it interesting that analysts have raised their revenue estimates for the year 2020 to $838 million! Meanwhile, the street is looking for revenue of $263 million in 2018, and $443 million in 2019. In fact, Wall Street is modeling for the company to earn $1.78 per share by the year 2020. Those are significant revenue and earnings growth numbers, the only questions I have is what are the estimates assuming? Is it just the market for Parkinson Disease Psychosis, or are they factoring in the success of future trials? I’m not sure, the only trial that we will get color on anytime soon is the Depression trial, so it is likely all based on PDP.

 

ACAD Chart

ACAD data by YCharts

The average price target on the stock is $50.11, yet shares trade at only $25.33 today, so there again, another example of a big disconnect by the street, and the stock. Who is right? We shall find out eventually.

That is gonna be it, for now, good luck!

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© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #intel #broadcom #qualcomm #acadia #salesforce #adobe

job report, microsoft, qualcomm vote, roku, micron

Micron, Microsoft, Qualcomm Vote, Job Report – The Week Of March 5th


Micron, Microsoft, Qualcomm Vote, Job Report – The Week Of March 5th

This coming week should be exciting, with ADP on Wednesday and BLS Job report on Friday morning. Has it been a month already? It feels like the other day the market was freaking out over “the hot wage” reading. Mind you the reading was a 2.9 percent rise in wages for January. It was 2.83 percent September, but nobody cared about the wage number back then.

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It is sad that wages grew at 2.9 percent in January and that was the highest reading since May of 2009.


What Happened To Wage Growth

This next chart will demonstrate how bad it has been now for years. Can you believe there was a time when hourly wages were rising at 9 percent a year? Look at that, true we had inflation issues in the 1970’s. But look at the growth in wages in the 1990’s. Now, look at today.


Shifting Workforce

The next chart shows us what has been happening to our workforce through the years. In 1970 Manufacturing jobs were the most prominent part of the labor force, with roughly 18 million workers, now it is about 12 million. Meanwhile, leisure and hospitality jobs have risen from approximately 6 million to nearly 16 million today. Retail trade in 1970 7.4 million, today 15.8 million.

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Shifting Wages

The jobs that pay the highest hourly wages Construction, Professional and Business services, while Retail and Hospitality pay the lowest. Durable goods and manufacturing are the third and fourth highest. Over the years, the economy has shifted from higher paying jobs, into lower paying jobs. It seems pretty clear, as to what has happened. 

 

Stocks

Obviously, this coming week will be critical to hear what the latest developments on the tariff situation and we should get more clarity this following week. The news around the tariff likely takes center stage, until Friday, when the only that might matter is Job report.

But we need to see the stock market continue where it left off on Friday. We are going to want to see a strong opening on Monday, and a solid follow through during the day.

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VIX

The vix is another important to gauge; we need to watch the vix spot vs. the future contracts. The chart below shows its nicely. Notice starting from the bottom with the purple line, the VIX spot is the cheapest, followed by the orange line (APRIL), Red (MAY), Green (JUNE), Purple (July), make sense? But notice how the market goes into backwardation at the start of February and where June become the cheapest, followed by July, May, April and then the Spot. Just keep an eye on this, it could be something to watch should the stock market start going off the rails. It tells us what the market is thinking regarding the future of volatility

^VIX Chart

^VIX data by YCharts


Micron

Micron could be on the verge of a massive breakout should be it able to rise above $50, and could see its shares rise to levels not seen in nearly two decades, back to $58.

micron

Roku

Roku appears to be on the verge of a major breakdown, that could send shares back into upper 20’s.

roku

Microsoft

Microsoft, found support at the previous downtrend, but will it hold? It also failed at resistance at $93.25, Microsoft will be an important one to watch? Does it break out or break down?

microsoft


Broadcom

It is a big week for Broadcom, with Qualcomm’s shareholder vote on Tuesday. Will Broadcom get its nominees on to Qualcomm’s board?

broadcom

The stock held support at $241, now where does it go? It will likely depend on the outcome of the Qualcomm board vote this pending week. Right now the options market is not looking for a deal to get between the two companies. The long straddle options strategy is looking for a rise or fall of only 11.7 percent, putting the stocks in a trading range of $57.5 to $72.5 by expiration on April 20.  The open interest for the $75 calls is relatively small at approximately 40,500 contracts, a notional value of only $2.8 million. Does Broadcom succeed at buying Qualcomm? Probably not.

qualcomm broadcom

 

That is it. Good Luck this week.

 

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

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Tags: #sp500 #micron #microsoft #roku #qualcomm #broadcom #jobs 

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Amazon, Microsoft, and Netflix Showing Sign Of Fatigue

Amazon, Microsoft, and Netflix Showing Sign Of Fatigue

To follow up on the weekend commentary, Amazon, Microsoft, and Netflix are continuing to show signs of weakness. In fact, today’s trading action, despite mild gains, actually strengthen that argument as each stock failed at crucial resistance levels. Plus I take a mild victory on NXP Semiconductor

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S&P 500

The stock market traded slightly lower today, with the S&P 500 down by about 60 bps, to 2,716, bring the S&P 500 down to our first support level around 2,713.

S&P 500

The chart above shows how the S&P 500 bounced right off, 2613, and managed to close right above it. Over the weekend, I wrote that the S&P 500 might fall to 2,691 to and I still believe that is the case, over the next couple days. Again, let me emphasize I am not saying or calling for the start of some massive sell-off, this, in my opinion, is just merely a minor pullback, in what has otherwise been a sharp and robust rebound. But if support fails and the index falls below 2,691 the story changes.

Amazon

amazon

Amazon finished the day higher by about 1.36 percent, but again Amazon continues to look extremely toppy here, and once again, the stock topped out along resistance and has yet to break above its previous highs.  To make matters worse for Amazon, we can see the stock had a relatively sharp sell-off of about 1 percent over the final hour and half of the day.

amazon

Additionally, if the stock fails to break to new highs, it could be a sign of a double-top forming on the daily chart. For now, the warning signs for Amazon, are a failure to rise to a new all-time high and a drop below $1,425. Should Amazon’s price fall below 1,425 shares likely fall sharply lower, perhaps to $1,250.

Notice volume was consistently rising for Amazon starting at the end of 2017, and it has been steadily declining even as the stock has rebound, again a bearish sign in my book.

Watch for these levels and these areas of interest. To be clear, I am NOT saying Amazon is about to enter some giant bear market, or this the all-time high’s never to be seen again! NO! I am merely suggesting that the stock may have a pullback over the next few weeks to months, and now is likely to err on the side of caution.

Microsoft

Microsoft also rallied 90 bps today, but look at that chart below, again failing right at resistance. You saw the chart from over the weekend. I don’t make these things up!

msft

If shares can clear $93.50, it is a sign that I am wrong, and the stock could continue to rally. That trendline is of critical importance to watch.

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Netflix

Netflix is the same scenario, also nearing a technical breakout/breakdown. Again, Netflix like Amazon must make a new all-time for any rally to continue to over the short-term. If shares are unable to rise above $287.50, it would suggest that the stock will fall and likely test support around $250.

netflix

NXP/Qualcomm

After a year of writing about the topic, Qualcomm has finally up its bid for NXPI to $127.50 or $44 billion.   I’m going to give myself a well-deserved pat on the back because it was in June, I said that Qualcomm would need to raise its offer $45 billion. Pretty darn close.

The most entertaining thing about the new offer? The tender closes on March 5, at 11:59 PM. Remember Broadcom is nominating people to run for Qualcomm’s board of director at the shareholder meeting. Broadcom made it quite clear they opposed Qualcomm upping its bid for NXPI. So what does Qualcomm do to fend off Broadcom, what they had too, up the bid. The best part, guess when that shareholder meeting is? You guessed it, March 6.

Talk about a kick in the teeth!

That is it! Good Luck

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Tags: #sp500 #stock #microsoft #broadcom #qualcomm #nxpi #netflix #amazon

 

S&P 500 Amazon Microsoft Apple Tesla Broadcom

Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Netflix May Fall, Tesla & Broadcom May Rise

Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Netflix May Fall, Tesla & Broadcom May Rise

It will be a shortened trading week for the stock market, with the President day holiday, but it should be anything but slow. The S&P 500 has rallied by 200 points since bottoming on Friday, February 9, a rise of 8 percent. But we could see the rally pause this week and take a bit of breather.

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The 5-minute chart shows how the S&P 500 stalled at the end of the day on Friday, options expiration,  and was unable to close at the highs of the day, with resistance at 2,742 proving to be too strong. It would suggest the S&P 500 is set to fall slightly, at least at the start of the week to roughly 2,690, a decline of approximately 1.5 percent. Should 2,690 hold, which is my expectation, a rise higher would continue from that point.

S&P 500 stock market

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Amazon

Amazon is likely not finished falling and could retest its 200-day moving average again around $1,300, in the not too distant future. We can see that in the chart the relative strength index has now been trending lower, despite the stock moving higher, a bearish divergence. Additionally, the recent price rise higher came on declining amounts of volume, which would suggest that buyers do not have the same level of conviction as the previous surge higher.

amazon

Additionally, the stock failed at resistance at $1,470 and the previous trend higher also acted as a resistance level. Again more bearish indications.

If that wasn’t enough, the stock is trading at peak valuations on a historical basis as well. As noted in an Investopedia article I wrote during the week, each time the stock has risen above 2.4 times one-year forward sales it has seen its stock decline.

Microsoft

Microsoft is not all that different than Amazon, with an RSI that is also trending lower, despite  a rising stock price. The stock looks set to decline to roughly $85.50, where it should find a meaningful support level.

Apple

Apple like the others is exhibiting the same patterns, with an RSI trending the wrong way. The best case scenario is for Apple to test that lower uptrend again, which is now around $160.

aaple

Netflix

Netflix is no different, with a divergent RSI, and waning volume levels each day following the lows. It likely indicates shares could be set to fall, perhaps to around $250.

nflx

Tesla

Tesla shares could look to continue to rise, and unlike the other stocks, it has an RSI that is trending higher, and again was able to test the $290 -$300 support level. The stock has been able to rise above the multi-month downtrend as well, another positive. Tesla never got to the extreme overbought levels either.

tesla

Tesla, unlike Amazon, is also trading at a historical discount on a one-year price to forward sales ratio. The last time Tesla was trading a ratio this low came two-years ago in February of 2016 when it was trading at 1.77 times one-year forward sales estimate. Now it trades at only 1.97 times forward 2019 forward sales estimates of $26.51 billion

TSLA Chart

TSLA data by YCharts

Broadcom

With the odds of Broadcom acquiring Qualcomm continuing to dimish, the stock is starting to reflect life without Qualcomm. With that, the stock has found a meaningful bounce off of support at $227, and the RSI has broken out of a multi-month downtrend. A breakout would come if the stock rose above $260.

broadcom

Shares are also historically cheap trading at less than 12 times one year forward earnings estimates of $15.30. The company issued strong guidance in just two weeks ago.

AVGO Chart

AVGO data by YCharts

Qualcomm

If the Qualcomm/Broadcom deal is dead, then Qualcomm has no right trading at $65, and likely reverts to the low $50’s. The company still has an on-going litigation with Apple, while analysts are looking for earnings to decline by nearly 20 percent in 2018 to $3.46, while revenue is expected to drop almost 5 percent to $22.2 billion.

qualcomm

In fact, the company is not expected to see revenue growth for some time.

QCOM Revenue (TTM) Chart

QCOM Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts

That is it for today. Good Luck

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

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Tags:#amazon #netflix #apple #qualcomm #broadcom #microsoft #sp500 #fall #rise #tesla

biotech stocks apple microsoft broadcom

Cracks Emerge In The Stock Market

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Cracks Emerge In The Stock Market

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The stock market continues to churn, and cracks are still emerging as we noted the other day. The market is still looking weak, and some of the most prominent companies are just extremely overbought. For now, the S&P 500 is still not out of the woods, and the direction is still lower, with the potential for a shallow 3-5 percent pullback.

s&p 500 stock market

Is this start of some massive sell-off? No, it is a normal and healthy pullback after nearly a 5.5 percent rise in January.

Microsoft

The first crack came after the close, with Microsoft shares trading lower, nothing substantial but still by about 2 percent as I write this at 4:30. It doesn’t matter whether Microsoft beat or miss its numbers, because the numbers looked very good, boosted by significant gains in Azure and Office 365. But the market is taking profits on a stock that ran up too much ahead of results.

microsoft

Apple

We spoke about Apple and the importance of the stock holding support on the uptrend, and to this point that has been the case.  But the main event comes tomorrow night when we hear all about the iPhone X.

apple

But Broadcom may have spoiled the party today, when it narrowed its fiscal first revenue range, and issued above estimates second-quarter revenue guidance. But the big news was in the last meaningful paragraph when the company noted: “Looking ahead to our second fiscal quarter, strong data center demand for our wired and enterprise storage products and a seasonal pick up in broadband is expected to offset a greater than seasonal decline in wireless”.

I talk about this more in the premium member “Reading The Market” section and what the fall out for Apple may be. But the sentence may have stolen the news from Apple. But you can rent the video and watch and get a sample of how the service works.

Did Broadcom Just Side Swipe Apple from Michael Kramer on Vimeo.

Amazon

Amazon had an interesting reversal today, and it could be merely a filling the gap moment, but should the stock move below $1,440 it could be the sign of a move lower. Again the company reports results tomorrow after the close, and that will be the key. But let Microsoft serve as an example of what Amazon could do after those results get published.

amazon

Biotech Stocks

Biotech stocks fell for the second day in a row with the Nasdaq Biotech ETF down nearly 2 percent and are down about 3.3 percent over the past two days. The chart below shows how the ETF fell right to support, around $113.50. I expect that the ETF will hold support at this level, as it a steady level on the way, and it is like to act that should it try to go lower.

biotech

The drug pricing issue continues to plague the group, and we have been hearing about this now since September of 2015. Again, I continue to believe that anything that happens with regards to drug pricing will come in the form of regulation, with perhaps getting generic to market faster.

That is going to it.

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

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Tags: #apple #biotech #stocks #microsoft #amazon #broadcom #sp500

apple stock broadcom skyworks tesla

Apple Now Showing Weakness, While Skyworks and Broadcom Fall

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Apple Now Showing Weakness, While Skyworks and Broadcom Fall

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Apple’s stock is starting to trade poorly, and I get the feeling it isn’t done going down over the short-term. There is support currently around $168, but after that, we are looking at $165.  It is what happens after that, which is the big problem.

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apple

But should Apple fall below $165, it is likely headed back to the $150’s, with the potential for more. That red line is a significant uptrend, and should it break that uptrend; problems may lie ahead. But let’s worry about that if it should continue to move closer.

apple

Skyworks

The suppliers continue to trade terribly, and for Skyworks, the market seems intent on retesting the previous lows around $94. Should $94 not hold, well then it looks like we shall be heading towards $82, filling the gap created nearly a year ago.

I have been trying hard to pretend like that gap didn’t exist, or that it would never come back into play. But should Skyworks fail at $94, that is where it is going.

skyworks

Broadcom

Even Broadcom has now cracked, and is showing signs of weakeness, and has the potential to move back into the mid $220’s.

broadcom

Tesla

The rumor mill was at again, but this time instead of Apple falling victim, it was Tesla’s turn. Shares of Tesla fell after CNBC reported that the Model 3 could see further production delays and quality issues. Shares of the stock took a hit when the news started spreading, going from roughly flat to down about $10.

tesla

But then after hours, it was reported that Tesla is on pace with current Model 3 projections. So who is right and who is wrong? No clue. But it moved the stock and that all that matters. But again another example of rumors, and how they are starting to get a bit out of control.

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Tags: #apple #suppliers #skyworks #broadcom

 

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Target, NXP/Qualcomm, Chip Stocks, and More – Monster Week In Review

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Target, NXP/Qualcomm, Chip Stocks, and More – Monster Week In Review

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It was another record-setting week for the stock market, as the S&P 500 finished the week at 2,810.  Target ($TGT) shares continue to soar, now up by nearly 20 percent. Meanwhile, the chipmaker stocks have come roaring back to life after being left for dead at the end of 2017. Plus, we take a look at the Qualcomm ($QCOM)/NXP ($NXPI) deal, and how much Qualcomm may have to pay up, which could be as much $155 to get the NXP deal done.

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Broader Stock Market

Consumer Discretionary stocks ($XLY) continue to lead the charge higher in 2018, now up by over 7 percent, just beating out the healthcare ($XLV) names, which are up by 6.97 percent.  The S&P 500 is now up by just over 5 percent. Utility stocks continue as the worse performing group, down by over 5 percent, and with yields continuing to rise, and the 10-year likely on its way back to 3 percent, utilities, and the consumer staples should continue to have a rough year.

^SPX Chart

^SPX data by YCharts

Out of the top 25 holdings in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF ($SPY), only 4 are down, AT&T ($T), Intel ($INTC), Verizon ($VZ), and Procter & Gamble ($PG).

Top Performing Stocks

Target

Within discretionary stocks, Target continues to run, now up nearly 20 percent on the year, followed by Netflix ($NFLX), Lowes ($LOW), and Amazon ($AMZN), all up by more than 10 percent.

consumer discretionary stocks

Despite the sharp rise in Target’s shares this year, keep in mind the past three years have been horrible for the stock, and part of the reason we have seen the stock rise so sharply in 2018, is due to expectations that revenues will continue to recover. It would suggest that any slip up in this development could be problematic for the stock price.

The chart below shows the relationship between Targets trailing-twelve-month revenue and the stock price. Revenue estimates show how expectations are for them to return to the previous highs over the next two years.

TGT Chart

TGT data by YCharts

Additionally, Target has historically had a high effective tax rate, as well as improving revenue expectations, the market is looking for a boost to the company’s earnings from tax savings.

TGT Effective Tax Rate (Quarterly) Chart

TGT Effective Tax Rate (Quarterly) data by YCharts

As long as Target’s business continues to see a revenue recover, the stock should continue to flourish.


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Euro’s Big Breakout

Inflation, Tesla Plus So Much More

Predicting The Euro’s Rise 


Chipmaker Stocks

We haven’t focused much on the chipmaker stock much this year, but after having a rough finish to 2017, the sector is moving higher once again, with the PHLX Semiconductor ETF ($SOXX) up nearly 10 percent in 2018, with a new group of leaders emerging. 2017 saw Micron ($MU), Nvidia and the Apple supplier lead the group higher, this year it has been AMD ($AMD), ON Semi ($ON), Nvidia ($NVDA), ASML ($ASML) and Cypress ($CY), and notice how the Apple suppliers Broadcom ($AVGO), Skyworks ($SWKS), and Qrovo ($QRVO) have fallen to the bottom.

 

chipmaker stocks

ASML reported solid results just this past week, beating earnings estimates by over 40 percent, and revenue estimates by nearly 20 percent, according to Ycharts. Which also helped to lift shares of Lam Research ($LRCX), MKS Instruments ($MKSI), and Applied Materials ($AMAT) higher too.

ASML Chart

ASML data by YCharts

So apparently a rotation has started occurring to this point in 2018, out of the Apple suppliers into chip equipment suppliers, for now at least.

NXP and Qualcomm Should Start Heating Up

NXP and Qualcomm have finally received EU approval for the proposed deal, and with shares of NXP trading at over $120, Qualcomm faces a dilemma, pay up or be acquired by Broadcom.

I have said this for months, but Qualcomm needs NXP badly. Qualcomm’s battle with Apple shows just how fragile their licensing business is, and how badly it’s revenue streams needs diversification NXP offers Qualcomm that and would make Qualcomm an immediate force in near-field communication and the auto market.

Broadcom to this point has been very aggressive in its attempts at taking over Qualcomm, and I’d suspect should the NXP deal fall through, they will get even more aggressive.

Wall Street is forecasting no revenue growth for Qualcomm over the next three years, and that undoubtedly does not strengthen Qualcomm’s case to stay independent.

QCOM Revenue (TTM) Chart

QCOM Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts

At $120, NXP is now trading at only 15 times 2019 estimates of $7.98, while Qualcomm is trading at 15.10 times estimates of $4.25. You can see that Qualcomm is not even paying a premium for NXP at this point, and even a modest 30 percent premium get’s NXP to 19.5 times 2019 estimates or a price of $155. A 30 percent premium to Broadcom’s forward multiple of 13, gets NXP’s share price to $135.

NXPI PE Ratio (Forward 1y) Chart

NXPI PE Ratio (Forward 1y) data by YCharts

Qualcomm finds itself in an awkward spot for sure. Qualcomm can threaten to cancel the deal with NXP, but then they would have to pay a $2 billion breakup fee and likely have Hock Tan and Broadcom just gobble them up.

That is it!

Tomorrow, a look at the week and earnings to come.

Free Articles Written By Mike:

Netflix Investors May Be Getting Too Bullish On The Stock

Why Chipmaker Lam Research Is Poised For a Rebound

How a Juno Takeover Could Boost Celgene

Why Facebook Stock Looks Like a Bargain

Why Ford Could Rise By Nearly 30%

Why Morgan Stanley’s Stock Is Poised to Rise by 25%

Apple Poised to Gain 14%, Defying Skeptics

Exxon Mobil May Rise 20% on the Back of Surging Oil

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Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capial own shares of SWKS, NXPI, VZ, NFLX

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2017 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #target #chipmakers #NXP #Qualcomm #broadcom 

apple iphone shipments

Apple iPhone Shipment Maybe Better Than Feared – Premium Content

Apple iPhone Shipment Maybe Better Than Feared – Premium Content

In this premium video, we use Apple suppliers Broadcom and Jabil to determine the fate of Apple iPhone X shipments.

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2017 Mott Capital Management, LLC. Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

#apple #iphone #broadcom #jabil

bitcoin nvidia amd apple broadcom biotech

Bitcoin, AMD, Nvidia, Biotech, Could Apple iPhone Worries Be Overblown

Bitcoin, AMD, Nvidia, Biotech, Could Apple iPhone Worries Be Overblown

It is a new year, and with that everything gets reset back to zero, but other than not much else should change when trading opens again on January 2.

Bitcoin

It seems likely Bitcoin will continue its decline as well. In an Investopedia article on December 27, I wrote that Bitcoin could fall by as much as 50 percent, from its price of about 15,000, taking the cryptocurrency to nearly 7,700. With Bitcoin now is trading around 13,300, it seems there is still more downside risk.

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The Chart below shows how Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still far from oversold levels. The RSI is now around 46 and would need to fall below 30 before it was oversold. Meanwhile, the next significant level of resistance comes at roughly 11,800, and from there it is a long way down to around 7,700.

btc by Scorpio244 on TradingView.com

Nvidia and AMD Fallout

Nvidia and AMD will sometimes see their stock price get pushed around by the rise and fall of Bitcoin. It doesn’t matter whether GPU’s from AMD or Nvidia get used to mine Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, they are guilty by association because most investors aren’t going to have that type technical sophistication, so just keep that mind. y

In reality, as I have written about in the past, Nvidia’s total revenue from cryptocurrency mining was about 2 percent in the latest quarter, while AMD has started downplaying cryptocurrency trends in its business as well. In fact, AMD was down nearly 10 percent in 2017; the stock market never gave AMD any credit for Bitcoin when it was rising, so why should it when Bitcoin is falling.

NVDA Chart

NVDA data by YCharts

      

Tesla

Tesla Model 3’s are getting delivered, and you can now even buy one on eBay! In fact, you can also buy one now for $77,000! Or this one for $85,000!

Biotech

Remember the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference kicks-off on January 8, and there usually plenty of big announcements that come out of this conference, with more than 400 companies presenting. So make sure you are paying attention.

The Biotech ETF ($IBB) managed to stay in the zone of support, between $106.50 and $107. The biotech stocks should be able to hold this area of support and rally off it come next week.

IBB by Scorpio244 on TradingView.com

 

Celgene has been able to test support now on a few occasions at $102.5, and to this point has held.

celg by Scorpio244 on TradingView.com

 

Biogen has been able to hold support at $319.

biib by Scorpio244 on TradingView.com

 

Gilead is the real question mark in the group. After looking like it made a significant multi-year breakout back in July, and the big Kite acquisition in late summer, the stock has struggled. It seems to have found two level of support around $71.75.

gild by Scorpio244 on TradingView.com

Apple

The focus has come back to Apple and the supply chain again, as investors once again worry about iPhone demand. It is ridiculous that these rumors come up so often. This is what the third or fourth time now? Now the rumors are pointing 30 million units for the first quarter. I have no clue, what this number will be, but we can make an educated guess about how Apple may fare.

Broadcom is a major supplier to Apple and it reported it fiscal fourth quarter 2017 results back on December 6, for the period ended October 29, 2017. The company provided guidance for the fiscal first quarter of 2018, ending on February 4. The company gave strong guidance of $5.3 billion at the mid-point, about 11 percent higher than previous estimates.

AVGO Revenue Estimates for Current Quarter Chart

AVGO Revenue Estimates for Current Quarter data by YCharts

In its 10-K, Broadcom said it believes that Apple accounted for more than 20 percent of revenue in 2017, up from 15 percent in 2016.

Broadcom’s Fiscal First quarter ends on February 4, 2018, running through nearly the middle of the calendar first quarter. If Apple iPhone shipments in the first quarter are to drop from say 50 million units to 30 million units, why would Broadcom issues such strong guidance? Will there be a huge drop off in business in the second half of February and March for Apple? Perhaps. But it is just one other way to assess the situation and think outside of the box and think about all the possibilities.

Good Luck!


On-Demand Premium Content

In my premium video, I run through how the different sectors set up and where the ETF’s might rise or fall too. The video is about nine minutes long and I run through many charts, pulling a lot of pieces into the video for the start of 2018. It an instructional video, so you will see exactly what I’m looking at. 


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Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own shares of CELG and TSLA

Photo Credit Via Flickr

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2017 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #bitcoin #nvidia #amd #apple #broadcom #iphone #x #tesla #model #biotech #celgene #gilead #biogen

 

 

bitcoin

Why Bitcoin Is Poised To Fall, Plus Skyworks, Micron, Nvidia, Tesla

Skyworks, Micron, Nvidia Still Struggle, Bitcoin Reversal Pattern, Tesla

 

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Chips Still Struggle

Chip stocks just continue to melt, and I’m at this point I’m no longer sure what the driving force behind this melt is, as it seems completely overdone.  When looking at shares of Apple supplier Skyworks ($SWKS), the stock had now fallen nearly 19 percent since November 6, when it reported results that beat estimates and gave solid guidance. Shares are currently trading at less than 12 one-year forward fiscal 2019 earnings estimates of $7.98.

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SWKS Chart

SWKS data by YCharts

If the problem is Apple related, then it inevitably hasn’t been reflected in Apple’s stock, because those shares are only down by 1 percent during the same period. Broadcom, another Apple supplier, is down 6.7 percent. But Cirrus Logic and Qorvo two more suppliers have also been slammed, 14 and 17 percent respectively.

But the problem may very well be Apple related, just not on the supply side. Reports have floated for some time that Apple may be about to cut off its second supplier of chips in Dialog Semi. The shares of Dialog Semi have fallen from 44.09EU to 24EU since November 6, a decline of almost 41 percent since November 6. So why are the chips like Skyworks and the smaller suppliers getting crushed? Look at Dialog.

I had written a pretty detailed piece on December 7 for Investopedia, going through this, and the potential fall out. Skyworks and Qorvo have done an excellent job over the years diversifying their revenue streams, but still, have more work to do.

swks

At this point, if Skyworks trades below $94, it seems obvious the next stop is likely on towards filling the gap, in the low to mid-80’s. It would surely be a disappointing finish to what had been a strong year. But the market needs to play this game and will need to sort this out, and it will.

Micron

Micron continues to trade terribly, and can’t seem to hold any gains, even on a day when it gets an excellent commentary out of Morgan Stanley reiterating a buy and $55 price target. It tells of a stock that sellers are just taking advantage of any uptick to pounded it lower, and it means the stock is likely not done going lower.

micron

Nvidia

Nvidia is in the same boat as Micron, the bulls may not want to admit it, but stocks that were once might high flyers that can’t mount a meaningful bid, means their wings have been clipped and likely headed lower.

nvidia

Tesla

Tesla is a zero according to interview with Jim Chanos on CNBC today.  So most would know that I very much disagree with this viewpoint. In fact, I think it may be misguided on his part to believe it is a zero. Tesla has seen relatively high demand all year-long, while many of the high-end luxury automakers have struggled. Additionally, there are reports that Tesla’s Model 3 production is now nearing the 5,000 cars per week according to suppliers.

Remember Tencent took a 5 percent stake in Tesla this year, while there are plenty of other famed investors that would gladly take the other side of Chanos. Short selling is not easy, so I give him credit for being short for so long, considering the cost to borrow shares as well.

Biotech

It seems like the IBB goes up and down by one percent now on a daily basis, and I’m beginning to think that splitting the shares 3:1 did nothing but increase the trading and the vol.  The IBB ETF has now failed at $107 on three occasions, recently.

biotech

What do you think about this next chart? Does it make you want to run and buy it?

bitcoin pirce

Bitcoin

If you don’t know what it is, it is Bitcoin. I simply am not smart enough to understand what is going on here. Because when I look at Bitcoin, all I can see is a “currency” with no government backings, with nothing standing behind its value. $100 is worth $100 because it has the full faith and credit of the US government standing behind it. What stands behind the value of Bitcoin? Currency is worth something because it has the backing of a Government.

I will take a stab at this tonight, because quite frankly I’m bored, and because I’m tired of covering the same things.   Again I’m not expert in Bitcoin, nor do I wish to become one.  I am merely reading this like I would any other chart. That formation I circled in green below, I just do not like and looks very much like a head and shoulders, which means Bitcoin could be headed lower, and if I had to guess I’d say to $13,000 is likely the next stop.

Additionally, we can see the rise in the price from 11,000 to 17,000 the first time around came on higher and higher levels of volume. The more recent surge came on declining volume, while the relative strength index has fallen as well.  A bearish sign as well.

Take it for what it is worth.

bitcoin

Night!


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Disney- The Market Finally Get’s It

Why The FANG’s Could Lead In 2018

Tech Wreck V12.4.17 – More Room Too Fall

Machines Break Loose

Why Tesla Could Double, And Nvidia Could Get Cut In Half

Why The S&P500 Could Melt-Up Into Year End

S&P 500 Breakout- 2700?

Nailing The Biotech Breakout

 


Watch my interview with Cheddar

Top 3 Predictions for the 2018 Market

Seeking Alpha Author Michael Kramer joins Cheddar to give his top three predictions for 2018 market trends. The first one: Tesla will hit a $100 billion market cap! He explains why he’s comparing the auto company to Amazon in his analysis and prediction.

Free Articles Written By Mike:

AMD May Fall By 20% As Short Interest Surges To 5-Year High

Disney Is Poised to Break Out on Fox Deal

Why Starbucks Is Poised To Rise Over 20% In 2018

IBM’s Stock May Rise 10% In Short-Term Rally

Nvidia’s 11% Plunge May Be Just the Start

Why Qualcomm May Have To Pay 20% or More For NXP

Facebook Shares May Rise 20%, Options Trades Indicate

These 2 Suppliers Can Survive Without Apple

FANGs Are Cheaper Than Soda and Burger Stocks

Why Visa and MasterCard May Have Fallen Too Far

Biotech Stocks May See a New M&A Wave in 2018

Why Tesla’s Stock Could Rally Into Yearend

Disney’s Stock Advance Could Be Just The Beginning

Netflix Shares Could Be Headed Lower

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Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own shares of $TSLA $SWKS

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2017 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #technology #chips #skyworks #nvidia #micron #bitcoin #tesla #broadcom #apple