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Stocks and Sectors Breaking Out For The Week of May 14

Stocks and Sectors Breaking Out For The Week of May 14



Stocks and Sectors Breaking Out For The Week of May 14

Michael kramer and the clients of mott capital own shares of acad, dis, and googl
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The week of May 14 will try to continue to build on last week’s strong performance. With earnings pretty much behind us now, investors can continue to digest the strong earnings seasons. Meanwhile, the latest inflation and wage data should also calm nerves over runaway inflation or a Fed that will need to be over aggressively, and allow for stocks to continue to rally this week.

sp500

The S&P 500 broke out last week, and the relative strength index also broke out, and I think we should continue to see the broader market continue to trend higher this week. I’m still looking for a rise to about 2,800 on the S&P 500 over the next couple of weeks.

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Consumer Stocks

We have seen Technology names breakout over the past week, and I think we see the consumer stocks finally breakout this week.

The XLY ETF is very close to breaking out, and the RSI also appears set to breakout, I think that happens this week.

consumers


Amazon

As I have written previously, Amazon is close to breaking out, and I think that breakout can happen this week, as it sits right below resistance.

amazon


Home Depot

Home Depot is another one that already has broken out, and is reporting results on May 15. Analysts are looking for earnings for $2.05, on revenue of $25.2 billion.  A return to $210 may be reach for later this week.

home depot


Disney

Disney is also likely heading higher, potentially back to $111.

disney

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Nvidia

Technology stocks have already broken out, and we are going to want to see a strong continuation this week. Nvidia is going to be the one to watch here. It has broken out, and the earnings results served as a retest of the breakout, and it held. Now we to see a follow-through higher.

nvidia


Micron

Micron also broke out, and I think a rise to about $54 is in the works.

micron


Alphabet

Alphabet is has been on a tear, I think that one continues, on towards $1150.

alphabet


AMD

AMD has also broken out and a rise to $13.70 could be coming shortly.  amd

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Biotech

Another group I will be watching are the biotechs, to see if they can build on Friday’s strength.  The XBI appears to have broken out, and the RSI did as well.  We could see a rise back to the highs around $96.

biotech


Nektar

Nektar shares bounced right off support around $70, the key this week is if the stock can get back over $83.

nktr


Acadia

Acadia may also be close to breaking out and a push back to $27 would sure be nice.

acadia stock

 

Mike

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

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Tags: #amazon #consumer #technology #biotech #homedepot #acadia #nektar #disney #nvidia #amd #micron

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technology stocks

Technology Stocks Are Getting Ready To Go Higher, Plus Much More


Technology Stocks Are Getting Ready To Go Higher

There were a couple of positive developments today. First, the S&P was higher, by 83bps, and closed at 2,663. Next, the close above that pesky resistance level at 2,660 we had been watching. Today also established that 2,672 is now the next resistance area. The last two times the S&P 500 got to 2,672 it was followed by two nasty downdrafts, resulting in a fall of about 3 percent back to 2,600, each time. A rise above 2,672 would be an immensely positive sign for a continuation of the most recent rally.

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S&P 500


Technology Stocks

A new trend line was born today for the technology sector, XLK, and for the first time in a while, the technology sector has a direction other than down. $67.10 continues to be a resistance level, but should it rise above resistance to say $67.50 it gives the ETF a perfect shot of filling the gap at $69.25.

technology

Nvidia

Nvidia looks to be heading back towards $245.

nvda

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Consumer Stocks

Discretionaries are continuing to struggle after hitting resistance around $102.

consumer

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Amazon

For right now, Amazon maybe the only stock capable of lifting the entire group. First, because it has a nearly 20 percent weighting in the ETF, second because today it closed above $1,440, a mild positive. There are still plenty of hurdles for Amazon to overcome; the most obvious is that the stock needs to stay $1,440.

amazon


Netflix

Netflix appears to be setting up for a breakout towards $322. The company reports results on Monday after the close; I will have a closer look at it over the weekend.

nflx


BANKS

Tomorrow will be a big day for the banks, with JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup all reporting before the open.

JP Morgan is slightly breaking out

jp morgan

But the setup in Citi doesn’t look nearly as strong.

citigroup

If the banks want to be a leading sector in the stock market, tomorrow will be the day they can prove they are capable are leading or not.

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Acadia

Why is Acadia not back to $22 already, after the BS story from Monday? I was shocked to see the FDA made a statement on it.

The stocks downdraft proves once again you can’t believe everything you read, and that understanding what you are invested is so extremely important.

At this point, I’d be happy if we filled the first gap at $22, but the one at $30 would be a whole lot better.

acad


Tesla

You know, I was gonna end after Acadia, but then I saw this stupid analyst comment that Tesla is going to fall $84, because, get this, “increasing competition.” Are there no cars sold today? Is Tesla the only automaker in the whole world? Of course not.

I’m sorry, but Tesla has competition today and has had competition since the moment Elon Musk thought about making a car. A car is a car, and the thought that because Audi or Mercedes is going to start making an electric car, people are suddenly going to stop buying Tesla’s seems crazy to me. If someone wants to buy a Mercedes, they can get one right now. I do not think the world has become entrenched enough in the thought process of buying only green cars, that everyone is now running to Tesla. Besides, just how green are electric cars? The energy to power the battery needs to come from somewhere.  They are undoubtedly better than gas but come on; you still need the energy.

By the way, once again, the proof is the Chevy Bolt, how many cars did Chevy sell so far in 2018? A crappy 4,375.  How many in 2017 total? 23,297. Btw, they cost nearly 3 times less than a Model S, so why not 3 times the sales if the electric part matter so much?

People are buying a brand; they aren’t buying it because of the engine or motor type.

Good luck tomorrow

-Mike

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Michael Kramer and Clients of Mott capital own shares of NFLX, TSLA, ACAD

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #stockmarket #sp500 #amazon #tesla #acadia #nvidia #netflix #jpmorgan #banks

stock market biotech

Stocks Rip Higher, Plus A Look At The Baker Brothers Top 5 Holdings


Stocks Rip Higher, Plus A Look At The Baker Brothers Top 5 Holdings

This stock market is getting frustrating. Yeah, I know the S&P 500 was up by 1.6 percent on the day, but the problem is that it closed at 2,656. In the midday commentary, I noted I was looking for a close above 2,660. I know it is only 4 points too but look at the trend line in the chart below.

S&P 500

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Technology

But here is the good news, the technology ETF, XLK broke above $66, and closed above $66. That is a victory! We can see that the XLK broke out on Apri 4, then retested the downtrend on April 6, and we have been higher since. If the breakout is for real, the the XLK could be on its way back to over $67. In fact, should the bulls juice get flowing, then a rise to $70 could be a genuine possibility.

techology

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Facebook

The majority of the XLK breakout should be to Facebook, finally rising above $161.5, after multiple failed its attempts. I’m guessing the market liked the testimony Mark Zuckerberg had to offer Congress. $166 will be a big test of how strong resistance is there.

facebook

JP Morgan

But not was all fabulous, because JP Morgan is still around $112.50, unable to break out, and earnings coming on Friday morning.

jpm


Amazon

Amazon tried to get above $1440 and is still cannot.

amazon


Biotech

Even biotechs had a healthy day, with the IBB rising by nearly 3 percent. It also broke out of that terrible downtrend it had been in since mid-March. That looks like a sextuple bottom in the IBB. Is there even such a thing? To my knowledge no, but there it is.

ibb

Biogen shares still look lousy.

biogen

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Baker Brothers

Even the Baker Brother’s top holdings are starting to go back up, barely. Their top holdings have performed lousy for some time as if some more prominent investors are betting against them, trying to keeping these stock down. Is that even possible? Look though. \

Alexion

Look at Alexion despite, the positive trial results, and a bunch of analysts upgrades this thing still can going. The average analyst price target on Ycharts is $158, 40 percent upside! What gives?

alexion


Incyte

Even Incyte bounced a bit today; it has been smoked since the negative trial results. This stock was once $150, over a year ago. Remember this was thought to be a buyout candidate back then.

incyte

Well BioMarin, not much to say here, but then again it has been that way for 2 years!

bmrn


S-GEN

The Seattle Genetics chart is not looking so hot, let’s say it is a tipping point and looks bearish.

sgen


Acadia

Finally Acadia, maybe, just maybe, the stock has puked out all the garbage and negativity, maybe. Thanks, CNN you did more damage than any sell-side analyst could have done.  Forget about filling gaps, let’s just get the stock stabilized, and hope the article didn’t destroy future sales. acadia

That’s it

Mike

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

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Tags: #stockmarket #bakerbrothers #acadia #biotech #alexion #technology #amazon #incyte #facebook  

roku acadia biogen nvidia tesla

Roku’s Borrow Rate Rises, plus Biogen, Acadia, Tesla, and Nvidia


Roku’s Borrow Rate Rises, plus Biogen, Acadia, Tesla, and Nvidia

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The sell-off continued again with the S&P 500 trading down to roughly 2,646, where a sturdy level of support lies. So for now, it looks like we have held, and my guess is that we could have another few points to the downside at most, and I expect that we turn higher again.

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Biotech

Biotech shares have also found some support around $113.75 on the broader NASDAQ Biotech $IBB ETF. I drew in a downtrend, just because it seems prudent at this point to do so, from the peak at $119.25 to $115.70. The breakout from the past week seems convincing enough to me to think we begin moving higher.

biotech

The XBI also failed at resistance, and we have seen a retracement the past couple of days as well. For now, the setup is still bullish, and if the pullback extends to $93.60, it is not the end of the world.

biotech


Incyte

Incyte shares have pulled back too, bringing into question the breakout. But for now, the pullback appears to be a fill the gap scenario more than a then a failed breakout. Tomorrow will be telling.

incy


Regeneron

Regeneron shares have risen, but a big test looms at $352 with an intense level of resistance waiting, my guess resistance holds, and the stock moves lower.

regeneron


Acadia

Acadia shares fell hard in recent days but have held support at around $25, and I think that means shares could be headed back towards $26.5. My hunch or gut feeling, as we approach the depression data later this fall, we may see some buyers or traders looking to cover short ahead of the news, and that could help to lift the price. Short Interest stood at roughly 10.3 million as of February 28.

acadia

Biogen

Biogen shares also started to bounce a bit too. It would be a positive should this stock start rising again for the group.

biogen


Roku

Roku’s borrow rate continues to surge, according to TradeAlert, the rate is over 100 percent. Insane.

 

Roku

In fact, we can also see the implied volatility levels on the options are rising the further into the future one goes.  It would suggest that traders are betting on the volatility in the stock to continuing rising, and thus the risk in the stock is rising as well.

roku

As of the February 28, short-interest surged to 9.946 million shares, representing 63.5 percent of the float!  That is massive!

ROKU Short Interest Chart

ROKU Short Interest data by YCharts

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AMD

AMD shares are entering a danger zone, with the stock moving towards the cusp of a breakdown. The $11.20 technical support significant, a break below send the price towards the $10.50 region.

 

amd

Tesla

In the latest round of Tesla drama, CNBC is reporting that the company is churning out flawed parts. When I saw this, I was like “is the old news or new news?” That is right it was just at the end of January they reported batteries were being put together by hand.

I’m not sure what the delivery rates or how batteries are being assembled, I’m not even sure today’s news is even new? It sounds a lot like old news. But it doesn’t matter because the stock went down as a result.

Somebody made a big bet share would fall to about $250 bucks today, with the purchase of about 4,000 contracts of the April $250 puts. The notional value is only about $500k. Not huge, but undoubtedly interesting.


Nvidia

Today was RBC’s turn to raise its price target on NVIDIA, by an astonishing $5 to $285, talk about sticking your neck out there. But what I find interest is that price adjustment comes despite Nvidia potentially facing a notable slowdown in cryptocurrency benefits. But of course, they see a scenario of $12+ in earnings per share by the year the year 2021, on data center and gaming! That is nearly $2.50 ABOVE consensus of $9.50 per share. So why only give the stock 15 percent upside, if you are looking for earning to come in 26% higher than consensus. I don’t know. Sorry, I don’t get it.

Until Tomorrow! Good Luck!

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Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own shares of ACAD, TSLA

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #technology #roku #tesla #nvidia #biotech #biogen #incyte #acadia  

salesforce adobe acadia

Examining Acadia, Adobe, and SalesForce – A Look At The Week To Come


Examining Acadia, Adobe, and SalesForce – A Look At The Week To Come

Inflation watch is not over just yet, this week the consumer price index (CPI) will come Tuesday. According to Bloomberg, estimates are calling for a rise of 2.2 percent year-over-year, while ex-food and energy a gain of 1.9 percent y/y. Then on Wednesday morning, we get the Producer Price Index, and estimates are calling for a month over month gain of 0.2 percent. If the results come in as expected my guess is that market will be pleased, these estimates are not a sign of an overheating economy or inflation.

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This week will also mark quadruple witching expiration, which means Friday could be an exciting day with a high level of volatility, just keep that in mind.

The Wall Street Journal reported late on Friday that now Intel may look to acquire Broadcom, in a case of the hunter becoming the hunted. It is incredible the that drama keeps getting more and more entangled. I have no idea where it goes from here, but perhaps with Intel in pursuit to acquire Broadcom trying to block Broadcom’s acquisition of Qualcomm, maybe Broadcom backs off. There are plenty of other chip companies around that Broadcom could fit into its portfolio. But the news is likely to give investors even more reason to keep aggressively buying the chip stocks.


Adobe

Adobe has been a fantastic stock over the years, with the stock up 185 percent over the past three years! The chart is incredible, and it seems to have broken out yet again and looks to be entering a “Netflix” ramp-up on the charts.

adobe

Earnings in 2018 are expected to grow at 45.7 percent to $6.28 per shares, while revenue is forecast to rise by 20 percent to $8.77 billion in 2018. But now, analyst views are pointing to earnings growth of about 13 percent in 2019 to $7.10 and 15 percent growth in 2020 to $8.20. Is this a Nvidia type of story where analysts are underestimating growth, for the company only to come out and top estimates? It may not be the case with Adobe because last quarter they just surprised the street on earnings by 9 percent, and 2.7 percent on revenue, nowhere near a Nvidia type of beat.

ADBE Price Target Chart

ADBE Price Target data by YCharts

Of the 33 analysts that cover the stock, 82 percent have a buy or outperform rating, while the average price target on the stock is at roughly $218. Are analysts price target adjustments on the way? Potentially. The stock is not cheap at 31 times one-year forward earnings estimates, and 10.5 times one-year forward sales. Tough call….

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SalesForce

SalesForce is another stock that looks to have broken out, but again not all that different to Adobe.  Earnings are forecast to climb by nearly 52 percent in 2018 to $2.05, while revenue is expected to grow by almost 21 percent to $12.67 billion. But the earnings growth slows to the mid-20 percent range, which is still very fast, but it comes with a high price tag, at 50 times one-year forward earnings.

saleforce

The stock is trading well above its historical trading channel, and while 91 percent of the 45 analysts covering the stock have a buy or outperforming rating on the stock, their average price target is only $135.88, only 6 percent from the current price.

CRM Price Target Chart

CRM Price Target data by YCharts


Acadia

Acadia has performed horribly since results came out, and to be honest, there was nothing terrible enough to warrant shares being down by 21 percent since. I find it interesting that analysts have raised their revenue estimates for the year 2020 to $838 million! Meanwhile, the street is looking for revenue of $263 million in 2018, and $443 million in 2019. In fact, Wall Street is modeling for the company to earn $1.78 per share by the year 2020. Those are significant revenue and earnings growth numbers, the only questions I have is what are the estimates assuming? Is it just the market for Parkinson Disease Psychosis, or are they factoring in the success of future trials? I’m not sure, the only trial that we will get color on anytime soon is the Depression trial, so it is likely all based on PDP.

 

ACAD Chart

ACAD data by YCharts

The average price target on the stock is $50.11, yet shares trade at only $25.33 today, so there again, another example of a big disconnect by the street, and the stock. Who is right? We shall find out eventually.

That is gonna be it, for now, good luck!

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Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own shares of ACAD

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #intel #broadcom #qualcomm #acadia #salesforce #adobe

Acadia, Biogen, Celgene, Regeneron In Focus – A Look At The Week Ahead


Acadia, Biogen, Celgene, Regeneron In Focus – A Look At The Week Ahead

The stock market will look to build on last weeks gains, and it will be a week filled with economic data and Fed talk.

The one segment of the market rally that has been missing has been the biotech sector, and it is no wonder when stocks like Celgene, Biogen, and Regeneron have been in the gutter. Acadia gets a shot at breaking the negative news cycle this week and perhaps giving the group a boost.

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Economic Outlook

Fed Chair Powell will speak to the House on Tuesday starting at 10 am while talking to the Senate on Thursday at 10 am. Fourth quarter GDP will come on Wednesday, and the consensus is looking for a reading of 2.5 percent. But the significant reading will occur on Thursday when we get Personal Income and Outlays. Personal Income is expected to have a reading of 0.3%, while PCE is expected to show a y/y gain of 1.7 percent, while core y/y is supposed to rise by 1.5 percent.

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Biotech

Biotech has been a weak group, and the internals for the leadership is nothing to write home about. Shares of Celgene, Biogen, and Regeneron have fallen on hard times, with these three stocks accounting for nearly 25 percent of the Nasdaq Biotech ETF (IBB) it is hard to imagine the group can advance much without them.


Celgene

Celgene shares have seen a disastrous fall from grace, shares have fallen by an astounding 35 percent from a high near $147 to almost $95.50. The company has made a number of moves to help bolster the pipeline and calm nerves around the dependence on Revlimid, recently announcing it would buy Juno, but still, shares have suffered. Admittedly, this one has gone against me, and I’m not thrilled with the outcome.

The good news is that the stock has managed to hold support around $94. The bad news is that every time it has shown a sign of life over the past few months the stock just goes the other way.

Celg

Despite the recent acquisitions, analysts have yet to up their revenue targets, remaining reasonably flat, while trading at Gilead type of valuations of 9.3 times 2019 earnings estimate of $10.22.

CELG Revenue Estimates for Current Fiscal Year Chart

CELG Revenue Estimates for Current Fiscal Year data by YCharts

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Biogen

Biogen shares are in the same camp, having fallen from nearly $370 to $283, a decline of 23 percent. On February 7, the company announced it would stop developing Tysabri to treat acute ischemic stroke patients. Then adding insult to injury, one week later the company announced it would be adding patients to its trial in Alzheimer’s disease drug for aducanumab, creating more fear.

biogen

The chart like Celgene shows the stock has gotten to critical support to $282. It had seemed for some time that Biogen was destined to reach $400, but the negative news flow has just changed that direction.


Regeneron

Regeneron shares have broken down, and what had been a failed breakout attempt, now puts shares in of danger of heading lower to $273.

 

regeneron

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Acadia

Acadia will post fourth-quarter results on Tuesday. Analysts are looking for the company to report that revenue climbed by over 275 percent in the fourth quarter to $45.18 million, on a loss of $0.57. More important will be any commentary on 2018 guidance, where analysts are looking for revenue of $253 million.

When looking at the current run rate of quarterly revenue growth, we can see the growth has been relatively linear. Should revenue come in at analysts estimates or higher, it would continue to put the company on pace to have revenue of $300 million in 2018, about $50 million more than expectations, but we will surely find out more details

acadia

The stock has been a bust for years now, and it seems that every piece of positive news has been met with selling pressure.

acadia

Will something change soon? Hopefully, but at this point frustration with this stock runs deep. It feels as though every time I think the stock is about to breakout, it fails. My expectations for revenue growth are solid when it comes to the quarter and next year. But when it comes to how the stock will perform, I  at a loss, and tired of guessing, getting my hopes to only be met with disappointment.

If the fundamentals continue to improve, one has to believe one day it will be reflected in the stock price.

Good luck his week.

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Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capial own shares of CELG and ACAD

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

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Tags: #sp500 #stocks #biotech #celgene #acadia #regeneron #biogen

biotech stocks

Biotech Stocks Continue To Soar, More Gains To Come

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Biotech Stocks Continue To Soar, More Gains To Come

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Biotech stocks continue to soar, and Biogen and Gilead had big days on Friday. Biogen jumped by nearly 4 percent, taking shares up $368, after reporting robust result on Thursday. Gilead shares jumped by over 5 percent, to over $85, after getting an upgrade from Jefferies and a price target increase to $95.

We have been talking about these two stocks for some time, and the breakout shouldn’t surprise anyone. It seems like the other day when we were focused on Biogen breaking over $318, and Gilead potentially rising to $82.

There appears to be very little standing in the way from Biogen rising to about $400 from its current level.

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biogen

Gilead also has very little standing between its current price and a rise to $92 as well, but that, of course, doesn’t mean it happens in a straight line.

gilead

Regeneron shares have moved out of its downtrend for the first time since June of 2017. That could help the stock rise to about $420. We can see in the chart the stock test the downtrend and it bounced. With the strength of the sector, the setup looks good.

regenernon

Alexion shares also look close to a big breakout, and could see a rise to about $145.

alxnAcadia has cleared two big hurdles, first breaking above a multi-month downtrend, and then resistance above $31. Next up a multi-year downtrend around $34, which could send shares to about $40.

Vertex has also seen its shares rise substantially.

vertex

With many of the big biotech stocks coming back and primed for more gains, the sector is likely not finished rising.

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

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Tags: #biotech #stocks #biogen #gilead #acadia #regeneron #vertex #alexion

 

Biotech stocks

Why Biotech Stocks Will Continue To Reach Record Heights

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Why Biotech Stocks Will Continue To Reach Record Heights

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Biotech stocks continue to rip higher, with the S&P Biotech ETF ($XBI) reaching a new record high, and the Nasdaq Biotech ETF ($IBB) quickly running to $122.

The XBI is now up by over 12 percent on the year, while the IBB is up about 10 percent, and the rally in both appears likely to continue. The IBB has little if any resistance standing in its way, until $122.

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biotech

When looking at the components of the XBI, we can see that only three stocks out of the top 25 are down so far in 2018. While the big gainers have obviously been Juno and Bioverativ, others such as Loxo Oncology ($LOXO), Array Biosciences ( $ARRY), and Radius Health ($RDUS), have all jumped by over 20 percent.

Gilead

While the big names like Gilead ($GILD), Biogen ($BIIB), and Amgen ($AMGN) are not among the big gainers, they are putting together solid years. Gilead has jumped by roughly 13 percent and appears poised to continue to rise.

The chart below shows how Gilead shares cleared a critical resistance level around $80, and that could set the stage for a rise towards $90.

Amgen

Amgen shares have also surged to record highs as well and likely has more gains ahead as well. Plus it will now have strong support around $191 to $192 going forward.

amgn

Biogen

Biogen shares are nearing a massive breakout, one which could send the stock much higher, with the potential to rise to all-time highs. A rise above $355  sets the stage for the breakout. The company is set to report results on January 25, before the open.

biogen

Acadia

Even shares of struggling Acadia ($ACAD) are breaking out of a multi-month down trend, and what appears to a firm double bottom now in place, perhaps we can see this stock have a multi-year breakout, should it share price rise above $34.

acadiaWith M&A coming back to the front center, the biotech stocks are starting to see life again.

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

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Tags: #biotech #stocks #acadia #celgene #amgen #biogen #gilead #loxo #array #radius

 

 

 

facebook acadia twitter stocks stock market

Acadia and Facebook Rise, Twitter Slumps, More To Come

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Acadia and Facebook Rise, Twitter Slumps, More To Come

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The stock market continues its advance in 2018, and this time it was the Biotech group that led the market higher after Celgene announced it was acquiring Juno, and Sanofi buying Bioverativ. It led a massive breakout in the group, the one we had been eagerly waiting for and talking about happening.  Today we take a look at Acadia, Twitter, and Facebook

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Acadia

Acadia Pharmaceuticals even managed to show some signs of life, with the stock rising by nearly 8 percent on the day. Shares have not broken out, so don’t get too excited yet, but they are surely nearing one. We can see how close that breakout came and it will not take much of a follow-through tomorrow to see that breakout happen.

acadia

Facebook

Facebook shares took another step to recouping those losses after the news feed revamp. Shares are approaching $188, and it will be essential to see how the stock responses when it gets there. Will it fill the gap and move lower, or will it continue to rise?

facebook

Volume has been strong, and well above the 3-month moving average, while the relative strength index is nowhere near overbought or oversold. Plus the stock also has the benefit of a strong stock market, and more importantly a healthy technology sector. It would seem a rise to $188, and above is likely coming.

Twitter

Twitter shares appear to be in an interesting scenario and on the cusp of a reasonably significant breakdown. The chart below shows how the stock has broken a critical uptrend, which dates back to mid-October. But it also sits on a considerable support level as well.

twitter

Should Twitter’s stock fail and fall below $23, it seems the stock could be on its way lower back to $18.

Back later with Netflix.

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

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Tags: #sp500 #biotech #facebook #twitter #acadia

 

 

biotech baker stocks

Biotech Stocks Continue To Rip Higher, Plus A Look At The Baker Bros. Holdings

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Biotech Stocks Continue To Rip Higher As Breakout Nears

What a big difference a few days can make, right? It was just Tuesday when everyone was trying to figure why Biotech stocks were tanking.  Today you have the NASDAQ Biotech ETF IBB ($IBB) nearing a breakout, which could send the shares surging higher to about to $122, a rise of 9 percent. What gives?

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What gives is that Monday’s episode, as I wrote, was a pullback nothing more, nothing less. It was just enough to remind everybody that the group can get wild at times. The ETF continues to grind higher, and I think it is approaching a breakout. Should the ETF rise above $114 it should get us there.

biotech stocks

The table below I find super interesting because it is the past one-year performance for the ETF holdings. The returns of Nektar ($NKTR) and Sage ($SAGE) are pretty impressive. But I want to pay attention to the bottom five stocks. Do you notice anything they all have in common?

biotech stocks

Baker Stocks

Well, Incyte ($INCY), Seattle Genetics ($SGEN), and Alexion ($ALXN) are all Baker Brother, a large biotech Hedge Fund, holdings. But they are not any holdings within the portfolio, they are numbers 1,2, and 3 holdings, 4 is not on the list, but it is Acadia Pharmaceuticals ($ACAD), and 5 BioMarin ($BMRN). Look at the performance over the past year. They have been crushed by the IBB ETF, which is up 21 percent. Amazing.

IBB Chart

IBB data by YCharts

Does it mean anything? Probably not? Maybe just bad luck I guess? I to this point haven’t been able to find a correlation that would suggest otherwise.

Seattle Genetics

Seattle Genetics appears to be trying to form an uptrend, while holdings support around $51.50. The stock has developed what seems to a bullish symmetrical triangle.

seattle geneticsAcadia

Acadia shares have been range-bound for what feels like years; one can see a triangle has formed, which could be viewed as a bullish signal.

acadia

Incyte

Incyte shares are desperately trying to form a bottom at $93. A break below $93 pushes it lower towards $80.

incyte

Alexion

Alexion, like Acadia and Seattle Genetics, is also in the middle of a bullish symmetrical triangle as well.

alexion

BioMarin

Meanwhile, shares of BioMarin have gone nowhere, and look like they may continue to be range bound.

biomarin

Until Tomorrow!

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

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Tags: #biotech #alexion #acadia #seattle #genetics #nektar #sage #incyte

micron

Trouble Brewing For Micron? Plus Nvidia, Acadia, Visa, MasterCard, Altria

Trouble Brewing For Micron? Plus Nvidia, Acadia, Visa, MasterCard, Altria

Parts of the market continue to perform, while other parts are continuing to struggle. The chip stocks Nvidia, Micron, and just continue to come under tremendous pressure, and what had been stellar years are beginning to become, well mortal.

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AVGO Chart

AVGO data by YCharts

Nvidia Shares

Nvidia’s trading pattern just continues to deteriorate and for now seems to point to a stock that could continue heading lower.  The next level of concern should come around $175, from there it is a long way down.

Micron

Micron shares attempted to rally, but failed to break resistance at $45 and have turned lower. What seems startling as we continue to look more closely at this name, is how earnings estimates are expected to fall over the next three years.

micron chips nvidia

As the chart below shows estimates are expected to fall from 7.98 in fiscal 2018, to $6.79 in 2019, and $6.21 in 2020.

MU EPS Estimates for 2 Fiscal Years Ahead Chart

MU EPS Estimates for 2 Fiscal Years Ahead data by YCharts

While revenue estimates show flat revenue growth over the next three years, which proves problematic for the stock going forward. No revenue growth plus earnings contraction equal margin deterioration.  2017 has been a good year for Micron and margin expansion, should it go the other way it could foretell further declines in the stocks. Look at the correlation between gross profit margins and the stock price.

MU Gross Profit Margin (Quarterly) Chart

MU Gross Profit Margin (Quarterly) data by YCharts

Interesting for sure.

Visa and MasterCard

Another set of stocks like Visa and MasterCard, which got slammed before have not only bounced back but are now higher than they were before the steep sell-off on December 4.

V Chart visa

V data by YCharts

A tale of two tapes, What does it mean? Not sure, it could be year-end profit taking or shorts that are starting to pile into the chip stock. Nvidia and Micron have seen an uptick in short interest recently.

NVDA Short Interest Chart

NVDA Short Interest data by YCharts

Altria

Talk about a comeback story, but have you noticed shares of Altria recently? It was crushed in the mid-summer, falling from $74 to under $61, and now they are back to $72. It shows how irrational the market can be at times, and why panic selling isn’t always the right thing to do.

altria

The FDA had purposed changing the rules around nicotine levels in cigarettes, and the stock tanked. But any change to the regulations would likely take years to happen if it ever happened. So now, the stock is  rising as reality comes back to the market’s sense.

Acadia And The ETF’s

Lastly, behold the effects of index funds and ETFs, the subject Acadia Pharmaceuticals. When you look at the chart of the IWM, the ETF for Russell 2000, and Acadia stock price, you don’t see much.

ACAD Chart acadia

ACAD data by YCharts

But when you do it as a ratio, it looks like the chart below. What is most fascinating is that the IWM has risen by nearly 32 percent over the past three years, while Acadia is down about 8 percent. But when Acadia falls, it stays at a ratio of nearly 5.25 to the ETF.

Fundamental Chart Chart

Fundamental Chart data by YCharts

The same happens when compared to the IBB.

Fundamental Chart Chart

Fundamental Chart data by YCharts

Interesting for sure, it tells us that sometimes stocks go up and down for no reason other than because ETF’s or indexes are going up and down. It is important to remember that when ETF are falling in price the underlying stocks that make up the basket of shares in the ETF are also being sold, and when ETF rise, they are buying the stocks in the basket.

In this case, we can see the effects because Acadia is very tightly held for the most part, with the Baker Brother and Fidelity owning nearly 35 percent of the shares, while index funds for Vanguard and Blackrock own another 11 percent.

Even more, the Biotech ETF ($XBI) owns 2.2 percent of Acadia shares, while the iShares Nasdaq Biotech Fund ($IBB) own 1.36 percent of shares.

Which way will Acadia go from here? Just watch the IWM and IBB and multiple or divide, it could be just that easy. That’s if you aren’t investing in it for the long-term.

Night…


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Top 3 Predictions for the 2018 Market

Seeking Alpha Author Michael Kramer joins Cheddar to give his top three predictions for 2018 market trends. The first one: Tesla will hit a $100 billion market cap! He explains why he’s comparing the auto company to Amazon in his analysis and prediction.

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Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own shares of $ACAD $MA $V $MO

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2017 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #technology #biotech #ACADIA #MASTERCARD #VISA #MICRON #NVIDIA #ALTRIA #ETF #CHIPS #STOCKS

 

Thematic Growth Investing

GE, Tesla, Celgene, Acadia, Cisco, Wal-Mart – Monster Review

The Monster Week In Review: November 17

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GE

It was a big week with some significant news, which started Monday morning with GE announcing it would cut its dividend, and lower its full-year 2018 guidance. Shares of GE ($GE) fell about 10 percent this week alone, and are now down by 42 percent year-to-date. With the S&P 500 up by over 15 percent in 2017 and underperforming, by,  get this, 57 percentage points.

GE Chart

GE data by YCharts

Tesla

The week ended with Tesla ($TSLA) finally showing off its new Semi-Truck. But perhaps most impressive was the new Tesla Roadster. Wow. Zero to 60 in under 2 seconds, 600-mile range.  Ferrari and Porsche were just put on notice,  that is for sure.

I don’t expect much out of the semi-truck business, to be truthful. The market is estimated at $30 billion a year in North America according to Bloomberg. It comes down to how much of the market share Tesla can capture. Even if they should win 10 percent of the market, it would add only $3 billion in revenue, and would likely be a drag on overall margins.

TSLA Annual Revenue Estimates Chart

TSLA Annual Revenue Estimates data by YCharts

According to Ycharts, Tesla is expected to have revenue of roughly $28 billion by the year 2020, which means the Truck could maybe add $3 to 4 billion to that if we aggressively target a 10 percent share right off the bat, which seems highly unlikely. But perhaps the technology being put into this truck could be easily converted into other products, like the Tesla Bus.

The most significant news out of the Tesla event wasn’t the truck or the roadster, it was the hyper-charger, which Tesla claimed could give the truck a 400-mile charge in 30 mins. I’d have to imagine that Tesla has figured out how to put this technology on all of their cars, which means every car could get a full charge in under 30 minutes.

Additionally, the idea that Tesla would be powering the hyper charger through solar energy stored in batteries is a genius idea. Again, once the company recoups the cost of the equipment and installation, the rest of the money Tesla makes on the charger is profit.

Additionally, once the Model S is equipped with the 200 kWh battery pack in the new roadster, which I can’t imagine is too far down the road, the range issue for the Tesla is officially dead. The Model S would likely be able to drive further on one charge than a car on a full tank of gasoline.

So while the truck and roadster stole the headlines, the real news was the hyper-charger and the 200 kWh battery.

I’m still waiting for the solar paint or solar roof panels on the car. The day will come.


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Nailing The Biotech Breakout

Biotech’s Signal A Bottom

GE: Just Not Worth It Anymore

Disney Is Just Too Cheap


Biotech

Biotech has been absolutely crushed over the past month with shares of the Nasdaq Biotech IBB ($IBB), down about 8 percent, which is an improvement.

IBB Chart

IBB data by YCharts

The ETF appears to have bottomed out at the $300 -303 level again, as it did back in August. That region served as stiff resistance on the way up, and it shall act as strong support on the way down. It appears that ETF has bottomed and could be head higher again, back towards $320, as we previously noted during the week.

Biotech

The chart below shows that double bottom, and how quickly the ETF took out the $309 region, it seems like we could now fill that gap, at $322.

biotech

Celgene

One can get further confirmation by looking at some of the components. Celgene ($CELG) shares have broken out, rising above $102.5. Does the stock go straight up to $120, no but it is likely to head in that direction on both a technical and fundamental basis.

celg

Acadia

So why do we track and follow the ETF”s? First of all, it tells us the general direction of the sector, and it shows which direction stock within the ETF are likely to move. Acadia Pharmaceuticals ($ACAD) is a perfect example of this, with the way the stock goes up and down at multiples to that of the IBB. Just look, Notice anything?

IBB Chart

IBB data by YCharts

What about like this?

IBB Chart

IBB data by YCharts

Notice when Acadia and the IBB rise, the IBB trades at 7 to 8 times that of Acadia, but when the IBB falls, its trades at 11.5 times the price of Acadia. If you want to know which Acadia will go rise or fall just track the IBB if the IBB rises, Acadia rise and trades at a ratio of about 7 to one. If the IBB falls,  Acadia falls at a rate of about 11 to 1.

Cisco

csco

Cisco ($CSCO) shares have broken out to a level not seen since 2001, what is that 16 years! That is a long time to have to wait. Shares are likely going higher as well. But the stock could see a short-term pull before that longer-term rise happens.

It seems more than likely shares of the stock retreat back toward $34.50, filling the gap, before turning and making a run towards $45.

Wal-Mart

We’ll finish the week with Wal-Mart ($WMT) yes Wal-Mart, because it not every day that Wal-Mart trades like a high-flying tech stock. The share of the stock rose by over 7 percent to an all-time high, closing the week at $97.40. The company topped estimates when reporting its results this week, and its online business drove it.

wmt

That is a wrap.

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We offer a lot of great commentaries all week talking about the major and relevant market events. Be sure to subscribe to get this all and of all free commentaries sent directly to your inbox or follow us on Twitter.

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Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital owns shares of TSLA,CELG,ACAD

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2017 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #GE #Tesla #Biotech #Celgene #Acadia #Cisco #walmart

 

S&P 500 Nasdaq Bull Bear

Acadia’s Phase II Results: An Analysis, plus S&P 500 2,600 and Beyond

The S&P 500

 

The S&P 500 is now just 9 points away from our 2,600 target. The question is where the market goes from here. The real problem is the path in which the index takes. Does it follow the blue or green trend lines higher from current levels? The upper blue line is a long-term resistance level that finds its origin to back to 2010 and last came into play in the fall of 2015, when the market went through a period or sideways trading with extreme levels of volatility.

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Meanwhile the green trend line finds it orgin back to the February 2016 lows after coming after the period of volatility. At this point it could be hard to say which way it goes, but it would not surprise me to see a pull-back of sorts sending the index back to 2550 region or perhaps the 2,500 level. It would certainly be nothing catastrophic and would likely be quiet healthy, in the range of 4 percent.

[poll id=”8″]

It would set up and an eventual move towards 2,700 in the early months of 2018. Given the estimated earnings growth, and expectations for full-year earnings in 2018 of $131.36.  I still think the index could rise to 3,100, giving it a PE ratio of roughly 23 times 2018 earnings. At 23 times earnings, the S&P 500 would be trading at its historical PE ratio of since 2015.

S&P 500 Earnings Per Share TTM Forward Estimate Chart, Acadia Pharmaceuticals

S&P 500 Earnings Per Share TTM Forward Estimate data by YCharts

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 Acadia

Acadia shares got slammed today, after Leerink questioned the result of Acadia’s Phase 2 Alzheimers Disease Psychosis trial results, which were released on Friday, November 3. Firstly, having read the press release and reviewing the note, it would seem there are questions regarding the separation between the placebo arm and the pimavanserin arm at week 6. First, there could be any number of reason why the placebo arm retraced at week 6. Second, when reviewing data from the trial in Parkinson Disease Psychosis, the same effect happen in week six as well, it is very clear in the diagram on page 5 of the Lancet report.

Second, Acadia’s ADP data from Friday shows a Cohen’s d score of .32, which falls in the small to medium range for effect size, for the overall study, while the group with severe psychosis showed a substantial effect size of 0.72.  There have been plenty of other atypical antipsychotics that failed miserable using the same NPH-NH scale, so the results if anything should be encouraging.

Additionally, the advisory committee for pimavanserin’s approval for Parkinson Disease Psychosis also taught us a couple of things as well. As some argue that meaningfulness could be measured as a change from baseline, not just versus placebo, page 273. 

As for the comparison with ALKS 5461, a drug for the treatment of depression has about the only thing in common with pimavanserin in that they are both for psychiatric indications. But when reviewing the data for ‘5461 one can find the can shifts in both the placebo arm and the drug arm for various reasons.

Again, ADP is, and Dementia-related psychosis is a population with no currently approved treatment options, and the trial design in phase III is very different from the Phase II results.  The Phase III study is will measure time from randomization to relapse for 26 weeks, and the secondary measure will be time until discontinuation. The results are not expected until the year 2020.

So while investors were bearish on the name, the result of Phase III will not have any meaning for the company for many years, while the drug sales in Parkinson Disease Psychosis will be the driving force between now and then.

Meanwhile, the street should be focused on the ability for pimavanserin in depression and schizophrenia which are currently due in the fall and winter of 2018-2019. Afterall, pimavanserin is a Selective Serotonin Inverse Agonist targeting the 5HT-2A receptor.  While also having positive results in schizophrenia when tried in combination with Risperdol and Haloperidol way back when.

That is all for today.

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We offer a lot of great commentaries all week talking about the major and relevant market events. Be sure to subscribe to get this all and of all free commentaries sent directly to your inbox or follow us on Twitter.

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Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own shares of ACAD and ALKS

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

 

#acadia $acad $spy $spx #sp500