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Could Netflix Move Into Music? The Daily Rundown - MCM Market Recap

Could Netflix Move Into Music? The Daily Rundown – MCM Market Recap



Could Netflix Move Into Music? The Daily Rundown

MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN SHARES OF nFLX AND TSLA

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Netflix

I thought Netflix may have broken out early in the day but was unable to hold the gains.  It has a solid uptrend in place, and the RSI certainly looks like it too is ready to breakout.

Into Music

I have been thinking a little bit about Netflix and wondering if it makes sense for them to get into a music service. They have 125 million subscribers, and maybe for an extra $5 a month they can bundle in a streaming music service. The Netflix app is already on my phone, making it easy to likely get conversions.

Yes, the streaming music space is getting crowded, but how many people would gladly pay $20 a month for music and content.  I’m sure a lot.

Doing some back of the envelope math, even if you consider the 55 million US subscribers, and a conversion rate of 30 percent, it could easily add about $250 million in extra revenue a quarter, and just further solidify the company’s dominance, in streaming media.

netflix


Broader Market

It was a pretty quiet day all around, stocks couldn’t build any positive momentum all day long, and the sellers just came in at the end of the day.  When it comes down to it, the S&P 500 was only down about 30 bps, certainly nothing to fret over, and refilling some of the gap created yesterday.

sp500

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Industrials

Industrials had a great day yesterday, and today we gave back a portion of that significant gain.  Again, some investors blame trade tension; I blame the Algo’s playing a game of fill the gap.

xli


Boeing

The same thing happened with Boeing.

boeing

Chips

The setup in the chip stocks still looks strong.

chips

Micron

Micron has a lot to do with the chips being strong; the stock jumped by about 6.5 percent today.  But, be mindful of that gap, just like the other charts above show us.  A fall back to $56 or even $54 is entirely possible.

micron

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Tesla

Tesla certainly has an unusual setup, with the stock sitting at support around $272, while the RSI continues to trend lower.  It is the stock that everyone loves to hate. It needs to find a bounce off this support level. Otherwise, things might get difficult for the longs. The short interest as of April 30 was at the highest level ever in the stock’s history at 39 million.

tesla


Now on to some boring, but very important stuff

Dollar Index

The dollar index has stopped rising for now, and where the dollar goes can have ramification on other parts of the market. For now, it struggles around $94, and should it break above $94, then is going to be a significant problem for commodities and multinational stocks. Should it managed to reverse and head lower, that is going to help fuel Oil rise even higher.


Eurodollar Rates

The Eurodollar deposit rate is perhaps telling us that demand for dollars abroad may be easing, and that may be a sign that the recent rise in the dollar is nearing an end. Back on March 20, I speculated that the rising Eurodollar rates were a sign the US dollar would begin to surge, and indeed since that time, the dollar index has climbed from 90.50 to a high of 94 yesterday, a climb of about 3.8 percent. So indeed, we should pay attention to the cost to borrow dollars aboard.eurodollar

Libor

Additionally, 3-month libor rates are stalling out, and perhaps that is a sign that expectations for future Fed rate hikes are cooling. It would surely be nice if that were the case.

 

For the most to think we are in a low inflation environment with strong earnings growth and a robust economy. Hard for me to bearish in this type of situation, I continue to see more and more signs of sectors breaking out, and individual stocks as well.  Outside of some unforeseen geopolitical event, I think the most significant risk to the economy and the markets is an over aggressive Fed. Nothing would make me happier than the Fed to leave things alone at this point.

That is it for today.

-Mike


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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #netflix #music #tesla #sp500 #industrials #boeing #dollar #eurodollar #libor

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Stocks Really Breakout, A Look At Roku, Where Does Oil Go

Stocks Really Breakout, A Look At Roku, Where Does Oil Go

Stocks Really Breakout, A Look At Roku, Where Does Oil Go

Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own shares of TSLA, GOOGL, NFLX

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The S&P 500 was in rally mode, and it was a strong day across the board. Biotech, Tech, Financials, along with Energy.  The setup in the S&P 500 continues to remain very strong, and I think we may have just broken out.

sp500

In fact, the relative strength index is also showing signs of breaking out, and it would take a rise to about 60 on the RSI to confirm the bullish move.I’d like to see another strong trading day tomorrow, to prove today’s rise was real and give the index some breathing room. But the underlying sector charts are looking reasonably healthy as well.


Technology

We can see the same setup in the chart of the technology ETF (XLK), along with a strong setup in the RSI.

xlk

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Google

Alphabet shares appear to be breaking out, and I noted in an article earlier today on Investopedia, I think it might rise to around $1150.

alphabet


Netflix

Netflix appears to be on its way towards $340.

netflix

Microsoft too.

microsoft


Micron

It isn’t much different in some of the semis either. It was Monday I wrote that Micron was in the final phases of a descending wedge, and sure enough it broke out today, $54 appears to be next.

micron

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Tesla

Tesla is on the doorsteps of a significant breakout as well, currently trading around $310, which could send shares higher on towards $330.  In case you missed it, California voted to have all new houses equipped with rooftop solar panels.


Biotech

Biotechs are also looking relatively strong as well, and I still think that the group can continue to work higher. I know there is nervousness about this drug pricing speech that is now coming on Friday. But I have been saying since 2016, that I think any policy on drug pricing comes in the form of a quicker approval process, to increase competition.  I don’t see it happening through price controls.

biotech


Oil

Well, Oil is within 4 points of my $75 target, which by the way I called late last year. I have been thinking about where it goes from here.  I do not see it going much higher in the short-term. In fact, if I were a betting man, I’d say we see $60 before we see $80.

oil

I hope everyone realizes once Oil stops rising the whole inflation narrative will disappear too? Right? I’m talking to myself; Of course, they don’t.


Roku

So, I have to say that the Roku’s numbers look solid on the surface, two things stand out as concerns to me. Player revenue fell 3 percent from last year, and I guess that revenue will continue to decline. Which means the revenue numbers you are left to truly rely on to drive that future growth is just the platform.

Also, I’m curious as to why platform revenue fell sequentially, to $75 million from $85 million? Interesting. Platform gross profit margins also fell both from last year and sequentially, to 71.1 percent from 77.1 and 74.6 percent, respectively.
Additionally, the rate of net additions fell in the quarter.

The ARPU numbers are reported in a weird way, I’m not all that familiar with the style. The company takes the average number of users in the 1Q’18 and 1Q’17 and then sums up total revenue for Q2, Q3, Q4, and Q1’18. They then divide that revenue total, by the average number of subscribers to get ARPU. By the way, I had to look in the IPO prospectus to figure that out! But the number of subscribers in the 1Q’17 was only 14.2 million, so it makes the average way too low. It gives an average of 17.5 million accounts, on total platform revenue of $264 million, giving you an ARPU of $15.09, some rounding in there.

But do just a straight ARPU calculation of (Revenue/Users)/3 months, and you get $1.20 in the quarter, down from $1.47 the previous quarter. I dunno. You be the judge.

Anyway, the stock is trading pretty much where I predicted it would at $37. So where it goes from here is anyone’s guess.

roku

That is enough.

-Night

-Mike

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #micorsoft #technology #semis #tesla #roku #nvidia #micron 

 

Technology and Semis Are Leading The Stock Market Higher

Technology and Semis Are Leading The Stock Market Higher

Technology and Semis Are Leading The Stock Market Higher

Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own shares of TSLA

The S&P 500 had a solid day, rising by 35 bps, closing at 2,672. We gave back some of the gains late in the day around the time of the Iran headlines, but it may have been more of a gap fill. The chart shows that the S&P 500 is very close to the upper bound of the trading range so that the next few days will be telling as for whether we breakout and continue our rise, or we retrace back to the 2615 region.

spx

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Technology

Technology shares continued their advance, and the setup in the group continues to look positive. We’ll need to monitor and see if the XLK ETF continues to stay within the channel. The most important thing we are watching is that we continue a pattern of higher lows.

technology


Semis

It looks like the iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) may have also broken out, another positive. I’d like to see a strong follow-through tomorrow to confirm. I bought some calls for the SMH ETF on Friday anticipating a breakout in my trading account. Not something I often do, but sometimes old habits die hard. Hopefully, I will prove right on this one.


Microsoft

Microsoft has this sizeable ascending triangle forming, and that may mean shares set for a big breakout.

msft

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Amazon

Amazon shares continue to hover just below resistance around $1,620. The next day or so will likely be telling for that stocks future direction.

amazon


Nvidia

I wrote the other day, I saw Nvidia getting back to $250 after results, well it almost got there today! Does that mean we are going even higher? I’m not ready to change the call yet.

nvidia

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Roku

Roku had a solid rise of 5 percent today, with the stock hitting some resistance around $34. Implied vol is at almost 119% for the options set to expire in 11 days, according to Trade Alert. That is crazy.

roku


Tesla

Tesla shares got a boost after reports Elon Musk bought 33,000 shares of stock. The stock has now recovered all of its losses following the quarterly results.

Tesla registered another 5,009 VINS for the Model 3 today with the NHTSA. From April 23 through May 6, Tesla registered about 6,000 VINS. That would indicate they may be producing about 3,000 cars per week. We’ll see when the next batch of VINS are recorded, and the spacing between dates.

I have now seen three Model 3’s where I live on Long Island over the past week, so they are around, and I will continue to keep track.


Micron

The last time I wrote on Micron, I noted it looks like shares broke out. Well, I was embarrassed because the stock went down. I haven’t been wrong on Micron much in the past, and this time I was. But now the setup in the chart is becoming more evident, and a breakout appears to be coming. Look at that falling wedge in the chart, along with a solid uptrend. It means a reversal is bound to happen, and that means shares are getting ready to.

micron

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #micorsoft #technology #semis #tesla #roku #nvidia #micron 

Tesla Model 3 Tesla's Stock Price

Tesla Wants To Win And Is Focused On The Long-Term – That Is Not Bizarre

Tesla Wants To Win And Is Focused On The Long-Term – That Is Not Bizarre

Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own shares of Tesla

The headlines of a bizarre Tesla earnings call seem more bizarre than the actual call. Yes, Elon was a little bit more fired up than in other conference calls, but we have also seen him be that way on Twitter recently too. I’m not going to get into debates about Tesla stock valuation, because there is no middle ground, people either hate the stock or love it. I happen to love the stock, and the company, and what they are doing. Not because they are green, but because they are making awesome cars, that have awesome technology, and are a disrupting the entire auto industry, not to mention they are also a technology company reinventing the use of battery technology. And, people want the car, and it is flourishing.

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Reviewing the Call

The one thing from the call that seemed crystal clear to me, he is focused on driving profitability. At around the 1-hour mark in an exchange with Phil Lebeau of CNBC, he commented on becoming profitable, and not being a real company until they are profitable. Then a few minutes later,  Ben Kallo of Baird, asked a question about getting an update on when Tesla hit 3 or 4k model 3 ‘s per week. Elon appeared to be frustrated by the amount leaks coming from out of Tesla. Additionally, he made it clear he is not interested in the short-term nature of investors, but the longer-term goals.


Right

In some regards, he is right, because in the past I have often complained that there has been too much made about whether the company missed it deliveries numbers by 500 cars, or beat by 500 vehicles. Because at the end of the day, the only thing that matters is that the longer-term trend is continuing to rise, and to this point, Tesla has been able to do just that. Revenue has continued to rise, production has continued to increase, and the number of cars on the road is continually growing. In fact, in the past two days, I have seen a Model 3 at least once each day. The Model S and X I see multiple times a day and are just as commonplace as any other luxury car.


To some extent, it comes down to the long-term focus of the direction of the company overall, and not whether they hit some number or not a week early or a week late.

If anything, from listening to that call, it was the most firey I have ever heard him, and he seems more focused than ever on driving profitable, I don’t call that bizarre, I call that competitive and wanting to win.

You can call it whatever you want, but that is how I see it.

Night

-Mike

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

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#tesla #model3

4 Monster Stock Predictions For Earnings During The Week of April 30

4 Monster Stock Predictions For Earnings During The Week of April 30

4 Monster Stock Predictions For Earnings During The Week of April 30

Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own shares of TSLA and MA

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The week of April 30 will be the last big week for earnings, and the headliner will be Apple on Tuesday and Tesla on Wednesday. There are plenty of other companies, due up with MasterCard and Square. But let’s face it, Apple has a whole supply chain that is likely to move with it.

My record for this blog fell to 1 and 4 last week after getting only one of my five predictions right. I’m looking at this week to pull back to near even, or maybe pull ahead. If I can merely go 3 for 1. I’ll take it after last week’s misery.

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Apple

Analysts are looking Apple to report revenue jumped by 15.35 percent, to $61.02 billion, while earnings are seen rising by 27.8 percent to $2.69. It is hard betting against Apple because last quarter investors were awaiting a doomsday type of report, and the company still managed to beat estimates on both the top and bottom lines.

The Apple chart doesn’t look all that strong, and I could really see the stock retesting the $150 lows, from the middle of February, in the days and weeks to follow.

apple

But if anything it probably also presents an opportunity, because let’s face it, Apple is the dominant smartphone maker, and they have an ecosystem like no one else. It is also unlikely to see Apple make the same mistake twice, and my hunch is that that the launch of the new phones come September will be met with far better reception. There are plenty of people that skipped this latest upgrade cycle, like me, and will be in the market for the next iPhone soon enough.

The options set to expire on May 4, are not pricing in a big move in the stock, with a rise or fall of about 5 percent from the $162.50 strike price. It places the stock in a trading range between $154 and $171. The number of open puts at that the strike price outweighs the call by nearly 2 to 1, with 5,400 open put contracts, with only 2,300 open call contracts.

It is worth noting that shares are down about 11 percent from their 2018 highs, and it would not surprise me to see that most of the bad news has already been priced into Apple’s stock and that the company once again surprises the street and be better than expectations. I don’t think that means that Apple rallies on to new highs, but I do believe share will rise following results, only to continue trading in the range between say the upper 150’s to low 170’s.


Tesla

Tesla will report results on Wednesday after the close, and everyone will be watching that cash burn closely.  Forecasts are calling for 22 percent revenue growth in the first quarter to $3.3 billion, and a net loss of $3.52 per share. But more importantly, was that Tesla finished last quarter with $3.368 billion in cash, where will that cash balance be at the end of this quarter, good question.

As I noted at the start of the week, Tesla registered nearly 5,200 Model 3 VIN with the NHTSA on April 23, and another 250 on April 27. The big tell here will be if Tesla came back and registered more VIN’s on Monday.

The chart tells me nothing at this point, other than that the stock is trending downward. It looks like one gaint mess.

tesla

The long straddle options strategy set for expiration on May 4, is suggesting shares of Tesla rise or fall by about 8 percent falling results, placing the stock in a trading range between $271 and $318, a vast range. Open interest on both puts and call is minimal, just a couple hundred contracts on each side.

Again, it comes down to two things, the Model 3 ramp rate, and cash balance. I think Tesla surprises on both, and shares rise back towards the $320 following the results.

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Square

Square is set to report results on Wednesday as well, with analysts looking for the company to say that revenue rose by 43.8 percent to $293.07 million, while earnings are seen only climbing 7.2 percent to $0.05.

The options set to expire on May 4, are implying a rise or fall in Square of about 8.5 percent from the $48 strike price. It places the stock in a range between 44 and 52. Open interest for the week is thin, for that expiration date. The options set to expire on May 18, are paired, at the $48 strike at 6,000 each.  It suggests betting seems relatively even.

The chart tells a different story, one a stock that has been trending lower, with a relative strength index that is also trending lower. I think based on the chart, you should see Square continue to trade lower to the side of the trading range, towards $42, over the short-term.

square


MasterCard

The option set to expire on May 4 for MasterCard, are implying a rise or fall of fall of only 3.7 percent from the $177.50 strike price. It places the stock in a trading range of $171 to $184. But there are over 10,000 open call contracts up at the $185 strike price and at the cost of $0.40 per contract, they carry a breakeven price of about $185.40, nearly 5.5 percent higher than the stocks price of $175.94 as of Friday.

Analysts are looking for the company to report earnings rose by 23 percent to $1.24 per share, while revenue is seen jumping by 19 percent to $3.25 billion. Given Visa’s strong result, I would not be surprised to see MasterCard put up strong numbers as well.

The chart would suggest the stock rises to about $184 after results. The RSI is trending lower, but there also seem to be strong support in the RSI around 40, and I would not be surprised to see the RSI breakout of the downtrend, following the results.

mastercard

That’s it for now.

-Mike

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #earnings #april30 #apple #tesla #square #mastercard 

 

Earnings take center stage

It Is Time For Earnings To Take Center Stage

It Is Time For Earnings To Take Center Stage

Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own GOOGL

Earnings take center state with companies like Facebook reporting today, and tomorrow we get Microsoft, Intel, and Amazon. It doesn’t get much bigger, and Facebook didn’t disappoint.

But first…

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Broader Markets

The S&P 500 continued to bounce around today, with the index finishing the day slightly higher up about 20 bps. The index managed to stay on the breakout side of the of the downtrend we crossed on April 11, and it has acted as support, to this point.

spx

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VIX

Meanwhile, the VIX has remained on the other side of 20, and that is also a positive.

vix


Facebook

Facebook, may have put some questions to rest, with its strong quarterly results. The company reported daily active user was up 13 percent to 1.45 billion on average. The second quarter will give a better reading of active users post the data scandal, but my gut suggests that the impact will be minmal, at least from my usage, and I have noticed a slowdown in my friends ussage either.

Revenue for the quarter grew to $11.97 billion, versus estimates of $11.41 billion. EPS came in better than expected, at $1.69, vs. estimates of $1.35.  Shares were up about $12 in the after-hours trading around $171. I got the retest of $150; post-results wrong!


AMD

Another call I got completely wrong was AMD, shares of that one are jumping after hours as well, to around $10.70. The company reported better than expected earnings per share of $0.11 per share, vs. estimates of $0.09 per share. Meanwhile, revenue also topped estimates at $1.65 billion, vs. estimates of $1.57 billion. The company also sees revenue in the second quarter at $1.725 billion, better than estimates of $1.57 billion.

0 for 2, out of five earnings predictions, and if you count Alphabet from Monday, that makes 0 for 3.

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Tomorrow

Tomorrow Amazon, Microsoft, and Intel report. I think if Intel can put a good report on the back of Texas Instruments, and Qualcomm it will give the semis a good jolt. The group has been walloped in recent days and needs to some positive newsflow.


Boeing

Boeing had a nice bounce today following its strong results, but the stock action didn’t impress me so much. Shares where up about 4 percent, basically regain the lost ground from yesterday.

boeing


Cat

To this point, Caterpillar has been able to stay above support at $143, and I think that is a huge positive. It is a critical level for the stock.

cat

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Yield

Finally, the 10-year got to a significant level today, right around 3.04 percent. We could see a considerable acceleration higher if we rise much above current levels.

That’s it.

-Mike

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #stockmarket #tesla #chips #stocks #model3 #netflix #verizon #ibm 

It Is Simple Some Stocks Are Just Overvalued, It Is Obvious!

It Is Simple Some Stocks Are Just Overvalued, It Is Obvious!

It Is Simple Some Stocks Are Just Overvalued, It Is Obvious!

Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own shares of GOOGL and UL 

Volatility continues in 2018, and again the narrative around the reasons for the volatility continues to shift. Earnings have not been too bad so far, but still, the significant results continue to roll out the rest of this week and next. So it is yet to be seen what direction earnings will keep sending the market. But in some cases it is crystal clear why stocks are going, they are merely overvalued, and no I am not talking about the FANG’s, nor most of the Techs. I’m talking about staples and industrials like Boeing, McDonalds and Home Depot.

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Wait, What?

Listening to the TV all afternoon, I got the impression that investors seemed surprised that 2018 would be the peak regarding earnings growth from a percentage standpoint. It has always seemed fairly obvious to me that 2018, earnings growth was being aided higher by the one-year tax benefit, and that growth would return to “normal” growth rates in 2019. The rate of growth in 2019 is undoubtedly nothing to dismiss, because as of right now that growth is expected to be around 10 percent, and with an S&P 500 trading at roughly 15.5 times 2019 earnings estimates, the stock market seems relatively cheap.

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Economic Slowdown?

To this point, I see no evidence of an economic slowdown. A company like Unilever saw pretty good growth in its first quarter with sales growth and volume growth of 3.4 percent, which again is a pretty healthy number for a company of its size, while emerging markets grew at a much faster pace.


Just Overvalued

I think in some cases, there are merely stocks that advanced so much ahead of these big earnings expectations, now it is time to sell the news.

BA Chart

BA data by YCharts

Companies like Home Depot, Boeing, McDonald’s, Lockheed Martin, Caterpillar were all up tremendous amount from the start of 2017 through the end of January 2018, much more than the S&P 500.  Boeing even now is up nearly 112 percent since the beginning of 2017! 112 percent! It and the others like it are trading at some of their highest earnings multiples in some time, and in some cases, those companies still need to see further multiple contractions.


Slowing Growth

The market is also looking to the future, and while Caterpillar is seen growing earnings in 2018 by over 36 percent, those earnings are seen rising by only 13 percent next year, while Boeings earnings growth is seen slowing from 37 percent to just 18 percent next year, while revenue is seen climbing only 5 percent! Better keep buying back that stock or improving margins. Home Depot is no different going from 27 percent to only 7 percent.

BA PE Ratio (Forward 1y) Chart

BA PE Ratio (Forward 1y) data by YCharts

How do you feel about paying 20 times one-year forwards earnings for growth in the mid to high single digits? Yeah, they are expensive. I have been saying this about McDonald’s for quite some time, with its monster earnings growth of about 14 percent in 2018, on an 8 percent drop in revenue! Give me a break; the stock is up nearly 30 percent! And it is no different for any of the others, and these are just a few.  The Banks may be another group in the same situation.

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Google or McDonald’s

Right now it would seem the selling is indiscriminate, but the cream will rise to the top, because companies like Alphabet are seen growing by 22 percent in 2018, slowing to 17 percent in 2019, on 11.5 percent revenue growth,  while trading at only 21 times, so I ask,  would you rather own Alphabet or McDonald’s? Alphabet every day of the week hands down.

If McDonald’s can trade at 19 times earnings than Alphabet must be the steal of a lifetime.


Moving on then to other topics….

VIX

The VIX got right back to nearly 20 today, before backing off. Remember 20 has been a support/resistance line, and the fact that it backed off is at that level is good.

vix

The S&P 500 also managed to find a bounce at least for today off its downtrend.

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Technology

The technology earnings are going to be extemely important the rest of this week, because the setup in the technology ETF XLK looks really bad. I’m hoping that is not a head and shoulder formation, because if it is then a fall back to $61 or further could be in the cards. With all the big results this week, those results could be a tipping point for the group.

technology

The one piece of good news so far is that Texas Insrutuments appeared to report solid results and for now at least the stock is finding a bounce.


Facebook

The big one tomorrow will be Facebook, and the stock melted today, falling below support at $161.50. It could be headed back to retesting the lows around $150. The chart clearly shows the stock was unable to rise above resisntacnce around $168.

facebook


Apple

Apple fell again today, and now sits at $163, and the company still has a week to go before results. Apple’s results can not come soon enough.

Micron

Micron staged a head fake breakout on April, 18 and it has been nothing but down since that time. Is there a rise in Micron’s shares in the future? I’m not sure, but the chart looks pretty weak, at current levels, and more declines may be in store.

micron

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Amazon

Amazon shares continue to trend lower too, and they are expected to report Thursday after the close. The chart like the others looks fairly weak. The earnings will matter  a great deal when they are released. We can see we back to within $1440 on the chart, and that again is an important level for the stock.

amazon

That is it!

-Mike

 

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #stockmarket #tesla #chips #stocks #model3 #netflix #verizon #ibm 

Chip stocks continue to sink, tesla register 5,000 model 3's

Chip Stocks Continue To Sink, Tesla Registers 5,000 Model 3’s

Chip Stocks Continue To Sink, Tesla Registers 5,000 Model 3’s

Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own shares of VZ, TSLA, NFLX, and GOOGL

The S&P 500 managed to finish the day flat, and for the most part, this 2,670 level on the S&P 500 continues to hold.

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Chip Stocks

The semi companies continue to struggle, with the SOXX down by over 1.3 percent, but some stocks were down by far more. The chart on the Soxx ETF surely doesn’t look great, and the big test for the ETF comes around $167.

chips

The relative strength index is still trending lower, and unless Intel, Qualcomm, and Texas Instruments can say something more positive, it might hard to turn the direction of this group.

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Verizon

Verizon reports results tomorrow, and what will be the most thing that comes from the report? Well, any commentary the companies give around the upgrade cycle of smartphones will be interesting. Remember it was Verizon that told us last quarter, that they saw an elongation of the upgrade cycle. That will give us a good sense of where we stand with the chip stocks until we find out details on next iPhone launch from Apple.


Tesla

Tesla registered over 5,100 new VIN with NHTSA, which is the highest total I can remember. This comes after the company shut production for a week. Again, we will need to see what that number the next time they register VIN’s, and just how much time has passed. That could help us get a handle on the weekly production rate.

 


Netflix

Did Netflix the gap today? Maybe, it sure was impressive where the stock stopped falling and where it stabilized.

netflix


IBM

IBM shares have struggled since its quarterly results, for apparent reason, but the stock is pretty close to having an even bigger fallout.

Ibm

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Alphabet

Finally, Alphabet reported strong results beating on both the top and bottom line. But for now, investors are not happy enough to send shares higher in the after-hours. The stock is mostly flat at that moment. I haven’t had the chance to dig through the numbers yet, but when I do will be sure to share any feedback, if I should anything worth noting.

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #stockmarket #tesla #chips #stocks #model3 #netflix #verizon #ibm 

banks bets blame netflix tesla amazon

Banks, Bets, Breakouts, and Blame – Freaky Friday


Banks, Bets, Breakouts, and Blame – Freaky Friday

It was another exciting day in the stock market. Nah not really,  it was mostly uneventful. Technicals continue to dominate trading, with the S&P 500 testing resistance at 2,672, and testing support at 2,647, at the end of the day, we closed at 2,656.

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S&P 500

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Taking A Look The Banks, And Prepping For Earnings Season

Banks

As of right now, it would seem that the financials will not be the group to lead stocks higher. JP Morgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo reported results and all three were down despite posting good results. It could be a combination of things at play, expectations were for better, all the good news has been baked in, or investors are concerned about slowing earnings growth. It doesn’t matter what the reason was, but what seems to be crystal clear to me at least, is that the banks will not be the group to lead this market higher.financials


Yields

I think for the most part the treasury yields on the long-end of the curve are not giving in and are refusing to rise, and again I think that is a function of the low yield environment globally. The Fed can control the short-end of the curve, but the Fed has no control over the longer-end the yield curve. As long as the free market controls the long-end of the curve, I think the yield curve may continue to flatten, and that is very bad for the banks and interest income.

The spread between German and US bond is fairly steep at over 2.3 percent, and that is likely a problem

yields

In fact, I continue to believe the 10-year is going back to 2.6 percent.

Amazon

Amazon failed to stay above 1,440. Again, bad!

amazon

Nvidia

So now, Citron is betting Jim Cramer $230k that Nvidia’s stock will be below $230 in 12 months.

All I can say to Citron is that Nvidia is a tough stock to bet against. I have never once traded a share of Nvidia long or short. But I have sure written plenty on it, and I for some time I was extremely negative on it, probably from around $100 to $200, :). Every time I thought Nvidia would crack, or revenue and earnings would slow, they didn’t. To this point, it still may be easy to bet shares of Nvidia continue to rise than to bet they shall fall. Good luck to those two, I’ll remain an onlooker.


Netflix

Netflix shares broke out today, and it managed to close above the downtrend. That is a positive, considering the stock is heading into results Monday after the close. The stock got a couple more upgrades today as well. I will put a pre-earnings look on Sunday, again.

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Tesla

Elon Musk was busy on Twitter today, first challenging the economist and claiming Tesla will be cash flow positive in third and fourth quarters, and then taking the blame for excessive automation causing problems in production.

I have no idea if Tesla will be cash flow positive or not by the third quarter. Lets first see how the first and second quarters go.

The one thing I do know is that that stock can’t get over $303.

tesla

Oil continues to rise and is getting closer to our $75 target.

oil

That’s it, see you Sunday! No commentary tomorrow, I’m taking the day off!

-Mike

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #stockmarket #sp500 #amazon #tesla #nvidia #netflix #jpmorgan #banks

 

 

technology stocks

Technology Stocks Are Getting Ready To Go Higher, Plus Much More


Technology Stocks Are Getting Ready To Go Higher

There were a couple of positive developments today. First, the S&P was higher, by 83bps, and closed at 2,663. Next, the close above that pesky resistance level at 2,660 we had been watching. Today also established that 2,672 is now the next resistance area. The last two times the S&P 500 got to 2,672 it was followed by two nasty downdrafts, resulting in a fall of about 3 percent back to 2,600, each time. A rise above 2,672 would be an immensely positive sign for a continuation of the most recent rally.

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S&P 500


Technology Stocks

A new trend line was born today for the technology sector, XLK, and for the first time in a while, the technology sector has a direction other than down. $67.10 continues to be a resistance level, but should it rise above resistance to say $67.50 it gives the ETF a perfect shot of filling the gap at $69.25.

technology

Nvidia

Nvidia looks to be heading back towards $245.

nvda

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Consumer Stocks

Discretionaries are continuing to struggle after hitting resistance around $102.

consumer

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Amazon

For right now, Amazon maybe the only stock capable of lifting the entire group. First, because it has a nearly 20 percent weighting in the ETF, second because today it closed above $1,440, a mild positive. There are still plenty of hurdles for Amazon to overcome; the most obvious is that the stock needs to stay $1,440.

amazon


Netflix

Netflix appears to be setting up for a breakout towards $322. The company reports results on Monday after the close; I will have a closer look at it over the weekend.

nflx


BANKS

Tomorrow will be a big day for the banks, with JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup all reporting before the open.

JP Morgan is slightly breaking out

jp morgan

But the setup in Citi doesn’t look nearly as strong.

citigroup

If the banks want to be a leading sector in the stock market, tomorrow will be the day they can prove they are capable are leading or not.

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Acadia

Why is Acadia not back to $22 already, after the BS story from Monday? I was shocked to see the FDA made a statement on it.

The stocks downdraft proves once again you can’t believe everything you read, and that understanding what you are invested is so extremely important.

At this point, I’d be happy if we filled the first gap at $22, but the one at $30 would be a whole lot better.

acad


Tesla

You know, I was gonna end after Acadia, but then I saw this stupid analyst comment that Tesla is going to fall $84, because, get this, “increasing competition.” Are there no cars sold today? Is Tesla the only automaker in the whole world? Of course not.

I’m sorry, but Tesla has competition today and has had competition since the moment Elon Musk thought about making a car. A car is a car, and the thought that because Audi or Mercedes is going to start making an electric car, people are suddenly going to stop buying Tesla’s seems crazy to me. If someone wants to buy a Mercedes, they can get one right now. I do not think the world has become entrenched enough in the thought process of buying only green cars, that everyone is now running to Tesla. Besides, just how green are electric cars? The energy to power the battery needs to come from somewhere.  They are undoubtedly better than gas but come on; you still need the energy.

By the way, once again, the proof is the Chevy Bolt, how many cars did Chevy sell so far in 2018? A crappy 4,375.  How many in 2017 total? 23,297. Btw, they cost nearly 3 times less than a Model S, so why not 3 times the sales if the electric part matter so much?

People are buying a brand; they aren’t buying it because of the engine or motor type.

Good luck tomorrow

-Mike

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #stockmarket #sp500 #amazon #tesla #acadia #nvidia #netflix #jpmorgan #banks

netflix subscriber growth tesla model 3

Netflix Subscriber Growth and Tesla Model 3 Ramp May Be Accelerating


Netflix Subscriber Growth and Tesla Model 3 Ramp May Be Accelerating

Attention will soon be turning towards Netflix, which is expected to report results on Monday, April 16. Analysts are looking earnings to climb by nearly 56 percent for the quarter, while revenue is expected to rise by almost 40 percent, versus last year.

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Netflix Subscriber Growth

When it comes to subscribers, the company is guiding for 123.93 million, making for net adds of 6.35 million. When using Google trends, and Netflix subscriptions as a search term, we find that search term has been trend higher in recent weeks. Although it is not nearly as high as around Christmas, the trend is noticeable moving higher, and the keyword is much more widely search today, than a year ago.

(Google)

India?

The biggest interest, to no surprise, is surging from overseas.  India seems to be breaking out, according to the table from Google, and India is a potentially a huge market for Netflix.

(Google)

The results will surely be important for Netflix when the company reports next Monday the on April 16.


Tesla

Tesla Model 3 production continues to ramp-up according to the latest number of VINS reports to NHTSA.

Interestingly on March 23, Tesla registered 2,655 VINS, and then a week later they registered 2,041 on March 30. In its delivery report, Tesla produced 2,020 Model 3 from March 26 through April 2 and noted it planned to build 2,000 more the following week. So perhaps the number of VINS registered each week serves as pretty good guide to what the weekly production rate is. Although not perfect, because Tesla does skip over VINS numbers.


New VINS

Tesla registered nearly 4,800 VINS on April 5 and quickly turned around and registered another 2,900 VINS on April 6. Has production climbed over 3,000 per week, over the past week? Not sure about that, but it would certainly be interest to see if Tesla comes back and registers more VINS next week, giving a sense of a trend. But regardless it would suggest that production is accerlating.

Another week of strong VIN registration may be enough to catch the bears attention, and for the short-sellers to really start sweating.

Well, get all our answers soon enough.

-Mike

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Disney’s Stock Seen Rising by 17%

Qualcomm Options Traders Looking for 13% Decline

Netflix Options Traders Are Looking for a Big Rebound

Why the VIX Index Is a Bullish Sign for Stocks

Apple Stock Faces 10% Short-Term Pullback

4 Consumer Stocks That May Plunge to New Lows

Broadcom’s Battered Stock Poised for 12% Rebound

Boeing’s Stock Seen Falling Into Bear Market

IBM Traders See Stock Plunging 20%

3 Hot Biotech Stocks Facing Sharp Declines

Under Armour’s Stock Still Has Further to Fall

Intel Traders Face Big Losses As Chipmaker’s Stock Drops

Why Facebook Stock May Rebound By 25%

Amazon’s Stock May Plunge 10% Further

Tech Stocks’ Growth Engine Faces a Big Slowdown

3 Big Biotech Stocks Poised for More Declines

Why Chip Stocks May Rebound to Record Highs

Take-Two Stock Seen Rising 20% on E-Sports Demand

Square’s Soaring Stock Is Due for a Correction

Nike’s Stock Bulls May Get Burned

Why AMD Options Traders Are Bearish Long Term

Improving Earnings Will Push Stock Prices Higher

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #tesla #model3 #netflix #subscribers

Stocks Breaking Critical Support And Could Be At Risk Of Falling Further


Stocks Breaking Critical Support And Could Be At Risk Of Falling Further

The stocks market recent bout of volatility is not only exhausting but confusing as well. It started in early February on inflation concerns, it moved to rising yields, to trade war fears, to Facebook, to Amazon, and now back to trade wars. So which is it? Not sure. But it does tell us one thing. The market and buyers are extremely fragile, and the slightest bit of negative news is enough to get traders to dump their shares.

It was January 29, that I warned stocks were looking toppy going into quarterly results, and for the most part those results were strong. But yet they weren’t enough to keep equity prices from dropping. But as I had noted back then, some of the prices had gotten way ahead of themselves. After the market bottom in early February, technology stocks took off once again, with shares of Amazon and Micron surpassing their previous highs, as analysts upgraded and raised their price targets.

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During the latest round of selling stocks likes Google, Netflix, Micron, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft have managed to hold on and avoided breaking some key levels of importance. But in Friday’s commentary, I noted concerns, and cracks started emerging, and that was extremely worrisome to me.

Nvidia

Nvidia, which has held extremely well at $218 finally broke, and that should be a concern.

 

The RSI has been trending lower since peaking in mid-February over 70, and volume has been tapering off in recent days. If the stock bounces Monday and is unable to get above $219, it is likely a good sign that next move is lower to around $204.


Apple

Apple share failed at resistance around $174 moving below support at $169. If that isn’t a crack then I do not know what one is. I think downside is limited here to maybe $160ish.

 

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Biogen

Biogen shares continue to melt, with no end in sight, it might not stop falling until $250.


Incyte

Incyte totally blew-up on Friday after reporting negative results on its trial for one its cancer drugs in development in combination with Merck’s Keytruda. This is just another example of why the Biotech sector has been so terrible in 2018.


Nektar

It took Nektar down with it.

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GE

I still think GE is heading to a $10 handle.

Blackberry

Blackberry cracked and could be headed towards $10.

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Microsoft

Microsoft held support at $91.50 until it no longer could. Not good.

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Micron

Micron held $49.75 until it cracked as well.

Google

But at least one stock is still holding on. It is the lone wolf here.

-Mike

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #tech #technology #tesla #micron  #nvidia #google #blackberry #ge 

 

 

Nvidia, Micron, Apple, Amazon Showing Serious Cracks


Nvidia, Micron, Apple, Amazon Showing Serious Cracks

Despite all the market turmoil, for which the reason seems to change on a daily basis, the S&P 500 is only down 1.38 percent on the year. I think that is the more important thing to focus on, and not the daily swings of 2 percent. Becuase at the end of the day despite all the stock market volatility, the stock market has virtually gone nowhere!

So while the reasons for the market going lower seem to change, some things have held constant, until today, and those minor changes have caught my attention.

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Technology

First, the XLK breakout from the other day is being severely tested, with the downtrend now in play again.

technology

Biotech

The IBB is now below the February lows.

biotech

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Financials

The XLF failed in a big way at resistance, around $28.

xlf


Nvidia

Nvidia broke support at $218 and closed around $214.50, and for the first time in all the chaos shares look at serious risk of falling towards $200.

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Micron

Micron opened lower and retook $49.75, and like Nvidia, it gave way and closed well below support, and that is a bad sign too, with the potential for a further decline towards $46.75.

micron


Amazon

Amazon failed twice at resistance now around $1440 level, and I continue to think this one trades lower.


Apple

Apple closed below support at $169.

So Confused

Obviously, the market is far more significant than these four stocks, and at this point, it seems hard to predict what the potential next hurdle or hiccup comes in the markets way over the next week. It seems that everytime a bit of positive momentum builds it is meet with some obstacle that sucks the energy out of it.  From “trade wars,” to Amazon and the Post office, the FED, inflations, and yields. The stock market thus far this year seems like a moving target, and for the first time in about three years, I am having a hard time getting the general trend right, and that is bothering me.

But, the good news comes next Friday when the narrative will change to earnings. The only left to be to determined, will earnings push stock prices higher or will it become just one more thing the market can add to list of worries.

More this weekend.

-Mike

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #tech #technology #tesla #micron  #nvidia #jobs #bls #sp500 #xlk

 

Stock Market Rally Continues, Jobs Report May Be Non-Event


Stock Market Rally Continues, Jobs Report May Be Non-Event

In the midday commentary, I noted that S&P 500 was running into some resistance around 2,675, and that level stood firm in the afternoon session. The job report tomorrow will prove critical as to whether the S&P 500 advances further, or suffer a setback.

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spx

Jobs Reports

The job numbers have been trend higher on the BLS, with y/y gains accelerating, and I do not expect that to change in tomorrow’s report. In fact, the strong ADP results support my belief that we will continue to see meaningful job acceleration.

In fact, I continue to believe we can see meaningful job creation, without the unemployment rate falling, as the U6 number is still rather high, historically.

The labor participation continues to be extremely low, and as workers continue to come back to the labor market, I expect that participation rate to continue to rise. Remember the U3 “headline” measure of unemployment is a lousy indicator to measure true unemployment, as it counts those recently unemploy and actively looking for work. Not those that gave up looking 6-12 months ago.

It is also the reason, why wage inflation is likely to stay in check when the reading comes out. I would not be surprised to see it lower this coming month than last.

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Technology

We can see that the technology ETF XLK failed multiple times around $66, we are going to want to see the technology ETF break above that level of resistance.

technology


Tesla

Tesla managed to get above the $303.5 level as I noted earlier in the day, and again that is a positive for the stock. The next big event for investors to worry about will be the burn rate when the company reports results sometime at the end of April or beginning of May.

tesla


Nvidia

I know the Citron tweeted today about Nvidia going sub $200, but for now, the market seems to disagree. $218 has been like a rock through a lot of market turmoil, and I’d be surprised if $218 cracks, something fundamentally would need to change, such as an earnings miss or poor guidance. But right now, I’m not seeing a move below $200 happening.

nvda

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Micron

It is the same thing with Micron, with the Sell rating by UBS. The area around $49.75 still seems stable, and it is going take more than a lone wolf downgrade to get this thing below that price.

micron

Qualcomm has seen some interesting option volume lately and could be pointing to a decline of 13 percent in the stock.

The opposite could be said with Netflix, as traders are betting shares rise over $320.

Good Luck Tomorrow

-Mike

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #tech #technology #tesla #micron  #nvidia #jobs #bls #sp500 #xlk

Tesla Model 3 Tesla's Stock Price

Levels To Watch, Midday Update For April 5


Levels To Watch, Midday Update For April 5

I wrote in the commentary last night the next test for the S&P 500 would come at 2,675, and today it got to a touch below, before pulling back some. There is a gap that needs to be filled at 2,647, so don’t lose hope should the rally retrace back to 2,650 over the balance of today.

S&P 500


VIX

The VIX has fallen below support at 20, and it is likely heading lower towards 18.

vix

Technology

The technology ETF XLK is continuing to breakout and is stalling for now at resistance around $66. A rise above $66, sends it on quickly to $67.

technoloy

Netflix

Netflix shares have broken out over $295, and I think that leads to further gains.

netflix


Facebook

I drew in a new resistance line in Facebook at $161, and that to this point has held shares from breaking out further. A rise above $161.50, likely pushes it on towards $166.

facebook

Tesla

Tesla shares have rocketed higher, but $303.50 is going to be a critical level to watch. That level served as strong support level for a long time, and now it will act as significant resistance levels. Its need to get over $304.

tesla

Amazon

Amazon is back above $1440, and a sizeable gap to fill back to near $1500.

amazon

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Micron

Yeah, Micron got a downgrade today, but look at that chart, right back to support at $49.75. It is holding, that is a positive.

Micron

See you tonight!

 

Mike

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

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#midday #levels #amazon #micron #tesla #netflix #tesla #vix

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

stock market rally

Stock Market Sees Big Rally, This Time It Maybe For Real


Stock Market Sees Big Rally, This Time It Maybe For Real

I think it is time for the overnight equity future traders, to hang up the cleats and put the jersey away and call it a career. Either that or the Algo’s need some severe tweaking for the keywords they are searching in the headlines. It seems the direction of the futures on these big down days should not be trusted and should be treated as suspect.

But the clues were all around us before the first tick took place that the sell-off would not last.

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Clue #1 – China

The first clue, the Shanghai Composite last night hardly budged on the news of the new tariffs. In fact, the algo’s in China appears to play the same game of fill the gap, as our algo’s. Are the duties imposed by China, and those imposed by the US only detrimental to the US economy, and immune to China? Of course not.

shanghai

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Clue #2 -S&P Futures Trader Wins Big, The Rest Should Go Home

Clue #2 came around 7 am when a huge block went off in the S&P 500 futures. Pretty much near the lows, and the rest was pretty much history. This same “institution, trader” has now pulled off a similar trade a few times since the February lows, and each time the market has rallied. My guess is that it is the same institution because it has happened around the same time of the day on each occurrence.

S&P 500

I even posted a tweet about it, as soon I saw it!

Technology

Remember I said I wasn’t getting fooled on the next rally until I saw the XLK breakout, well today it did!

technology

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S&P 500

The S&P 500 broke out above two downtrends. The next test comes around 2,675, then 2,690.

S&P 500 stock market


Google

Google broke out too, a rebound back to 1,080 could be on the way.

google stock market

Facebook

Facebook has seen $151 hold like a rock on multiple occasions, I still think it moves up to $166.

facebook

Intel

Intel bounced right off support and looks like it going over $50.

intel


Micron

Micron broke out too and is likely turning back towards $56.

micron

 

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Tesla

While the Tesla bears had their moment of glory, and just like that, it’ is gone. Sorry guys, hope you enjoyed it. tesla

Remember to watch out for those future traders tomorrow morning, but at least the next time you will be looking for confirmation in other markets.

Good Luck!

Mike

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Tags: #sp500 #tech #technology #facebook #google #tesla #micron #intel #futures #equities #stocks

 

 

 

 

Stock Market Volatility May Soon Fade Away


Stock Market Volatility May Soon Fade Away

I wrote in the midday commentary that for the morning rally to have any legs the S&P 500 need to rise above 2,610 and the XLY to rise above $99.40, and we got both going into the close, with the S&P 500 closing at 2,614, and the XLY closing at $99.68.

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The big breakout came in the final hour of the day, as sentiment changed when Bloomberg reported the White House isn’t taking steps to take action against Amazon, the market started ripping higher. The S&P 500 passed the crucial first test, rising above a downtrend and support which converged at 2,600. The next test comes at 2,633, but first, the S&P 500 will need to stay above 2,600.

S&P 500

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Technology

Unlike last week, I am not getting duped by the market again, until I get a confirmation breakout in the Technology ETF, XLK. That breakout has not occurred yet, and if it should come tomorrow a rise above $65.50 will be needed.

technology

Facebook tested the lows of last week, held, and rebounded.

facebook

Alphabet shares continue to hold the $1,000 level. Did shares breakout again today, or do I have to redraw my line?

google

Tesla

Tesla reported good delivery numbers today and got pretty close to that guidance target, much better than the bears had been hoping for. But I think the critical piece is that company is still saying it will not need to raise any capital this year. Well see about that, part, but for now, the stock could move back into the $300’s.

tesla

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VIX

The VIX continues to move lower, and I’m beginning to think the reason why it hasn’t elevated to higher levels, for the most, the traders do not believe this volatility will last.

vix

S&P 500 put volume hasn’t been all that elevated, in fact, it appears relatively in line with the past year, except for the one spike in February.

SPX Put Volume Chart

SPX Put Volume data by YCharts

The put to call ratio in the S&P 500, isn’t even high or outside of the what appears to be normal levels over the past year.

SPX Put/Call Ratio Chart

SPX Put/Call Ratio data by YCharts

It would suggest that all this craziness something that may be coming to any relatively soon.  Tomorrow will give us a good clue as to whether that is the case or not.

Good Luck

-Mike

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Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own NFLX, GOOGL, TSLA

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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #tech #technology #facebook #google #netflix #vix #tesla

8 Stocks and 3 Sectors To Watch For The Week Of April 2!


8 Stocks and 3 Sectors To Watch For The Week Of April 2!

The first quarter ended on a positive note, with the S&P 500 finishing Thursday higher by about 1.4 percent. It appears for now that a double bottom has been put into place on the index when looking at the intraday charts, and we are going to want to see the momentum carry through on Monday morning.

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Sectors To Watch:

Technology

The technology ETF ($XLK) managed to finish just below its uptrend line, which again is disappointing, but still, the overall longer-term trend continues to be higher. We need to watch for the XLK to continue to hold the longer-term uptrend, currently around $64. That is the most important level to watch.

technology


Biotech

Biotech continues along its upward trend as well, that has been in place since last year. Additionally, a symmetrical triangle appears to be forming, and that could be a sign the group is gearing up for a break out at some point in the second-quarter, and perhaps a strong second-half of 2018.

biotech


Semis

The semiconductors continue to look strong as well and are entrenched in an upward direction as well.

semiconductors

Stocks To Watch:

Facebook

Facebook is still the stock to watch in this market, and for now, the trend in Facebook is higher, and like the broader S&P 5oo, it appears a double pattern is in place, and that is good. A big test comes at $166, that is the next resistance level.

Facebook


Google

Google managed to clear two downtrends on Thursday, and that is a positive. $1078 is the next level to watch.

google

Amazon

Amazon has a big gap to fill back at $1,500, so look for a rise. But should Amazon fail at $1,500, I think it moves lower, towards $1250.

amazon

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Netflix

Netflix closed right at resistance around $295. Which way does it go? I think it goes higher, especially as the earnings preview notes start coming out.

netflix

AMD

AMD found a nice bounce off of support at $9.80, a bounce to $10.70 is the next level to watch.

amd


Micron

Micron also managed to turn higher around support at $52.25, and an increase to $55.60 is the next level to watch over the short-term.

mu

Twitter

Twitter filled the giant gap last week, and that means you should watch for the stock to start working higher, the next big test comes at $36.75

twitter

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Tesla

It doesn’t get any bigger than Tesla this week, with first quarter delivery numbers, and of course the Model 3 ramp update. The Bloomberg Model 3 shows Tesla trending towards producing about 2,200 cars per week. While the company also registered about 2,050 VIN’s in a seven day period through March 30. My gut says the press release reads something like, “In the final few days of the quarter, Tesla was producing cars at a rate that would equal 2,500 Model 3’s per week”.

The stock found a very big bounce off of it long-term support around $245, and that means the next test comes around $290. Watch for a bounce this week, if those Model 3 numbers come around 2,500. We should know our answer no later than after the close of trading on April 3.

tesla

Good Luck!

-Mike

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Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own TSLA, NFLX, GOOGL

Photo credit via Flickr

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC.  Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.

Tags: #sp500 #tech #technology #semiconductors #biotech #micron #tesla #amazon #facebook #google #amd #netflix #twitter